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FL: 35% Crist, 28% Rubio, 17% Meek (Ipsos/Reuters 7/9-11)

Topics: Florida , poll

Ipsos / Reuters
7/9-11/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Reuters post)

Florida

2010 Senate
35% Crist (i), 28% Rubio (R), 17% Meek (D) (chart)
34% Crist (i), 29% Rubio (R), 18% Greene (D)

2010 Governor
31% Sink (D), 30% McCollum (R), 12% Chiles (i) (chart)
345 Scott (R), 31% Sink (D), 12% Chiles (i)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 43 / 41 (chart)

 

Comments
StatyPolly:

These are RV's, not LV's. Additionally:

"Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish and the data were weighted to Florida's registered voter population according to U.S. Census figures."

That's some poll. Brand spanking new Ipsos/Reuters. Any more accurate than the dissolved Ipsos/McClatchy? Not looking too sharp so far, but we'll see..

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Paleo:

Interviews conducted in Spanish? Horrors. What's this country coming to? Perhaps, more accurate polling.

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melvin:

Poor Rubio

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SC Guy:

It's pretty unusual that the Democratic candidate would be polling such miserable numbers. I just can't help but wonder if the Democrat will pull a much stronger percentage of his own party once he gets nominated. I tend to feel that Crist is overinflated with Dem support at the moment. Once Dems really start paying attention to this race, they're likely to start backing their candidate in at least somewhat larger numbers. Crist will likely still pull some Republican votes but he's opened himself wide up to allegations of political prostitution with his position shifting. This is a race to watch.

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obamalover:

@SC Guy

The Dem candidate will get pushed out eventually. I promise you that.

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tjampel:

Paleo:

Interviews conducted in Spanish? Horrors. What's this country coming to? Perhaps, more accurate polling.

I'm surprised to see an ultraconservative wonk like StatyPoly upset about a methodology which works to the advantage of their guy (in this one state only...he'd probably decry it in other states with big Mexican populations, which FL still lackss). Those who prefer to be interviewed in Spanish in FL are, by and large, Cuban immigrants who came over in 1980 or earlier and who were adults at the time. They never learned to speak English well. They also never learned to stop poking those hanging chads for conservative candidates, who are still willing to stoke or at least indulge their decades old dream of taking out Castro. They're solidly conservative, though their kids have been leaning leftwards in the last few cycles. They voted for McCain and their kids voted for Obama.

There are some Puerto Ricans in FL too but not nearly as many as Cubans and more of them speak English as well.

So...doing interviews in Spanish helps Rubio, who has the added advantage of being Cuban and conservative.

Now if the interviews were done in French or Patois that's a different story. Then again few Hatians were just given citizenship; 100% of all Cubans were instantly eligible, even those who were released from Castro's prisons and mental hospitals in 1980 (with a few exceptions....I should know; I lived on Miami Beach then and there were ...literally...boatloads of them flooding the city at that time)

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Farleftandproud:

I think Chris Matthews on MSNBC shouldn't be getting excited about these poll numbers. Otherwise the GOP will start passing Crist off as a liberal Democrat. There is still an actual Democrat in this race, and Crist has made no plans to vote with Democrats if elected to the senate. I think he should play it safe and start out caucusing with the GOP and probably will have a similar voting record to Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins.


Who is Chiles? Is he officially on the ballot? Is he a left leaner, Centrist or tea partier?

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Xenobion:

"Interviews conducted in Spanish? Horrors. What's this country coming to? Perhaps, more accurate polling."

How dare recipients to a poll actually understand the questions they are being asked lol...

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Cody Jones:

@FarLeft

Chiles will definently hurt Sink in this race. Hes the son of former Liberal governor Lawton Chiles and is a center-left candidate.

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Farleftandproud:

Don't know why anyone from the left would make it even harder for the Democratic candidate. I am not a big fan of third parties, unless the candidate is right in the center.

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Farleftandproud:

If Chiles is from the left, I have to say that Sink has come quite a ways up in the polls. I figured Chiles was conservative, since Sink's numbers have improved.

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StatyPolly:

"Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish and the data were weighted to Florida's registered voter population according to U.S. Census figures."


I know about FL Spanish speakers. I was referring to this part: "data were weighted to Florida's registered voter population according to U.S. Census figures"

How good is this poll if it's only an RV sample, while all other pollsters are doing LV, when it comes to statewide races. And to boot, this is not even a natural RV sample but weighted by voter registration according to US friggin Census.

In other words - this poll has no bearing on realities of the Senate race in the good state of Florida. Can anyone really disagree?

And this is coming from a poster who said Crist has a slight edge just a couple of days ago.

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DB:

I hope Christ wins, only if he tells the Republican party to kiss off and then caucuses with the democrats. That would be sweet poetic justice. (I still think he'd caucus with the R's, though)

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GoTo123:

I'm putting this one under the leans independent column.

Personally I like Christ, he's pretty close to the center politically, like myself. Too bad we don't have more centrist politicians, maybe then more things would be accomplished in this country. If I lived in Florida, Christ would certainly have my vote.

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Paleo:

Christ is not a candidate. For resurrection perhaps.

Chiles is not to Sink's left. He's about where she is, maybe to her right. He's running on his father's name, and ego.

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