Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

FOX: CO, FL, OH, PA, VA (9/7)

Topics: PHome

FOX News /
Rasmussen Reports
9/7/08
Mode: IVR
(story, results)

Colorado (500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 2, Nader 0, McKinney 0

Florida (500 LV, 4.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 48, Nader 2, Barr 0, McKinney 0

Ohio (600 LV, 4%)
McCain 51, Obama 44, Nader 1, Barr 0, McKinney 0

Pennsylvania (500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1

Virginia (500 LV, 4.5%)
McCain 49, Obama 47, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 0

 

Comments
Brutus1_:

Oooo, real bad news for mcsame and miss wasilla.


This is the "bounce"?? Yikes.

____________________

Justin:

I thought six o'clock was supposed to be the witching hour. Where are McCain's trolling minions?

____________________

boskop:

@justin

YO, right here fella!

and BTW: as obama latest ad trashes palin on the bridge you folks must reckon with the sad truth:

//Though Gov. Palin originally supported the earmark spending on the Ketchikan bridge (“to nowhere), she eventually killed the project, chosing to spend Federal money on other infrasturcture programs.

However, Sen. Biden and Sen. Obama voted for funding the Bridge, even when given a second chance by Sen. Tom Coburn, who proposed shifting earmark funds to Katrina relief.//

how obama can be such a damn idiot to say this suggests his amazing arrogance that no press will trip him up on it.

but i'm here to REMIND YOU tghat he is one BIG G_DAMN LIAR>

____________________

Brutus1_:

Probably still masturbating furiously to reruns of bill o'reilley......

finish up trolls, finish up and come out of your mom's basement for your whoopin'

____________________

Snowspinner:

One thing to keep in mind. Given these state polls, as it stands, from the information available, if the election were held today, McCain would win the popular vote, and Obama would win the EC via Colorado and possibly Florida.

That's the bounce. An Obama victory.

____________________

boskop:

@justin

michelle is dancin' on ellen..
talk about desperate!

every major magazine cover and still
the map is changing color beneath your eyes.

RE; palin's so called extremism that some toad remarked about

it is not part of her platform the point i made. what she does in her own life is her business. hillary staying with clinton was way out in left field, if you were for hillary did that sway you one way or the other?

and then there's the House of Wright. You want a radical brethren fool?

radical and extreme is when a 27 year old guy has to take stacks of audio tapes from his religious mentor with him to harvard so he can go to bed at night.

i call THAT EXTREME!!

so to each their own. are you a member of trinity? bet not. so dont vote for him because he was a life time nut job there until he wasnt. just like the bridge to nowhere, until he thought it was political suicide.

the difference is, one caught on a lot faster than the other.

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

Uh oh, guess the whole Evangelist Christian and Jews for Jesus thing isn't goign over so well in Florida. Who would have guessed McCain would be handing Florida to the Democrats?

____________________

KipTin:

McCain improved lead in Ohio. Obama improved lead in Colorado (which is not surprising since Dem convention was held in Denver). Otherwise, virtually NO movement. All states except Ohio are within margin of error (aka statistically tied.)

According to MSNBC analysts, the four toss-up states are now Ohio, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. I am thinking that Ohio continues to lean toward the GOP side, and it will be Michigan that takes its place as a toss-up.

____________________

Brutus1_:

boskop - it's like you can't understand english or something. When did he say he was against the bridge? He voted against killing the project (as did 81 other senators) because that just isn't done in the senate. You generally don't go around making up amendments to kill other senators' pet projects. If you had half a brain you would know this. This POS bill was crafted with Palin's help and the legendary ted stevens.

Obama was pointing out that palin is an effing dimwit retard who makes sh#t up. And it has been proven in the MSM! So eat that, troll.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/08/fact-check-palin-and-the-_n_124912.html

A new ad from John McCain's presidential campaign contends his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, "stopped the Bridge to Nowhere." In fact, Palin was for the infamous bridge before she was against it

THE SPIN: Called "Original Mavericks," the ad asserts the Republican senator has fought pork-barrel spending, the drug industry and fellow Republicans, reforming Washington in the process, and credits Palin with similarly changing Alaska by taking on the oil industry, challenging her own party and ditching the bridge project that became a national symbol of wasteful spending.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton came back with fighting words. "Despite being discredited over and over again by numerous news organizations, the McCain campaign continues to repeat the lie that Sarah Palin stopped the Bridge to Nowhere," he said.

Burton said McCain would merely carry on supporting President Bush's economic, health, education, energy and foreign policies, and that means "anything but change."

THE FACTS: Palin did abandon plans to build the nearly $400 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport. But she made her decision after the project had become an embarrassment to the state, after federal dollars for the project were pulled back and diverted to other uses in Alaska, and after she had appeared to support the bridge during her campaign for governor.

McCain and Palin together have told a broader story about the bridge that is misleading. She is portrayed as a crusader for the thrifty use of tax dollars who turned down an offer from Washington to build an expensive bridge of little value to the state.

"I told the Congress 'thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere," she said in her convention speech last week.

That's not what she told Alaskans when she announced a year ago that she was ordering state transportation officials to ditch the project. Her explanation then was that it would be fruitless to try to persuade Congress to come up with the money.

"It's clear that Congress has little interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island," Palin said then.

Palin indicated during her 2006 campaign for governor that she supported the bridge, but was wishy-washy about it. She told local officials that money appropriated for the bridge "should remain available for a link, an access process as we continue to evaluate the scope and just how best to just get this done."

She vowed to defend Southeast Alaska "when proposals are on the table like the bridge and not allow the spinmeisters to turn this project or any other into something that's so negative" _ something that McCain was busy doing at the time, as a fierce critic of the bridge.

Even so, she called the bridge design "grandiose" during her campaign and said something more modest might be appropriate.

