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Fishy Charts 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

John Sides, Chris Cilizza, Jonathan Chait, and Mark Murray react to the Pew poll on trust in government.

Doug Schoen & Pat Caddell offer Democrats advice in how to avoid a bloodbath in 2010; Ezra Klein advises Democrats to avoid Schoen & Caddell; Ed Kilgore has more.

Chris Bowers notes a record number of Senators are underwater in primary contests.

Chris Bowers, Renard Sexton and John O'Sullivan consider the shift in UK election polling; Sexton discusses selection bias in UK polling (Part 1, Part 2).

Nate Silver says Rasmussen's likely voter model alone does not explain their house effect.

Patrick Murray discusses how seemingly conflicting poll results might be a sign of nuance in public opinion.

Frank Newport charts declining confidence in big banks.

Lymari Morales shares fast facts on climate change from Gallup.

PPP tries a split form experiment to test a question on offshore drilling.

Carl Bialik examines uncertainty in government economic statistics; more here.

The BBC finds world opinion warming to the United States (via Sullivan).

D'Vera Cohn notes most Tea party supporters say they have or will return their Census forms.

Jim Geraghty points out an interesting interpretation of a Florida senate poll.

Junk Charts critiques a fishy chart.

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

The Debate on this website, even though people have strong opinions and defending various ideologies can get pretty heated, most everyone on here is quite civil and level-headed.

I have been on some forums on facebook that tend to be mostly progressives, and I have seen some twisted angry people who disagree with us who use 4 letter words and make no sense whatsoever. They crash these web sites.

I got into a discussion on the Conservative Christianity Today web site, and I questioned their reasoning and views and they questioned mine, but nobody insulted each other. Of course most everyone disagreed with me, but they showed good character.

I get on Obama web sites, and I find birthers and people who use very hateful language. In comparison to others, I am quite impressed.

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GARY WAGNER:

Ed Kilgore is just one more prime example of the democrats imploding. He's just one more liberal willing to put on the blinders and claim that the tea party movement is nothing but a bunch of angry white republicans and that the democats should just ignore them because they probably watch fox news (does he know that more people watch fox news than all the other news channels combined?) I like that advice but then again, I want to see the maximum destruction for democrats this fall.

What I found interesting in Nate Silver's piece trying to discredit rasmussen was actually how bad some of the liberal pollster's house effects are. ABC/Post, ARG, CNBC, Franklin & Marshall, Kaiser, and Newsweek all show people identifying themselves as democrats ahead of republicans by a double digit margin. These are much further off the pollster.com composite average than Rasmussen. Why doesn't he attack Newsweek for using a 13% margin of democrats over republicans or kaiser for their 12.8%? That's 6 points over the average but rasmussen is 4 points below the average.

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Farleftandproud:

I agree that the tea party people are not all Republicans, but I doubt there are many Democrats there. Perhaps some from the south.
I can't prove this. What I can prove however is I have seen about 4 people at tea party rallies on tv coverage who are non-white. I won't say they are racist, but they are angry and they are white.

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