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FL: Obama 49, McCain 44 (Suffolk-10/23-26)

Topics: PHome

Suffolk University
10/23-26/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida
Obama 49, McCain 44

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

:-) :-) :-)

____________________

Trosen:

We are working.. we will work down here until the last minute to get every vote possible for Barack. We are dead serious about turning FL blue.. and if it doesn't, it's not for lack of trying.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

You go guy!! But shouldn't the map turn FL light blue now? This is a couple of polls with Obama up 5 or so points.

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faithhopelove:

"ACTUAL VOTER" NUMBERS IN SUSA/SUFFOLK/RASMUSSEN POLLS

VA
SUSA
O: 67%
M: 30%

NM
SUSA
O: 60%
M: 37%

IA
SUSA
O: 65%
M: 31%

IN
SUSA
O: 50%
M: 46%

OH
SUSA
O: 57%
M: 39%

NC
SUSA
O: 59%
M: 36%
From the narrative of today's Rasmussen poll of NC: "Obama leads among North Carolina voters who have already cast their ballots, while McCain leads among those who have not."

GA
SUSA
O: 52%
M: 46%

FL
SUSA
O: 45%
M: 53%
Suffolk
O: 60%
M: 40%
See:
http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/MI101890/

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Steve_OH:

New Hampshire just went dark blue. That's now 272 EVs counting only dark blue states.

Poor boom. Poor, poor boom.

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Dewey1858:

"Steve_OH:
New Hampshire just went dark blue. That's now 272 EVs counting only dark blue states."

But just you wait! That doesn't take into account McCain's secret plan to launch a late, Monday-night bid to steal California, after launching a cunning feint toward PA.


____________________

laguna_b:

" after launching a cunning feint toward PA."

You mean Palin.....or did I misinterpret?

____________________

Cane Cattivo:

@faithhopelove:
""ACTUAL VOTER" NUMBERS IN SUSA/SUFFOLK/RASMUSSEN POLLS"

Sorry I'm being lazy, faith, but do you have the DATES of these polls and the PERCENTAGE of people who voted?

Thanks!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Here's something new that may change the texture of the race in Georgia.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/27/thousands-of-flagged-voters-can-vote-court-rules/

55,000 voters in Georgia flagged by the Republicans have been told that they can vote on November 4th by a panel of judges.

What do you think that these voters are not going to vote Republican...even if they had been going to do that before?

Boy the Republicans are STUPID!

____________________

laguna_b:

I thought you might be dyslexic...

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Gee, if NH can be turned dark blue, why can't FL be turned light blue?

____________________

metsmets:

HELL FREEZES OVER!
NASCAR'S JUNIOR JOHNSON ENDORSES OBAMA!

It doesn't get better than this..

____________________

laguna_b:

Who is Junior Johnson? Guess ya have to be into NASCAR...hope he is a biggie

____________________

masselo:

who the hell is NASCAR'S JUNIOR JOHNSON?

____________________

bjbrains:

Yep. Mcduck surge all right.
In all seriousness, this just proves that a purely negative campaign doesn't work.

____________________

BrookLynda:

NH turns dark blue based on, I guess, UNH poll which has O plus 16. Puts strong Obama over 270.

Can this poll be trusted?

____________________

mj1:

I think Debbie Wasserman-Shultz ih a hottie. I'd vote for Obama just becasue of her if I lived in FL

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Guys, there are only 16 red states left on the pollster map! 16 reds and 2 pinks.
This thing is over! NC and GA early voting has over 1/3 votes in already, and based on that alone GA went yellow on the map. Who would have THUNK Georgia?!

Our election night party is going to be devoid of all suspense - by the time East Coast closes, McCain will have racked up what? SC and WV, if he is lucky. And that is IT.

MSNBC hinted (Chris Matthews) indicated today that they might post election results from the East Coast before CA even closes. What would that mean to McCain? 2 states out of the ENTIRE right coast. A demoralizing blowout.

I would LOVE to discuss opposing views.

____________________

mj1:

I think Debbie Wasserman-Shultz is a hottie. I'd vote for Obama just because of her if I lived in FL

____________________

NoMcSame:

In 2004 Democrats had a 300,000 voter registration edge in Florida yet Bush won by 380,000 votes because the Democrats didn't turn out. I know Democrats have 700,000 voter registration edge this year so all Obama has to is turn almost every Democrat out in Florida that he can muster. Will he be able to do this? If so he could even lose the Florida Independent vote to McCain and still win Florida! What about his ground game is better at micro-targeting than Kerry's?
One last question: WHY THE HELL WAS TURNOUT FOR THE SAME DAY REGISTER/VOTE WEEK IN OHIO SO SMALL?? AND WHY ARE SO FEW PEOPLE TURNING OUT IN OHIO COMPARED TO FLA, NM, CO, etc?

____________________

boomshack:

!!!!BREAKING NEWS!!!

Watch Sarah Palin PARDON Cat Stevens!
(you heard it here first)

____________________

NoMcSame:

In 2004 Democrats had a 300,000 voter registration edge in Florida yet Bush won by 380,000 votes because the Democrats didn't turn out. I know Democrats have 700,000 voter registration edge this year so all Obama has to is turn almost every Democrat out in Florida that he can muster. Will he be able to do this? If so he could even lose the Florida Independent vote to McCain and still win Florida! What about his ground game is better at micro-targeting than Kerry's?
One last question: WHY THE HELL WAS TURNOUT FOR THE SAME DAY REGISTER/VOTE WEEK IN OHIO SO SMALL?? AND WHY ARE SO FEW PEOPLE TURNING OUT IN OHIO COMPARED TO FLA, NM, CO, etc?

____________________

oicu:

@boomshack:

she can't. It's a federal crime, that she has no jurisdiction over. Bush could, but won't, at least before the election.

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

Whats a junior johnson?

____________________

douglasfactors:

Whats a junior johnson?

Ask boomshak.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshack:
!!!!BREAKING NEWS!!!

Watch Sarah Palin PARDON Cat Stevens!
(you heard it here first)"

Really? Where did you hear this? The last I heard is that Cat Stevens is a muslim who pals around with terrorists and doesn't see things the way that you or I see them.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Here's the latest on Michelle Bachmann's efforts at re-election (she's my pet peeve)

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/edcut/376773/bachmann_s_blues?rel=hpbox

____________________

NoMcSame:

n 2004 Democrats had a 300,000 voter registration edge in Florida yet Bush won by 380,000 votes because the Democrats didn't turn out. I know Democrats have 700,000 voter registration edge this year so all Obama has to is turn almost every Democrat out in Florida that he can muster. Will he be able to do this? If so he could even lose the Florida Independent vote to McCain and still win Florida! What about his ground game is better at micro-targeting than Kerry's?
One last question: WHY THE HELL WAS TURNOUT FOR THE SAME DAY REGISTER/VOTE WEEK IN OHIO SO SMALL?? AND WHY ARE SO FEW PEOPLE TURNING OUT IN OHIO COMPARED TO FLA, NM, CO, etc?

____________________

boomshack:

douglasfactors:

Whats a junior johnson?
"Ask boomshak."

Obviously, a very tiny johnson.