Palin's reputation for standing up to entrenched interests in Alaska is genuine. Her self-description as a leader who "championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress" is harder to square with the facts.

The governor has cut back on pork-barrel project requests, but in her two years in office, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. And as mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million.

Ooops! Someone got PWNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

KipTin:

Oops, I was wrong about Florida. They gave that to the GOP. The other toss-up was New Hampshire.

____________________

Publius:

And to make things more complicated for McCain, Bush's announcement about the troop cut in Iraq will seriously undercut the national security argument against Obama. Bush just keeps on giving to McCain.

____________________

Brutus1_:

Yeah, 48-48 is not a toss-up. Huh?

Poor Gop is in for a surprise come 11/4.


____________________

boskop:

@SPALIN
@IDIOT VOICE99
@justin /brmapster

if you took a moment to read the cross tabs you'd be SHOCKED!!

for the obama leads and the tie states in the ras poll, the most telling fact is that the combined VERY favorable and SOMEWHAT favorable ratings for mccain far exceed obama.

not good. you can have your dumb commentary. facts are facts.

have fun... but i am one happy camper. keep spinning and maybe you can dance around with ellen too!!

____________________

KipTin:

Yup... on the factcheck, it appears that indeed Obama and Biden did vote for that "Bridge to Nowhere."

Also the MSNBC analysts were discussing how the GOP has now successfully "redefined" community organizer as being both urban and urbane (polished/slick) rather than grassroots.

____________________

Publius:

I would imagine that the elderly Jewish voters in Florida who inadvertently voted for Buchanan in 2000 will make sure to vote for Obama. Palin scares them.

____________________

Paul:

Sticking to the numbers, without interpretation, compared to polling averages, CO at Obama +3 is a good number for Obama, FL tied is a good number of Obama, Ohio at McCain +7 is a real good number for McCain, PA at Obama +2 is a good number for McCain and VA at McCain +2 is a good number for McCain.

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

All those New York retirees in Florida do NOT like the Holy Roller Palin and her Buchananite stances. OUCH!!

____________________

eugene:

hey something is going on here,i think someone is breaking into my compter because i wrote a comment on cnn suggesting obama shold replace biden with clinton because the mccain camp will holla sexism all the time,but after i did that my computer shut down,i couldnt log on to any website,the gop is scared to death obama might just do this because they know they will not have a chance in hell if obama do it,so tell me what you guys thinks about my idea you can reach me at [gungle555@yahoo.com] because it appears the media is not doing their job,because their afraid of being labeled also with this sexism crap

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

What's the difference between Palin and Buchanan? Lipstick!!!

____________________

zotz:

boskop-
Obama is not lying when he points out that McCain-Palin are lying. You are missing the point. The issue isn't the bridge. The point is that the Reps were and are LYING. This is a credibility issue. Obama never said he voted against the bridge whereas McCain and Palin LIED about it! The American people are sick of liars like Palin-McCain.

____________________

Justin:

boskop! You know McTrolls are having a bad day when they start beating the Reverend Wright drum and point out that Michelle Obama dances (on a show hosted by an avowed lesbian, no less!).

And please carry on with the Bridge contortions. My favorite: Palin was in favor of a more modest Bridge to Nowhere (a pontoon, I bet) but said "no thank you" once the project became too lavish. Keep 'em coming!

____________________

boskop:

@voice00/brutus

You are an friggin moron.

obama voted twice for the bridge you fool.
the second time he voted AGAINST KILLING IT>

it is a FACT.

http://www.cdobs.com/archive/our-columns/obama-and-biden-voted-for-bridge-to-nowhere,1628/

also
//Also, Obama and 81 other senators opposed an amendment in 2005 to strike the infamous $231 million “Bridge to Nowhere” earmark for Alaska and redirect that funding to help with rebuilding New Orleans.//

i hate filling this thread with boring quotes but when a troglodyte troll like brutus screams errors it's got to stop.

take a hike, and learn to read.
you're a wasgte of my time and everyone else's.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boskop

Either the way you slice it or dice it. McCain has a national lead of maybe 2% but loses on the EVs on these polls

This is his high watermark. Unless something sensational happens and I think there is a greater liklihood of that happening to Palin or McCain then its down to the debates.

Forget about who says what McCain just looks too old, its as simple as that!

____________________

zotz:

boskop-
You are too hysterical to carry on a rational conversation. Chill GIRL!!!

____________________

faithhopelove:

SUSA and right-leaning Rasmussen both have McCain up 2 points in VA today. The race is a statistical tie there (2 points is well within the margin of error in both polls).

These polls are based on calls that were made in the middle of McCain's Palin/convention bounce; yet they still show Obama well within striking distance. Obama will be visiting the state tomorrow.

Measured against exit poll data from 2004, the SUSA poll under-sampled women and African-Americans by 2% each (favoring McCain). African-American turnout is likely to be higher than in 2004, and McCain is not likely to win 14% of this vote (despite what this poll would have people believe). See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html

Another hopeful sign for Obama in VA is the fact that there have been hundreds of thousands of new voters registered there since 2004. In August alone, 49,000 new voters registered--about 40% of them 25 or under. See: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/06/obama_helps_register_49k_new_v.html

Also, VA is perhaps the only state where reverse coattails are a realistic possibility; senate candidate Mark Warner, who spoke at Obama's convention, is crushing his opponent.

Finally, SUSA and Rasmussen are automated polls that do not call cell phones, meaning that cell phone only voters (who are disproportionately young) are not included in their samples. Pew found that including cell phone only voters improves Obama's numbers by 2-3%.

____________________

brambster:

@niTpiK/Undecided/NickBerry/Nicolee

You must be kidding me with that spin. The votes were for the Highway Bill in 2005 which was championed by Tom Delay in the House and Ted Stevens in the Senate. There were no votes specifically for the Bridge to Nowhere in that highway bill. It only received 4 no votes. McCain was in fact one of them.

