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Articles and Analysis

 

Friday Night "Outliers"


Ron Brownstein unveils a massive micro-subgroup analysis of twenty years worth of exit poll data in a National Journal cover story on the "hidden history of the American electorate." It includes detailed interactive charts -- see this example to see how 14 Hispanic subgroups voted since 1988.

Gallup gives Democrats a six-point lead on the generic congressional ballot and says debate gave the third debate to Obama.

Rasmussen's respondents also rate Obama the winner.

Anna Greenberg and David Walker review trends among women voters in battleground states

Nate Silver continues to fisk Drudge.

Michael McDonald adds an analysis of new registrants in Nevada and plots 200 years of voter turnout.

A single trader drove up the price of McCain "stock" on intrade - can a single respondent have that much influence on a survey?

Simon Rosenberg expects McCain to close strong.

Marc Ambinder points to the Gerber and Green study on the ineffectiveness of robo-persuasion calls.

John Sides reviews The Persuadable Voter , the new book on microtargetting and wedge issues by Sunshine Hillygus and Todd Shields, and posts a trove of Polisci links, including Erikson and Bartels predictions of an Obama victory and Holbrook's electoral college forecast.

And for those who missed it...

(And if CNN's finicky embedded video isn't working, try this link).

 

Comments
DTM:

Excellent appearance on CNN.

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aaronas:

I resent John Roberts's implication that the viewer at home is too stupid to understand the complexities of your statistical analysis. His assumption that his viewer is ignorant is itself ignorant and uncivilized.

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Look at this map based on Pollster.com but explained by Mrs. Sarah Palin, B.S. at the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog...

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RossPhx:

John Roberts has yet to learn how to pronounce Lancaster, the town in Pennsylvania where Palin inexplicably is wasting her time this morning.

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Gary Kilbride:

I appreciate the daily outliers. That was an interesting article on the rogue trader on Intrade, including his tendency to buy massive quantities of contracts in the middle of the night when action was lowest.

I can't believe John Roberts was asking about travel plans and other generic nonsense, instead of questions relevant to Mark Blumenthal and Pollster.com. Finally he got to the Bradley Effect in the final seconds.

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