____________________

bmrKY:

"douglasfactors:
Whats a junior johnson?

Ask boomshak."

Okay, I'll have to admit, I laughed my ass off at that one.

____________________

laguna_b:

"What would that mean to McCain? 2 states out of the ENTIRE right coast. A demoralizing blowout."

I owuld love to see Republican supression in california...it would kill Prop 8 for sure. Maybe even get us Az.

____________________

NoMcSame:

In 2004 Democrats had a 300,000 voter registration edge in Florida yet Bush won by 380,000 votes because the Democrats didn't turn out. I know Democrats have 700,000 voter registration edge this year so all Obama has to is turn almost every Democrat out in Florida that he can muster. Will he be able to do this? If so he could even lose the Florida Independent vote to McCain and still win Florida! What about his ground game is better at micro-targeting than Kerry's?
One last question: WHY THE HELL WAS TURNOUT FOR THE SAME DAY REGISTER/VOTE WEEK IN OHIO SO SMALL?? AND WHY ARE SO FEW PEOPLE TURNING OUT IN OHIO COMPARED TO FLA, NM, CO, etc?

____________________

1magine:

boom - A sense of humor - From the outside nothing but net!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

you know, it IS meant to be a parody of boomshak.

____________________

zotz:

What a boring day! Just more of McSame. It is fun listening to the Reps attacking each other. I listened to the 2001 Obama interview. It's nothing. Boom called it a "socialist manifesto" or some such nonsense. Moosehocky! (my new expletive for the Reps) Obama eas just saying that it was a "tragedy" for the civil rights movement to focus on the courts when they should have been focusing on community organizing and legislation. Wealth redistribution can be in interpreted as lots of things as George Will explains very clearly.
Rush & Co. are trying to create a socialist boogyman to scare all the redneck kiddies into the voting booth. It will have the same effect as all the other attack ads, NOTHING!

____________________

carl29:

Democrats in the state of FL are very energized. Early voting in my state has being through the roof :-)

Here in Miami-Dade County in South Florida, today was the best day of early voting so far.

Monday 10/20...12,024
Tuesday 10/21...13,364
Wednesday 10/22...16,900
Thursday 10/23...17,897
Friday 10/24...21,006
Saturday 10/25...14,556
Sunday 10/26...16,687
Monday 10/27...24,683

So far 137,117 people have voted early in Miami Dade Co. There are also 97,594 returned absentee ballots. Absentee ballots + early voting = 234,711 people have cast their ballots in Miami Dade Co until today., 30.1% of the people who voted in total in 2004. Early voting ends on Nov. 2nd.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Oh man Drudge shows McCain gaining another point in the Zogby poll.

Is anyone here surprised by this?

Unfortunately for Drudge, this means McCain is still losing.

____________________

asquared:

Is this Datamar Florida poll the same as the Suffolk on? similiar results:

http://www.datamar.net/pdf/flpg102708.pdf

____________________

Pat:

I tried to make calls for GOTV today for the Obama camp. The phone banking software gave me several options to call swing States. What surprised me was that Virginia and Missouri were not on the list. Anyone know why? Could it be that they are confident about these two states or that they have enough volunteers in both places????

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I have been thinking that if the States are supposedly lagging behind the national numbers like some say. Wouldn't that make it even more important for McCain to do really well immediately now?

____________________

Basil:

MN

As an Oregonian I think I speak for lots of left-coasters who think it's not right to start analyzing national elections before the polls close out here. True, we do have vote-by-mail, but the deadline is Nov. 4 to turn in ballots by hand.

To make matters worse, I also think the polls should stay open until midnight everywhere (if they don't do vote-by-mail), and that Nov. 4 should be a holiday.

AND I can't stand exit polls at all. Until all the votes are in, I don't think it's anybody's business. Just more games...

So I guess I'm implying that Nov. 4 should be voting day and Nov. 5 should be the day the results are made public. Maybe instead of the 4th, election day could be the first Saturday in November, so we could celebrate or mourn on Sunday.

Of course, the news networks would never stand for any of this stuff, and they run the show, so to speak. I love info, but I absolutely hate TV election coverage. The BS to fact ratio is astronomical.

Vote-by-mail is great! If everybody did it you could close the polls at 6:00 (assuming the Nov. 4 holiday), wait until 9:00 on the east coast, and then let 'er rip.

TMI?

____________________

davidsfr:

Datamar Survey is different, it was just released.

____________________

laguna_b:


Datamar: Obama Leads By Five in Florida
A new Datamar survey in Florida shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 44%.


Another confirming poll.....nice....

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asquared:

davidsfr:

Thanks, I guess that means score another O+5 for Florida

____________________

Pat:

I tried to make calls for GOTV today for the Obama camp. The phone banking software gave me several options to call swing states. What surprised me was that Virginia and Missouri were not on the list. Anyone know why? Could it be that they are confident about these two states or that they have enough volunteers in both places????

____________________

laguna_b:

Sarah will go back to Alaska, and maybe when hunting wolves from a plane, the plane will be forced down and she will be eaten by wolves....great headline I think! Wolves take revenge!

____________________

AJ:

@ Pat
I beleive that there is no early voting in Virginia and Missouri, so no need fot GOTV calls today.

____________________

Pat:

@AJ:

Thanks.

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syrac818:

Trosen -


Just wanted to say thank you so much for your hardwork. I'm out here in CA, too sick to drive to Nevada, and feel pretty bad about it. Listening to you really makes me feel better.

Keep it up!!!

____________________

syrac818:

AJ & Pat,

I could have this wrong, but my sister lives in VA and told me a number of people are voting early (just talked to her today). Maybe she was wrong?

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

As much as I want to believe it, I just don't see Obama winning OH or FL.

There will be surprises on election night for sure. As long as those surprises don't include VA, CO or NM going red then I can care less about FL and OH.

But it sure would be nice to win them both!

____________________

syrac818:
____________________

UpstateProgressive:

Ode to Obama

272 are solid blue
They're electoral votes for Obama
34 more are light blue too
Those electoral votes for Obama

90 yellow tossups are shining through
Will these all vote for Obama?
With leaners its trending toward 362
Electoral votes for Obama

Smart money says when the voting is through
We'll be electing Obama
A president who will be brilliant and new
--Transformational dude named Obama

____________________

faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
(updated)


4 Days Ago:

Obama ~ IN
Joe Biden ~ NC

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ PA


3 Days Ago:

Obama ~ HI
Joe Biden ~ WV, VA
Michelle Obama ~ OH
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ PA, CO
Bill Clinton ~ KY

McCain ~ CO
Palin ~ PA, MO


2 Days Ago:

Obama ~ NV, NM
Joe Biden ~ VA
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ TX, NM, UT

McCain ~ NM
Palin ~ IA, IN


Yesterday:

Obama ~ CO

McCain ~ IA, OH
Palin ~ FL, NC


Today:

Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV

McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA


Tomorrow:

Obama ~ PA, VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH

McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA


Wednesday:

Obama ~ NC, FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NC
Bill Clinton ~ PA, FL

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ OH, IN


Thursday:

Obama ~ FL, MO
Joe Biden ~ MO
Bill Clinton ~ FL, WV, MN

McCain ~ PA
Palin ~ PA, MO


Friday:

McCain ~ OH


Saturday:

Palin ~ NC


Sunday:

Bill Clinton ~ NH


Speculation on locations of Obama's final weekend (Friday-Monday) rallies:

Philadelphia
Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Charleston
Miami
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Arlington
Charlotte
East Chicago/Gary
Bloomington
Indianapolis
Des Moines
Omaha
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Madison
Las Vegas
Phoenix/Tempe
Tucson

____________________

Pat:

AJ and syrac818:

I think there is early voting in VA. According to earlier post by faithhopelove:

"ACTUAL VOTER" NUMBERS IN SUSA/SUFFOLK/RASMUSSEN POLLS

VA
SUSA
O: 67%
M: 30%

So this means that they are either very confident or have many volunteers in VA. That would be good news.