When this excessively pork stuffed bill became an issue, the Republicans first tried to pull back $1.5 million in funding for projects in the states of RI, WA and NE, and received 13 votes in favor including McCain.

However when they put up Amendment 2805 which would have killed the Bridge to Nowhere funding and redirect that to rebuild a main bridge over Lake Pontchartrain that had been destroyed by Hurricane Katrina, it only attracted 15 votes, but McCain did not vote for that amendment.

McCain might be against pork, but he knew better than to challenge Ted Stevens because his state does rely on federal funding for such projects.

____________________

faithhopelove:

Here is a link to Pew's cell phone research:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/901/cell-phones-polling-election-2008

____________________

Colton:

Brutus...I could say the exact same thing coming from Obama's hyped up Greek God worship week...What a joke. McCain/Palin '08, HILLARY 2012

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Bookshop, YOU are a friggin moron. This has NOTHING to do with what Obama voted for..the point is that mcPalin LIED.

And for gods sake, will you learn how to spell? Didn't I show you how to spell "choosing" the other day when I went pre-school on your ass? How is anyone supposed to take anything you say seriously when you can't even put a coherent sentence together? Some nerve telling Brutus to learn how to read.

Are you a low information voter or a low information human?? geez.

____________________

thoughtful:

I just watched Obama with O'reilly on the economy.

He doesn't need a teleprompter. McCain won't be able to keep up with him, probably will lose his temper.

____________________

Timmeh:

@Colton

Do you really think Hillary will have a chance in hell at winning in 2012 if Obama loses? The whole damn party will boycott her and blame her for Obama's loss. I can guarantee you that. Besides, how do you know Hillary will actually run again? What if Obama runs again in 2012 after 4 more yrs of Senate experience. He'd beat her senseless in the primaries. Anyway, you're way off topic. This is about discussing the polls!

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

I love the "no movement" argument. Laughable!!! Simply laughable!!

Case in point: Florida.

Looking at Rasmussen only.

2/16 McCain 53 Obama 37 McCain +16
4/10 McCain 53 Obama 38 McCain +15
5/19 McCain 50 Obama 40 McCain +10
6/18 McCain 47 Obama 39 McCain +8
8/18 McCain 48 Obama 46 McCain +2
9/7 McCain 48 Obama 48 TIED!!!

Yep. No movement at all.

Obama needs to pour everything into FL. If he wins FL he can lose OH, MI, CO and NH and still win (as long as he wins IA).

Obama has several paths to victory. McCain's job is much harder. What a day - I was nervous and a bit worried this morning but by now, we're back to advantage-Obama.

____________________

thoughtful:

Colton
Lets forget about Hillary 2012.
Look if MCain hasn't got a lead in the EVs at this high watermark of his campaign, he simply can not win.

____________________

zotz:

Hey everybody!
I think we shut'em up! Dem 2 got nuttin' ta say!

____________________

faithhopelove:

Evidence that Rasmussen is right-leaning:

1) While accurately calling the 2004 presidential election, Rasmussen predicted a Bush win in 2000--by 9 points! See:
http://members.cox.net/fweil/FinalPolls2000.html

2) Rasmussen is a conservative evangelical. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen

3) Rasmussen's web-site is plastered with McCain ads

4) Rasmussen often partners with FOX news (as in the case of the polls here)

5) Rasmussen chose to run a series of state polls in the middle of McCain's bounce, but ran no state polls during Obama's bounce

6) Rasmussen asks irrelevant questions that seem designed to impugn Obama (for example, his recent poll finding that C. Powell would beat McCain by a larger margin than Obama)

7) Rasmussen's "house effects" are more favorable to McCain than any other pollster.

____________________

faithhopelove:
____________________

Tybo:

did pennsylvian just go light blue?

that's a problem for Obama

____________________

Brutus1_:

boscrap-

What are you, Palin's downs syndrome baby or something? Your mommy lied, deal with it. She got caught, and the commercials are coming. You might want to shoot yourself in the face - it might make you smarter. Might.


____________________

thoughtful:

faithhopelove

Fox commissioned these polls. In fact every Monday we are going to get these polls!

____________________

faithhopelove:

Rasmussen has just released a poll of CO showing Obama ahead by 3 points. Two right-leaning polls taken during McCain's Palin/convention bounce show Obama essentially tied in a red state. Moreover, the Rasmussen poll was taken the day after a McCain/Palin visit to this state. CO remains a top-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama.

Rasmussen's poll shows McCain and Obama garnering the same amount of support from Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Obama is ahead among CO independents by 10 points; yet his overall lead is just 3 points. Clearly, Rasmussen has many more Republicans in his sample than Democrats. See:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

Obama will be making a swing through the Southwest next week.

____________________

realitycheck:

Obama's biggest obstacle in this election is not McCain or Palin, it is Clinton. Consider the following issues:
1. Hillary has millions of devoted followers who want very badly to see her elected president
2. If Obama wins, Hillary is all but guaranteed to be shut out of presidential elections for the next 8 years (will she run against an incumbent Obama in 2012? I think not). That means no chance for a Hillary presidency until 2016. At that point she is as old as McCain is now, and likely eclipsed on the national stage, making her election very unlikely.
3. If McCain wins, Hillary can run in 4 years, acknowledging that Obama had his chance and couldn't answer the mail, but that she has the experience and tenacity etc. etc. to beat the Republicans. She would find herself either running against a very elderly McCain, or another non-incumbent.
4. Obama cannot win without the support of Hillary's followers, but if they vote for him they are effectively taking the presidency from Hillary in 2012, and probably forever
What do you think her die hard feminist supporters will do? If they don't give up their dream of another Clinton presidency Obama can't win. Bill and Hillary know this, which was evident in the primaries when they drug them out, which could only hurt Obama's chances, and in the fact that you don't see them out campaigning hard for him. Sure, they'll provide the requisite support to not alienate the Obama fans they will need in four years, but no more.
What do you think? Am I right, or have I miscalculated the political savvy of the Clintons and their supporters?

