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FL: 2010 Senate (PPP 8/21-22)

Topics: Florida , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/21-22/10; 567 likely voters, 4.15 margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Florida

2010 Senate
37% Rubio (R), 36% Crist (i), 13% Greene (D), 4% Snitker (L) (chart)
40% Rubio (R), 32% Crist (i), 17% Meek (D), 3% Snitker (L) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 42 / 44 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jeff Greene: 19 / 40
Kendirck Meek: 25 / 35
Marco Rubio: 40 / 37
Alex Snitker: 15 / 22

 

Comments
StatyPolly:

From PPP release.

"In PPP’s last poll of frequent voters in July, Crist led Rubio 38-29-13 over Greene and
35-29-17 over Meek. But Republicans now have a 44-42 turnout edge in the likely
electorate, versus a 40-40 tie in July, while the share of unaffiliateds has decreased from
20% to 14%. The Republicans who do plan to show up are even more unified around
Rubio than previously."

Big turnaround.

____________________

Bob in SJ:

Meek is probably going to win the primary, so it dosen't look so good for Crist. Maybe he'll drop out and endorse Meek.

Anyone in Florida seen any ads for the general? Or has all of the oxygen been sucked up by the primaries?

____________________

Field Marshal:

I believe i am on record saying that Rubio will win this easily because the Dems will break their support for Crist without a firm commitment from him on caucusing with the Dems. The Reps who supported Crist will do the same thing but to a much lesser extent. Still think Rubio wins by 9.

____________________

gabe:

I am with you Field Marshall. The polls in Florida have differed mainly along the lines of voter models. In every poll taken Rubio has either been tied or ahead among likely voters while trailing among registered voters. Add in Meek as the Dem candidate and a lot of Dem voters switch back to Meek leaving Crist's base being among independents and moderate Dems. Not enough to win.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Ras just released MO: 54-41 Blunt.

Ras had Blunt up 7 less than 2 weeks ago.

____________________

tjampel:

Meek finally put Ads up and has generated some limited enthusiasm among Dems, and, as PPP says, Crist has bled support among Republicans who were wavering; they're all falling towards Rubio.

No way Meek drops out; also the Dem establishment really has no choice but to support him at least on the surface.

Crist's path to victory consists in taking the following steps. I see no other way:

1. Making it clear to Dems that he's going to look after their interests. He can accomplish this by sending strong signals that he will NOT caucus with the Republicans, and taking no position on whom he'll caucus with. This is cause many Dems now supporting Meek to move on to him. It will cause some fraction of Republicans supporting him to move away; no way to avoid that. He needs to consolidate Dems and independents more than he needs to retain Republicans

2. Demonstrating that he's the only candidate who is NOT Marco Rubio who can win. That Meek has absolutely no chance and that a vote for Meek is a wasted vote.

Most Dem voters won't do something that is utterly futile. At some point they will come to the realization that Meek's got no chance and they'll have to decide what to do. Just voting your party and taking a loss makes no sense if you have a palatable alternative.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Quite a turnaround in that MO race.

Carnahan had a nice lead earlier in the race.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_carnahan-1066.html

The wave seems to continue to build, based on some of these previously close Senate races.

MO, NH, NC, PA, OH, FL...

____________________

Paleo:

We'll see how PPP does tonight. Their poll yesterday had Meek ahead by 24 and Scott wining by 7. If Meek doesn't win big and/or Scott doesn't win, they'll be good reason to question these numbers.

____________________

Bob in SJ:

@tjampel

It's going to be difficult for the DSCC to walk that tightrope. But, they don't have as much cash as they have had in previous cycles, so it might be easy for them to write off Meek finanncially.

____________________

Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

Could we keep to the subject at hand? I'm sure there will be a thread on the race up soon.

____________________

StatyPolly:

TJ,

"Most Dem voters won't do something that is utterly futile."

Well, they did vote BObama in.

____________________

CUWriter:

Paleo: You know that's not true re: the Scott/McCollum part of that poll. Primaries are notoriously difficult to poll and the MoE in that one was large. In fact, it was larger than Scott's seven point lead.

At any rate, as Jensen pointed out there was no significant movement in affiliation or '08 vote in this LV screen compared to its RV screen earlier in the summer. Rubio's lead is courtesy of increased GOP consolidation and Dem consolidation. Crist's only viable path is the second option tjampel pointed out.

