Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

FL: McCain 50, Obama 45 (PPP-9/6-7)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
9/6-7/08; 968 LV, 3.1%
Mode: IVR

Florida
McCain 50, Obama 45
(August: McCain 47, Obama 44)

 

Comments
Hope Reborn:

So the GOP pollster, Rasmussen, has Florida as a dead even state, yet the "Liberal" pollster PPP has it McCain +5.

Can people stop calling PPP Liberal.

Thank You.

____________________

obas:

These polls are becoming meaningless.

Like its been pointed out before. Some are online and others are land line only thus leaving out Cell phones.

Bottom line, its all about who goes out to vote.

____________________

Hope Reborn:

The problem that jumps out at me immediately is PPP picks up a net 2% advantage among ID Republicans vs. Democrats. This is a historically atypical change according to Pew's graph on the subject found here:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans

Party ID in Florida is usually roughly the same, and if anything this poll samples too few Independents. Maybe a product of two successful conventions. We'll see.

____________________

Justin:

Like other recent polls from southern states, this one shows Obama with unrealistically low support among African Americans (88%).

It also has McCain winning women by two points. That trend might hold up after the Sarah Palin's novelty starts to fade, but I have my doubts.

(Attention McCain trolls: be sure to respond to both observations with ad hominem nonsense. Thanks.)

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

Echoing Hope Reborn, PPP give the Republicans +2 in party ID advantage. 2000 exit polls (from GorevBush) show Dems with a +2 advantage. This alone would reduce the margin by 3 in favor of Obama.... We'll just have to see huh.

____________________

Tybo:

Like other recent polls from southern states, this one shows Obama with unrealistically low support among African Americans (88%).

Justin wrote:

It also has McCain winning women by two points. That trend might hold up after the Sarah Palin's novelty starts to fade, but I have my doubts.
(Attention McCain trolls: be sure to respond to both observations with ad hominem nonsense. Thanks.)"

bet justin doesn't get the irony of his whole post
LOL!

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Of course these polls are suddenly meaningless. They don't show you what you want to see. Hehehe. Lol.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Tybo:
Black Americans have minds of their own too. Stop grouping us together like sheep.

____________________

Tybo:

why did Mike use 2000 polls to show voter ID.. what about 2004?

____________________

thoughtful:

I have to say I find this poll to be a little strange between the AA and the ID anomolies, this drives out a tie or a slight Obama lead. the other aspect is that this a LV poll.

LV seem to drive out between 2-5% more lean to McCain,I don't know why that is?

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

You're killing me. Even when the #'s don't favor your guy, you still think your guy is ahead....I bet if the Gallup came out with a McCain lead 75-20 you'd still think Obama was ahead...

____________________

KipTin:

McCain increased his lead among white voters 61%-34%. And he now gets 49% women. McCain also gets 13% Democrats, which seems to be typical for him in these polls. Only 9% could change their mind.

White 67% (Obama 34-McCain 61)
African American vote 16% (Obama 88-McCain 10)
Hispanic Vote 13% (Obama 49-McCain 42)

Democrats 43% (Obama 82-McCain 13)
Republican 41% (Obama 10-McCain 87)
Other 16% (Obama 43-McCain 43)

I do not see where Obama can make up the 5 points. With all that Florida advertising by Obama and he keeps falling further behind.

Justin... You forget that African Americans also represent the military (active and retired), which has a significant presence in Florida. Vets are VERY supportive of McCain.

Hope Reborn... After the GOP convention, there was a "surge" of self-identified Republicans.

P.S. I have never called PPP liberal, but after it changed its methodology (because it was not including enough Dems) then it appeared to be at the upper end for preferring Dems.

Whereas, Rasmussen is weighting its polls based on 3 months of polling political ID, and thus explains its "flatter" results after the conventions. I assume such also applies to the state polls.

____________________

Tybo:

never met... that wasn't my words, it was Justins

The 'Justin wrote' is in the wrong place.

but justins whole post was hypocritical...