____________________

slinky:

This poll puts Obama neck-and-neck with McCain in Florida, which is better than I supposed.

The poll does not provide figures on Michigan, Nevada or New Hampshire, which are all contested.

Colorado appears to be firming for Obama and Pennsylvania is firmly leaning to Obama.

This result, I agree, suggests McCain with the popular vote, with Obama with the Electoral vote.

____________________

slinky:

realitycheck:

You must be doing drugs. Bill and Hillary lived through the same last 8 years you lived through. Do you think they are so grandiose that only their occupation at 1600 Pennsylvania is of value? Don't answer that question: We know you do.

But, you are delusional. To neither of them is the office of the Pres. more important than getting rid of the vermin that currently occupies said building.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

look, its very simple. If it were true, Clinton can just announce that there is NO chance that she runs for President in 4 years. She can change her mind later if she wants.

Obviously she would love to be President, but not enough to see the country flushed further down the toilet over 4 years.

____________________

faithhopelove:

Right-leaning Rasmussen has made one improvement to his state polling--he is now including the names of third-party candidates in his questioning.

In FL, Rasmussen shows a tie--Obama 48%, McCain 48%, with Nader getting 2%. There is a problem here: Nader is not on the ballot in FL. See:
http://www.votenader.org/

Also, the poll has Obama winning women 50% to 46%, and McCain winning men by the same 50% to 46%. Given that the two candidates are tied at 48%, it seems that Rasmussen's sample has an equal number of women and men. Yet in 2004, female voters outnumbered male voters by 8% in FL. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

____________________

zotz:

In Florida, I heard that many young Cuban-Americans like Obama's Cuba policies. In the past Cuban -Americans have been staunch Republicans.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=13957528

Also Jewish-Americans don't care for evangelicals or their extremist religious views. Palin's church has connections to the Jews For Jesus organization to which many Jews are opposed.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=2545E446-18FE-70B2-A818DF72CE2A297E

____________________

Robi:

Why would they put nader in a Florida poll if he's not on the ballot?

____________________

Robi:

zotz:

I thought that a lot of Cuban Americans were opposed to Obama's Cuba policy and that it is Cuban's against Castro that support Obama's policy. Maybe I'm wrong.

____________________

Robi:

I also found it very interesting that they did this polling right after the RNC It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.

____________________

realitycheck:

Pinky said: But, you are delusional. To neither of them is the office of the Pres. more important than getting rid of the vermin that currently occupies said building.

The "vermin that currently occupies said building" will be gotten rid of whether Obama or McCain wins.

As for all the comments about Jewish-Americans not liking evangelicals, that would seem odd, since Zionist evangelicals are some of the staunchest supporters of Israel in this country.

____________________

realitycheck:

Sorry, I meant to say Slinky, not Pinky!

____________________

Robi:

realitycheck:

It is the same extremist evangelicals (Hagee for example) that said the holocaust was god's way of punishing the Jews. I'm fairly certain that the Jews wouldn't agree with that statements.

____________________

Robi:

those statements***

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

As a third-generation Cuban from Florida, age 33, I can tell you that Palin's attempt to ban library books hits a little too close to home.

____________________

Robi:

BarakO'Clinton:

yikes didn't know that.

____________________

Bigmike:

So they both got a bounce and MP is up a couple of points at present. That is PV but EV is what counts. In some state there are no recent polls so the info is out of date. I will wait to see more polls in MO (8/17 last), NV (8/26 last), etc. Also, all of these but 1 today are within MOE and none show a trend that is a clear advantage to either side.

Being a visual type, love the trend charts on this site!@!

____________________

marctx:

As I read the post on here I am tempted to make jokes or debunk hoaxes and lies like the book thing that CNN just showed was hoax.

But forget that. After the conventions we are essentially tied. Nothing will change my mind as I'm sure nothing will change Obama people's mind. What is all this talk about? Bashing one another. Where are this polls going to settle? Who are these undecideds? Don't you know already?

My big question is what were the poll numbers one week out during Bush-Kerry? Where do we need to be to win this thing?

____________________

Robi:

I think we need to see state polling numbers a week or two (although the debates are pretty close) after the RNC. I think this flux that has occurred within both conventions will eventually balance itself out.

I think the debates could really shake things up. We'll see what happens. But polling in states at the peak of the convention bounce is slightly misleading (just like polling in states at the peak of the DNC bounce would be misleading).

____________________

Bigmike:

I see a lot on here about adding points because the Dems have registered so many new voters. We hear this every four years but it never seems to matter. The last Dem to get over 50% was Carter in 76 and the last one to get over 51% was LBJ in 64. Why will it matter this time?

PA. I missed that one before previous post. Looking good for OB.

Truth in advertising. Grew up Dem, converted by Ronaldus Magnus, and since then I have held my nose and picked the lesser of two evils. Nothing I have seen in this one makes me think my nose is getting a break this time.

____________________

Robi:

nose is getting a break? What do you mean?

____________________

Bigmike:

@ Robi

It will be getting pinched again on election day! I will vote and pick the one that stinks the least.

____________________

change:

obama +2 in penn state that is bad news, imagine an october full of revren right scream god damn america. i am an obama supporter but it doesn't look good!

____________________

Robi:

Oh...ok

____________________

maddiekat:

change

Your a liar

____________________

Basil:

Enough with the insulting names. I thought maybe "niTpiK" was intentional, since this site involves picking apart polls, and I disagree with him/her/them/it (and the other tighty righties) as much as anybody, but please...

As to Sarah Palin, she has already identified herself as a pitbull, and McCain has already threatened to sic her on uppity legislators that won't get with the program. So I have no compunction whatever about lambasting her. She's Sicko Dick Cheney in drag.

Watching Palin saying that the Iraq War was God's will is beyond disgusting. It's like throwing gasoline on the fire. Whatever God she's channeling (or was told to follow by her idiot pastor) must really love blood sacrifice. 100,000 to 400,000 deaths and counting in Iraq alone. The high number is beyond the total number of US deaths in WWII. Anyone who says it's "only" 100,000 should listen to themselves. The number may be right, but it's still tragic beyond belief.

I know this God's will thing is Dubya's line as well. I rest my case. What a mofo.

Holy war, anyone? I'll take Bill Moyers' Jesus any day.


____________________

Snowspinner:

change - Why are you letting the bar get so high? During McCain's campaign bounce, PA leads the national average by about four points. McCain has not led PA since April.

Maybe PA can go McCain. But if it does, it's not going to be on its own - it's going to be along with Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida. Which is to say, if McCain wins big, he'll win big.

But he's not, and he never has been leading in PA. It's not a swing state.

____________________

Hope Reborn:

These results clearly indicate that these states Lag the Rasmussen National Average as follows:

Florida: +1 Obama
Colorado: +4 Obama
Pennsylvania: +3 Obama

However, two key states lead the national average:

Virginia: +1 McCain
Ohio: +6 McCain

These polls indicate that Obama needs a game changer in Ohio; likely a bus tour with Bill and Hillary. VA is right where they need it and CO and FL are exceeding expectations.

____________________

cinnamonape:

One interesting pint now that we are seeing some State polling come out is that the National polls are showing greater increases for McCain-Palin than the Statewide polls in the battleground States.

This means that McCain and Palin are apparently picking up votes in States that are largely either strongly blue or red at a greater level than in the battlegrounds. If they are in blue States (say Oregon) are these going to be enough to actually shift that state to competitive...and if she is merely bringing out the troops in States already srongly in the McCain column then what value are they?

____________________

Tunanoodle:

Any idea if so many months of Democratic Primaries also equals more registered voters from Hillary's folks as well?

Everyone keeps saying most of these polls are only as good as their template for likely voters.

____________________

marctx:

It hurts me as a democrat to watch the media coverage tonight. I thought after the Olberman/Matthews demotion that unbiased coverage might return. I was wrong. It's sad to see MSNBC/CNN continue to alienate middle America, insult Christians, and pretty much energize middle American to oppose the democrats. When will they learn?

____________________

richardkreed:

I see a whole lot of wishful thinking and over-analysis in the comments above (not to mention some immature name-calling).

Whoever wins the popular vote (and I agree that it is up for grabs) will almost surely win the electoral vote. Years like 2000 do not happen all that often. No doubt certain states will change color; a few will be surprises. Colorado, Virginia, Florida and New Mexico may go blue. But New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan and even Wisconsin could well go red.

____________________

faithhopelove:

A few additional comments to my post above about the FL poll:

1) this poll shows McCain with a solidified base (90% of Republicans);

2) this poll shows Obama getting only 79% of Democrats (Kerry won 85% in 2004);

3) Hillary is campaigning for Obama in FL now (beginning today);

4) this fact, plus party loyalty, should improve Obama's numbers among FL Democrats.

One other note: Chuck Baldwin, a FL pastor, is the right-wing Constitution Party's candidate for president (on the ballot in his home state); rumor has it that Ron Paul will be endorsing him on Wednesday.

____________________

zotz:

marctx-
Too bad George Wallace isn't running. That's the kind of Dem you like. Anyone that likes Rush and claims to be a Dem is living in the wrong century.

____________________

faithhopelove:

Right-leaning Rasmussen's PA poll shows Obama's lead there narrowing slightly--not surprising given the fact that McCain is in the middle of his Palin/convention bounce.

Yet Obama holds this lead despite getting only 74% of the Democratic vote in PA! Does anyone believe he will ultimately do so poorly among Democrats?

Also, Rasmussen's narrative tells us that most undecideds in this state "are Democrats or unaffiliated voters." See:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

No poll since April has found McCain ahead in PA.

____________________

marctx:

zotz:

Who's George Wallace? I'm a Bill Clinton democrat. Don't give me that claim to be a democrat BS. Anyone that has been on this site for six months plus knows I am a Hillary supporter.

I don't care about abortion and social issues. My #1 concern is national security. I am a college graduate with health insurance. I don't mind giving health insurance to the poor if our country can afford it. I bought and sold every house I've owned so I don't care about the housing crunch. I don't feel the pain that this country is in a depression. It's not.

I don't trust Obama.

____________________

faithhopelove:

In OH, right-leaning Rasmussen asks us to believe that McCain is ahead of Obama among unaffiliated voters by 26 points. In no other state does McCain hold this kind of lead among independents. McCain is also shown winning 18% of Democrats. See:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

With these kinds of numbers, it's surprising that McCain does not lead Obama by more than 7% in OH. In 2004, Kerry did much better with both Democrats and independents. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

Curiously, Rasmussen has consistently shown McCain with a lead in OH, while most other pollsters have had Obama ahead.

____________________

marctx:

BTW: I'm not just a Hillary supporter. I supported, contributed, and volunteered for the Clinton campaign. I want my money back now that Hillary is pretending to support Obama.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boskop,

When you stated that Senator Obama voted against the Coburn amendment, did you do any research as to why he might have voted against it?

No. You found one article that says he voted against the Coburn amendment because he didn't want to vote against the bridge. Ever hear of slanted news coverage? One who listens to Lush Rimbaugh, and watches Faux News, and calls all other media 'LIBERAL!!' SHOULD know something about slanted news coverage.

Do you know what categories of issues the Coburn amendment touched upon?

