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FL: Obama 48, McCain 47 (PPP-10/16-19)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
10/16-19/08; 1,158 LV, 2.9%
Mode: IVR

Florida
Obama 48, McCain 47

 

Comments
mysticlaker:

Florida will be doozy. I hope it's the whip cream on top the sweet potato pie....

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Mister H:

*Waits for Boomshak to insist that this means that Florida is obviously goingt to McCain...

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Isher:

This is what PPP was hinting at yesterday... up more in Indiana than in Florida.

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Mister H:

*Waits for Boomshak to insist that this obviously means that Florida is going to McCain....even though other polls have Obama ahead by even more.

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Hope Reborn:

I love PPP... scared everyone and now they have IN +2, FL +1

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alankeysisawesome:

We are ****ed!

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BrookLynda:

McPlanecrash's brief surge in FL seems to be petering out, swinging back to BHO. The Powell endorsement will have more effect here than anywhere.

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rdw4potus:

Anti-Boomwank says that this poll by a liberal nutjob hack pollster shows only a 1 point lead by Osama. Factor in PPP's 30 point liberal bias and 5.8% for MOE and it's clear that McPOTUS has FL locked up by 34%.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Screw FL we don't need it anymore thankfully.

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alankeysisawesome:

I don't know why my friends disappear when bad polls come out. At least I'm here still! Romney the Mormon '012!!!!!

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straight talk:

NOw that FL is tightening! It is all about the ground game baby! And word on the street is OBama supporters are flooding the polls! McCain you are still alive my friend, but be afraid, be very afraid!

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thoughtful:

Well a bit of tightening in Florida, I think that we may have jesse Jackson to thank for that.

I am very surprised at his lack of class. Obama should restore a better lead in next week's polls.

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Eddie:

Finally AKIA has accepted the inevitable... Let the defeat wash over you, it's ok.

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KipTin:

Florida back to Pollster toss-up--

Previous PPP Florida poll--

9/27-28/08 941 LV Obama 49 McCain 46

-------

Other recent Florida polls--

FOX/Rasmussen 10/19/08 1000 LV
Obama 48 McCain 49

SurveyUSA 10/16/08 553 LV
Obama 47 McCain 49

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Alankeysisawesome is awesome.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Obama bin Laden will have to do a lot better than that if he wants to win Florida...PPP is a democrat pollster, meaning McCain is another 10 points ahead there. Yes!!!

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Trosen:

Those crosstabs are very encouraging for Obama. They show a nearly dead-even Party ID. that will not be the case at the polls. The D's will have at least a 5 or 6 point advantage there. Seemingly the only good news for McCain over the last few days as far as state polls go is that FL is back in the yellow. Without FL, McCain is toast. With FL, McCain maybe at least has a (rapidly melting) snowball's chance in hell.

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sunnymi:


This PPP poll of FL gives me hope for Obama.
The party ID advantage for the Dems shown in the latest registration statistics does not shown up in the poll (I am guessing there are several Dems that did not get called by this poll!)

Registration Statistics:
D 42%; R 36%; I 22%

This poll:
D 42%; R 42%; I 16%

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mattn:

This may not have flipped to McCain, but it does seem to have clearly narrowed. But how does McCain win a close Florida election if the Florida GOP isn't working all out for him and he's focussing on PA? I don't see it. And if he does keep resources in FL (which he must, since he absolutely can't win without it) what happens to him in VA and NC?

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Inkan1969:

What a serendipitous turn of events that the Florida polls have all narrowed to statistical ties, right in the same week of a BIG PUSH for Florida by the Obama campaign. :-D

With efforts like these:

http://www.theledger.com/article/20081020/NEWS/810200364/0/APE

all week, I think the Obama campaign will take care of the Florida polls...

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Trosen:

Ok.. correction.. 4% as of August. But there were a bunch of new registrations before the 10/6 deadline, and most of them were Democratic (insert ACORN joke here trolls). Do the link:

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp

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SEems like theres less and less proAmerican states. LOL.

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Trosen:

Speaking of Obama appearences in FL, guess where I'll be in a few hours.. =)

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Although it would be great if FL gave Obama their EC vote after what we were put through in 2000, and again throughout the primaries with all of the stupid political stuff within the DNC.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Obama doesn't need Florida - not unless he wants to start 2009 with a MANDATE!