____________________

Trosen:

syrac818.. my mom is in Cali and she's making calls to Nevada and New Mexico. There's always something you can do.

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Basil:

laguna_b

I'd like to see Sarah go through something like what Homer Simpson did in Alaska in the Simpson's movie, i.e. Native American psychedelic initiation ritual. Then she could BE the wolf and know what it's like to be murdered by alienated anglo a-holes (sorry)..

It could happen in the context of some Inuit fact-finding trip. Actually, it would be an Inuit fact-finding trip (though maybe the Simpsons were scrambling their Native Americans a little).

____________________

faithhopelove:

SWING STATE NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS


CO
O: 13
M: 4

FL
O: 13
M: 4

GA
O: 3
M: 0

IN
O: 4
M: 0

IA:
O: 5
M: 3

ME:
O: 3
M: 0

MN
O: 2
M: 2

MO
O: 3
M: 0

MT
O: 1
M: 0

NV
O: 2
M: 2

NH
O: 6
M: 3

NM
O: 3
M: 1

NC
O: 8
M: 0

ND
O: 0
M: 1

OH
O: 11
M: 3

PA
O: 13
M: 3

VA
O: 3
M: 8

WV
O: 2
M: 1

WI
O: 6
M: 3

See:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230
&
http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/09/presidential-newspaper-endorsement-list.html

____________________

Dana Adini:

if you take the RCP averages, aggregate and weight them properly.....you get

O 50.6
M 42.6

National polls are very tricky and hard to weight properly. A republican in North Carolina and one in NY don't think alike yet they are givien the same weight in a national poll.

In state polls u have more homogenious sample and are more accurate.

If the state polls are correct. Obama is cruising

____________________

Dana Adini:

if you take the RCP averages, aggregate and weight them properly.....you get

O 50.6
M 42.6

National polls are very tricky and hard to weight properly. A republican in North Carolina and one in NY don't think alike yet they are givien the same weight in a national poll.

In state polls u have more homogenious sample and are more accurate.

If the state polls are correct. Obama is cruising

____________________

brambster:

@Pat

I don't believe there is early voting in either Virginia and Missouri, and that's probably why they aren't in your list (I know Virginia doesn't).

I'm quite sure that the Obama campaign knows what they are doing since they got this far :)

____________________

Dana Adini:

fairfax county has early voting missouri doesn't

____________________

Basil:

faith

Thanks.

VA is the odd one, but judging from the posts here, McCainiacs are too jumpy to read much past talking points.

____________________

faithhopelove:

EARLY VOTING NUMBERS


Colorado
Dem 38.6%
Rep 37.9%
No/Oth 23.5%

Florida
Dem 44.7%
Rep 40.0%
No/Oth 15.2%

Georgia
White 61.0%
Black 35.1%
Other/Unk 2.6%
Men 41.2%
Women 55.9%
Unk 1.6%

Iowa
Dem 49.4%
Rep 28.3%
No/Oth 22.3%

Louisiana
Dem 57.9%
Rep 29.4%
No/Oth 12.7%
White 62.9%
Black 34.3%
Other 2.8%
Men 44.0%
Women 55.9%

Maine
Dem 44.9%
Rep 28.7%
No/Oth 26.4%

Nevada
Clark Cnty
Dem 55.2%
Rep 28.5%
No/Oth 16.3%
Washoe Cnty
Dem 51.5%
Rep 32.7%
No/Oth 15.9%

New Mexico
Bernalillo Cnty
Dem 55.4%
Rep 32.2%
No/Oth 12.4%

North Carolina
Dem 55.1% 48.6%
Rep 27.7% 37.4%
None 17.2% 14.1%
18-29 11.9%
30-44 19.9%
45-64 41.8%
65+ 26.3%
White 67.7%
Black 28.3%
Other 4.0%
Men 43.0% 42.9%
Women 56.2% 56.6%
Unk 0.3% 0.4%

See:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

____________________

straight talk:

BILL CLINTON WILL BE IN PA TOMORROW AND OBAMA WILL CAMPAIGN IN VA ACCORDING TO THE O TEAM! ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A TREMENDOUS VICTORY. IF THE O TEAM CARRIES VA THAT WON'T BE A SHOCKER, BUT IF HE CARRIES GEORGIA! WELL REPUBLICANS BETTER GET READY FOR A LONG NIGHT. AND WHY IS McCAIN GETTING THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THAT HE CAN COME BACK? OBAMA IS SO WELL POSITIONED RIGHT NOW THAT HE COULD LOSE PENNSYLVANIA, OHIO, FLORIDA, AND STILL WIN THE ELECTION! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

zotz:

Hey did you guys see Bill Burton socking it to whatserface on FUX NEWS? She really got mad. That was supposed to be a FOX slap down but it backfired. I loved it when he said, "I know you don't like to be interrupted but go ahead and and interrupt me". And he was calm throughout while she was practically yelling at him.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-orton/obama-continues-fox-news_b_138328.html

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faithhopelove:

CURRENT AD SPENDING IN SWING STATES


CO: Obama 3 to 1
FL: Obama 3 to 1
MO: Obama 2 to 1
OH: Obama 3 to 1
PA: Obama 2 to 1
VA: Obama 3 to 1

See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/27/obama_continues_advertising_dominance.html

____________________

faithhopelove:

THE GROUND GAME IN SWING STATES


AZ:
3 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

CO:
50 Obama field offices
12 McCain field offices

FL:
58 Obama field offices
75 McCain field offices

GA:
7 Obama field offices
0 McCain field offices

IN:
42 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

IA:
49 Obama field offices
16 McCain field offices

MO:
42 Obama field offices
16 field offices

NV:
15 Obama field offices
12 McCain field offices

NH:
19 Obama field offices
13 McCain field offices

NM:
38 Obama field offices
15 McCain field offices

NC:
50 Obama field offices
35 McCain field offices

OH:
81 Obama field offices
62 McCain field offices

PA:
78 Obama field offices
37 McCain field offices

VA:
72 Obama field offices
22 McCain field offices

WV:
21 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

____________________

Basil:

faith

I love it when R's complain about how much Obama is spending. If regular people weren't contributing to Obama in huge numbers, it wouldn't be the way it is.