From the Washington Post votes database, this amendment touched upon:

Abortion | Access to airports | Administration of justice | Administrative remedies | Aeronautics | Aged | AIDS (Disease) | Air pollution | Air traffic control | Aircraft noise | Airline passenger traffic | Airlines | Airports | Alabama | Alaska | All terrain vehicles | Alternative energy sources | Animal diseases | Animals | Annuities | Apartment houses | Appellate courts | Appropriations | Architectural and Transportation Barriers Compliance Board | Archives | Arizona | Armed forces | Astronautical research | Aviation insurance | Aviation safety | Biological warfare | Birds | Block grants | Bonds | Border patrols | Bridges | Budget surpluses | Budgets | Building materials | Business | Buy American | Capital budgets | Capital investments | Caribbean area | Charter schools | Chief financial officers | Child safety | Children | Civil liberties | Civil rights | Civil service retirement | Collection of accounts | College costs | College sports | Commemorations | Communication satellites | Communications | Community development | Community development banking | Commuting | Competitive bidding | Congress | Congressional districts | Congressional oversight | Congressional reporting requirements | Congressional salaries | Consultants | Consumer Product Safety Commission | Consumers | Contraceptives | Cost accounting | Cost of living adjustments | Courthouses | Courts | Credit cards | Credit unions | Criminal investigation | Criminal justice | Cuba | Dams | Data banks | Defense policy | Department of Housing and Urban Development | Department of the Treasury | Department of Transportation | Deposit insurance | Directories | Disabled | Disaster relief | Discrimination in employment | Displaced persons | District courts | District of Columbia | Domestic partners | Driver licenses | Drug abuse | Drug law enforcement | Drug legalization | Drugs and athletes | Drunk driving | Economic development | Economic policy | Education | Election Assistance Commission | Elections | Elementary and secondary education | Embezzlement | Emergency management | Eminent domain | Employee selection | Environmental protection | Evacuation of civilians | Ex-offenders | Executive departments | Executive Office of the President | Explosives | Exports | Fair housing | Families | Fathers | Federal advisory bodies | Federal aid to education | Federal aid to housing | Federal aid to research | Federal aid to transportation | Federal aid to water pollution control | Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation | Federal Election Commission | Federal employees | Federal Labor Relations Authority | Federal law enforcement officers | Federal Maritime Commission | Federal office buildings | Federally-guaranteed loans | Finance | Financial statements | Fines (Penalties) | Floods | Foreign corporations | Foreign exchange rates | Forensic medicine | Forest management | Foster home care | Fraud | Gas pipelines | General Services Administration | Government aircraft | Government contractors | Government corporations | Government employees | Government employees' health insurance | Government ethics | Government information | Government National Mortgage Association | Government procurement | Government travel | Government trust funds | Government vehicles | Governmental investigations | Hawaii | Hawaiians | Hazardous substances | Health policy | Helicopters | Higher education | Highspeed ground transportation | Highway finance | Highway use tax | Hispanic Americans | Historic sites | History | Homeless | Hospitals | Hours of labor | Housing | Housing authorities | Housing finance | Housing for the aged | Housing for the disabled | Housing subsidies | Humanities | Hurricane aftermath legislation | Hurricanes | Idaho | Identification devices | Illegal aliens | Illinois | Immigration | Independent regulatory commissions | Indian housing | Indians | Industrial relations | Influenza | Information technology | Infrastructure | Inspectors general | Intelligence activities | Interagency Council on Homelessness | Internal Revenue Service (IRS) | International finance | Internet | Interstate highway system | Iowa | Islands | Judges | Judicial compensation | Labor | Laboratories | Land transfers | Landing aids (Aeronautics) | Latin America | Law | Lead poisoning | Leases | Legal fees | Legislation | Liability for environmental damages | Light rail transit | Local budgets | Local laws | Local officials | Louisiana | Low-income housing | Maine | Maps | Marijuana | Marriage | Mass rapid transit | Medical care | Medicinal plants | Medicine | Merchant marine | Merchant ships | Merit Systems Protection Board | Mexico | Michigan | Minorities | Minority business enterprises | Mississippi | Missouri | Mobile homes | Mortgages | Motion pictures | Motor buses | Motor vehicle pollution control | Motor vehicle safety | Motorcycles | National Archives and Records Administration | National Credit Union Administration | National Guard | National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) | National recreation areas | National Transportation Safety Board | Natural resources | Navigational aids (Aeronautics) | Needle exchange programs | Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation | Nevada | New Jersey | New York/State | Noise control | North Carolina | Office of Government Ethics | Office of Management and Budget | Office of Personnel Management | Office of Special Counsel | Ohio | Oil pollution | Oklahoma | Olympic games | Pacific area | Parking facilities | Passenger ships | Pensions | Personnel management | Petroleum pipelines | Pipelines | Police training | Politics and government | Pollution control | Potable water | Practice of law | Presidential appointments | Presidential compensation | Presidents | Preventive medicine | Product safety | Public contracts | Public debt | Public defenders | Public housing | Public lands | Public service advertising | Railroad engineering | Railroad passenger traffic | Railroad safety | Railroad terminals | Railroads | Real estate business | Real estate development | Rebates | Religion | Religious liberty | Rent | Rental housing | Replacement workers | Reprogramming of appropriated funds | Rescission of appropriated funds | Rescue work | Research and development | Research and development facilities | Research grants | Restrictive trade practices | Revolving funds | Right of privacy | Road construction | Safety appliances | Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation | Salaries | Scholarships | Science policy | Seat belts | Secret service | Security clearances | Security measures | Selective Service System | Service academies | Sewerage | Sexual harassment | Shipbuilding | Small business | Solid wastes | Space activities | Space commercialization | Special education | Special prosecutors | Sports | Stadiums | State and local government | Stock repurchasing | Stocks | Students | Subsidies | Subways | Supreme Court | Surface Transportation Board | Sustainable forestry | Tax administration | Tax courts | Tax evasion | Tax preparers | Taxation | Technological innovations | Technology | Telecommunication | Television programs | Television relay systems | Terminals (Transportation) | Terrorism | Texas | Tourism | Trade | Traffic accidents and safety | Traffic engineering | Traffic violations | Transportation | Transportation engineering | Transportation of hazardous substances | Transportation planning | Transportation research | Transportation safety | Truck drivers | Trucking | Trucks | U.S. Sentencing Commission | United States Postal Service | Vermont | Vice Presidents | War risk insurance | Washington/State | Water pollution | Water resources | Waterfronts | Waterways | Weather forecasting | Web sites | Welfare | Welfare work participation | White collar crime | White House (Washington, D.C.) | Youth services

That's about 391 categories. Quite the single issue amendment that the chicago daily observer made it out to be, isn't it? NOT!

And to show how popular that Coburn amendment was, the Republican majority opinion was to vote 'No' on the amendment, and the Democratic majority opinion was to vote 'No'.

Mike

____________________

bmcavan:

This comforts and worries me at the same time. Oddly enough I could be talking about either candidate...

____________________

zotz:

Why do you like this stupid Iraq war? We are in debt up to our eyeballs and the military has been weakened. Bush and McCain sold the American people a war to nowhere. Your hero McCain said it would be easy. A year ago he said we didn't have to worry about Afganistan because we already had won. He does have experience but his judgement sucks bigtime!

Obama is patriotic, just he defines it differently. His philosophy is like Roosevelt and Truman (Have you ever heard of them?) Did you know Truman was in favor of universal health care 60 years ago. He began the civil rights movement by desegregating the military.

So, you see Obama is a mainstream American Rush and Fox are lying to you. McCain thinks you're stupid. He knows that coming from Alaska doesn't give Palin foreign policy experience on Russia. He said that because he thinks people like you are dumb enough to believe it. McCain pushed the Drill Now issue because he knew ignorant people would buy it. He knows it won't make a big difference in the energy crisis. It was a cynical ploy exactly the same as choosing Palin. Mike Murphy said it was cynical choice and he is a Republican political advisor close to McCain.

____________________

marctx:

zotz:

You must believe in something. I don't know. Rush and Fox are #1 because they are telling me the truth. MSNBC is last because they are telling lies.

____________________

Tunanoodle:

I just put together a fairly likely scenario that resulted in 269 to 269. I wasn't trying to do it either.

No kidding. I think it will all come down to Nevada.

Wait for those latest polls.

That would be a fitting end to this, if it was tied for EV and went to the house.

____________________

marctx:

You would be happier if Iraq was not a democracy? You want the terrorists to win?

____________________

Tunanoodle:

Where is DunkyDex?

He knows a lot about this stuff.

Including the fact that I am right!!!

____________________

zotz:

marctx-
I am delighted about Iraq's democracy. I don't think it is worth 4000+ American lives and $2 trillion+ that your grandchildren will be paying for 50 years from now. The military's job is to defend the USA not spread democracy around the world.

Al-Qaida went to Iraq AFTER we invaded. In the meantime the Taliban and the main al-Qaida force was regrouping in Pakistan. It just was a bad decision based not on intelligence but on an ideology, neoconservatism.

____________________

Hope Reborn:

MSNBC is the one place on TV that you can get a center-left perspective. With Fox News consistently allowing hard right discussion on air, MSNBC balances it out and provides content to an audience who prefer to hear things Center-Left.

If you can live with Rush and Sean (whose on TV an hour a night) then the world is a better place with Keith and Rachel.


____________________

Robi:

MSNBC is pretty liberal but I haven't heard them make up facts like FOX does.

CNN is the way to go for me if I watch TV news.

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

When I saw those poll numbers and 87 replies, I assumed at least 45 of the comments would focus on the ridiculous relationship of Florida and Ohio. But I don't think a single comment spotlighted it. Unreal.

How can we take any state polls seriously when Florida is claimed as 7 points more Obama-friendly than Ohio? There are sites dedicated to state polls, and on site after site you have posters screaming that state polls are all that matter. Then we are treated to McCain +7 in Ohio and McCain dead even in Florida, on the same day. Okay.

Whenever I think I spend too much time ripping the obsession with state polls, an example like this comes along. LOL. And it seems Rasmussen is always a likely source for impossible simultaneous margins. I remember in 2006 when he continued to insist during one stretch that Jack Carter was closer to John Ensign in the Nevada senate race, than the gap between Jim Gibbons and Dina Titus in the Nevada gov race. I would have sent it back for less manure. The final results were Gibbons winning by 4 and Ensign by 14. It was never anything but that type of relationship, Titus much more competitive than Carter.

____________________

zotz:

The hammer is coming down on Palin.
This is TPM.

"The McCain camp has made her signature issue shutting down the Bridge to Nowhere. But as The New Republic put it today that's just "a naked lie." And pretty much the same thing has been written today in Newsweek, the Washington Post, the AP, the Wall Street Journal. Yesterday even Fox's Chris Wallace called out Rick Davis on it. (Do send more examples when you find them.)

On earmarks she's an even bigger crock. On the trail with McCain they're telling everyone that she's some kind of earmark slayer when actually, when she was mayor and governor, in both offices, she requested and got more earmarks than virtually any city or state in the country."

____________________

zotz:

No interviews with Palin until media starts treating her with "deference"!

This is Dionne from the WP-
"Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, gave the game away when he said on "Fox News Sunday" that she would not meet with reporters until they showed a willingness to treat her "with some level of respect and deference."
Deference? That's a word used in monarchies or aristocracies. Democracies don't give "deference" to politicians. When have McCain, Obama, Biden or, for that matter, Hillary Clinton asked for deference?
A few hours later came the announcement that Palin would grant an interview to ABC News's Charlie Gibson. Recall that Gibson was the co-host of an ABC News debate last April during which Obama faced a relentless pounding. Here's hoping that a sense of fairness will lead Gibson to be comparably tough on Palin this week. If he treats her more deferentially than he did Obama, we will know that McCain's war on the media is working."