Promising to caucus with the Dems destroys the 20% he's getting with the GOP and probably a number of indies. It might increase his Dem support but only if he FIRST convinces all those Dem voters out there, especially the blacks, that a vote for Meek is wasted. Think most of the rank and file, who aren't hyper-attuned to the inside baseball of politics but show up at the polls every year, are going to ditch a black Dem candidate in favor of a former GOP white guy? I doubt it.

Rubio needs to step up his attacks of tying Crist to Obama and the Dems to further consolidate his base and pick up 30-40% of the indies. Then let Meek and Crist split the rest and it's over.

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CompCon:

I know I'm on record saying that Crist will start dropping when there is a real democrat on the ballot. I didn't think that would start until tomorrow but he has already lost a lot of ground.

Within a month, whichever democrat is on the ballot will have 30%, Crist will have 25%, and Rubio will have the rest.

The democrats are trying to make a statement by voicing support for Crist right now but there is no way they will be able to bring themselves into the booth and vote for the person they have been fighting as a republican for 4 years.

____________________

Paleo:

"Paleo: You know that's not true re: the Scott/McCollum part of that poll."

What's not true?

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Farleftandproud:

This poll is crap. If Crist loses this one, Florida will regret it. I am surprised about Crist's favorability, and wonder why Clinton still campaigns for Meek since he could help Rubio rather than hurt him.

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Cederico:

In the end this race will come down between Rubio and Crist. Meek will win the primary but he will be broke while Rubio and Crist will rule the airwaves.

DEMS will vote strategically in this race. If it looks like Rubio will win because they support Meek then they will switch to Crist. Crist has been laying the foundation for that scenario with his courting of the DEMS base.

And another thing. The approval numbers in this poll for Crist are way off. Every reputable pollster has his approvals either in the mid's 50 or so range. He is by far the most popular of the candidates and in the end that will matter.

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StatyPolly:

"Every reputable pollster has his approvals either in the mid's 50 or so range."

Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters.

And since when is PPP not reputable?

Couple of weeks?

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HookedOnPolls:

$$$ for Crist....FLUSH

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nick283:

PPP is another right wing pollster trying to ruin the liberal reign of obama. Glad the rest of America is finally seeing obama and his fellow democrats as the joke they have been since he won.

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Farleftandproud:

I don't trust the democrats enough to concede to Crist, if it looks close in the end.

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gabe:

Paleo tht is not a fair statement. Polling primary races, especially vioatile ones is far harder than polling general elections for various reasons. Regardless Crist's climb looks steeper if Meek wins tonight which is all but assured barring a election upset.

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Bukama:

I don't see crist pulling a Lieberman in Florida. The main key to Lieberman's success was he was a strong supporter on certain issues that were key to Republicans. Primarily support of the war effort in Iraq and Afghanistan. He also had joined with McCain on several bipartisan pushes in the Senate. So he was already palatable to the Republicans who could thus abandon their party's nominee who didn;t have a chance and still feel like they were forwarding their goals.

Crist has not been an outspoken thorn in the Republican's side. He has not been a champion of Democrat goals on a national stage, naturally because he has been a governor. He may be somewhat popular with Florida Democrats, but not based on pushing Democrat policies. Thus, I think most Democrats will stick with a real Democrat, even if it means losing. Crist's strongest hope is Republican support that can't stomache Rubio. But if he suggests he will caucus with the Democrats, he will lose virtually all that support.

Also, Republicans are fighting for a bigger prize - possible control of the Senate. They will put aside their distaste for Ruio if it could mean a majority. Democrats are still fairly confidentthey won't lose the Senate, so a vote for Crist on the hope he will caucus with Dems and give them a 52 instead of a 51 majority is not much of a motivator

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Paleo:

Have to give PPP kudos for last night. They did well.

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Cederico:

Staty Polly

PPP always has low approvals and favorability for almost everyone. Other pollsters always have Crist at over 50% approval/favorability. So that's my point. Crist is still popular here in FL definitely not at 42% approval.

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Thaddeus:

Anyone else find it odd that we (as a country/state) could be electing a senator with 37-39% of the vote. Guess the idea of majority rules is passe.

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