After decades of R's shoving corporate cash into the system and outspending D's, it's refreshing to see the Obama avalanche burying McCain and his goons.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Mehgan Kelly got upset. She kept repeating fox talking points....they get pissed off when they are labled as a GOP station

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Take if from a Hoosier, faithhopelove, all those Indiana ground offices are a waste of money for your Overlord. McCain has got Indiana sewn up.

____________________

political_junki:

Sarah Palin's War on Science
The GOP ticket's appalling contempt for knowledge and learning.
By Christopher Hitchens
Posted Monday, Oct. 27, 2008, at 11:43 AM ET

In an election that has been fought on an astoundingly low cultural and intellectual level, with both candidates pretending that tax cuts can go like peaches and cream with the staggering new levels of federal deficit, and paltry charges being traded in petty ways, and with Joe the Plumber becoming the emblematic stupidity of the campaign, it didn't seem possible that things could go any lower or get any dumber. But they did last Friday, when, at a speech in Pittsburgh, Gov. Sarah Palin denounced wasteful expenditure on fruit-fly research, adding for good xenophobic and anti-elitist measure that some of this research took place "in Paris, France" and winding up with a folksy "I kid you not."

It was in 1933 that Thomas Hunt Morgan won a Nobel Prize for showing that genes are passed on by way of chromosomes. The experimental creature that he employed in the making of this great discovery was the Drosophila melanogaster, or fruit fly. Scientists of various sorts continue to find it a very useful resource, since it can be easily and plentifully "cultured" in a laboratory, has a very short generation time, and displays a great variety of mutation. This makes it useful in studying disease, and since Gov. Palin was in Pittsburgh to talk about her signature "issue" of disability and special needs, she might even have had some researcher tell her that there is a Drosophila-based center for research into autism at the University of North Carolina. The fruit fly can also be a menace to American agriculture, so any financing of research into its habits and mutations is money well-spent. It's especially ridiculous and unfortunate that the governor chose to make such a fool of herself in Pittsburgh, a great city that remade itself after the decline of coal and steel into a center of high-tech medical research.

In this case, it could be argued, Palin was not just being a fool in her own right but was following a demagogic lead set by the man who appointed her as his running mate. Sen. John McCain has made repeated use of an anti-waste and anti-pork ad (several times repeated and elaborated in his increasingly witless speeches) in which the expenditure of $3 million to study the DNA of grizzly bears in Montana was derided as "unbelievable." As an excellent article in the Feb. 8, 2008, Scientific American pointed out, there is no way to enforce the Endangered Species Act without getting some sort of estimate of numbers, and the best way of tracking and tracing the elusive grizzly is by setting up barbed-wire hair-snagging stations that painlessly take samples from the bears as they lumber by and then running the DNA samples through a laboratory. The cost is almost trivial compared with the importance of understanding this species, and I dare say the project will yield results in the measurement of other animal populations as well, but all McCain could do was be flippant and say that he wondered whether it was a "paternity" or "criminal" issue that the Fish and Wildlife Service was investigating. (Perhaps those really are the only things that he associates in his mind with DNA.)

With Palin, however, the contempt for science may be something a little more sinister than the bluff, empty-headed plain-man's philistinism of McCain. We never get a chance to ask her in detail about these things, but she is known to favor the teaching of creationism in schools (smuggling this crazy idea through customs in the innocent disguise of "teaching the argument," as if there was an argument), and so it is at least probable that she believes all creatures from humans to fruit flies were created just as they are now. This would make DNA or any other kind of research pointless, whether conducted in Paris or not. Projects such as sequencing the DNA of the flu virus, the better to inoculate against it, would not need to be funded. We could all expire happily in the name of God. Gov. Palin also says that she doesn't think humans are responsible for global warming; again, one would like to ask her whether, like some of her co-religionists, she is a "premillenial dispensationalist"—in other words, someone who believes that there is no point in protecting and preserving the natural world, since the end of days will soon be upon us.

Videos taken in the Assembly of God church in Wasilla, Alaska, which she used to attend, show her nodding as a preacher says that Alaska will be "one of the refuge states in the Last Days." For the uninitiated, this is a reference to a crackpot belief, widely held among those who brood on the "End Times," that some parts of the world will end at different times from others, and Alaska will be a big draw as the heavens darken on account of its wide open spaces. An article by Laurie Goodstein in the New York Times gives further gruesome details of the extreme Pentecostalism with which Palin has been associated in the past (perhaps moderating herself, at least in public, as a political career became more attractive). High points, also available on YouTube, show her being "anointed" by an African bishop who claims to cast out witches. The term used in the trade for this hysterical superstitious nonsense is "spiritual warfare," in which true Christian soldiers are trained to fight demons. Palin has spoken at "spiritual warfare" events as recently as June. And only last week the chiller from Wasilla spoke of "prayer warriors" in a radio interview with James Dobson of Focus on the Family, who said that he and his lovely wife, Shirley, had convened a prayer meeting to beseech that "God's perfect will be done on Nov. 4."

This is what the Republican Party has done to us this year: It has placed within reach of the Oval Office a woman who is a religious fanatic and a proud, boastful ignoramus. Those who despise science and learning are not anti-elitist. They are morally and intellectually slothful people who are secretly envious of the educated and the cultured. And those who prate of spiritual warfare and demons are not just "people of faith" but theocratic bullies. On Nov. 4, anyone who cares for the Constitution has a clear duty to repudiate this wickedness and stupidity.

____________________

laguna_b:

@MaxMBJ

Max, you cautioned us to be vigilant even as the polls were clearly showing a landslide and I agreed with your advice. Considering that most polls have McCain BEHIND in Indiana, I think caution would be an understatement for you to be....you are in fact BEHIND. The probability isn't 75% that you will WIN, but the opposite...yet you come off cocksure and sounding arrogant and stupid.....so your credibility is zero.

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NW Patrick:

God I love it when the Thugs eat their own. It's delighful!

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=6124663&page=1

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political_junki:

I know it is long, but take 5 mins to read the article that I copy pasted guys :-)

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burrito:

I think that is time for another Alaska poll, since Stevens got convicted ... what is the political climate there?

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NW Patrick:

Max you must be voting Republican again because of the AMAZING economy you have their in Indiana?

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Basil:

@Max

Like Dubya had Ohio sewn up in '04?

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kc_in_MN:

@political junki,

Yes, she is frightening. At a time when research (medical and basic science) funding is steadily going down, when we are not producing enough engineers and scientists and having to import them from abroad through the H-1b visitor program, we cannot afford this anti-science backwards thinking in the White House. I can't even comment on the religious fanaticism.

Drosophila are great genetic models. I remember working on those in my pre-med days.

I didn't mind the prospect of John McCain in the White House that much until he picked Palin. The Palin pick drove me to max out contributions to the Obama campaign and to actually get off my butt and volunteer.

____________________

bill kapra:

zogby 49 - 44.7 O net -0.5

Looks like the big night was three nights ago. Tomorrow's numbers will bounce back when it falls off (unless there's another big M night tomorrow)

____________________

maddiekat:

The media and many of you are going to be shocked when Obama wins MO, NM, NV, CO, FL, OH, VA, an NC on Nov 4th. This election is basically reality TV and Obama is now simply looking at how to run it up. If you do not believe me Obama is running more ads in Georgia right now then he is Ohio. If you need more proof of where Obama stands look at the pathetic nature of Drudges website. Even for a coward as small as Drudge it is pathetic. Johny I know you love to worry but I am telling you Obama is going to win this election 54- 43-3!! This is not a normal year and it is not a normal election and the media and the pollsters have missed it!