____________________

marctx:


GALLUP: McCain opens 15-point lead among independents...

____________________

obas:

I am in Michigan and while my perspective is biased I can tell you that it would appear that Michigan will stay blue this year. In fact if the economy is Pro-obama you can bet on it staying blue. Were losing jobs left right and center.

Obas

____________________

Jacob S:

These polls should be heartening to Obama supporters. Other than OH (Ras must be doing something weird in that state), Obama looks to be in good shape. Obama only needs to win CO and PA to win the election. Let's see what the polls show in one week--that could be very telling.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

zotz:

Unless the liberal media are portraying Obama as anything less than the messiah libs will be screaming unfair. Gibson is no McCain supporter. Like spoiled children, you've had it your way all your lives. To think that any broadcast network, 90% of the cable networks, or major newspapers have ever been balanced is live in utter denial. McCain's "war on the media" as you put it, gives honest folks the kind of chills that apparently run up Chris Matthews'leg when describing his man-crush on Obama. At least the folks know the truth and the chiils are well founded. The people detest the media bullies and they've rallied to support the real victims--themselves.

____________________

zotz:

Former NYC mayor Ed Koch endorces Obama and calls Palin "scary". This could help Obama with elderly Jewish voters in Florida. Koch campaigned for Bush in 2004.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Koch_backs_Obama_calls_Palin_scary.html?showall

____________________

zotz:

NeverMetAnHonestLib-
Am I ruining your morning? Good! Keep letting me know what is working.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

LOL. Quite the contrary. It warms my heart to know that the libs are so scared.

____________________

Florida Voter:

Florida's polling continues to be interesting. It's definitely ripe to be picked off by the Demo's. I think with rising unemployment, property taxes and property insurance (just got my renewal, $1200 dollars more then last year, now $4,100 a year) through the roof there's a disgust with the Repubs in charge here as they said a year ago, taxes and insurance would stablize or drop like a rock. Yes, Crist is still polling at a 60% approval ratings and that may help McCain/Palin, but Crist is more centrist to left of center compared to those 2. So take away the independents and demo's part of that polling and see his support around 40% statewide.

If Obama plays his cards right, our 27 electoral votes may just put him over the top on November 4th.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

I wouldn't hang my chad on that.

____________________

thoughtful:

Zotz

Let me assure you that Charlie Gibson over the course of 2 whole days with exclusive access to Palin in Alaska has sold his and ABC's credibility to the Devil.

Deference is the word.

____________________

Brutus1_:

No one is scared but the repubs.

A filibuster-proof senate with obama in the white house. no wonder, mccain broke out the Troglodytes wet dream. A dumb, corrupt, religious nut from alaska.

Rally that retard base, repubs, rally it!

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Just look at the crowds McCain and Palin are drawing in Ohio today. Thirty miles away Obama isn't drawing half the crowd. Which ticket is taking the country by storm? It's doubtful Ohio is a battleground state any more. The same thing will happen in Florida.

____________________

KipTin:

Your property insurance in Florida increased? Why are you surprised? You live in a hurricane region. My property insurance is 1/10th yours, but then again I do not live where there are hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, etc. I am just glad that I do not have to pay more on my insurance to make up for those who live in areas prone to destructive forces.

____________________

cinnamonape:

zotz: Palin used the money already allocated for the Bridge To Nowhere for an "Expressway...to the Bridge To Nowhere". Except that it isn't being built right now...so it's an expressway to NOWHERE.

Palin says she might use State funds (which are actually generated from taxes on gas and oil and thus passed on to us in the form of higher gasoline prices...for that bridge.

Locals say it will bring in tourists....sort of like that Woodstock Museum that the Repugs screamed about. Except that, as I recall over a half million tourists actually DID go to Woodstock last year.


____________________

KipTin:

Expressway to Nowhere? What are you talking about?

____________________

musicka:

I don't know how comfortable I feel with these polls being promoted so heavily with only 500 and 600 likely voters being represented? This is why I think polls are worthless except as a snapshot teaching tracking tool for trending purposes, or for media fodder. I live in one of the states on this list of polls, and we have millions of registered voters. Democrats outnumber republicans by 12 million in this nation. Are the polls representing this? I am just not convinced.

____________________

Lionidze:

A couple comments. The internals on some polls last week showed that there is still a fluid group of about 20% that remains changeable, even though they have picked a candidate in the polls. That's a large group that will obviously affect the outcome. Polls won't be really significant until after the first two debates, first the presidential on 9/26, then the V.P. on 10/4. Arguing about digits until after that point is pleasant but futile.

THose right-wing reactionaries who continue to wail about the liberal press and favoritism to the Democrats should look at the facts. Two independent organizations that montior the press have found two items... Obama receives more coverage than McCain and Obama receives twice the negative coverage than McCain. The press, as McCain has said, is McCain's "base". He almost never gets negative coverage. He can say anything, flub anything, make any outrageous blunder and the press ignores it. Obama can't sneeze without the press negatively commenting. The myth of the liberal press, encouraged since Nixon's time, has repeatedly been disproved over the years. In fact more of the press editorials supported Nixon than his opponents in both races and have continued to be Republican in their support. But the right-wing, needing someone to hate, have locked in on the idea of a "liberal press". Another lie.

The person who said that Fox news doesn't lie is delusional. Watch Jon Stewart or Olbermann and you'll see a mound of video clips showing how hypocritical these Fox people really are. They are under marching orders from Murdoch on a daily basis and say what they are told, regardless of the facts. To believe anything Fox news tells you is demonstrating supreme ignorance. MSNBC is opinionated. But they generally stick to reality and factual information,things which doesn't bind Fox personnel.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR