Articles and Analysis


Fox/Rasmussen: CO, FL, MO, NC, OH (10/19)

Topics: PHome

Mode: IVR

Colorado 1000 LV, 3%
Obama 51, McCain 46

Florida 1000 LV, 3%
McCain 49, Obama 48

Missouri 1000 LV, 3%
Obama 49, McCain 44

North Carolina 1000 LV, 3%
Obama 51, McCain 48

Ohio 1000 LV, 3%
McCain 49, Obama 47



Obama supporters get out and vote now if your state allows it, as the lines on election day will be lllllllllllooooooooooonnnnnnnnngggggggg!



Obama doing better in North Carolina than in Ohio? I'm not sure I buy that. However, MOE explains it all.


Adrian B:

I think these all look about right to me. I think FA will stay close right up to the wire and then flip on election night but I'm less confident about OH.

McCain hass obviously decided to camp out in FA & OH to make a last stand, but with IA, NM and CO being clear blue for ages it probably wont matter. I think also VA will flip and it may take NC with it.



even withour Fl & OH, Virginia and Colorado plus NM and Iowa will be enough, even if MN goes red. McCan't is outspending Obama 3:1 in MN.



Please GO vote early if you can, and do you what u can to get Obama elected.



Hey Hey Hey,

Maybe its time we put MO in the blue column. 100,000 under the arch!!!! Go Obama!!!!



THe numbers for Florida are listed incorrectly in the poll table. Rasmussen has McCain +1, not down by 2. That should be enough to turn Florida back yellow on the map. D'oh!



Based on history I would guess that if mccain wins florida and Ohio he would be likely to cary Virgina, Norh carolina and Missouri.


tom brady:

Well, not suprising, given the tightening of the races at the national leve, that McCain shows some gains in state level polling. Keep in mind,however, that these are all states that Bush won in 2004. so he's making progress, but it's progress to get back to even.



Something important to notice is that Obama's numbers are between 49 and 51 in all the battlegrounds(except maybe Ohio) and nationally as well. And despite the tightening of the race, which was inevitable, Obama's numbers have stayed static. That means that, even if McCain gets 80% (4 of 5) of every undecided vote, Obama still wins with 50-52% of the vote.

The key of course is Turnout. Vote early if you can (I wish I could) and vote on Nov 4th if you cannot. PLEASE VOTE.



Woot! Florida back to yellow...thanks for fixing the table! :-) Nice to know y'all (the powers that be) read the comments!


There are two separate lines of Fox/Rasmussen polls shown in the filter control and the graph here: "Fox/Rasmussen" and "FOX/Rasmussen", differing only in the case of the word Fox. It doesn't affect the overall trend line, but makes exploring the impact of various polls harder.

Thank you.


Silly me. I should have said that the two "Fox/Rasmussen" lines are in the FL chart. They don't show up everywhere.

My bad.


Why are you obama people supporting socialism. Why don't you just move to Europe if you want to be socialist. Instead of distributing the hard earned money of most, why don't the people who don't have it go out and work harder and make more. Go to school at night, start a business on the side (oh yeah-don't do that and achieve or Obama will take even more of your money), buy A success book, watch CNBC, learn how money works and start saving and get out of debt and quit waiting on the government for a handout or the redistribution of wealth. That is NOT the American way.



Despite Obama not being a socialist and me not beign a liberal, I have this to say:

The "American way" is whatever the majority of American people decide it is. That's democracy, like it or not.



Under Bush, the rich are getting favors the rest of the country don't get. It's not about overtaxing them, it's about taxing them fairly and having them pay their fair share like everyone else. Obama's plan is to roll back Bush's tax cuts for the rich that he made to help out his oil/business buddies. Case in point: Cindy McCain paid $1 mil on making 4. Any of you middle/lower class only pay 25% tax last year? Didn't think so.


Dave Barnes:

@decided, who wrote: "McCan't is outspending Obama 3:1 in MN."

Not quite true according to: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/ which has John spending $3.5M and Barack $1.7M in Minnesota. So, 2:1, not 3:1.

But, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com is projecting Barck to win MN by 8+%.

And, another $1+M is about to be dumped into MN in support of El Tinklenburg and against (anti-American) Republican Michele Bachman so there should be some benefit to Barack in MN-06 and the Minneapolis area.



