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FL: McCain 51, Obama 45 (SurveyUSA-9/16-17)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
9/16-17/08; 707 Adults, 3.8%
Mode: IVR

Florida
McCain 51, Obama 45
(August: McCain 50, Obama 44)

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

Good news for McCain in FL!
That's all I have to say

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JFactor:

It's probably about 2-4% for McCain at the moment in Florida. Obama has a chance there, but not a big chance.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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NW Patrick:

If McCain can't get Colorado IT DOESN'T MATTER.

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Kevin Kelly:

Look at the sample breakdown - Central and Southwestern Florida are significantly overrepresented in this survey.

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carl29:

SurveyUsa:

"After his pick of Sarah Palin, McCain has lost ground among women" in Florida.


27% voters age 65+?
In 2004 they were 19%.

55% college grad?
In 2004 they were 43%.

22% of black voters going for McCain?
In 2004, Bush got 13% of this vote.

Tie in the Central Florida region, the I-4 corridor, the swing area in the state?
Bush won this area 57% vs. 42% against Kerry.

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mccainandpalinareliars:

Obama has a special surprise in store for poor ole mccain in florida....heh-heh......

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Robi:

Yeah it's total BS when people say florida is up for grabs. No way in hell.

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cabos101:

This poll, if accurate in the cross tabs, is actually good news for Obama...

Why?

The cross tabs are so far off! The african american vote is only 11%?? I think not. That's below 2004 levels, and, as mentioned yesterday, there are nearly 1/2 mil registered black voters who didn't vote in '04. The African American turnout will be about 15% here, meaning this poll would be about 48-48...hmmm, seems pretty consistent then that this state is a TIE!

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jcpok:

This poll is just wrong. Bush got 21% of the AA vote in 2004 and this poll indicates McCain will get 21% of the AA vote... WTF?

According to this poll, Obama will underperform relative to Kerry and McCain will outperform relative to Bush in every single demographic group. Does anyone in their right mind believe that Obama will underperform relative to Kerry among AAs? what about Hispanics? what about youths? This obvious answer for all three is "no way".

This poll is fundamentally flawed..

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thoughtful:

This looks an outlier to me.

The Demographics all over the place. and the Black vote looks very wrong.

Florida should be yellow.

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jcpok:

Sorry. Meant to type "Bush got 12% of the AA vote in 2004 and this poll indicates McCain will get 21% of the AA vote... WTF?"

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carl29:

In 2004:

Miami Area (26%) of the vote statewide
Southern Florida (14%) of the vote statewide
Tampa Area (16%)of the vote statewide
Central Florida (22%) of the vote statewide
Northern Florida (22%)of the vote statewide

Miami Area and Southern Florida are the democratic bastion in the state. The Northern Area is the Republican bastion; however, the swing area is central florida, the I-4 corridor. This area is very critical for Republicans, just imagine: Bush won there 57% of the vote, but carried the state by 5%. Because the most populated areas in the state are Democrats, South Florida, the Republicans need to wrong the score big time out in every other part of the state.

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KipTin:

Looks at the other polls (McCain/Obama)

ARG 9/14-17/08 600 LV 46/46
CNN/Time 9/14-16/08 907 RV 48/48
FOX/Rasmussen 9/14/08 500 LV 49/44
Zogby (Internet) 9/9-12/08 995 LV 52/42
InsiderAdvantage 9/10/08 511 LV 50/42
Quinnipiac 9/5-9/08 1032 LV 50/43

Survey USA (likely voters) at McCain 51/Obama 45 is consistent with several other polls as well as it last month's poll.

"McCain holds 81% of the GOP base. But Obama holds just 71% of Democrats. 23% of Democrats today cross over to vote Republican. Independents split. Among white voters, McCain leads by 15 points. Among Hispanics, McCain leads by 19."

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RaleighNC:

Florida is the new NC...lol. Wild swings from week to week..heck day to day.

Serious question: Do you find yourself a bit too "involved" with poll watching? I do!

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Justin:

These numbers actually represent their LV model, not just adults.

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carl29:

Does it matter that Obama and McCain are tied in Central Florida?

"We kind of laughingly call it the highway of heaven for the candidates, because if they win I-4, they win Florida," said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa. "The I-4 corridor is the new growth part of the state, and the most politically competitive part of the state."

"I always think of Central Florida — the I-4 corridor — as the tipping point of the state," said Aubrey Jewitt, a political-science professor at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. "It's an area of swing voters."

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1magine:

Poll is way off. I still don't think BO ever wins here, but this poll is useless. Who thinks that JM will get 21% of AA vote? Maybe in the wealthiest suburb in AZ?

A 49-44% split in 18-34 age group?

I am not seeing a whole lot of accurate polling today. The 400 per state poll last thread was worse, but its hard to get a sense of what's happening when every guy with a phone or a web site decides to call a couple hundred people on their lunch hour and call it a poll and release results a couple of days later.

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KipTin:

Don't get so bent out of shape about the "black" vote. They are a relatively small demographic in Florida. In this poll, they represent 11%. With 707 likely voters, that is 16 people (21%) who prefere McCain. These 16 might be active military, vets, or pro-life... All very reasonable suppositions.

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KipTin:

I forgot to add that Florida (and Virginia) has a very large military/veteran population.

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faithhopelove:

A new SUSA FL poll was conducted right after McCain's two-day visit, and finds him ahead there by 6 points. McCain earns this lead in part by winning 21% of the African-American vote and 23% of the Democratic vote.

Surely, no one will be surprised to learn that McCain is likely to win a larger percentage of FL African-Americans than Bush did in 2004 (or that fewer African-Americans will vote in FL than in 2004).

Nor will anyone be surprised to learn that Obama is likely to fare 14 points worse among Democrats than Kerry did in 2004, as party loyalty means nothing.

McCain will also certainly benefit from record-high turnout among persons who are 65+ in FL, and from the fact that the gap between male and female voters there will narrow by half. (After all, it's all in this poll.)

See the poll here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83889f62-d3ce-4176-a1a1-164a31cbf1e2

See the 2004 exit poll here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

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carl29:

I think that now I understand why McCain is investing money in the state. This poll has McCain tie in the ultimate "decider" area of the state, Central Florida. This poll has McCain ahead by 6% with a sample that has 27% of voters age 65+. In 2004 they were 19% of voters, so a little over-representation in this poll. Has McCain getting the double of the black vote compared to Bush in 2004, I don't think that the McCain campaign is so navie to believe that. He has lost ground among women since the previous poll, wasn't Sarah supposed to help with that?, and the his previous 9% advantage among independents is now 2%.

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carl29:

Guys, just by paying attention at each campaign's moves one can learn a lot about how firm or shaky things are. Campaigns have their own private pollsters, most probable polling key states on a daily basis. By the time public polls come out, campaign internal polls have the picture very clear about where each candidate stands.

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Connor:

@faithhopelove

"Surely, no one will be surprised to learn that McCain is likely to win a larger percentage of FL African-Americans than Bush did in 2004 (or that fewer African-Americans will vote in FL than in 2004)."

I am. I am surprised. What is your reasoning here?

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faithhopelove:

Connor:

It wasn't reasoning; it was sarcasm.

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Connor:

@faithhopelove

Sorry. After reading the posts of so many delusional, right-wing propagandists on these boards, I falsely assumed you were one of "them."

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djneedle83:

Stupid old white people.

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djneedle83:

21% of AA for McCain is the reverse bradley effect. It's called black people lying to pollsters because they did it to Hillary in the latter primaries.

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djneedle83:

For some reason SurveyUSA continually underestimates Obama's AA support.

For exmaple, this pollster had Clinton earning 18% of the AA vote the week before the Indiana primary. This was the clearest example of that reverse Bradley effect. In the end, Hillary got 11% of that group.

Honestly, I can't see McCain receiving more than 7% of Black vote in any swing or blue state.

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player:

The delusional people on this blog are the left wing crackers with a case of jungle fever. They have fell into the liberal guilt trap and are now being pimped out by the Obama campaign.

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Another Mike:

At some point (now?), Obama may need to go real negative on McCain's support for social security privatization. Combined with the recent collapse of the stock market, this should drive lots of elderly away from McCain.

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mccainandpalinareliars:

player -

You are a racist piece of garbage. Please take your racist rants to foxnews.com so you can be in the company of fellow intellectual midgets. Thanks.


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player:

Florida is McCain's state. Jeb Bush is still popular and Charley Crist is still a popular governor. Virginia is going republican this time. There is a lot of military in that state and George Allen barely lost to Jim Webb last time. Webb has no love for Obama; he is very militaristic in his way of thinking. His son is in Iraq.He also refused to be vetted for the VP position. North Carolina is a McCain state period. Ohio is now solid red. Michigan will be interesting. This is the state that showed the Bradley effect last year during the primaries. On the ballot there was the prospect of keeping affirmative action in place in the state. The polls showed that it was very popular. The exit polls showed that it had passed. However, it was soundly defeated by a wide margin. Nuff said;

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player:

Name callers usually get it put right back at them. You had better think about what you say. Its common knowledge that the Obama campaign constantly uses racism to keep its head above water. Don't even try your crap with me. Your empty suit words mean nothing.

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mccainandpalinareliars:

Pathetic repubs with more BS arguments. By that idiot logic, Louisiana is going blue since Jindal didn't want to be VP. Get a brain, chimp.

What racism, palsy? You are pathetic, just like your ticket - two dimwits with a combined IQ of 25.

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mccainandpalinareliars:

"jungle fever"???

Yeah, you belong with the Limbaugh crowd, you racist piece of feces.


Hey wait a minute, isn't it time for your KKK meeting, player? Grab your bed sheet and mosey on out of here.


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player:

I told you idiot. Your name calling isn't even worth a trip to the dung hill. Nothing that you say sticks. You have nothing but hollow sounding words. Why do you constantly hide behind suggestive names? You are a coward hiding behind racism. You took the bait swine. What a low life.

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damitajo1:

I cannot imagine McCain getting 21 percent of black voters in Florida - when Bush only managed around 15% or less.

Blacks are not as large a demographic in Florida as in other deep south states, so the 11% does not seem out of line.

As a (black) Floridian, I am confident in my belief that McCain will win -- by about 4pts. I'll come back in November and watch the returns.

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