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

If both their numbers are dropping then it looks like the 49-46 day was not upheld and both could be polling lower now.

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Basil:

Hitchens writes beautifully, and on the Palin point he's 100% correct. (IMHO, of course)

On some other scores (e.g. Iraq) he reminds me of Bill Buckley--logical, stylish, snarky, obnoxiously upper-crusty.

Still, great article. Thanks, p_j.

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adocarbog:

Zogby's overall 49-45 number is bad, I have to say but their internal numbers are OK.
Today the told us Obama is up 51-35 with independents. McCain is up 87-11 with Rep and Obama is up 84-11 with Dems. I can believe that.
If you apply Rassmussen Party ID numbers to that 40-32.8-27.2 ratio you get
Obama 51.1%
McCain 44.4%
and that sound about right. Zogby weighs Dems and Reps even per 2004 exit polls and that is a big problem in his polling.

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McShame:

@ adocarbog:

Good point but small correction - if you apply those weightings, Obama actually leads 51.1% to 42.5%.

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cinnamonape:

Here's a site that regularly updates early and absentee voting demographics. For those that can read tea leaves (or animal entrails) the inferences might be interesting.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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political_junki:

adocarbog:
Very nicely done. That is what I always do, plug Zogby's numbers in Rass's weighting :-)

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McShame:

Applying Rasmussen Party ID numbers (40-32.8-27.2):

1. Zogby: Obama 51.1%, McCain 42.5%
2. IBD/Tipp: Obama 48.7%, McCain 43.1%

____________________

political_junki:

McShame:
This race has been locked on O+(5 to 7) points for 2,3 weeks now. All these fluctuations are effect of polling method not real change in dynamics of the race. Rassmussen has been remarkably stable, I think they have been the best this election cycle...

____________________

faithhopelove:

(SWING) STATE OF THE RACE
October 27


CO:
Obama has led in 14 consecutive CO polls;
Obama has hit 50% in 11 of these polls;
Obama held his convention in Denver;
Obama has recently (yesterday) attracted 150,000 people to rallies in CO;
Obama is outspending McCain by 3 to 1 there;
Obama has his wife visiting the state tomorrow;
Obama has received 13 CO newspaper endorsements to McCain's 4;
Obama has the edge in early CO voting, with more Democrats having voted than Republicans;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 50 field offices to McCain's 12.

FL:
Obama has led in 6 consecutive FL polls, and 25 of the last 30 FL polls;
Obama is at 51% in the most recent FL poll;
Obama's running mate is visiting the state through Wednesday, and Obama himself is visiting the state Wednesday and Thursday--with Bill Clinton;
Obama is outspending McCain there by 3 to 1;
Obama has received 13 FL newspaper endorsements to McCain's 4;
Obama has the edge in early FL voting, with more Democrats having voted than Republicans.

IN:
Obama has led in 3 of the last 4 non-internet polls of IN;
Obama visited the state last Thursday;
Obama has received 4 IN newspaper endorsements to McCain's 0;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 42 field offices to McCain's 1.

IA:
Obama has led in 12 consecutive polls of IA, breaking 50% in all of them;
Obama has not trailed in a poll of IA since January of 2007;
Obama has received 5 IA newspaper endorsements to McCain's 3;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 49 field offices to McCain's 16.

MO:
Obama has led or been tied in 13 of the last 17 MO polls;
Obama recently attracted 175,000 people to rallies in MO;
Obama and his running mate visit the state again on Thursday;
Obama is outspending McCain in MO by 2 to 1;
Obama has received 3 MO newspaper endorsements to McCain's 0;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 42 field offices to McCain's 16.

NV:
Obama has led in 12 of the last 14 NV polls, with 1 tie and 1 McCain lead--in a Zogby internet poll;
Obama visited the state Saturday, and his wife visits the state today;
Obama has the edge in early voting, with more Democrats having voted than Republicans;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 15 field offices to McCain's 12.

NH:
Obama has led in 15 consecutive polls of NH;
Obama has been at 50% or greater in 4 consecutive and 9 of 11 NH polls;
Obama has Hillary visiting the state tomorrow, and Bill Clinton visiting the state Sunday;
Obama has been endorsed by 6 NH newspapers to McCain's 3;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 19 field offices to McCain's 13.

NM:
Obama has led in 12 consecutive and 15 of 16 NM polls;
Obama has been above 50% in 3 of the last 4 NM polls;
Obama attracted a crowd of 45,000 in NM Saturday (McCain attracted about 1,000 people the same day in NM);
Obama has the edge in early NM voting, with more Democrats having voted than Republicans;
Obama has been endorsed by 3 NM newspapers to McCain's 1;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 38 field offices to McCain's 15.

NC:
Obama has led in 16 of the last 20 polls of NC;
Obama visits the state Wednesday;
Obama has the edge in early voting, with more Democrats having voted than Republicans, and with African-Americans voting at a high rate;
Obama has received 8 NC newspaper endorsements to McCain's 0;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 50 field offices to McCain's 35.

OH:
Obama has led in 21 of the last 29 OH polls, 8 of the last 10 OH polls, and 4 consecutive OH polls;
Obama has hit 50% in 3 of the last 4 OH polls;
Obama visited the state today;
Obama is outspending McCain in OH by 3 to 1;
Obama has received 11 OH newspaper endorsements to McCain's 3;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 81 field offices to McCain's 62.

PA:
Obama has led in 32 consecutive PA polls;
Obama has been at 50% or greater in 8 consecutive PA polls;
Obama visits PA today and tomorrow, and Bill Clinton visits there Wednesday;
Obama is outspending McCain in PA by 2 to 1;
Obama has received 13 PA newspaper endorsements to McCain's 3;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 78 field offices to McCain's 37.

VA:
Obama has led in 19 consecutive polls of VA;
Obama has been above 50% in 6 consecutive VA polls;
Obama visits VA tomorrow;
Obama is outspending McCain in VA by 3 to 1;
Obama has the advantage in GOTV efforts, with 72 field offices to McCain's 22.

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McShame:

@ political_junki:

You're right - it has been a remarkably stable race for the last few weeks. I could still see Rasmussen go down to O+3 or O+4 today (after the big drop today) which means another day of Boom's retarded antics. Brace yourself.

____________________

McShame:

@ political_junki:

You're right - it has been a remarkably stable race for the last few weeks. I could still see Rasmussen go down to O+3 or O+4 today (after the big drop yesterday) which means another day of Boom's retarded antics. Brace yourself.

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political_junki:

From 538:

There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

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FromSarkoToObama:

I wonder why Obama abanded his speach about transparency in government, how he propose everybody to examine where tax money will go. Get
input from citizens before he signs bills.
I found that powerful.
What do you think about this subject?

____________________

political_junki:

FromSarkoToObama:
Where was he supposed to give that speech? I dont know any thing about it?

