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FL: 41% Crist, 30% Rubio, 12% Meek (NYTimes Newspapers 6/24-28)

Topics: Florida , poll

New York Times Newspapers (FL) / University of South Florida Polytechnic
7/24-28/10; 590 likely voters, 4% margin of error
243 likely Republican primary voters, 6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Ledger: Governor, Senate)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
41% Scott, 25% McCollum

2010 Governor: General Election
27% Sink (D), 26% McCollum (R), 12% Chiles (i) (chart)
30% Scott (R), 28% Sink (D), 11% Chiles (i)

2010 Senate: General Election
41% Crist (I), 30% Rubio (R), 12% Meek (D) (chart)
37% Crist (I), 29% Rubio (R), 16% Greene (D) (chart)

 

Comments
jmartin4s:

Steve Pagliuca should learn from Rick Scott about how to buy an election.

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Farleftandproud:

Too bad that Republical guy in SC who got tea bagged in the House of reps didn't run for the senate as an independent. He wasn't a progressive champion and still fairly conservative, but compared to Jim Demint, just about everyone is liberal.

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tjampel:

I don't trust this poll---I don't think Meek's numbers are quite that low.

However, I do think Greene will pick off Meek in the primary and his numbers WILL be that low come November, as the Dem establishment give him the cold shoulder, essentially endorsing Crist and Dem voters subsequently abandon him in droves to vote for Crist.

If I were still living in FL this would be a no-brainer; I'd vote for the guy who has shown some real ability to govern in a non-partisan way over the guy who hangs with Heidi Fleiss and Lidsay Lohan and Mike Tyson and who's trying to buy the election (as Scott is on the Repub Gov side).

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AlanSnipes:

I wish that there was a strong Democrat running.

Meek appears to be like his name and Scott is a total idiot. I believe if Crist wins, however, he will caucus with the Democrats.

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jamesia:

Proof that the Tea Party can't win in a swing district.

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Field Marshal:

So is this also proof that a Democrat cannot come close to winning in a swing district?

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Farleftandproud:

Chiles is doing something that is just plain stupid this year in FL. He is simply going to take away voters and give the GOP another victory in Florida. Has he been paid by the GOP to be another Ralph Nader? Nader already helped the GOP steal one election, and they will probably get away with another one.

Thank goodness for Crist though. It is good to see someone from the Ctr who is probably going to attract some Democrats and Republicans and Independents. When the third party is too liberal or too conservative, it always hurts one of the candidates from the major party.

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StatyPolly:

"Proof that the Tea Party can't win in a swing district."

Haha, that's like saying that one 10 word misinformed comment is proof that the poster is an idiot.

First, nobody won anything yet. Second, Crist is one of only a handful of Gov's in the country whose job approval is above water. Third, Rubio's financial dealings scandal hurt him. He was well ahead until he got hit on those. (see chart)

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Farleftandproud:

I predict that Crist will caucus with the Republicans in the beginning, but will meet with both. I think he would like to not caucus with either, but to be on a committee, he will have to make a choice.

I predict he'll be voting with the Democrats probably a little more than Snowe or Collins. Over a period of time, he may decide to switch to the Dems, for fundraising reasons. Florida doesn't nominate Moderate Republicans anymore for the senate; Maine, Mass and Delaware that is totally different since, you can't be a conservative and get elected to statewide office.

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Farleftandproud:

Hopefully some florida progressives, might also lean away from Chiles, if Scott turns out to be a angry tea bagger from the Rubio, and Rand Paul school.

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AlanSnipes:

In my previous post, I said that Rick Scott is an idiot.
I had meant to say Jeff Greene, a candidate in the democratic primary for the Senate.

Rick Scott is an idiot, but I was thinking about the Florida Senate race not the governor's race when I made my previous post.

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AlanSnipes:

In my previous post, I said that Rick Scott is an idiot.
I had meant to say Jeff Greene, a candidate in the democratic primary for the Senate.

Rick Scott is an idiot, but I was thinking about the Florida Senate race not the governor's race when I made my previous post.

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Xenobion:

As we get closer to election day we see many conservatives that disparaged Crist for hugging Obama now about-face and welcome him with open arms. I wonder how Crist will react after everyone burned bridges with him. Will he be the new Olympia Snow *ahem* Scott Brown of FL?

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melvin:

Obama should drop Biden for Crist,because if he does that,there's no way the GOP can win and 2012.The Republican party wants to do away with the 14th amendment,which is very unlikely,because 38 States would have to agree,and plus they would need 2/3 of the Senate and House to do it.Telemundo is reporting if the GOP continues to talk about doing away with the 14th amendment, its going to push 85% of Hispanics voters over to the Democrats.John Kyle came out in support of doing away with the 14th amendment yesterday,but again the Major Media is not talking about it,because i really believe the Major Media do not want to give the Hispanic community a reason to come out in vote and November,because they want a huge story the day after the Midterms,but if top Republicans keep coming out in support of abolishing the 14th amendment,then the Major Media is going to be force to report on it.

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melvin:

Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats,because the far-right hates the guy,and the far-left respects him.Crist is going to become a Democrat by early 2012.The Republican party just gave away Florida to the Democrats forever.Thank you:John Kyle.

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SC Guy:

I really am skeptical of the Democrats boycotting their own candidate by these numbers all the way to November. Charlie Crist is a political prostitute and most voters can see that. I think more Dems will come back to their own nominee after the nominating process. Even Rubio will probably get more of the GOP vote. Time will tell but that's my hunch.