____________________

thoughtful:

Stillow

I am making an observation based on my comment that Florida is going blue! Though you wouldn't think so from this poll!

When is the next Nevada poll coming out?

PS I don't see Barr ahead in this poll!

____________________

marctx:

Stillow:

Don't tell them their are NOT ahead. I'm hoping the Obama fans will be so sure they are winning that they won't bother to put their bongs down to go vote...LOL!

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Tybo,

I'm sorry. I did read your post incorrectly. Thanks for correcting me.

____________________

Jacob S:

PPP is a Democratic pollster, but it seems to be fairly accurate (in many of the primaries it was spot-on). I would say that this poll aptly reflects a modest convention bounce for McCain in FL.

____________________

KipTin:

Likely voters tend to lean GOP because they are historically the more reliable voters.

Registered voters tend to lean Dem because they have more registered voters.

The youth vote in Florida (rather it be unreliable or reliable) is not enough in number to make a big difference in this state. Neither is the African-American vote. Even the MSNBC analysts have pretty well conceded Florida to McCain.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

The Florida legislature is expected to maintain it's strong repub majority. The state is not growing any bluer.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

FL is staying red, sorry to upset you.

Don't know on NV, the local paper did a unscientific poll showing Obama ahead in clark county 49-46, but McCain ahead in Northern Nevada 56-38....means nothing though.

____________________

thoughtful:

Undecided KipTin

Well Hillary Clinton hasn't she's down there today.

Ed Koch hasn't he has just endorsed Barrack Obama having endorsed Bush in 2004 describing Mrs Palin as "scary". She is too!

____________________

Tybo:

"Well Hillary Clinton hasn't she's down there today."

runniing for 2008?

"Ed Koch hasn't he has just endorsed Barrack Obama having endorsed Bush in 2004 "

Okay, that in itself should scare you.. Koch finds Obama and Bush endorsement worthy.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Well if Koch said it, it must be so.

Heheh, I still find it hilarious that Palin is driving the left insane. Ya might as well face it, when McCain wins in november...and after the 4000 lawsuits the dems file in protest, mccain and palin will come out on top....and the first female vp of the country will be a republican.

____________________

thoughtful:

Stillow

You know by now that you never upset me because I respect your point of view and you mine. (some of the time). I think Florida is well winnable for Obama. My friend Kiptin excludes new voter registration from his LV bias explanation.

Nevada looks like a real nail biter, are you in Clark County? That must have half the population?

____________________

boskop:

@Hey!!!

notice the big O is losing WIS as I warned you he would by mid week. this has always been my bellweather. when it caves, which it will by fri or saturday, the rest of the swing states shift.

i warned you all mccain would pick palin.
i warned about the hedge fund indictment...more to come on biden also a possible plagiarism charge that has real legs and much truth..

and i warned you guys about WIS while all you did was yackety yack about ohio and colorado.

now that WI has begun its turn around start looking at JOISEE!!!

if that pulls to just within even in one week, obama loses the election by a fairly sizable margin, 5-8%.

oh right, i dont make predictions. i just do warnings.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Voter reigistrations do not mean those peoole will vote....how many cycles have we heard of new registered dems, but then never shwoing up to vote?

NV will be close, no doubt. All the move-ins by Califronians are definatley turning it light blue, but will stay red this year. Clark county is where all the people live....its gonna need a heavy heavy turnout i nthe North for mcain to win...northern nevada is heavily GOP.

____________________

thoughtful:

Tybo

Koch is a very well respected Jewish elder his endorsement carries weight in Florida.

Stillow

It is not just Liberals obsessed with Gov Palin, is it? It's going to end in tears, but enjoy it as long as it last.

OK, what would happen, and obviously I hope he has a long life and good health, if John McCain had a massive heart attack next week. Would Gov Palin go top of the ticket?

____________________

Snowspinner:

Florida is a hard state to poll. A lot of varying demographics, which don't interact as such. High elderly, high Jewish, a lot of transplants from differing regions of the country, significant AA, Cuban... it's a weird, weird state. Which explains the high variations we get on polls there.

