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FL: 50% Scott, 44% Sink (Rasmussen 9/22)

Topics: Florida , poll

Rasmussen
9/22/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Florida

2010 Governor
50% Scott, 44% Sink (chart)

2010 Senate
41% Rubio (R), 30% Crist (i), 21% Meek (D) (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Good News about Crist, but I on Scott, there is no way he has a 21 point lead among independents after Mason/Dixon had SInk's lead among INdependents by 7. Obviously Rasmussen did something to mess up. Sink has the momentum, and even Intrade and other sources have predicted Sink will win. I am sure that knowing Scott Rasmussen, that Scot in Florida is probably his poster boy.

What could be a better poster boy for Mr Rasmussen than a Health care millionaire who can buy elections and get elected and fight Obamacare to the point where his money in his blind trust in his insurance company can suck money from the middle class. That is the endgame.

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Bob in SJ:

FTW? Crist is still in this thing. Maybe Rass had trouble coming up with a sample that had both Rubio and Scott ahead, and decided to boost Scott. (I kid,I kid).

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Field Marshal:

That should be 30% for Crist.

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Paleo:

it drew an immediate electronic tongue-lashing from Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who sent reporters a missive that questioned the results.

“It’s not even worth a blog post. At best it is an outlier, at worst it is a joke. There isn’t anybody, R or D in this state who thinks that Scott has a plus 14 fav:unfav or is up by more than 20 with NPA/Independent voters,” Schale wrote in the e-mail. “Everyone should ask Rasmussen to release his data/methodology on this one. ”

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2010/09/rasmussen-poll-has-scott-up-democrats-fuming.html

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Bob in SJ:

I retract my previous statement.

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Fred:

@Dems

Don't look to the Mason-Dixon poll as being good news for Sink. The last Mason-Dixon poll, granted it was Registered Voters, had Sink up by 16 points. The mason-dixon poll before that had Sink up by 2 points, at a time when all other pollsters had Scott up. Mason-dixon has had the most democratic leaning polling in this race of all the pollsters out there.

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tjampel:

16 points up among reg voters in FL translates to ...hmmm....about 8 points up with LVs in FL.

Your point?

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BH:

"Obviously Rasmussen did something to mess up."

Just because you don't like their numbers?

Crist at 30 makes far more sense...otherwise you have 101% of your sample selecting a candidate (LOL) with no undecideds.

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BH:

..actually make that 102%...but you get the idea.

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Mike E:

Sweeeet. Go Rubio. Crush the racist, anti-minority, democrat machine.

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Fred:

@Jtrampel

I like how you read about 1/10 of my post. If you'd have read the whole thing, you'd have gotten my point. My point was that Mason-Dixon has had the most democratic-leaning results in this race thus far.

At the time when Mason-Dixon RV had Sink up by 16, Quinnipiac RV had Sink up by only 4.

Mason-Dixon also showed polling that had McCollum up by 12 over Scott right before the primary.

The last Rasmussen poll had Sink up by 1. This one has Scott up by 6.

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niikeb:

Florida wants to vote for Scott, he just has not given them a reason to yet. I really think he is going to pull it in a cake walk. Just like I think Boxer is gonna squish her opponant.

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tjampel:

Fred: I read your post. My only point is this:
Going from 16 RV to 7 LV doesn't show a significant drop. You tried to imply it does. At least that's how I read it.

Mason Dixon is definitely not a Dem pollster nor have its polls been sympathetic to Dems historically. In fact they skewed a bit Republican in the 2008 cycle.

They totally blew the primary. PPP had it right. They may be wrong about Sink/Scott here---I agree with that. They did not show a significant drop so I questioned your use of those two results.

As for this Ras result I think it's an outlier. I think Ras has been very accurate of late in many polls but not this one. I'd like to see his crosstabs on this; independents aren't going for Scott by these numbers in my former state and Scott is NOT this popular there either.

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Kaw-liga:

The post is confusing since it lists results for both the governor and senate race -- however, the Senate results are from a different sample, polled 9/14.

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jmartin4s:

According to Rasmussen Scott leads with indies 55 to 34 according to Mason Dixon Sink leads with indies 44 to 37 who do you not believe.

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BillBell:

If Scott is ahead, why is he doing nothing but running negative ads? If he was ahead, he would be focusing on his message and ignoring Sink.

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