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KipTin:

Typical Obamanation blaming someone else for tightening of the poll. Jesse Jackson had NOTHING to do with these polls. Most people were not even paying attention to his comments, or else just said "more of the same." And they do not tie Jesse Jackson to Obama. Obama made sure of that.
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Word on the street in Florida is that Republicans requested over 200,000 more absentee ballots than Democrats.
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This is not a bad poll for either candidate. It confirms a toss-up state.

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muckinello:

Here is a small poll between us. If you had a 1000 bucks to bet in Vegas on one of the following two scenarios (knowing that both are higher risk than usual):
1- McCain narrow victory
2- Obama landslide (+350 EV)
What would you choose?

Last week I was considering option 1, but the last two days I am more looking at option 2

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straight talk:

McCain will Lose Fl by 5% on election day! Polls like these motivate Obama supporters! But make no mistake about it news comin out of florida is Obama supporters are flooding the polling centers! As well as in Nc! YOu see it comes down to the ethusiasm gap! If McCain begins to fade nationally, his support won't show! And we already Know that he is polling under where Bush was at this point in Battleground Polls! Now McCain missed a real opportunity by not selecting a better VP. She is turning into an SNL joke gone bad!

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

alankeyesisawesome wrote:

"Obama bin Laden"

Hahahaha oh my gosh...wait, that's hilarious, I have to catch my breath and stop laughing

will have to do a lot better than that if he wants to win Florida...PPP is a democrat pollster, meaning McCain is another 10 points ahead there. Yes!!!"

So does McCain trailing by one in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll mean he is also down by 11 points?


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Trosen:

No Kip, I'd say it's a very worrisome poll for McCain. McCain NEEDS FL. Obama would very much like to swing FL and make this a laugher, but has ohh.. about 75 other avenues to 270 without it. And here's a poll showing a 1 point differential in party ID, when in actuality the breakdown is about 5 or 6 +D. And with that, Obama has a 1 point lead (obviously within the MOE). Not good at all for McCain, no matter how you spin it.

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Hope Reborn:

Warning to McCain: Michelle is speaking to a larger crowd right now than you got this morning, and tonight in Miami, it'll be a crowd larger than you see all week....

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Inkan1969:

It looks like the McCain minisurge had its largest effects in Ohio and Florida. Those are the only two battleground states whose polls have trended to McCain. I had thought that NC was trending that way as well. But now we've had so many NC polls pushing the state to Obama. And in every other battleground state except Indiana (unless PPP is the start of a trend...) Obama is surging. Now Obama can retake Ohio and Florida, and sweep up ALL the battleground states.

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cinnamonape:

BREAKING NEWS: McCain has replaced Palin with "Joe The Plumber" as his VP selection! McCain advisors say off the records that "We see a crack there, and we're gonna go for it!"
Sarah Palin announces that "She's saddened that family problems in Alaska require me to drop out...but I'll be back in 2012!"

In association with the change in the ticket McCain has stated that he's going to offer those with a $40,000 annual income a tax rebate of $210,000 so that "people like Joe can buy the businesses of their dreams".

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sunnymi:
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NorthernObserver:

Let's have a poll from GA.

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Trosen:

Also, I'd say if anything has moved the polls a little bit for McCain the last few days in FL, it was the anti-Castro rhetoric at his FIU speech, not because of the "good reverand" Jacka$$.. err Jackson.

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Batony:

This is not the Democratic Primary. I think people are getting the two confused. As an insider told me...Obama needs to be up by at least 5 to 7 points to win these red states.

Interesting notes on early voting:

"A look at early voting in several key battleground states in the presidential election:


NEVADA

Nevada Democrats have a big jump on Republicans in early voting in the state's urban centers of Las Vegas and Reno, election officials say.

Cumulative early-vote totals in the Las Vegas area show ballots were cast by 31,875 Democrats and 13,371 Republicans through midday Monday. Republicans had the advantage in absentee balloting, 6,616 to 6,161 through noon Monday.

In the Reno area, a similar pattern occurred twice as many Democrats than Republicans voted early through noon Monday.

Nevada has five electoral votes.


FLORIDA

Florida voters hoping to skip long lines on Election Day found themselves waiting for hours at some polling places Monday as early voting opened statewide.

Republicans have requested 295,000 absentee ballots statewide compared with 199,000 Democrats.

Florida has 27 electoral votes.


GEORGIA

About 12 percent of the state's roughly 5.6 million registered voters have already cast ballots for the Nov. 4 general election. Statewide on Friday 55,709 people voted.

Georgia doesn't track absentee ballots by political party.

The counties with the most early voters are DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and Chatham.

Georgia has 15 electoral votes.


NORTH CAROLINA

Early voting opened Thursday and drew some 214,000 voters to the polls in the first two days, leading to hours-long lines in parts of the state and lengthy schedules for poll workers.

In the first few days, the balloting clearly favored Democrats, with those registered with the party making up 62 percent of those who had voted. Only 22 percent of the voters had been registered Republicans.

North Carolina has 15 electoral votes."

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Ax-man:

I have been reading your comments for the past few months and you guys are hilarious. I wish you were nicer to the Republicans in the site, because they make it so much fun for us. If we are more civilized, progressive and educated than they are, shouldn't we treat people like Boomshack with a little more respect? Yes, he makes very foolish statements. His knowledges of statistics and his lack of common sense is amusing, but no personal insults. We are better than that. With that said, let's enjoy the next two weeks. Barrack is going to go medieval on McCain.

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carl29:

Correction!!!!!!!

In Florida:

Republicans have requested 295,000 absentee ballots statewide compared with 199,000 Democrats.

295,000 - 199,000 = 96,000 MORE, NOT 295,000 MORE, LOL!!!

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Hoosier:

The funny thing is, we don't need Florida. Even without it, we'll get more than 270 EVs. I'd still like to take FL and (fantasy here) IN just to kick Gramps and Barbie farther into the gutter.

The fact that McSlime is still having to waste time and money defending formerly deep red states (NC, MO, and IN) show that he is screwed.

As for PA, that has become McSlime's "fatal attraction". Or, as one pundit opined, McSlime and PA is like Gollum and The Ring from "Lord of the Rings": "Me wants it!! Must take it!! My Precious!!"

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deeznutsrepubs:

Before clinton-obama. nuff said. also, entusiasm gap will likely help obama carry florida.


I don't envy Obama however. Bush has made a real mess of things. We are f*cked for the next 2 or 3 years at least. Can't we bring charges of treason against bush? The guy single-handedly ruined this country. Should he not be held responsible?? While we are at it, cheney and the whole lot of 'em should be strung up.


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Trosen:

Batony, I'd tend to agree that Obama needs a bit of a cushion in some of these states to be safe on election Day, however your "insider" is overstating the percentages a bit.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Jordan - San Marcos TX

No, because fox news is fair and balanced.

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Batony:

@Carl29:

Who are you correcting? I'm confused...lol

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alankeysisawesome:

We're ****ed. alankeyesisawesome is an imposter. I've had this screenname for weeks. I'm a moderate Republican and I can see the light.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

True, they always give the President's side, and the Vice President's side.

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carl29:

This PPP is under-representing kids hugely!!!

This sample has 14% people under the age of 29. In 2004, there were 17% people under 29 voting in Florida. Believe me, this time there will be more kids voting in the state. Just yesterday when I went to vote, there were kids from the University of Miami voting as well. They stood there in line for 3 hours just to cast their ballots. Of course that they were Obama supporters, with buttons and everything included. It seems that the Obama campaign are driving them from Campus to the polling places. It was really "heroic" to vote yesterday in Florida, but those kids stayed there standing in the sun.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

McCain should make Joe The Plumber his Secretary of Treasury because only a man like him understand real Americans. May god bless his tax-dodging soul because he is the hero that refuses to give his money to the democratic congress.

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Batony:

@alankeysisawesome:

You are not convincing when you say we are ****ed. Not even Mondale or Dukakis supporters gave up that easily.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@carl29

Sounds like the educational system gone wrong if these students are voting for Obama. I would remind them that if their mothers had made the decision to abort them, that they could not be standing in line waiting to vote. Pathetic!

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fed:


FLORIDA
(66 of 67 counties reporting) html (Election Code 9250)
151,610

Party

Dem
56.2%
Rep
29.3%
No/Oth
14.4%

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cinnamonape:

Here's a very funny post from a Conservative Young Republican who runs a website in Arizona.

http://americannonsense.com/?p=15898

He did his own "early-voting" exit poll in an upper class precinct outside of Las Vegas.

SPANK!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Batony

Ignore him, he is a fraud.

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BrookLynda:

alankeyesisawesome is a parody troll. And a very funny one, at that!

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BarackO'Clinton:

Boomshak Yard Sign Poll (10/19-10/20)
1,000 Yards MOE: 2.5%
Method: Driving Around in Heavy GOP Neighborhoods

McCain Yard Signs: 46%
Obama Yard Signs: 28%

Conclusion - McCain Surge!!! Obamabots better be worried because Osama Hussien Been Lyin' is in trouble!

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straight talk:

People seem to believe that Obama needs to be up by a cushion! But they fail to realize that these polls are ignoring the youth vote turnout!The college students are voting this yr! And when did people start confusing McCain numbers with HIllary! During the latter parts of the primary McCain was still losing votes to Paul and Barr! Hillary was a Closer! And folks I do not believe that the evangelicals are going to show. Why? Because he has not been strong on immigration and Abortion until he fell behind in the polls.

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sunnymi:


North Carolina has turned BLUE on the map.

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UpstateProgressive:

LOL! alankeyes finally blows his cover:

alankeysisawesome: We're ****ed. alankeyesisawesome is an imposter. I've had this screenname for weeks. I'm a moderate Republican and I can see the light.

BTW, why not join the Dems, alankeyes? We're for balanced budgets (remember the good economic years and healthy surpluses under Clinton) and, after all, reality has a liberal bias.


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falcon79:

lol @ baracko'clinton
good one :)
and NC goes blue!!!!!

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SoloBJ:

Did McCain have two rallies in PA today?

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Batony:

So according to the experts, the tracking polls most likely to be accurate are from Rasmussen. Here is a quote:

From Nate Silver:
"In summation, none of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island. Conversely, the only one of the trackers that I consider obviously dubious is Zogby."

And I guess surveyusa is the number 1 pollster. Right?


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BrookLynda:

North Carolina, light blue? McPlanecrash just crapped his Depends.

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alankeysisawesome:

We're ****ed.

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cinnamonape:

Sorry...linky no work!

But here's the story from The Neocon Express.

"I just spent a depressing 3 hours conducting an exit poll at a Las Vegas early voting station. The Location was in a more affluent Western suburb of Las Vegas, on the edge of Summerlin...at the Vons shopping center on Rampart, between Charleston and Sahara. It was a glorious day in Las Vegas so what better way to spend a few hours than by hanging outside a polling station and randomly sampling voters, right?

Nevada is a swing state, and the middle to upper middle class suburbs of Las Vegas, like this location, are a crucial indicator of how the state might go. Early voting started at this location yesterday and the lines have been long and non-stop all day, with people waiting in line an average of 45 minutes to cast their votes. I randomly interviewed over 150 voters after they cast their ballots. I stood outside with a clipboard and certainly looked the part of a pollster. My question went like this: “Hi, I'm conducting a quick, random exit poll; of course all participants are anonymous. Was it John McCain or Barack Obama for you?”

I could not possibly have talked to everyone who voted during the three hour time frame but I got a very good random sample. The results were devastating to me.

Let’s get to the results [of the respondants]:

Obama: 70% McCain: 26% Other 4%

If I include the number of people who declined to give an answer, than the breakdown went like this:

Obama 53% McCain 20% Other 3%
Declined to participate: 24%.

My gut instinct tells me that the vast majority of those who “declined to participate” were McCain supporters, but of course, I have no way of knowing that for sure....Anyway, that’s how I spent three hours of my weekend and as a McCain supporter, it was deeply depressing. McCain will need to carry rural and Northern Nevada by a wide margin to overcome what will certainly be a devastating lose in Clark County."

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The Dude:

People, mark my words on Florida. Obama will seal the deal next Wednesday 10/29 when he delivers his 30 minute presentation immediately PRIOR to the start of game 6 of the World Series featuring (thank god) Tampa vs. the Phillies. In the days to follow you will see him up by 4-6 points, I predict.

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javakah:

To be honest, I think that Virginia, where I live, may be a huge key to this election.

Pennsylvania may be alluring to McCain because if he takes all of the current yellow states on the map (FL,NC,IN,OH,MO,ND,MT,NV), if he takes Pennsylvania, he will win (and can even lose either ND or MT). However his chances of flipping Pennsylvania seem extremely low.

It would seem better for him to focus on states that have had a stronger Republican records/tendencies and trying to stop them from flipping.

McCain needs to pick up 17 more electoral votes (assuming all yellow states go to him). The most likely candidates then would be NM (5), CO (9), VA (13) and NH (4).

The only way it works out for him is either to get all three of NM, CO, and NH (18), losing VA, or else to win VA and get one more of the other 3, which seems like a stronger possibility.

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carl29:

The Obama campaign is very, very organized in the college campuses. As I told you, there were those kids from UM voting at my precint. When I came home and looked for the events in the O. webpage, I found that indeed they are driving them from campus to voting places. I signed up to drive college kids whenever the campaign wants me to. Regardless of what you think, it is great to see the youth engaged. Just a "non-patriotic" person would like to see the youth of America not interested in their future and the future of their country. If I had come across with McCain kids, I would be saying the same thing: it is good to see young people interested in the political process :-)!!!

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alankeysisawesome:

Sigh. Our damn VP candidate thinks the VP is in "charge of the Senate." I hope for McCain's sake this doesn't get out on the national news.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/21/palin-vp-senate/

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Batony:

In 2004 on this date:

Florida:

SurveyUSA
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 49%

Minnesota:

Rasmussen
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 47%

New Mexico:

ARG
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%

Iowa:

Zogby
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 48%


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Isn't the reason that more McCain voters choose absentee voting because they are too infirmed to get out of the house? Whereas Obama supporters swamp that edge and totally crush McCain supporters when it comes to early voting cause they can't wait to get out and support Senator Obama.

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Batony:

From PPP in Florida:

Key finding: "There has been some movement in John McCain's direction with both white voters and Hispanics over the last three weeks. McCain's margin has increased five points with whites, from 52-41 to 55-39. Hispanic voters, who have swung back and forth both in PPP's polls and those of most organizations conducting surveys in Florida, are supporting McCain 50-46 after going for Obama by the exact same margin in our previous poll."

Look for McCain to solidify Florida in the next few days.

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straight talk:

Poor McCain! I am sorry Rich McCain! lol If he had just got his Vp pick right! Maybe he should have chosen tom RIdge if he needed Penn! His Vp does not understand the definition of the office in which she is pursuing! It is sad!

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alankeyesisawesome:

JUST REVEALED:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_el_pr/obama_grandmother

Obama's grandmother not gravely ill at all! She just has a broken hip, well BOO HOO HOO, cry me a river. Non-news, not at all close to death, and now clear that Obama going there for a photo op. He tried to convince EVERYONE she was dying or close to death, and he will not be able to deliver. I guess he is just so fearful that he will lose the election that he is willing to go to ANY LENGTH to lie to the American people and engage their sympathy. SHAME SHAME SHAME!

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carl29:

At this point in 2004:

FLORIDA

Average: Bush 47.7% Kerry 46.5%


Research 2000 | 10/18-10/21 Bush 47 Kerry 48

Strategic Vision(R)| 10/18-20 Bush 49 Kerry 46

Quinnipiac | 10/15-10/19 Bush 48 Kerry 47

SurveyUSA | 10/15-10/17 Bush 49 Kerry 50

Mason-Dixon | 10/14-10/17 Bush 48 Kerry 45

Univ of North Fl| 10/10-10/15 Bush 44 Kerry 45

Strategic Vision(R)| 10/12-14 Bush 49 Kerry 45

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straight talk:

White voters and Hispanics maybe going back with the republicans according PPP, but keep in mind that this poll does not account for the 600,000+ advantage that the Obama camp has generated. The party Id is what making it look closer! Why? Because thy want to scare obama Supporters to the polls! PPP is a partisan pollster! But they are pretty accurate!

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masselo:

@ alankeysisawesome:

i am gonna forward it to MSNBC and CNN

this is really funny.

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

So Obama is doing much better than Kerry is every one of those states except Florida?

would you please show us the polls on this date in 2004 for: North Carolina, Virgina, Georgia, Indiana, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

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NMMatt:

Oklahoma. The last American state.

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Batony:

@straight talk:

You were credible until you said they want to "scare Obama supporters to the polls" and then you follow that up with "PPP being an a partisan pollster! But they are accurate."

C'mon now. Was PPP even around in 2004? I only remember during the 2008 DEM Primary.

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Mike A.:

Barack Obama's 85-year-old grandmother broke her hip recently AND is "gravely ill," her brother said Tuesday.


uhh read the whole sentence idiots.

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RussTC3:

Pollster.com has moved North Carolina from Toss Up to Leans Obama.

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Pat:

@alankeyesisawesome:

It depends what other complications she has as the result of Hip fracture. You just showed that you are very un-educated.

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carl29:

Obama is doing well among Hispanics compared to Kerry. In 2004 Bush carried Hispanics by 12%, right now McCain is up by 4% among Hispanics. If Obama keeps McCain lead that small, he's got a good shot at the state. That without taking into account new registered voters, young people, and AA.

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A broken hip on an 85-year old is a gravely ill injury. That's insensitive to suggest Obama is using her for political gain. How is it advantage for him to leave campaigning. Didn't seem to work out too well for McCain. Obviously you've never had an elderly loved one break a hip. That's basically the beginning of the end for them.

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straight talk:

You guys who think Obams is leaving the Campain Trail for a Photo Op! Better hope that is the case because nationally the polls are growing again! But McCain can't attack Obama while he is tending to his Grandmother! That will drive his poll numbers down!

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Batony:

Is this the "typical white person" grandmother Obama lectured us about by in the spring? Sorry I couldn't resist.

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alankeyesisawesome:

I can't wait to see the photos of Obama lounging on the beach in Hawaii...I bet when he's not doing the photo-op he will be doing a mini-vacation for himself.

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Thatcher:

@Batony -

You mean the one that loves him unconditionally - just as he does her?

Did you not get the point of what he was saying at that time?

And part deux - you should have resisted. Bad taste.

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politicalmomma2:

It is clear that the poster who indicated that a broken hip in an 85 year old (she will be 86 this weekend, I believe) is insensitive and not especially knowledgeable about the elderly. This is an extremely serious condition for an older person and can precipitate other even more grave conditions due to the imobilization it causes. It is sad that some people have no compassion. It reminds me of the Republican group gathered to watch the VP debates: posted video showed them sneering when Biden mentioned his dead wife and daughter. Nice folks.

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Batony:

@straight talk:

LOL...

Of course McCain can attack Obama POLICIES while he is visiting his ailing grandmother. Is Obama all of sudden going to take down his 1 billion ads he has up?...c'mon now use common sense.

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1magine:

Sadly - this is not a parody. Sydney God forbid passes - and she is sitting at 'THE DESK'.


http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/21/palin-vp-senate/

DOH!@!!!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@politicalmomma2

Well, for all we know, Biden killed them for the insurance money.

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Batony:

@Thatcher:

You got me. You are right, that was in bad taste.

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NW Patrick:
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jeepdad:

Obama up HUGE in new Pew poll!

New National Pew Poll: Obama +14

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/10/obama-widens-lead-in-pew-poll.html

Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain, now running ahead of him 52 percent to 38 percent among registered voters with 10 percent undecided in a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 16-19. The margin of error is 2 points. That's a 4 point gain from Pew's poll conducted Oct. 9-12. Obama's margin when only likely voters are included is 53 percent to 39 percent.
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kerrchdavis:

@batony

We're all still waiting for McCain to start attacking POLICIES. Are you implying that he will suddenly start to do so now that Obama is leaving the campaign trail?

And btw, spinning a tax cut for middle America into "socialism" does not count as "discussing policies."

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NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome let me guess. You're a "Christian."

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OneAngryDwarf:

Is NC light blue on the map?

Oh well lunch time...

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straight talk:

@ batony:

You are right! But I am right about PPP being partisan, pretending to be fair and balanced. Obama is up by more than 1%. If you guys think for a second that the Obama campain likes to see poll numbers show that he has a comfortable lead in places like Oh and Fl, u are kidding yourselves. This poll intensifies voters who might be thinking that this thing is in the bag. By the way Obama will win this state by 5%. John has ignored some social issues to conservitives aka evangelicals. He is gettin the anti-Obama votes now! But they want to here about border security and abortion a little more! Do not assume that steve smicht and company can generate the type of turnout that Karl Rove turned out in O4.McCain is moderate Republican ! He has always been, that is why he voted against the bush tax cuts until he started to make a run for office!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick

Diciples of Christ to be precise.

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licinfl:

My grandmother (who was living on her own at the time) fell and broke her hip at 85. She failed rapidly in the hospital and died very shortly after the injury.
Any injury/illness can be very grave at that age.

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jeepdad:

NEVADA (Insider Advantage): O 47 M 47
NO CAROLINA (Insider Advantage): O 49 M 48
VERMONT (Macro International): O 51 M 29

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politicalmomma2:

Dear Alankeyes,
I wonder if it's possible for folks to hold differing political perspectives and ideas and, at the same time, to engage in civil discourse and to be respectful of others as human beings. You statement about Senator Biden was not enlightened or thoughtful or especially intelligent. I would say it's just cruel.

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cinnamonape:

Alankeyes: The risk of mortality for elderly individuals immediately after a broken hip is about 10%, and within a year it's 20-35% as a result of complications from the injury or surgery. To suggest that this is a minor injury for an elderly individual is sheer ignorance.