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

political_junki

The Change We Need in Washington
Monday, September 22nd, 2008
Green Bay, Wisconsin

"I’ll make it absolutely clear that working in an Obama Administration is not about serving your former employer, your future employer, or your bank account – it’s about serving your country. When you walk into my administration, you will not be able to work on regulations or contracts directly related to your former employer for two years. And when you leave, you will not be able to lobby my Administration – ever. I will also institute an absolute gift ban so that no registered lobbyist can curry favor with members of my administration based on how much they can spend on a fancy dinner.

I’ll make our government open and transparent so that anyone can ensure that our business is the people’s business. As Justice Louis Brandeis once said, sunlight is the greatest disinfectant. As President, I will make it impossible for Congressmen or lobbyists to slip pork-barrel projects or corporate welfare into laws when no one is looking because when I am president, meetings where laws are written will be more open to the public. No more secrecy.

When there is a bill that ends up on my desk as President, you will have five days to look online and find out what’s in it before I sign it. When there are meetings between lobbyists and a government agency, we will put as many as possible online for every American to watch. When there is a tax bill being debated in Congress, you will know the names of the corporations that would benefit and how much money they would get. And we will put every corporate tax break and every pork-barrel project online for every American to see. You will know who asked for them and you can cast your vote accordingly."

http://speeches.demconwatchblog.com/2008/09/barack-obama-speech-from-green-bay-wi.html

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FromSarkoToObama:

Reuters / C-SPAN /Zogby
O:49
M:44.7

Good to keep obama supporters mobilized

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political_junki:

Thank you FromSarkoToObama, had never heard of it.

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boomshak:

GET READY FOR IT. PA IS DEFINITELY GOING FOR MCCAIN:

Union memners have been lying to pollsters for fear of losing their jobs. They have NO intention of voting for Obama...

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/breaking-heres-what-we-know-about-pennsylvania-right-now/

Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clinton’s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin — and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in Texas, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for Hillary and have spent many LONG hours with her in the trenches in all of those states. She’s smart, doesn’t BS, and never lies.

She says the same thing we do: John McCain will win Pennsylvania.

On November 4th, the news networks are going to be spinning and sputtering and playing catchup, but everything we see on the ground in PA is what we saw during the primaries: Obama has no shot of winning the Keystone State.

Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it. Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter, for the simple fact that these “Reagan Democrats” weren’t identified and labeled until AFTER the election.

No, Democrats for McCain are real, are voting for McCain right now, and are open and organized, as well as self-identifying. Lynn Rothschild might be our poster gal, as one of the most prominent of our ranks, but it’s telling that everyone from Team Hillary that we know now works for McCain. ALL OF US. Whether they are open about it, like we are, or are working quietly behind the scenes, we can’t think of a single person we worked with on a daily basis for Hillary who is now working on behalf of Obama.

We all truly believe that John McCain will work more closely with Hillary Clinton in the Senate and make it a priority to team up with her on legislation than Obama ever would. We also believe Obama winning this election means his supporters would actively seek to eliminate all Clinton loyalists from the Democratic Party, to consolidate his power base and purge anyone who is not 100% loyal to him. For obvious reasons, those of us loyal to the Clintons will not let that happen without a fight.

But, this is all talking about leadership, and those of us who have invested two years of our lives in all of this — and have, in all honesty, spent every cent we had on this campaign. What about the regular voters?

Union members repeatedly tell all of us that they are lying to pollsters because the unions have been polling these people — and the unions will threaten people’s jobs if they don’t tow the union line. So, the people lie when asked whom they are supporting. But, the unions can’t control who they vote for on Election Day. And that’s when things are going to get interesting.

We do not believe Obama will carry Pittsburgh or Harrisburg in PA. He’ll win Philly, but not by the large margin he needs to take the state. You’ve heard Governor Ed Rendell is “worried” about Obama’s chances in Pennsylvania. That is an understatement. Obama will lose a state that hasn’t gone red in generations.

What’s happening here that’s not being reported is that “Reagan Democrats” who vote Republican whenever they feel that Democrats are out of touch, socialist, or too liberal are voting for McCain…and these people are being joined by PUMAs, DeMcCrats for McCain, Hillocrats, whatever you want to call them, who don’t like or trust Obama and who believe McCain/Palin would address the wants and needs of centrist Democrats much better than Obama ever would.

We personally believe this here at HillBuzz. That’s why we are doing this. We do not believe Obama will put the best interests of Americans first — instead, Obama will do what is best for Obama, the way he has always done. We do not trust this man or his socialist Kool-Aid and want no part of him.

In Pennsylvania, we are not alone.

The same people who ran the board for us in the primary — who assured us daily that the polls the media was pushing were wrong in claiming Obama would beat Clinton in PA — tell us on a daily basis that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. There’s a damn good chance this won’t even be close, if what people are seeing on the ground right now holds, and is indicative of the whole state.

DEMOCRATS are staffing McCain offices across the state. DEMOCRATS are phone banking and canvassing for McCain. DEMOCRATS are raising large sums to fund this last week of campaigning.

DEMOCRATS.

This has NEVER happened before — and the media is ignoring it. The media consistently claims that Obama enjoys the support of 85% of Democrats, versus only 80% of Republicans who supposedly are supporting McCain. We call BS on all of this — we’d say 90% of Republicans are supporting McCain, and 65-70% of Democrats are actually supporting Obama. At least that’s the case in Pennsylvania, and in Ohio too. Our mission this next week is to reach out to every Democrat we can and let them know it’s okay to vote Republican this year — because the Republican is the better choice.

There are two things Hillary Clinton and John McCain have in common that we’re thinking about right now: (1) both love America more than anything and truly want what’s best for the country, and not themselves and (2) Clinton has a framed photo of McCain in her office, while McCain has a similar photo of Clinton in his.

Clinton and McCain are friends for a reason — and we know they will work well together these next four years. We’re going to face some tough challenges in McCain’s administration, and we sincerely do pledge to all Republicans reading this that the bipartisan spirit we’ve fostered during this campaign working together with Republicans to elect McCain will continue in these next 4 years, because America needs us working together.

We are all Americans right now — working together to stop a socialist from becoming president and taking all of us down a very dangerous path. Hillary’s Army is strong and mobilized, and is working its hard out for McCain/Palin. If you Republicans can match our enthusiasm and dedication, we will win this, and not just in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but all across the country.

We have the potential to make this a crippling loss not just for Obama, but for the far-left liberal wing of the Democratic party and the liberal elite media itself. We have the potential to wipe all of these kooks and loons off the political landscape with a loud, resounding loss for all of them on November 4th.

What we have learned about the state of Pennsylvania tells us our continued efforts are paying off — and that we just need to stay focused and keep working hard the next 7 days to win this for McCain/Palin and, in all honesty, win this for AMERICA too.

It’s an honor to be in this fight with all of you — if we work hard, we will indeed win.

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boomshak:

Obama is going to lose. The state polls are lagging the national trend (as they always do). We have eight days to go and Obama lost 2 points or more yesterday alone in a number of national polls.

Despite the MSM attempt to completely cover-up, spin and justofy Obama's 2001 Socialist Manifesto, the story is stuck.

Obama will spend the next week trying to explain to America that he is not a Marxist.

____________________

Kjartan:

Again boomshak: Your comments about communism are completely false. You do not know what you are talking about if you compare Obama with someone like Honecker or other leaders of socialistic systems. How old are you? Seems to me like you are a child who resisted to learn something in history. As a former citizen of the GDR I think you need some education about it. Maybe watch "The life of others" or something like that.

____________________

bmrKY:

Cross posted from the Ras/Fox thread, since this is where the "action" is at:

"MaxMBJ:
I hate to school you all again but all this talk of the state polls is so, so irrelevant. Why? Because state polls always shake down from national numbers. They just take a few days to show up that way."

And I hate to school you again, dumbass, but Obama is remaining steady in the trackers and the national polls. The only change has been McCains numbers increasing in several of the trackers; Obamas numbers are staying consistently at or above 50%. And national polls are NOT always an indicator of state polls. The neocon hero of the week, Zogby, has the national race about as close as any other tracker, yet his state polls from the same time period show Obama leading comfortably enough in enough swing states to win the election. Personally, I think all of Zogby's polls are crap (national and state; even though he is showing my guy ahead, I still think that he is a terrible pollster and I've said this for months), but he's apparently the new savior of the right wing neocons (along with Palin and Drudge) so if his polls show it, it must be true.

Again, Obama WILL NOT win all of the current red states that are battlegrounds. But the thing is, he doesn't HAVE TO win all of those states. He just needs the 264 he has locked in right now, and then just take ONE of the MANY red states up for grabs. McCain MUST win EVERY SINGLE "YELLOW" STATE that Pollster is showing right now (with Obama leading in 4 out of those 8), PLUS take Ohio, Virgina, AND Colorado which Pollster currently has shaded either light blue (Ohio and Colorado) or dark blue (Virginia). Just because McCain starts gaining a point or two and Obama stays right where he is doesn't mean that those states automatically flip back to McCain. It's not that simple, and it's foolish to think that "just because it's happened in the past, it will happen again." Nothing about this race is like anything that has happened in the past. And you neocon right wingers have STILL NOT explained to me or anyone else on here with a functioning brain how, exactly, Saint McMaverick and the MILF win the election in the electoral college. All you say is "the polls will tighten." In an attempt to go all Katie Couric up in here, I'm asking you neoconservatives, SPECIFICALLY, how does John McCain win in the electoral college? Honestly, I want to read your theories. Does he spend the week trying to make up a 7 or 8 point disadvantage in Virginia? That just leaves the other swing states ripe for Obama to pick off. Does he stay on the east coast, trying to keep Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, and hope Colorado, Nevada and one of the Dakota's doesn't flip? Does he give up Virginia and Colorado, spend all of his time in Pennsylvania trying to flip it (yeah, good luck with that one...) and hope that Florida, Ohio and Nevada are locked in? He tried that strategy last week. The result is somewhere around a double digit deficit in PA, the same as it was last week. The right wing explanation on which of these "strategies" he employees (if any) and how he plans to win in the EC should be a classic, and I can't wait to see all the different explanations.

But go on, ignore Obama's ground game that is the most massive in modern political history. Please, continue to think that screaming insanely about socialism, William Ayers, and anti-American and pro-American states is a winning message for you, a message that America wants to hear, after 8 years of a failed neocon president whose policies McCain has adopted, yet now McCain is out there screaming about how much Bush sucks. What, you're just figuring that out NOW, John? Continue to believe whatever bit of desperate piece of hope that Zogby throws at you. Continue to ignore ALL of the sane conservatives that are jumping off the ship and over to Obama on what is seemingly a daily basis. Doing that will only cost your party the election, but please, keep the same failing message. It's doing wonders for the campaign and the image of your party.

____________________

bmrKY:

LOL @ boom**** thinking PA is "definately" going for McCain.

Step away from the crackpipe, boom****.

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bmrKY:

"boomshak:
Obama is going to lose. The state polls are lagging the national trend (as they always do). We have eight days to go and Obama lost 2 points or more yesterday alone in a number of national polls.

Despite the MSM attempt to completely cover-up, spin and justofy Obama's 2001 Socialist Manifesto, the story is stuck.

Obama will spend the next week trying to explain to America that he is not a Marxist."

Crack kills, son.

Bottom line is, the NEOCON days of terrorizing Americans is slowly coming to an end, and you HATE the fact that people are finally starting to reject your parties message of FEAR and HATRED of others. You are a sad, pathetic, shell of a human being, boom****.

____________________

boomshak:

bmrKY:

"FEAR and HATRED of others"...?

How would you describe the Left's reaction to Sarah Palin? Love and respect? Read DailyKos someday. Nothing but hatred.

Democrats are the party of racism, not Republicans. Do a check of history.

____________________

boomshak:

CNN had Clinton ahead of Dole by 15 points. Clinton won by 8. How? They over-estimated the enthusiasm gap.

____________________

boomshak:

DID MCCAIN ACTUALLY POLL AHEAD OF OBAMA ON RASMUSSEN SUNDAY?

Prior to Sunday, Obama had the following +7, +8, +8. Ok, with Sunday's poll, that +7 rolled off.

Now what would the poll have had to be to get an average of O+5 after two days at O+8? This is VERY rough math, but generally speaking, it seems like it would have had to be McCain +1!

8+8+? / 3 = 5, wouldn't "x" have to be -1?

We'll see what Rasmussen shows today. But to move 3 points in one day on a 3 day tracking poll, especially when that move is a complete change of direction, one candidate has to have a VERY VERY good day.

It is quite rare for Rasmussen to move more than 1-2 points in a single day. As a matter of fact, the last time Rasmussen moved 3 points in one day was 09/05/2008 and McCain tied the race a day later after being down by 5.

P.S., It would be really helpful if these tracking polls would show us their actually single day numbers along with the averages. I have no idea why they keep this a secret.

____________________

straight talk:

THIS RACE WILL BE GO DOWN TO ABOUT 5% NATIONALLY, BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GO DOWN 2 OR 1%. BUT I DON'T BELIEVE IT IS TIGHTENING UNTIL I SEE EVIDENCE OF THAT IN STATE POLLING! UNTIL I SEE McCAIN PUT AWAY A RED STATE OR EVEN COMPETE, BUT I JUST DO NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE IN STATE POLLING!

____________________

straight talk:

NATIONAL POLLS DO NOT MATTER!!!! IT IS ABOUT THE STATE POLLS NOW AND THE GET OUT TO VOTE GROUND GAME! PEOPLE ARE ALREADY VOTING!!!! OBAMA NUMBERS ARE GOING TO CLIMB WHEN THE OTHER NATIONAL POLLS COME OUT THIS WK

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zoot:

Boomy, you're looking for love in all the wrong places. Never ever give the PUMAs any credibility. It may break your heart to hear this, but you're pinning your hopes on a small clique of deadheads who could hold a convention in a phone booth. And if you're looking fro an avatar of elitism, try a spin around the park with Lady Lyn de Rothschild.(La-De-Dah, as Diane Keaton would say.)

Sending the good Lady de into Beaver County to pitch the PUMA line to a bunch of unemployed steel workers would top anything on SNL.