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IdahoMulato:

I can't believe Crish now has a double-digit lead over Rubio and the GOPers are grasping for straw.

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tjampel:

SC Guy:

I really am skeptical of the Democrats boycotting their own candidate by these numbers all the way to November.... I think more Dems will come back to their own nominee after the nominating process.

Why should Dems do that if Greene is the candidate? He's only nominally a Dem. The party itself probably won't back him.

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tjampel:

SC Guy

this from the last PPP poll regarding Greene as the Dem nominee:

" Just how good would it be for Charlie Crist if Jeff Greene won the Democratic nomination for the Senate in Florida? Our poll of the state a couple weeks ago found that among people who would vote for Kendrick Meek if he was the Democratic nominee only 32% would vote for Greene were he the nominee while 40% would go for Crist with Libertarian Alex Snitker getting 5% and Marco Rubio pulling 4%.

There's a particularly strong disparity with black voters. If Meek is the nominee Crist loses them 39-33. If Greene is the nominee Crist wins them 61-17.

If Greene manages to win the Democratic primary it may be a Pyrrhic victory with Crist turning out to be real winner."

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melvin:

When are you Republican screw balls going to get it? America is scared to death of the racist teaparty. The teaparty is never going to win and a Purple or Blue State.

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melvin:

The teaparty is going to blame the GOP if Rubio,Angle and Rand Paul lose in November.I am 100% sure the Republican party is going to be divided come 2012.If Ron Paul don't win the Republican nomination or if the nominee don't pick him for the VP,i believe Ron Paul is going to run as a independent in get 90% of the teaparty vote,which would be very very bad for the Republican party and 2012

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Aaron_in_TX:

"I really am skeptical of the Democrats boycotting their own candidate by these numbers all the way to November"

Why? Kendrick Meek was a throwaway candidate who the dems expected to run against Crist as an R and lose. Now that Crist is an I, it doesn't make sense that dems would suddenly rally around an uninspiring candidate. And now there's Rubio, whose much easier to hate from a dem perspective than Crist.

Besides, Crist is the de facto democrat now and has made moves to subtly suggest that.

If Rubio wants to win, he needs Meek to get more than 20%.

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gabe:

Melvin when will you get it? Independents do not give a shit about the Tea Party or its members. They care about the economy, jobs, educaation, etc.

For this particular poll I would really love to see what kind of model the NY Times is using because for Crist to be pulling 41% he would need to be winning a majority of independents, Dems and quite a few Republicans. Factor in the fact the GOP leads by 5 among RVs on the generic ballot and Crist may need a real lead this big to actually win.

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Bryan McFarland:

"I don't think Meek's numbers are quite that low."

They're that low. The 12% basically represents the black vote and a small amount of very liberal whites. I doubt he'll win the primary.


"Proof that the Tea Party can't win in a swing district."

I'm no fan of the Tea Party but I have to agree with Statepolly: Marco Rubio is the ultimate GOP insider in Florida. The guy has been in state politics since his early 20s, and has been running for one office or another since then. He definitely does not represent your typcial Tea Party inspired candidate such as Rand Paul or Rick Scott. He's got party issued credit card problems and did not pay his mortgage on his Tallahassee home for five months, narrowly averting foreclosure proceedings.

He lacks experience, something the Florida electorate has picked up on. He is also from Miami, and South Florida politicians have had bad luck winning state wide elections in Florida.

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Bryan McFarland:

"There's a particularly strong disparity with black voters. If Meek is the nominee Crist loses them 39-33. If Greene is the nominee Crist wins them 61-17."

I tend to agree with these numbers. Crist did well (for a Republican) with the black vote in his 2006 campaign for governor. If Greene wins, Crist might able to tap into black anger over Greene "stealing" (or buying!) the nomination from Meek. Crist's general support for Obama--long before his Senate run--also will help him with the black vote. Crist also does well with teachers' unions, which are well represented (especially in South Florida) by black educators.

The danger is that Greene's primary victory might turn off the black electorate from voting at all. However, I suspect Meek will throw his support to Crist rather than the Democratic nominee Greene.

There is also a rumor drifting around that the state Democratic party might disavow Greene as the nominee due to his sketchy past and the fact that he was a Republican up until several years ago. Not that they would endorse Crist, but they would probably release state reps and party leaders to go their own way.

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Bryan McFarland:

"For this particular poll I would really love to see what kind of model the NY Times is using because for Crist to be pulling 41% he would need to be winning a majority of independents, Dems and quite a few Republicans."

Trust me, Crist does really well with Democrats, and according to an earlier poll, has about 20% of the Republican vote (I presume these are moderates).

I would use the 2006 Lieberman-Lamont-Schlesinger race in Connecticut as parallel to Florida. In that race, the Republicans pretty much abandoned their nominee, Schlesinger and threw their support to Lieberman. Just switch the party affiliations, and this is what you have in Florida.

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JimD52:

I am amazed and apalled by Rick Scott's campaign. As a Floridian, I cannot understand why anyone can take him seriously. Why should anyone think Rick Scott can institute "accountability" in the state government and be a good steward of the taxpayers' money when his company perpetrated the largest Medicare fraud in history. Either he was complicit in the fraud, which makes him a crook, or he didn't know about it (which is hard to believe). However, if he didn't know about it - which is about what he claims - what does that tell you about his ability as an executive. Frankly, as CEO of a corporation he had a lot more direct control over the running of the company than a governor does over the running of the state. If he gets elected, wait and see how successful he is in dictating to the state legislature and bending the bureaucracy to his will.

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