Pollster.com

good sample size

If Obama wins FL, McCan't is toast

@Carlita

You said it was going to be close.

This is close.

Not a happy morning for John McCain

Agreed. No conceivable scenario in which JM can lose FL and get to 270.

IMHO though JM will hold Fl, OH, and NC - Fl by 2 pts. OH by 1 pt. and NC by under a single percent. Nonetheless BO squeeks out VA by 2%, easily wins Kerry plus IA, and NM and wins by 4% in CO. More than enough to be next POTUS.

As an observer, the swing to Obama in the South is worth looking at, not just in the battleground states. Based on the current (11/3) RCP average of 12 southern states, all show a swing to Dems. The biggest changes are in GA, VA and NC (12% fall in GOP lead from 2004), but the change in TX (10%), FL (9%),Mississippi (9%), SC (7%) and KY (7%) are significant as well. I calculate the average change as 7.6% move back to Dems across these 12 states.

Of course most of these will remain solid red, this still shows swings back to Dems in a diverse range of states - can't all be explained by migration of well-educated hi-tech/graduate workers! It's only in TN, Arkansas and Alabama that there is virtually no improvement. Can anyone offer reasons why the Clinton & Gore home states are showing no move back to Dems at all? Is this the Hillary effect? It has been a pleasure to observe Pollster's debate for the last 2 months. Thanks to Mark and his team for making this service available. It offers the overseas observer so much more depth than we can get from our home media.

Good morning thoughtful :-)

FL is a tough cookie for any Democrat. Bill Clinton carried FL just once, see?

I love this,

"He is not particularly competitive with the white vote, where McCain has a 57-41 lead, but his strong minority support looks like it might be enough to put him over the top in Florida"

40% of support among whites is the support that ALL Democrats in the state of Florida get. Check Gore and Kerry and you will see that both got the same exact %. You know, the "Southern Strategy" was all about that...keeping whites away from the Democratic party. So, Obama, in FL context, is doing just fine among whites :-)

@carl29:

early voting looks great though.

this poll gives id advantage at +3, with early voting at +8, i think its going to be at least +4. every little helps

Good morning all. The PPP numbers across the board look pretty healthy. At this point, going into Tuesday with any sized lead is great news.

Zogby Poll

Some good news, zogby put Ohio in Obama's camp. along with NV, CO, VA

Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:

Pennsylvania (21)
Nov. 2

Obama
53.7%

McCain
40.0%

Other/Not Sure
6.3%

Obama trails McCain by just three points among white voters, and that is not enough of a lead for McCain. Obama is winning 98% of the African-American vote. The other keys are Obama's small lead among voters over age 65 and Catholics.

Ohio (20)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

Obama
50.2%
49.7%

McCain
43.9%
45.1%

Other/Not Sure
5.9%
5.3%

Obama is now beating McCain among Independents, 60%-27%, an 18-point jump from last week. His other gain is among 18-29-year-olds, where he now leads by 30 points.

Virginia (13)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

Obama
50.7%
52.0

McCain
44.6%
44.8

Other/Not Sure
4.7%
3.2

McCain made a small gain among Independents, but still trails the demographic group by 15. Obama continues to do a few points better among his own party than McCain does with the GOP. McCain increased his lead among white voters, and is now up, 61%-34%. He needs more than that to overcome Obama's 94% among African-Americans.

Nevada (5)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

Obama
50.7%
48.2

McCain
42.9%
44.0

Other/Not Sure
6.4%
7.8

Obama made small gains with Independents (51%-33%) and men (46%-45%.) He trails by five with white voters, but Obama's three-to-one lead with Hispanics and 93% with the small African-American population give him a statewide lead outside the margin of error.

Florida (27)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

Obama
47.5
49.7

McCain
46.2
46.4

Other/Not Sure
6.4%
3.9

We found a two-point drop for Obama, but the dynamic of the race remains the same. Obama still holds a big lead with Independents, but McCain wins 89% of Republicans to Obama's 85% of Democrats. We found more undecided Democrats (4.6%) than Republicans (2.7%. ) McCain has a 13-point lead with white voters. Turnout and get out the vote efforts will decide Florida.

Missouri (11)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

Obama
47.4%
48.2%

McCain
45.7%
45.7%

Other/Not Sure
6.9%
6.2%

McCain gained a bit among Independents, but still trails with them, 57%-28%. He also cut Obama's lead among Hispanics in half to eight points. Obama’s has reduced his losses among Democrats to 10% from 16% a week ago.

Here are the states where McCain leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:

North Carolina (15)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

McCain
49.3%
46.4%

Obama
47.7%
49.7%

Other/Not Sure
3.1%
3.9

The lead has changed from a week ago. McCain increased his total among men from a week ago, from 46% to 53%. Obama is up seven points with Independents, but McCain is doing slightly better with Republicans than Obama is with Democrats. McCain rules in the western parts of the state, and Obama in the East and Raleigh-Durham area. Who will turn out in greater numbers: rural whites or African-Americans?

Indiana (11)
Nov. 2
Oct. 26

McCain
49.1%
50.2

Obama
43.9%
44.0

Other/Not Sure
7.0%
5.8

@carl29

was there early voting sunday in FL? could see party affiliation advanatge +8.5 if so.

@jonny87,

Oh yeah, there was early voting yesterday in FL. I haven't seen the numbers statewide, but at least in Dade county things look good. Already 63% of those who voted in TOTAL in 2004 :-)

@carlita

It seems to me if Obama gets 41% of the white vote, he wins on the back of the AA vote and turnout.

I can't see his Hispanic/Latino including Cuban vote being worse than Kerry's.

thoughtful,

I think he will get more votes than Kerry among Hispanics. I really believe so; I am one of those latinos who became US citizens since 2004. The great majority of us new Hispanic voters will vote Democrat :-)

*Those guys at RealClearPolitics can't bring themselves to post the lastest poll numbers :-)

ppp poll compared to 04 electorates

18-29s (15%) 2004(17%)

hispanics (13%) 2004(15%)

women (53%) 2004 (54%)

------------

party affiliation likely to be more that +3

...obama has room to grow

I have feeling that these polls whilst legit are less (D) friendly as we the Dems need to make sure they get the vote out.

The nternals seem not predicated to 2008 (anticipated turnout) but slightly lower and in key demography of 2004.

Interesting, ha?

@thoughtful

the national polls appear to be anticipating big turnout, whilst state polls are still conservative in there models.

Seriously... this is killing me. Regardless of which way it goes, it's going to take me about 4 years to recover from this election.

@thoughtful:

That definitely seems to be the case. It's possible that the state pollsters are hedging their bets in the battleground polls, assuming that there will be a huge turnout among groups that will support McCain on Election Day, enough to counteract the huge turnout they're seeing amongst early voters for Obama. Nothing wrong with that but that could explain the discrepancy between Obama's national and battleground numbers.

@JamesGlasgow

Speaking of TN, why on earth did McCain do a town hall meeting in Nashville yesterday? Sheesh.