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

boomshak:
I think from the outside of the USA, we see more Republicans as the racism party than the democrats.
Obama didn't attack palin for her patriotism, What prove to you, that palin is patriotic, may be being white is enough for you. What is sure that, even if she love the country but she hate democrats who represent more than the half of American people. Amazing Hockey Mom with celebrity clothes.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
bmrKY:

"FEAR and HATRED of others"...?

How would you describe the Left's reaction to Sarah Palin? Love and respect? Read DailyKos someday. Nothing but hatred.

Democrats are the party of racism, not Republicans. Do a check of history."


So calling Obama a socialist that pals around with terrorists is a term of endearment? Saying that he "doesn't view the World the way that WE view the World" is kind and considerate politics? Having a wacko right wing nutjob neocon call for the investigation of liberals in the house and senate for being "unAmerican" is fine and dandy with you?

Liberals, moderates and even conservatives "reaction" to Sarah Palin, as you put it, isn't because she is a woman but because she doesn't know what the hell she is talking about most of the time, and can't even answer a question about which newspapers she reads.

And you are wrong, the modern democratic party is the party of inclusion, not the republicans. We have conservatives, moderates and liberals all in the party. We have whites, blacks, latinos, asians, arabs, etc. in the party and who are supportive of the party. We don't have people rising up at our rallies saying they are afraid of John McCain because "he's an arab" or screaming out "TERRORIST!" at the mention of his name. We are the party of mature adults. You are the party of angry, crybaby little children.

And boom, I just have to say, you are so full of **** that it is quite remarkable to me at times.

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning boomshak

390 EVs.

Some weeks ago i did post that John Mccain would not have a happy morning again in this election.

____________________

DTM:

So after the +3 two days ago, the latest two daily samples in Zogby appear to be something like +5 and +5.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"P.S., It would be really helpful if these tracking polls would show us their actually single day numbers along with the averages. I have no idea why they keep this a secret."

Because one day's polling is worthless except to provide spurious talking points for trolls.

Each single day's polling has a margin of error of around plus/minus five points for each candidate. Which means for instance that an actual lead of 5 points for Obama could come out on any single day as a lead of five points for McCain or a 15 point lead for Obama and still be within the margin of error.

____________________

boomshak:

SO WHO IS THE PARTY OF HATRED?

http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2008/10/27/eea4e24ad0bebec8ecd075bcc90d7d26.jpg

Can you imagine if this were an effigy of Obama being lynched? The person would have been arrested for a hate crime.

So what is being done to this person for representing John McCain being burned alive and Sarah palin being hung?

Nothing.

Democrats - The Party of Hatred

____________________

bmrKY:

@DTM

and remember, Zogby only gives the dems a 2 point party ID advantage in his tracking poll. The advantage is really more along the lines of 6 to 8 points for the dems... and Obama is STILL ahead in Zogs crappy poll, regardless.

____________________

boomshak:

@bmrKY:

If you do the math, it would make sense that Rasmussen would further tighten today as well.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"So what is being done to this person for representing John McCain being burned alive and Sarah palin being hung?"

Right back at ya...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26872774/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/19/racist-obama-effigy-hung_n_135971.html

____________________

DTM:

@bmrKY

Indeed. I backed out the dailies just for the purpose of noting the daily trend is actually moving in the opposite direction as the three-day trend.

As for Rasmussen, I actually have the daily series going something like:

+2, +5, +8, +5, -1, +8, +11, +2, +8, +14, +2, -1

If that is correct, it is indeed quite likely that the three-day average in Rasmussen will go down today (barring another huge day in polling for Obama). On the other hand, if it is anything better than tied it will mean Obama's daily number improved.

Again, though, assuming my calculations are correct, I expect Rasmussen to be the favorite of the day among our resident cherry-pickers.

____________________

bmrKY:

@BOOM****

A guy that you hate by the name of Keith Olbermann named that guy the worst person in the world on last nights broadcast, and had some pretty harsh things to say about the guy. No one thinks what he did is right; no one is defending the guy. I will right here, publicly denouce what the guy did. It is gross and not funny, at all, and this guy should be investigated. Period.


And if I recall correctly, there WAS an Obama effigy hung at a college in Oregon a few months back. And don't forget the murdered bear cub in North Carolina that cruely had Obama signs placed on its body. There was also the McCain staffer who carved a "B" in her face, claiming to have been robbed and attacked by a "big, black man" in hopes of drumming up racial conflicts right before the election. And don't forget people at McCain's rallies screaming "TERRORIST!" "KILL HIM!" and "TREASON!" at the mention of Obamas name, as well as the infamous woman who said she is scared of Obama because "he's an arab." Is that not HATRED? Is that not FEAR? What about the "he's not one of us/socialist" schtick that McCain/Palin, as well as right wingers online such as yourself, have been trying to get across to people? Is that not attempting to spread FEAR? Do you denounce all of those actions and attacks boom, or is it only worthy of being talked about when it's a democrat that screws up?

____________________

DTM:

@bmrKY

Indeed. I backed out the dailies just for the purpose of noting the daily trend is actually moving in the opposite direction as the three-day trend.

As for Rasmussen, I actually have the daily series going something like:

+2, +5, +8, +5, -1, +8, +11, +2, +8, +14, +2, -1

If that is correct, it is indeed quite likely that the three-day average in Rasmussen will go down today (barring another huge day in polling for Obama). On the other hand, if it is anything better than tied it will mean Obama's daily number improved.

Again, though, assuming my calculations are correct, I expect Rasmussen to be the favorite of the day among our resident cherry-pickers.

____________________

straight talk:

RASS WILL STAY AT 5%. THE ONLY REASON HIS NUMBER DROPPED IS I THINK HE CHANGED THE PARTY ID AGAIN!

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

For Rasmussen, daily series, there are many possibilities:

Giving two parameters min and max difference
(for example 4 and 12) we can have a daily serie like :

4 5 11 7 5 4
4 5 11 8 4 4
4 6 11 6 6 4
4 6 11 7 5 4
4 6 11 8 4 4
4 7 11 5 7 4
4 7 11 6 6 4
4 7 11 7 5 4
5 4 11 8 4 4
5 5 11 7 5 4
5 5 11 8 4 4
5 6 11 6 6 4
5 6 11 7 5 4
5 6 11 8 4 4
6 4 11 8 4 4
6 5 11 7 5 4
6 5 11 8 4 4
7 4 11 8 4 4

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radmod:

No, there is no early voting in VA, except for absentee balloting. I've heard that we are already getting the standard fliers being passed out saying that because of issues election day will be on Wed. Nov. 5th. This is done mostly in Northern VA and targeted to low income blacks. Last time it was primarily the "Democrats vote on Wed." line.

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TheLioness:

"But whether McCain does or doesn’t pull it off, Obama has forced him on defense in a place [Florida] that he had hoped to have locked up by now."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081028/pl_politico/14968

such a sad little maniac you are Boomshak...and historically speaking, you are quite correct. Long ago the Republican party was, well, what the Democratic party is today, inclusive and responsible. Would you like to explain to your fellow Americans why that changed, or shall I?

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