I would not want to speculate on the quality of individual polls.

____________________

serpounce:

While this is bad news for Obama in the sense that it's another poll showing that McCain got a meaningful bounce out of the convention, FL is unlikely to be a deciding force in this election. It's very hard to see a situation where Obama wins FL, but looses in OH, CO, VA, NH, etc in a way that FL wins the electin for him.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Yes.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

It's all over. Obama is clearly pulling ahead. The polls don't lie. When ever they show a republican leading, we all know the truth is the opposite. Give it up my conservative friends. Palin is destroying this ticket. What a fool McCain was for selecting such an unknown. I know defeat when I see it. I saw that we had lost the war in Iraq months ago when the dems were telling us so, but I was true proud to admit it. Then McCain pushes for the surge and what happened? Now we have to start bringing our troops home. It's just over.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

boskop.

you make me laugh, thank you for providing such good comic relief.

for those of us interested in REALITY, no new poll has come out of Wisconsin. How can we even infer that it's "turning" by the end of the week. You treat an entire state like its this monolithic thing that just decides where to go.

Also, you know that I've constantly warned posters about using definitives to assert opinions. Case in point: "which it will be fri or sat"...Really? do you have some inside knowledge that none of us know about?

Get over yourself.

At the peak of his convention bounce McCain pulls to even nationally. Keep shilling!

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

You're right spinner:

We are just a state filled with weird multi-ethnic groups and individuals. Certainly not indicative of real America. No wonder it all came down to Florida in 2000. We're defeated again.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

actually boskop, i stand corrected. There is a poll out of Wisconsin. SHOWING NO MOVEMENT. Obama lost a point, McCain gained a point, all within the MOE float.

Where is this massive collapse you predicted????

Also, one caveat is that SV is a Republican pollster. And they totally botched the WI primary. Just food for thought :)

I think WI is quite safe. If McCain can only raise his numbers one point at the HEIGHT of this bounce, then i'd say give up.

____________________

damitajo1:

A lot of Florida Democrats routinely vote Republican - adding more complication to the party id situation (if it is even a situation).

____________________

Brutus1_:
____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Let us not forget that Rush Limbaugh lives in Florida and his vote carries more weight than others, so that needs to be considered.

____________________

Brutus1_:

RUSH lives in florida? ROTFLMAO!! And the jews care because??????

Palin might as well represent the Nazi party. Not one jew is going to vote for them.

Ed Koch supported Bush in '04 and is now supporting Obama - and is willing to campaign for him.

GAME OVER!

____________________

Tybo:

"Let us not forget that Rush Limbaugh lives in Florida and his vote carries more weight than others, so that needs to be considered."

only in his drug addled mind

____________________

Tybo:

". Not one jew is going to vote for them. "

ah, the ignorance of the Barack voter is shown again
he doesn't seem to know much about the Jewish vote and the current state of American politics

____________________

Connor:

Tybo, what the hell are you talking about? Every poll I've seen shows Sen. Obama with a hefty lead on jewish voters.

What the hell is with the McCain trolls around here?

____________________

Tybo:

in case you missed it, the jewish vote is split between those who support the neocons (pro-israel) and the new democrats who are not pro israel.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

actually, tybo, the jewish vote is like 2:1 democrats. check gallup.

____________________

faithhopelove:

This poll seems about right--though FL may be even tighter given that Obama will probably win at least 9 out of 10 African-Americans and that the party i.d. numbers probably won't favor Republicans (contra this poll). Obama will take a poll that shows him down only 5 during McCain's Palin/convention bounce.

____________________

dpolla8:

Is Florida going to screw this up AGAIN????
As if 2000 wasn't enough. I live in Florida and feel a deja vue is going to take place. Lost ballots, voter fraud...where did that happen in 2000 (oh yeah...FLORIDA)

We will have no one to blame but ourselves if the "Maverick" takes this one.

Whoever said that polls don't matter is correct. This all irreleveant until Election Day.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR