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Franklin's Final Pennsylvania Updates

Topics: 2008 , Barack Obama , Hillary Clinton , Trend lines

Clinton has increased her lead in the trend estimates over the course of the last polls to 6.6 points using the standard estimator, and to 8.4 points using the sensitive estimate. Last minute polls have given her bigger margins.

Now the key question is whether undecideds push her over a 10 point win, or whether increases in turnout by new "unlikely" voters raises Obama's total.

Still a good bit of variation and some pollsters see a strong trend, others not so much.

Pollster variation doesn't make a lot of difference in our trend estimates.

But remember, since the polls don't allocate undecided, both they and the trend estimates are leaving some 8 percent of voters on the table. They will go somewhere, and if they break disproportionately for Clinton you have a "huge win", while if they go overwhelmingly for Obama you have a nail biter or a dramatic come-from-behind win. In previous primaries, the "winner" has usually enjoyed a significant increase in support beyond what the last polls showed.

Cross-posted at PoliticalArithmetik.com.

 

Comments

With the undecideds breaking for Clinton 2-1, I have revised my forecast: Clinton will win by 4%-13%, with a median of 8%, and gain 12 delegates.

My associate at Election Inspection, Elliot, predicts Clinton by 12, also for 12 delegates. Al Giordano of "The Field", a great blog, predicts Clinton by 4.6% for a gain of 4 delegates.

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Joseph E:

I am sticking with my original prediction from two days ago: Clinton by 11% (likely 9% to 13%). This will get her the media attention victory, but will not change the delegate or popular vote race.

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Gmann:

IF, Clinton wins by less than a 15% margin, and gains less than 200k in popular vote. I see this as a win for Borack.
Her Rocky journey up the stairs will be near impossible to reach. Super Delegates will then come out of the woodwork to support Obama and to end this competition sooner.

JMO

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PHGrl:

I'm going to go out on a limb here a predict that turnout in the Philly/South East area will be high, the undecided in the PA "T" will stay home, the under 45 crowd will turnout in higher numbers than expected and the day will end with a hollow victory for Clinton - 5 points (likely range 2-8)

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Patrick:

Regardless of the net pledged delegate gain or exact popular vote gain, a win of 9-10+ pts in PA not only will keep Clinton in the race right through June 3rd (since her fundraising will be revitalized), it will be very damaging to the Obama campaign. And if she wins by 12-15+ pts (which is not out of the question), it'll be disastrous for Obama. PA is his very last chance to show that he can win a big, diverse, industrial state (other than his home state of IL) that Dems must win to capture the White House. And he will have lost virtually all those big, electorally-rich states by double digit margins. If she wins that big after being outspent 3 to 1 in PA, the media will keep asking "is Obama electable?" and he will be on the defensive for the next 2 weeks. Then if she wins IN (his neighboring state) and goes on to huge wins in KY, WV, and PR (as expected), the race will really be up in the air. And the DNC will be forced to make a prompt decision on FL and MI (which may put her over the top in the overall popular vote). That would be a disaster for Obama because the superdelegates would have to consider the popular vote as 'the will of the people'. She's still got her work cut out for her, obviously, but this race is truly unprecedented, both by the candidates themselves and the fact that one of them is still relatively unknown (and therefore, more vulnerable to a collapse). So don't count Hillary out yet.

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americaferreraisafatho:

Patrick - keep on hoping! That's all you got buddy. Your arguments are pure garbage, not based in reality, and so not even worthy of a refutation.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/m.s.-bellows/no-more-spin-clinton-penn_b_97701.html


It was over for Clinton some time ago. I can't wait for May 7, when the race will be over !


DING-DONG THE WITCH IS DEAD!

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RLF:

Since some want to use these boards to cheerlead Please use more credible sources than the Huffington Post to buttress your argument. they're so militantly biased that any points they make should be discarded.

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