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Friday Night "Outliers"

Topics: Frank Newport , Jay Cost , Kathy Frankovic , LA Times , Mark Mellman , Tom Holbrook

Los Angeles Times' editor Don Frederick thinks pollsters are doing better, yet the paper closes down its own polling operation.

The Providence Journal considers the challenges facing political polling.

David Hill says the "youth vote" is unreliable and "over hyped."

Mark Mellman considers underdogs and bandwagons.

Frank Newport examines Hillary Clinton's strength among Catholic Democrats.

Jay Cost looks at how Hillary Clinton won Ohio and Texas.

John Judis sees exit poll evidence of Barack Obama's weaknesses.

Political Scientist Tom Holbrook charts changes in the Democratic primary electorate.

Carl Bialik looks at the delegate math in Ohio and Texas and how many Michigan and Florida voters were "silenced."

Jennifer Agiesta digs deeper into the relative perceptions of Obama and McCain, especially among independents.

Scott Shepard revisits the Bradley-Wilder effect.

John Distasio reports on efforts by the New Hampshire Attorney General to stop polling conducted for the Republican Governors' Association.

Kathy Frankovic reviews the challenges of polling in developing nations.

 

Comments
Hudson:

Uh, Obama won more delegates in Texas than Clinton, according to NPR.

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michael:

Yeah, but we are discussing polling, which predicts votes. If polls said Obama won, Hudson, they would be wrong.

Secondly, hasn't the line from the Obama camp been that super-delegates should go for whoever wins the votes where they are from? I will have fun watching you guys eat your votes when the popular vote is a virtual tie, while the delegates are not.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Obama did not win more delgates in Texas even with his caucus win AND there are still many Supers out in Texas that will likely go Hillary's way. Even though she is currrently listed as behind in Delegate count she has garnered support from most of the Supers, they are just not publicly counted yet. After PENN, the revotes in MICH & FLORIDA - she goes ahead in all categories. STILL, NEITHER will have enough delegates to be nominated until probably the convention when the SHIP JUMPING STarts. Dont mean to pop peoples bubbles but this is the way this thing is heading. Earlier on this site, I was outnumbered by 100 to 1 on people that swore that Mich & Florida would not be counted - well guess What ? IT IS Going to happen. At some point you have realize that.

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jr1886:

Michael: stop dreaming!! Look how far your dreams have taken you so far. "The race would be over by super-Tuesday". Hillary on CBS: "It will be me" I am fun watching you crooks trying to steal the nomination away.

One day Obama is not ready to be president the next day he's qualified to be VP. Well, Obama has responded:

Both Sen. Clinton and President Clinton repeatedly talked about how I would be a great vice president.� (crowd boos)

With all due respect, I've won twice as many states as Sen. Clinton. (crowd cheers)

I've won more of the popular vote than Sen. Clinton. (crowd cheers)

I have more delegates than Sen. Clinton. (crowd cheers)

So I don't know how somebody who is in second place is offering the vice presidency to the person who is in first place. (crowd goes crazy)

I was just wondering, because if I were in second place I could understand it. But I'm in first place right now.

If I'm not ready, how is it that you think I should be such a great vice president?

They are trying to hoodwink you.

I don't presume that I have won this election.

I want everyone to be absolutely clear: I'm not running for vice president. I'm running for president of the United States of America. . . . I'm running to be commander-in-chief.

Don't think you can get both. you have to make a choice in this election.

I do not believe Sen. Clinton is about change. . . . This guide of gamesmanship. . . is the kind of Washington doublespeak and doubletalk that will not solve the problems of this country.

Sen. Clinton and Sen. McCain represent the conventional wisdom in Washington.


New Insider Advantage Poll:


An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll conducted March 9 shows that Sen. Barack Obama is extending his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Mississippi Democratic presidential primary race.

The survey of 338 registered likely voters in the primary has been weighted for age, race, and gender. It has a margin or error of plus or minus 6%

Obama: 54%
Clinton: 37%
Undecided: 9%

InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: � Last week it appeared that there was a possibility that Republicans might crossover to vote in the Democratic primary. (The state has an open primary).

However, this fresh survey suggests that no such trend is developing. The only thing to watch on Election Day is whether Clinton can somehow stay in a comfortable zone of the 40 percent range. This turned out not to be the case in Wyoming.
There is some possibility that turnout patterns might allow for a slightly better chance of a face-saving number for Clinton. However, virtually all of the African-American respondents have moved in Sen. Obama's direction since last week, and this consolidation which, as we noted last week, always occurs late in southern-state races all but assures a solid Obama win on Tuesday.

Well, good for them. They listen to what I said yesterday here /blogs/poll_insideradvantage_mississi.html
when they released their stupid poll. Though this one is still far short from what the margin will be tomorrow but it's an improvement. Here's what I wrote yesterday

Nonsense, nonsense!! I hope IA don't publish a new poll before Mississippi so they can be ridiculed.

The deep south votes along racial line this primary cycle. In Mississippi, it will be no different. Here's one important fact to mull over: The AA population vote as a monolithic group in MS and they should be expected to make up 60% of the primary electorate because favorite son Obama is running.

Obama is poised to get 92% of the AA votes and will net 30% of White voters.


So crunching these numbers in using the amazing pollster.com spreadsheet, here are the predicted final result for MS:

AA making up 60%: Obama 92%-08%
White 36% : Clinton 70%-30%
Latino 04% :Clinton 67%-33% getting her usual share.

Result:

Barack Obama 67.3%

Hillary Clinton 32.7%

After rounding:

Obama 67%

Hillary 33%

Insider Advantage can copy these numbers for their pre-redemption poll!!

Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Ps:

John-Spokane , WA

Get your facts. Obama won more delegates than Clinton in TX. Well, what does facts mean for you guys?

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John - Spokane, WA:

You'll see Jr. - 30% of the delegate vote is not accounted for yet, just watch and wait till the counting is done.

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jr1886:

If that's what you are now saying I am with you on that but according to the most conservative estimate Obama is set to gain +3 more delegates than Clinton.

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jr1886:
NBC News has given one more delegate to Obama based on the Texas caucus results, bringing NBC News' total to a 92-92 tie so far with nine Texas caucus delegates still unallocated.

Emphasis: 9 more delegates in TX causus still to be allacoted. And, as a volunteer for Obama who was @ the caucus on election day, there's no ways she will gain more of the 9 delegates left.

So, Obama won TX!!!

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All the good links on polling, and what we have is the usual routine.

Look, guys, this is quite over. It is completely unreasonable to think that Clinton will catch Obama in pledged delgates - even if Michigan and Florida do manage to re-vote. It's really not worth debating unless you have a magazine or a website to push.

Meanwhile, we get to see how polls behave in this environment while we recount how they have been behaving. The short answer is "rather badly". I'm curious as to how this might play in the general election if it's a real feature of Obama's insurgent campaign style.

That's the interesting story here, and there were a lot of good links up there - ranging from throwing in the towel (LA Times) to dissing kids (David Hill). These are far more interesting than the Democratic race, which has been over since Wisconsin. Just cool down the rhetoric a bit, and if you do have a point try to be succinct. Thanks.

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Andrew S. in California:

Who cares who won more the fact is that Obama has a 99 delegate lead and even in the event of a revote in Florida and Michigan if Hillary wins those states at 60% to 40% Obama still maintains a lead in pledged delegates. If he happens to continue to split super delegates at his 45% cut he'll clinch the nomination. I'd expect him to lose Florida at about 40% after campaigning there and him to win Michigan realistically.

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Anthony:

First off, I am a Clinton supporter, but can be objective--I know that's an anomaly. I believe that when all is done that Obama will maintain his delegate lead. I also believe that Clinton has a high possibility of having the popular vote in her corner. I believe counting Mich and FL now makes the pop. vote extremely close and should be at least a general idea on how the re-do will turn out. Democrats will then have to decide which is more important. By the time all the voting ends, I believe both candidates will have valid arguments as to why they should be the party's nominee. The superdelegates will then have to make their decisions. I am going to be at the DNC as a consultant for Si-TV so I'm sure I'll get to see all the Sh*& hit the fan. It will be interesting to observe.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Just like I told you guys before when you said there will be no revotes in Flordia & Mich - She wins Penn, Florida, Mich & perhaps KY, even if she finishes up behind in Pledge delegates (she probably will) Superdelegates count in case you forgot. She will overtake him in that respect to give her a slight edge. Still neither will have enough & it goes to the convention. Just watch.

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Observer:

Insider Advantage poll -Mississipi Obama 63 Hillary 37 plusminus 6 is a joke. Adding 6 to Hillary taking that away from Obama makes it
57/43 which has a lot less pscychological impact on the vote than 63/37.

Plus minus six would fit any figures pulled out of a hat.

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