@cbeckham -

You realize that "non-socialists" Bush and McCain just pushed through a $750 billion bill to rescue the banking system, right? (Which, BTW, wasn't pleasing to the majority of House Republicans until it had an extra $150 billion worth of pork attached). What could be more "socialist" than the government giving handouts to banks? Of course, how would you know, you're just repeating the latest mantra of the Republican hate machine. Terrorist! Elitist! Socialist! What's next? Zombie! He's a ZOMBIE!! ARRRGH!!!


Pacific moderate:

I'm sending in my absentee ballot today in WA, and I didn't mark the McCain circle...




Tax cuts to middle income workers are not socialism....so Bush is a socialist for supporting tax cuts for the wealthy? Unlike McCains/Fox's lies about Obamas positions he wants to give tax cuts to "95% of working families that pay taxes". Obama is not giving tax cuts people who dont pay taxes.

Second, I understand money (i have money invested), I work (although my hours have been cut from 40 hours to 20 hours for the past year), I pay for health insurance thru my employer (63$ a week), I go to night school (gone up 50% in cost in the past 2 years), I try to find a part time job (no one is hiring), I save/I'm not in debt. Its to the point where most young adults that arent in college HAVE GOT to live at home with parents because there are no jobs, appartments are too expensive. I go to school but I understand thers a really good chance I wont be able to find a job in my field. When good americans can do EVERYTHING RIGHT and cant get ahead SOMETHING IS WRONG. 8 years of a republican president, 12 years of a republican congress, and 2 years of record breaking filibusters by a republican minority in congress has caused this. The GOP is a sinking ship and they are tieing their lines to the american people to bring them down with it.




"Why are you obama people supporting socialism. Why don't you just move to Europe if you want to be socialist. Instead of distributing the hard earned money of most, why don't the people who don't have it go out and work harder and make more. Go to school at night, start a business on the side (oh yeah-don't do that and achieve or Obama will take even more of your money), buy A success book, watch CNBC, learn how money works and start saving and get out of debt and quit waiting on the government for a handout or the redistribution of wealth. That is NOT the American way."

Socialism, funny. Obama's proposals have very little to do with Socialism and everything to do with stimulating a stagnating economy in the fastest way possible, by putting money into the pockets of consumers. The package of tax cuts proposed by McCain for Corporations and the wealthy will take much, much longer and have to be much larger than Obama's proposals to create the same level of impact.

What's interesting to me is that the McCain camp and the right wing set keep talking about how a tax increase on the top bracket is tantamount to socialism and somehow un-American. If you take a look at the level of income taxes since 1913, it becomes immediately apparent that this is utter nonsense. From 1981 to 1986, the top tax bracket was 50%. From 1965 to 1980, the top tax bracket was 70%. In 1964 it was 77%. From 1946 to 1963 it was 91 to 92%. In 1944 and 1945 it was 94%.

Check out:


I'd suggest you do a little reading on what socialism really is... Wikipedia might be a good start. I'd also suggest you read about Keynesian Economics.

What's really interesting about this political cycle, and the last eight years in general, is that the right is simultaneously making cries for war and for tax cuts. This is the first time in the history of the United States that this has ever happened. They want the war, but don't want to pay for it.

Getting back to the larger tax issue, even with Obama's proposed partial roll back of the Bush Tax cut for top earners only(which, by the way, McCain originally called the entire tax cut package "irresponsible"... until he started running for President), outside of the years of 1987 - 1992 and 2001 to present, the top earners will still be paying historically low levels of income tax.


european bystander:

@cbeckham: Welcome to the Europe of pure socialism where everybody sits and waits for government to bring salmon and caviar along while doing nothing :-)

What might be a bit misunderstood in your country: Europe does some kind of wealth-redistribution in applying higher taxes on those who are capable of contributing more to common welfare - but mostly within the group of people earning salaries.

Taxes on wealth used to be (at least in Austria where I live) considerably lower than in US and are cut to ZERO currently.

But the general idea behind our approach is that common wealth is not a zero-sum game. Providing health-care and modern infrastructure to the public provides benefits to ALL and those taking a risk and run an enterprises can make money that is worth the extra dollar they might be taxed.

But I like the idea of "buying a success book and lear how money works" - we've seen excatly how well that worked out the other day- didn't we? :-)

But true, fully-socialist europe is looking forward to see Obama as POTUS - even if your "****ing liberals" usually are far away from being socialist.

Regards from Austria,

PS: no cangaroos here :-)



Try telling an actual socialist or an actual communist that Obama is a socialist, that Obama is the man who is going to start the revolution to overthrow capitalism and lead America to a classless society.

I mean, seriously, Obama is not a socialist; he's a capitalist. Go talk to a real-life socialist and they'll tell you he's not one of them. No more than John McCain is a fascist, or Bob Barr is an anarchist.



The best tax is the tax policy that was set forth in the constitution, "an excise tax" (sales tax). The tax system that we have now was started to pay for WW1 and has balloned with runaway politicians on both sides. Let everyone keep every dime they earn and tax the people when they buy something. This invariably reduces the size of government. 80% of our budget is Social security, medicaid and medicare. We need to eliminate this for all. One suggestion is divide all the money we just used to bail out deliquent homeowners and wall street and give it to each household. They can go buy their own retirement packages. Let everyone know they will be responsible for their own retirements henceforth. Be wary anytime the government arrives at your front door and says "we're here to help". They've never done anything but increase the amount that you have to give them. It's the old 80-20 rule, 20% pay 80% of the taxes anyway. I'm not one of the 20% but I'd like to be there and I'm working my but off trying to get there and when I do I sure don't need the government thinking they know what to do with my money better than I do.
Andy Rooney said on '60 Minutes' a few weeks back:

I don't think being a minority makes you a
victim of anything except numbers. The only
things I can think of that are truly
discriminatory are things like the United Negro
College Fund, Jet Magazine, Black Entertainment
Television, and Miss Black America. Try to have
things like the United Caucasian College Fund,
Cloud Magazine, White Entertainment Television,
or Miss White America; and see what
happens...Jesse Jackson will be knocking down your door.

Guns do not make you a killer. I think killing
makes you a killer. You can kill someone with a
baseball bat or a car, but no one is trying to
ban you from driving to the ball game.

I believe they are called the Boy Scouts for a
reason, which is why there are no girls
allowed. Girls belong in the Girl Scouts! ARE YOU LISTENING, MARTHA BURKE ?

I think that if you feel homosexuality is
wrong, it is not a phobia, it is an opinion.

I have the right 'NOT' to be tolerant of others
because they are different, weird, or tick me off.

When 70% of the people who get arrested are
black, in cities where 70% of the population is
black, that is not racial profiling; it is the Law of Probability.

I believe that if you are selling me a
milkshake, a pack of cigarettes, a newspaper or
a hotel room, you must do it in English! As a
matter of fact, if you want to be an American
citizen, you should have to speak English!

My father and grandfather didn't die in vain so
you can leave the countries you were born in to come over and disrespect ours.

I think the police should have every right to
shoot you if you threaten them after they tell
you to stop. If you can't understand the word
'freeze' or 'stop' in English, see the above lines.

I don't think just because you were not born in
this country, you are qualified for any special
loan programs, government sponsored bank loans
or tax breaks, etc., so you can open a hotel,
coffee shop, trinket store, or any other business.

We did not go to the aid of certain foreign
countries and risk our lives in wars to defend
their freedoms, so that decades later they
could come over here and tell us our
constitution is a living document; and open to their interpretations.

I don't hate the rich; I don't pity the poor. I
know pro wrestling is fake, but so are movies
and television. That doesn't stop you from watching them.

I think Bill Gates has every right to keep
every penny he made and continue to make more.
If it ticks you off, go and invent the next
operating system that's better, and put your name on the building.

It doesn't take a whole village to raise a
child right, but it does take a parent to stand
up to the kid and smack their little behinds when necessary, and say 'NO!'

I think tattoos and piercing are fine if you
want them, but please don't pretend they are a
political statement. And, please, stay home
until that new lip ring heals. I don't want to
look at your ugly infected mouth as you serve me french fries!

I am sick of 'Political Correctness.' I know a
lot of black people, and not a single one of
them was born in Africa ; so how can they be
'African-Americans'? Besides, Africa is a
continent. I don't go around saying I am a
European-American because my great, great,
great, great, great, great grandfather was from
Europe. I am proud to be from America and nowhere else.

And if you don't like my point of view, tough ...


I was asked to send this on if I agree or
delete if I don't. It is said that 86% of
Americans believe in God. Therefore I have a
very hard time understanding why there is such
a problem in having 'In God We Trust' on our
money and having 'God' in the Pledge of
Allegiance. Why don't we just tell the 14% to BE QUIET!!!


Mike Farrace:

Hate to pile on, cbeckham, this "socialist" label is just another empty McCain tirade. "Spreading the wealth" is done every day, one way or the other. If you look at the tax plans of both candidates, they're both divvying up the pie and "spreading" the wealth.

The difference is that Obama spreads a vastly greater amount to working families, while McCain spreads it progressively to all earners, with a massive concentration in the upper 2 or so percent. This results in a person with an income of $2.87 million or more getting a $700,000 tax break. In McCain's plan, a salary of $30,000 realizes a cut of about $100. In Obama's, about $800. The Washington Post has an easy-to-read chart here:


You can debate which group will actually spend that money, which I think is the point of tax cuts. I say 95% of people with income under $250k are way more likely to spend it. The wealthy may spend it, yes, or invest it, which is not bad, either. But they are more likely to hoard it by putting it in a safe investment, which does little to stimulate the economy or create jobs.

Also, over the next ten years, McCain's plan will cost more than $500,000,000 more than Obama's. The Heritage Foundation analysis through 2018 can be found here:


So, it is patently hypocritical for McCain to call Obama a socialist, since they are both spreading the wealth, not to mention that his plan will cost the taxpayer over a half-billion dollars more than Obama's.

The real question is, how do you think the wealth is best spread? Obviously, I think it's time to go in the other direction for awhile.


Mike Farrace:

Sorry -- I made a typo at the end of my post. McCain's tax plan has a deficit of over a half-trillion dollars vs. Obama's over the next ten years.


Mike Farrace:

Oh, yeah -- the Andy Rooney rant is pure BS, totally fabricated, which led Rooney to go ballastic at the time.





Per snopes, Andy Rooney has denied this was written by him, in fact he said:
"There's a collection of racist and sexist remarks on the Internet under a picture of me with the caption ‘ANDY ROONEY SAID ON 60 MINUTES.’ If I could find the person who did write it using my name I would sue him."




1 mcain ain't my guy I just voting for him because he's not Obama. I'm for Newt or Thompson.However, McCain is so much more qualified, hell a squirrel is more qualified than Obama.
2 if Rooney didn't say it, big deal, it's how I feel.
3 to the person who is actually justifying TAKING money from one group and giving it to another is just laughable. IT's NOT YOUR MONEY. It's the guys who made it. If you want more money, go earn it. Immigrants have LEGALLY come to this country for 200 years and built their own wealth. It's the land of opportunity. Everyone can make their own fortunes. Doesn't anyone have any backbone or drive to do things on their own instead of wanting the government to fix their problems. My dad, with only a high school education built his own fortunes. He started by selling cokes and crackers on the side of the road. He learned a trade, saved and then opened his own business. At 74, He's not rich but he OWNS his own nice home, a lake home, and has RE with value but has had brain surgery and will have a colostomy bag to wear the rest of his life. He lost a million dollars in one day via a fire to a building without fire insurance because he couldn't afford the insurance and without declaring bankruptcy, paid every dime back. I remember not having food for meals growing up with 6 people in a 2 bedroom home, but he would never accept food stamps. Instead he got up earlier each and every day and went to work opening his store and doing what was necessary for 50 years to send his kids to college and put food on the table. AND HE DID'NT WANT A GOVERNMENT HANDOUT(which your guys tax policy would have increased taxes on a man(my dad) who obviously cold not have afforded it). STOP THE INCOME TAX and put in a sales tax and reduce government by 75% and just keep the military properly equipped. Common Sense!



$250,000 is a lot different income in MO than $250,000 is on Long Island. Both are considered rich by Obama and will be taxed the same.



cbeckham what a novel idea. I suppose you and I are the only two left that actually want to be enpowered rather than entittled



Not only is Obama outspending McCain 3:1 now wait until after he's elected. Instead of drill drill drill it will be spend spend spend




An excise tax is not necessarily sales tax. It's tax that occurs as the result of an event. Could that event be sales? Sure, but it could be on a host of other events including the receipt of wages and production of goods. The best way to define an excise tax is actually in the negative: any tax that is not (1) a tax on property or (2) based on capitation (per individual).

It seems from your posts that you have some strong libertarian tendencies. What's interesting about the Republican Party's stance the past 40+ years is that they have been inclined to laissez faire business policy, yet want to interject themselves in personal decisions that happen in the bedroom and the hospital room that revolve around subjective concerns of morality. It seems intellectually inconsistent to have a government that interjects itself in matters of personal liberty, yet believes in letting business run wild, many times at the expense of the individual. This hardly seems in line with libertarian values.

Philisophical concerns aside, the Federal Government you propose would essentially allow the Free Market to run unchecked. While this basic tenet may sound good and predicated upon economic theory (at least in its most rudementary form), the fundamental issue is that all markets allowed to operate without some level of control inevitably, in some form or another, lead at the very least to economic inefficiency or negative externalities which end up going uncaptured in pricing mechanisms and being born by society as a whole.

At the worst, an unchecked Free Market can create inherent weaknesses that can drag down an entire economy. Markets for mortgage backed securities and credit default swaps are the most recent (and arguably most egregious we've seen in decades) examples of this phenomenon.

Further, the extreme stratification of wealth under a completely 'Free' Market inevitably leads to market instability as the 'lower' classes lose there ability to purchase goods and services as their incomes (and/or ability to access credit) fail to keep pace with inflation driven by the purchasing habits of the wealthy elite. When we hit that point, as we did in 1929 and appear to have done so again in 2008, everything starts to unravel.

An economy that grows at a consistent and modest rate, which allows all 'classes' of society to increase their income at a similar rate is going to serve the populace as a whole better than one that constantly goes through dramatic boom and bust cycles. A well designed progressive tax system with built in incentives for job creation and capital investment is one of the best available tools (combined with other monetary and fiscal mechanisms which would be essentially unavailable under the sales tax and military government you propose) available to smooth out peaks and valleys in the economic cycle, while still allowing innovaters to excel and earn economic reward (get rich!).

A sales tax only approach leaves no options on the table and would result in not only periods of unprecedented growth, but of unprecedented depression; both of which would most likely be accompanied by horrific social and evironmental externalities, the costs of which would have to be carried by society as a whole or be ignored outright. That hardly seems like a desirable outcome.




My challenge is that in reference to the free market unchecked as in the current crisis. It's my opinion that Since Fannie & freddie are "government created" agencies that ran unchecked, this is the whole reason for this collapse. Now those same indivisuals who created this monster are the ones trying to fix it, what a joke. Free markets can have positive and negative impacts, hence the word Free markets. The definition of an entreprenuer is ones who takes a risk. Wall street is legalized gambling anyway so you are taking a risk if you get involved. With the sales tax approach, I believe that was the intent of our founding fathers as to NOT tax ones income but let the tax burden be spread among all equally. In hard times it's still the better off who would be paying the taxes anyway but it is not TAKEN from any man. We don't know what the sales tax approach would do as it's been a 100 years since it's use. My opinion is one of getting rid of the money, power and influence in Washington which drains all our pockets and ability to not only thrive but to survive. I believe the intent of our founding fathers was to "LIMIT" the size and scope of government, and NOT to expand it's reach into put pocketbooks thereby limiting our ability to challenge the government when necessary.



Cbeckham I totally agree with you! Too bad most people are just not educated. I am 27 years young and apparently I'm already heading towards that top 5% that doesn't deserve the tax cut that so many others will be getting under Obama even though my husband and I will be paying in 1/3 of our income in taxes this year since we file his SMALL BUSINESS income on our personal return. I'm a tax accountant and it is so frustrating that people don't recognize the fact that a huge majority of business returns are flow through entities - meaning they are being paid for on people's personal returns - meaning you will fit into the group that gets taxed more by OBAMA and most small business owners don't realize this because they have a CPA do their return. Obama's tax plan only gives us incentive to want to cheat on our taxes and to not make as much as we would have otherwise. Our "tax planning" is for me to quit my job if Obama wins, because what is the point if my entire salary plus more is going to get taken from us! I worked hard to get where I'm at. I came from a single parent home w/ 2 siblings and my mom is a secretary. I know both sides, and the government makes you lazy because I see it in my mother because she works for the government. I deserve everything I have because I worked hard to get there and don't think its fair that I'm being penalized for it!!! Obama gives people the incentive to be lazy, I can't wait for Obama to win, only to see him screw over everyone so that people will learn their lesson.


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