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I have a hard time believing Nevada is tied. I live here -Obama is up 10 in Washoe of all places and where I live in teh Uni corridor it's Obama like 3-1, which is normally a pretty moderate, truck driving, workers neighborhood.

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NW Patrick:

Wow the country is center right yet this show has taken off like wildfire!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/21/arts/television/21madd.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

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alankeyesisawesome:

@politicalmomma2

Well, not a statement, just a speculation. I mean, we do not know whether or not he did it for the insurance money, but we cannot write off all possibilities, now can we?

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NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome you're so Christ like. People like you bringing so many into the cause! NOT!

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DTM:

Things are getting interesting when people are reverse-cherry-picking polls from 2004.

Anyway, RCP has their 2004 polling data available on their website. Here is North Carolina, and you can click through to other states from there:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nc_polls.html

By the way, there are exactly zero polls showing a Kerry lead in North Carolina. Same with Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, and Colorado (although there were a couple ties in the last). In Georgia there were no polls showing Bush with less than a double-digit lead. Kerry had no leads in Missouri or Nevada after 9/3.

Just a little taste of how things are a wee bit different this time.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Well, Democrats have made themselves the true hypocrites...now sympathizing with Obama's grandmother who broke her hip, and on the other hand making all sorts of agist remarks about McCain, even though he is just 13 years younger. Hypocrisy.

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Nowukkers:

alankeyesisawesome:

You are exhibiting evidence that often Christ's teachings are the furthest things from the minds of many modern evangelicals. In fact, I'd bet that if Christ were to return today, he'd be drummed out of your movement for being too liberal.

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NW Patrick:

Let's take a look at the big picture and poll average today vs. 2004 shall we kids?:)

RCP Average FINAL 50.0% 48.5% 1.0% Bush +1.5
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5

Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28 - 10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

And today:

RCP Average 10/14 - 10/20 -- -- 50.1 43.2 Obama +6.9

Rasmussen Reports 10/18 - 10/20 3000 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/18 - 10/20 1211 LV 2.9 50 42 Obama +8
Hotline/FD 10/18 - 10/20 791 LV 3.5 47 41 Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/18 - 10/20 2384 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/18 - 10/20 2299 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV -- 53 39 Obama +14
ABC News/Wash Post 10/16 - 10/19 1336 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
GWU/Battleground 10/14 - 10/20 1000 LV 3.1 48 47 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/15 - 10/19 1086 LV 3.0 47 41 Obama +6

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straight talk:

Rcp is so mad with the new national poll of pew that they did not even average them in. Heck they did not even average in Cbs/NYT. Biased!

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NW Patrick:

Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV. O +14 WOW thats a good sample size for a typical national poll.

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cinnamonape:

Well I certainly would worry about McCain surviving if he broke his hip, too. In fact, when he stumbled at the last debate I was really worried about the guy. Fortunately, we would have Sarah Palin to step in and lead the country.

BTW Have you guys ever considered that you are actually alienating people from your party and candidates at rates of about 5:1 with your insensitive nasty comments? The stuff about "raping his grandmother" would certainly have been a winner to those over 65..and now you are treating a broken hip as an insignificant injury and an insurance scam?

Just like "womens health"? Jeeeshhh!

BTW It's "Disciples of Christ"...some Christian!

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Batony:

@Straight talk:

You are exactly right when you say conservatives don't like McCain. That's why it is so dumb for liberals and the media to keep attacking Palin. She is the only CONSERVATIVE in the race, and you are just making her more popular with the base that WILL show up to the polls in NC, VA, FL, OH, etc.

By the way the point of showing the polls I did show from 2004 was to indicate anything can still happen.

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Nowukkers:

alankeyesisawesome:
"Well, Democrats have made themselves the true hypocrites...now sympathizing with Obama's grandmother who broke her hip, and on the other hand making all sorts of agist remarks about McCain, even though he is just 13 years younger. Hypocrisy."


Big difference - Obama's grandma isn't running for POTUS - and has never suggested that she would be physically capable of performing the demands of that office, let alone pschologically sound enough (and I doubt that McCain is the latter - POW internment can really screw your mind). Let's compare apples with apples.

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NW Patrick:

This is why kids we need to look at the polling AVERAGES. Last time the polling AVERAGE was the exact result of the election. I'll take OBAMA up 6.9 ANYDAY.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Nowukkers

Now you're just splitting hairs.

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Thatcher:

@straight talk:

Actually - they've included Pew ... BUT ... they haven't even posted the CBS poll on their site yet ...

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straight talk:

IF State polling follows the national polling trends than McCain may see more bad numbers coming out of Battleground states! I think Obama is going to carry Mo! That crown of 100,000+ has me convinced that McCain is in trouble! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!

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NW Patrick:

Batony let me correct your dumbass. The OBAMA CAMPAIGN has literally steared away from Palin. So they must have listened to you. To say the public watches our posts ripping Palin really makes a difference is like saying the few RACISTS that show up to Palin rallies speak for ALL Republicans.

We already imposed that IGNORE PALIN strategy and IT WORKED.

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NW Patrick:

I wonder if the thugs think Jesus himself would be close to being a socialist or a capitalist? Hmmmmmmm.

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Batony:

@NW Patrick:

Did I say the Obama Campaign...you fool. Man I hate your old ass...

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@Alankeysisawesome

I'm so glad you've come around to see McCain is done for, also it seems like you're starting to lean Democrat. Disreguard that imposter AlankeyEsisawesome, he obviously made a name similar to yours to make it seem like you still support McCain. It shows that he's just trying to fool people by being so over the top for McC. Obviously AlankeyEsisawesome cant come to terms with McCain supporters abandoning him so he had to make a fake name copying you.

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Nowukkers:

alankeyesisawesome:

In what way am I splitting hairs? Your man thinks he can run the show. Yet he has exhibited senior moments and temperament lapses that make me genuinely afraid for this country's security. Sen. Thad Cochran (R) of MS said that "The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine," because of his wretched temper. Cochran isn't exactly a liberal.

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Batony:

@Nowukkers

Thad Cochran is on the appropriations committee, and he hates McCain, b/c McCain kept criticizing his "pet projects". A lot of Republicans in congress don't mind seeing McCain lose b/c of his stance against pork-barrell spending.

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pion:

@Batony: There is a difference between 'attacking' Sarah Palin and pointing out her weaknesses. I would also like to point out that that a surprising number of the 'conservative elite' (aka, thinking and educated conservatives) have concluded that Palin is not qualified and endorsed Obama as a result; in no particular order

C. Bukley
K. Aldeman
W. Allison
C. Hitchens
C. Powell
K. Parker
...

Although they have not explicitely done so, I would also add:

D. Brooks
G. Will
C. Krauthammer
P. Noonan

Finally, a large number of papers that have *never* endorsed a Democrat are endorsing Obama this year and they all cite Palin's lack of qualifications.

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Thatcher:

Some fun reading:

GOP Rep.: ‘Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God’
http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1008/GOP_Rep_Liberals_Hate_Real_Americans_That_Work_And_Achieve_And_Believe_In_God.html?showall

Wisconsin GOP Official Denounces McCain Robocalls, Endorses Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/21/wisconsin-gop-official-de_n_136573.html

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Nowukkers:

Batony:
Thanks. You're right about Cochran - but it doesn't change the thrust of my argument. Obama's grandma is not running for POTUS - McCain is - and his age problems (forgetfulness, irascibility, health in general) are as valid a criterion as his claims of maturity and experience. You cannot simply scream "agism", when you seek to benefit from age as an issue too.

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Batony:

@Pion:

So what is that 5 votes? Do you think the conservatives who Palin inspires cares what the media elite thinks?

Let me ask everyone on here a question:

Name one individual or one newspaper who endorsement of a candidate would somehow influence your vote. Personally, I cannot think of one man or woman or a newspaper or news organization that could influence my vote. And since I have moved to DC and seen up close how full of sh_t the politicians on both sides and the media are...it's gotten even worse.

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pion:

@Batony: you're changing the subject---I never commented on the value of endorsements (no proven impact), I was responding to your charge that Liberals 'attack' Palin.

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Batony,
Who would make me change my vote? Probably no one. EXCEPT I am glad I'm not supporting McCain after that insane Wynn plopped down so much cash for him. However, Powell's endorsement seems to have resonated with the members of Nellis AFB as KVBC showed in there story yesterday reporting form there.

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boolean_radley:

@ alankeyes

You remind me of "chef" from the old FC boards.

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BOOMFAIL:

@Thatcher

Thanks for the WI link! You know that if republicans see this and are disgusted, imagine how this is starting to affect the Independents!

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boomdoom:

Watch McShame love for PA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLVSURlFoQs

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