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FL: Obama 47, McCain 42 (Datamar-10/12-13)

Topics: PHome

Datamar Inc
10/12-13/08; 1,328 RV, 2.7%
Mode: IVR

Florida
Obama 47, McCain 42

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

Detamar who?
This is the first time I hear about this pollster

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falcon79:

datawho??
oh well they show Obama leading by 5 so they MUST be accurate ;)

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JCK:

Big sample though. I don't see anything about this poll at the link provided (and, like IT, have not heard of these guys).

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carl29:

Datawho? This is just silly. Now, everbody and their grandma wants to conduct polls. Although I like the numbers, I am not taking this into account, guys :-(

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Mike_in_CA:

go to their website carl29. They've conducted a bunch of polls in the past, including for the CA Gov race, which they nailed pretty well. By not taking it into account you are being as ridiculous as boomshak. You need a better reason other than you don't know who they are...

Besides, the numbers look perfectly in line with every other poll. Obama is winning Florida by 4-5%, that's obvious.

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RussTC3:

They did polling during the Florida primary for both the Democratic and Republican races.

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NW Patrick:

Further confirmation that this state is at least light blue. Powell to endorse OBAMA! YAY!

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GrampsMcCain:

Gramps McCain/Royal Crown Tracking Poll:
Boomshack 51
Palin 25
Undecided 24

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decided:

@NW Patrick:

where does Powell endorse Obama?
Do you have a link?

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orange24:

Poll Postition Polls:

Florida InAdv/PollPosition Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
North Carolina InAdv/PollPosition Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
West Virginia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 49, Obama 47 McCain +2

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carl29:

Mike_in_CA, wow you are really offended :-(!!

I didn't mean to denigrate this pollster; however, I live in Florida and I have never heard this pollster before. I don't know how reliable is a pollster working with a state with which he or she is not familiar. I checked all the polls in the state of Florida back in 2004 and couldn't find any poll from this "individual." I'm sorry but I wouldn't take it too seriously. It is just my opinion.

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orange24:

We're hovering around 50% in FL. If that keeps until Nov 4 - landslide!

InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 612 LV 48 44 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 51 46 Obama +5
Research 2000 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 52 44 Obama +8
Mason-Dixon 10/04 - 10/06 625 LV 48 46 Obama +2

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orange24:

North Caroline is trickier, but McCain was up 12 there less than a month ago:

InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 474 LV 48 46 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 48 48 Tie
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 48 43 Obama +5
WSOC-TV 10/06 - 10/07 500 LV 46 48 McCain +2
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 617 LV 46 49 McCain +3
CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 666 LV 49 49 Tie
PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1202 LV 50 44 Obama +6

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carl29:

RussTC3,

This is the only poll I could find from Datamar in Florida:

Datamar* 05/14 - 05/18 607
Giuliani 27
Thompson 22
Romney 18
McCain 12

Datamar* 05/14 - 05/18 413 LV
Clinton 24
Obama 19
Edwards 26

Obviously is from back in 2007. Isn't laughable how things turned out?

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jeepdad:

What's all this talk about Powell endorsing? I just did a Google news search and couldn't find anything.

I'm hoping that Chuck Hagel will endorse Obama in the next few days. That would be sure to get some attention.

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Stonecreek:

This is apparently a robo-caller pollster. Robo calling tends to give a slightly more Republican result than live calling (for reasons that I don't pretend to understand, much less explain.) Given that, and discounting the unknown quality of this particular pollster, FL is looking unexpectedly strong for Obama.

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Viperlord:

Very interesting. If this is a generally reliable pollster as you guys say, then this just confirms the Obama trend in FL.

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cinnamonape:

Datamar did many surveys in the primaries in Florida...going back to the pre-primary season in May 2007. They seem to be "familiar" with Florida. It's hard to know how accurate they would be given the peculiarities of that Democratic primary.

But they also did a very accurate poll of the Schwarzenegger-Angelides race in California.

They seem to be mainly working in Florida however, which may be why many of us lack familiarity with them.

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cinnamonape:

Oh BTW Datamar uses an automated calling method, which accounts for their large sample size. For those concerned about the "Bradley-Wilder Effect" that might reduce it.

But given the geographical and cultural heterogeneity of Florida it would be essential to sample things carefully there.

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raisethewhiteflag:

where is boomcrack?

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KipTin:

Powell to endorse Obama?... so soon after he was a extremely positive character defense witness for Senator Stevens of Alaska for his corruption trial? Are you sure Obama would want that endorsement right now?

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Well in a perfect world Obama wouldnt want Powells endorsement for other reasons besides being a witness for the Defendent Sen. Stevens...i'm kinda picturing this nice shiny general talking about wmd, pointing at a picture that mite as well been colored in crayon.

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Vin4Obama:

@jeepdad
Powell endorsement is being seriously speculated by Larence O'Donnell..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/colin-powell-is-ready-to_b_134777.html

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JFactor:

The turnaround in Florida has been dramatic and shift. Just three weeks ago Obama was still trailing by at least a couple of points and Florida seemed to be the hardest swing state for Obama. McCain is in deep, deep trouble.
__________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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statsguy:

I was sampled in this Survey. I am a statistician who lives, and works, in Florida. I participate in most surveys to check out how the questions are asked. In this instance, the survey asked for classification information such as party affiliation, age, gender, and income range. It also asked about job approval for Bush, and Congress, and the preference for the Presidential election. I can't recall the order of all the questions, although it did offer McCain as option 1 and Obama as option 2, among others. I found nothing biased in the questions that were asked. They said it would take 8 minutes, and I'm guessing I was done in about 6 minutes by answering quickly. They gave the DataMar name at the end and I used Google to find the same site as referenced here. It didn't show many current polls, but I did believe it was a real poll when I finished it.

Statsguy

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