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FL: McCain 49, Obama 47 (SurveyUSA-10/16)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/16/08; 553 LV, 4.3%
Mode: IVR

Florida
McCain 49, Obama 47

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

Sure McCain wins 22% of AA in FL, in other words Kerry fared better among this group than Obama

Not even close
Try again ...

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mandalorianarmy:

Like a man at Bon Jovi concert, this the official outlier of the day.


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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Haha. In other news, the Cincinnati Bengals are on pace to win 10 games this season and return to the playoffs.

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political_junki:

Only 10% AA and McSame wins %20+.
Fail. Next.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

This poll represents a definite possibility, but the internals suggest a 'worst case scenario.' GREAT NEWZ FOR MCCAIN!!!!

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mysticlaker:

Who wants some news:

North Dakota confirmed in play.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/17/134335/23/442/633159

O: 45
M: 45

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makersmark:

this poll is ALL out of wack


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sunnymi:


Research 2000 for Daily Kos 10/14-15
Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/16-17 results)

McCain (R) 45 (53)
Obama (D) 45 (40)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/17/134335/23/442/633159

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Viperlord:

Pleeeeeeaseeeeeeee. If this ridiculous poll shows it that close, I wonder what it really is?

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Miami4Obama:

How about the Party IDs?

44 Rep
40 Dem

+4 ID advantage to the Repubs? Can't imagine this is correct - anyone know?

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maddiekat:

There it is boobshak

Your favorite poster!

http://www.tipponline.com/

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political_junki:

@Miami4Obama:
Had not notice that, thanx.
If you take into account the party ID and fix the AA share in this poll, it will be in line with others. Slight Obama lead.

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political_junki:

@maddiekat:
I had never heard of'em but I like their numbers!

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faithhopelove:

This poll, showing McCain up a statistically insignificant 2 points in FL, is curious (to put it kindly) on a number of counts:

1) its sample has a 48/52 male/female split--in the 2004 election the male/female split in FL was 46/54;

2) its sample is 26% 65+--in 2004, this age group made up just 19% of FL voters;

3) its sample is 44% Rep, 40% Dem--in the 2006 midterm election FL voters were 39% Rep and 36% Dem, and new Democratic voter registrations have outpaced new Republican voter registrations since that time;

4) its sample is 10% African-American--in 2004 12% of FL voters were black;

5) it finds 22% of African-Americans voting for McCain--Bush won just 13% of this vote in 2004.

So, SUSA finds that if turnout in FL among men, seniors, and Republicans increases, and if African-American turnout in FL is less than it was in 2004, and if more African-Americans prefer McCain to Obama than preferred Bush to Kerry, then McCain will win FL by about 2%.

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mysticlaker:

Viperlord, You ass...This is the third poll this week that has shown North Dakota close, and the first by a national pollster (R2000). Get a clue you ass.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nd/north_dakota_mccain_vs_obama-618.html

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licinfl:


The Internals are off.
As of 8/08 Fl registrations were:

Republican Democratic None
3,954,884 4,453,008 1,988,679
(from the Florida division of elections)

Further, there have been 100,000+ newly registered voters since then - with Dems having a 2-1 advantage.

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mysticlaker:

Come on viperload, where is you retort you ignorant POS.

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billwy:

actually 44-40 is pretty close. My math might be slightly off with this but here is a calculation for you all. In 2004, 21% of the democratic primary turnout was AA. Based on that model, that would mean 114 people surveyed by SurveyUSa would be AA. If 22% went to McCain that would be 25.08 people. So 25. If you reduced his percentage by 2/3 and McCain get's 8 votes in that sample (that is 7% of AA vote)the overall result goes from 271 people voting McCain to 257. result:McCain 46.4 Obama 50.1. In other words, if McCain only pulled 7% of AA, which I think is reasonable, Obama wins in this poll by 3.7.
That's best case scenario for Obama...and you have to remember that large parts of Fla are like the rest of the south, where AA voters will more often vote Republican...wouldn't be surprised if McCain picked up 12% of the AA vote here.

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mysticlaker:

Come on...Viperload...Face my wrath.

I am a servant of the Secret Fire, wielder of the Flame of Anor...

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KipTin:

What a bunch of ACORNS (nutty partisan "non-partisans) for calling this poll an outlier.

First...Read the narrative and look at previous SurveyUSA polls in Florida. Polls tightened in Florida with economic crisis...

9/27-28/08 McCain 48 Obama 47
9/16-17/08 McCain 51 Obama 45
8/1-3/08 McCain 50 Obama 44

Second... Comparatively, Florida has a very low African-American population (16%) compared to Hispanics and Whites... ergo 10% voting population is probably about right equating to 55 participants in this poll. McCain's 22% of those voters equates to 12 voters. Of those 12 voters it would not be surprising to find mostly active and retired military.

So, duh. Try some commonsense and simple math next time.


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Florida Voter:

Most local polling data here in Tampa Bay has Obama up by 6-8 points just last week. As some of the big GOP supporters/bank roll people have stated here, if that proves to be true, McCain won't win Florida.

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boomshak:

Good news, but it seems to be that SUSA has always been all over the place.

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southern angler:

I'm watching McCain right now in Miami, he is rocking the house and the crowd is on fire!

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mysticlaker:

If McCain gets 22% of the AA vote in florida I will eat my shoe...

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Viperlord:

What the hell is mysticlaker attacking me about, this is the FL poll, not the ND poll idiot.

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KipTin:

Start chewing. Big military presence in Florida... active and retired. You also should have paid closer attention to the Florida delegates at the Republican convention... a lot of black veterans.

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Schill:

All survey USA polls show a great support of African American for McCain from 20 to 25% while other polls are showing 5 to 10 percent--in Georgia it is 3%--So this poll shows a support of 25% that is absurd to say the least. This poll also show a higher popularity in the central Florida then the South East Florida which has Palm Beach County, Broward and Dade County--that is also weird--I am not a statitician, but I am from Florida.

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Trosen:

KipTin:

"Start chewing. Big military presence in Florida... active and retired. You also should have paid closer attention to the Florida delegates at the Republican convention... a lot of black veterans."

Oh god here we go.. you really are the worst poster on here sometimes. Just like McCain is so far ahead in OK because of all the AAs and Native Americans right?

Ok righties.. I'll grant you this. If McCain actually gets 22% of the AA in FL.. he's got a very good shot of keeping it red. Now if you actually believe that, I've got several bridges to sell you, and one is in Alaska.

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Viperlord:

KipTin's not even close to the worst. He may be a idiot, but he's still not close to the worst. Jenn, greg, boomspin, vivla, alankeyes, etec are the worst. And am I the only one who seems to remember Obama getting more contributions from the military than McCain? McCain wasn't even in the top two I think, the candidates who got the most from the military during the primaries at least were Paul and Obama. (Both anti-war)

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mandalorianarmy:

KipTin,

I'm from Florida. There is no way Obama does worse than Kerry did.

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Tzal:

I looked at the FL Board of Registration Website, the party affiliation breakdown in FL is D41, R36. Do with that what you will.

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southern angler:

Rush must be reading my post. He just made a great observation on the Jimmy Carter years. He went to compare Obamas ecom. plan to Carters and how it wrecked the US economy, just as I have made here.
Rush please send me a check.

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logic001:

Let's give credit where credit is due, boomshak's comment was mature and reasonable. I'd like to see Florida go blue but I'm always grateful to see a civil tone.

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Trosen:

logic001:

"Let's give credit where credit is due, boomshak's comment was mature and reasonable. I'd like to see Florida go blue but I'm always grateful to see a civil tone."


Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

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Schill:

Republican Democratic Minor None Total
R 3,954,884 D 4,453,008 M 347,I 519 1,988,679 Total 10,744,090
based on survey USA poll Obama wins 80% of the democrat as well as McCain for republicans and obama wins the independent--So this poll really does not respect the weight of the voters' registration record of Florida which is now final. 41%D 37%R and 22% Other

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katocat:

Can't wait to see the bump Obama gets after 30 minutes of uninterrupted airtime 3 days before the election.

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Paul:

Kerry won 86% of the AA vote in FL. This poll has Obama at 75%.

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MB1122:

"Rush must be reading my post. He just made a great observation on the Jimmy Carter years. He went to compare Obamas ecom. plan to Carters and how it wrecked the US economy, just as I have made here."

oh jesus - you have GOT to be kidding me - lol!

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Paul:

The SUSA AA polls in FL is out of sync. In the last two SUSA-FL polls, Obama has 79% and 75% of AA. The last PPP-FL poll had Obama at 92% AA and the last R2K-FL poll had Obama at 88%.

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KipTin:

FYI... This is a LIKELY VOTER poll and not a REGISTERED VOTER poll. One needs to acknowledge that as well as that pollster differ on how they model likely voters.

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KipTin:

So Obamanation of you guys to call me names. And that is why you are so labeled.

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Basil:

@southern

Your youtube link is telling. I'll bet it went over big at the KKK meeting.

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southern angler:

Basil
It was the hit of the meeting. We missed you this week. Will you be there next weeks meeting?

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southern angler:

Thanks Basil,
It really was a big hit. By the we missed you last week. Hope to see you there next week.

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southern angler:

sorry typos ..trying to work at the same time.

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gymble:

@KipTin

Military presence aside, do you really think it's reasonable that Obama will get a smaller percentage of the AA vote in FL than Kerry?

It's true that the numbers you cite show that this poll is in line with the other SUSA polls in FL. However, the internals don't seem to line up well with either the 2004 numbers or current demographic estimates from other pollsters. This is not to say that it's fair to ignore the poll or to assume that it's an outlier. I suspect that the margin in Florida is going to be within 2-3 points one way or the other.

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Schill:

Even it is likely voters--All polls show an enthusiastic gap between democrat and republicans--eventhough there are 4% more democrats than republican, more republicans will vote in Florida, and second, Obama in this poll leads among the independents--therefore this is the first where Obama leads among independents, he has more than 40% of the white and still lags behind. Which means there more republicans than democrats and independents combined in Florida.

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MDB1974:

The key issue on SUSA is that in some way there model varies. They have never polled Obama ahead in FL at anytime according to their website.

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KipTin:

What you are missing is that in this poll, the black vote is only 22% of 10% (12 participants). I believe that it is very feasible that 12 people in this sample will vote for McCain.

You guys are making way too much of this very very small sample of blacks in this poll. Think about it. That was the point of my first post here. Much ado about nothing.

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s.b.:

Yeah and out of 100,000 new voter registrations at least 50,000 of them are garbage, just like in every other state ACORN is submitting registrations.

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CaptainPatent:

@KipTin:

Those 12 participants need to hold true for the entire sample when it comes time to vote. If we take the same numbers as what Kerry received (versus the SUSA prediction) there's a gap of 9% which accounts for 10% of the whole or .9% right there. If we then factor in how Obama has been polling with other pollsters (90-95% range) that makes a difference of 1.5% almost erasing McCain's lead.

To add to that the party weightings don't seem to hold up which could be another few percent difference in reality.

I'm not saying the claimed scenario cannot happen - the entheusiasm gap going to repubs in florida with 22% AA vote, but I think that scenario is highly unlikely.

By the way - 22% of 10% (or 2.2%) IS a 40 foot molehill when the difference between the candidates is 2%.

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CaptainPatent:

@s.b.

You may be surprised there - yes there were some erronious registrations, but we haven't seen how deep that rabit hole goes.

ACORN only accounted for a small percentage of overall voter registeration BTW, so your assertion that 50% are invalid is right out. Maybe 5-10% in the very high end, but even that I think is a McCain best-case.

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Trosen:

I'm not going to argue this anymore. If your guys' best hope to win is that McCain wrests over 20% off AA votes in any state.. Mazeltov, Shalom, and best of luck to you. You'll need it.

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s.b.:

The military times poll of military personale is out. just in case you obamabots can't understand why McCain will win Virginia on Nov 4th and is winning Florida.

McCain-Obama
Overall 68-23
Army 68-23
Navy 69-24
Air Force 67-24
Marines 75-18

Retirees 72 20

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s.b.:

I was being a little sarcastic with the 50% but as I have pointed out on other threads, the 2004 election at 60% registered voter turnout had the third highest turnout of registered voters in modern Us history behind 1960 at 63%, and 1968 at 62%. This notion that somehow voter turnout is going to be higher than 2004 is wishful thinking at best. higher than any time in US history, completely delusional. In fact the bogus voter registrations, and registrations of people who don't know they are registered or care, will only serve to lower these numbers. My mother, a real person, was registered by someone, not her to vote in Minnesota. She's not a US citizen. There is all kinds of voter registration fraud going on. All kinds.

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Trosen:

s.b.

That poll was "out" over 2 weeks ago.

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s.b.:

And your point is? I have always maintained that the absentee military ballot for McCain will win him Virginia. Are pollsters phoning Iraq and Afghanistan?

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Trosen:

Not to mention.. I'm not so sure I'd take those #s to the bank.. in light of:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/08/military_abroad.html

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CaptainPatent:

@s.b.

Wow, where to begin. If 100% of the Virginia population were military, you're probably right that VA would go red. The funny thing is we have this thing called statistical weighting because they account for only a fraction of the overall population.

THEN if you start factoring in all the groups with their previous turnout and projected turnout in addition to the frequency by which they'll vote for a candidate you have what's called a poll. Amazingly enough, this is a representative sample of the WHOLE state.

At this particular site we tend to focus on such representative samples and those that have been done in VA are showing an 8% lead for Obama.

I know, I thought McCain would win here (in VA) at first because I asked three of my friends who they were voting for and two of them said McCain... but then I got ahold of this whole representative sample thing and man did my viewpoint get turned around.

*rolls eyes*

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CaptainPatent:

@s.p.

Yes, voter fraud is occuring with regards to registration. You are still vastly overestimating that weight though. The ACORN faulty voter registration problem happens almost every year when someone gets in a pay-per-registration basis and gets the bright idea to send in crap like they did. It's happened in past elections and it'll happen again.

What we have to go by is the past years numbers in addition to the entheusiasm gap. When people are interviewed over the phone, those are actual people who can actually answer whether or not they're going to vote and actually give demographic information.

Additionally - we'll go ahead and analyze your point with military abroad. Right now there are about 120,000 troops in the war give or take. Let's make the rediculous assumption that ALL of them are from Virginia and ALL of them vote McCain and ALL of them vote. We have a population of around 7 Mil in VA - so let's make the low-end assumption that 15% are going to vote. this leaves around 1.2 Mil votes so military account for 10% if that's the case McCain JUST BARELY takes the lead.

Too bad those assumptions are way out of line with reality though.

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s.b.:

Military personale oversees can vote in the place they were last stationed on US soil. There are US military personale all over the world that were last stationed in Virginia. There is also a massive organizing effort in the military on behlf of McCain. They know where to send their votes.

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s.b.:

Captain, just citing personale #'s in Iraq vastly underestimates US military personale oversees.

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Incumbent:

Politifact has today published their findings on the ACORN controversy and Obama's connection to the organization:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2008/oct/17/nut-job-gop-links-acorn-obama/

Despite what Senator McCain says, this sure doesn't sound like "one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country" to me...

Thought I'd post the link in case anyone wants spread the word, although I'm sure the right-wingers continuing to spread the lies don't have much use for facts unless they agree with the narrative they're pushing.

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katocat:

@s.b.:
"The military times poll of military personale is out. just in case you obamabots can't understand why McCain will win Virginia on Nov 4th and is winning Florida."

LOL, that's a poll of subscribers to Military times not the military as a whole.

From the AP story:
"Troops serving abroad have given nearly six times as much money to Obama's presidential campaign as they have to McCain's, the Center for Responsive Politics said."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080814/military_donations.html

Also, I think if you are going to pretend you represent the military, you should probably learn to spell "personnel."

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katocat:

@s.b.

"Characteristics of Military Times readers may also affect the results. The group surveyed is significantly older than the military as a whole, and the survey group contains a higher percentage of officers than is present in the military."

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green baby green:

For all you Obama fans out there, I just did the math to readjust for the AA vote...

I changed SUSA's demographics of AA to 12% (in line w/2004) and adjusted the AA vote to allocate a proper 95% of their vote to Obama. So the new results:

Obama 48.4%
McSame 44.8%

Now the results seem alot more inline with all of the other major polls!

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boomshak:

I wonder where we would be right now if the MSM had spent 1/10th the time vetting Obama's past as the have of "Joe the Plumber"?

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green baby green:

@boomshak

It's funny you bring up Joe the Plumber...turns out his father is the son in law of Charles Keating! You know, the crook from Lincoln Savings that cost countless people their life savings, taxpayers $4 billion and JM improperly tried to influence regulators...Coincedence? No, another stupid republican trick that failed!

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