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GA: Chamblis 49, Martin 46 (DailyKos/Res2000 11/10-12)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
11/10-12/2008; 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Georgia

Sen: Chambliss (R-i) 49, Martin (D) 46

Chambliss: 54 favorable, 44 unfavorable
Martin: 55 favorable, 42 unfavorable

 

Comments
RossPhx:

Is there enough left of the Obama machine to make the special-election voter turnout higher for the Democrats, for a change?

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George M. Goodburn:

Will the general enthusiasm of the past week or ten days be reflected in the vote on Dec. 2? Will the continued implosion of the national economy have an influence in the decision of voters?

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tjampel:

The interesting question is whether this race will be perceived as the one which puts the Dems over 60 and how that sells to both bases.

Looks like we'll certainly know about AK by early next week and it doesn't look good for Stevens right now with an 800+ vote deficit and much of the remaining pool of votes coming from Begich-friendly areas.

Franken/Coleman is pure tossup at this point, with a slight lean towards Coleman based on how past recounts have resulted in shifting cote totals. It's rare to produce anything close to 1000 votes but a few hundred either way is possible. The difference...just over 200...provides some real suspense for the recount to be played out in.

Will the recount numbers be announced as they come in or will we have to wait fore the whole thing to finish before knowing the outcome? Anybody know?

If it's an ongoing process and Franken looks like he's making steady progress in narrowing the gap then vastly more media and party attention will be focused on GA. I think this will work to Martin's advantage in that you can sell the idea of Obama + a cooperative Congress to those who are invested emotionally in his Presidency. The key is turning out anything close to the numbers who voted for him in the Presidential election. Special elections rarely get much more than 50% of main election turnout but this one will be a little different. We'll just have to wait.

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Basil:

How well did GOP GOTV in GA on Nov.4?

One would imagine that Dem forces would come out for Martin in a runoff, if Obama appeals to them. But will the R's match it?

Atlanta is a nexus of neocon sentiment (Newt's just across the Chattahoochee), and those ol' boys have plenty of ill-gotten gains to spread around on Chambliss's behalf. They certainly aren't above the usual scare tactics, either.

Again, AA's may be the real heroes of democracy.

We're all Georgians.

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DTM:

That's a good number for Martin insofar as it puts it within range of a turnout battle. Generally I'd give a slight edge to the Democrat in a case like this, since they have recently been on a winning streak in special elections thanks to the enthusiasm gap. But like everyone else, I'm not sure how Obama winning and the Democrats approaching 60 will affect Republican turnout.

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thoughtful:

I think this looks very difficult for Martin. I am still of the opinion that the November 4th numbers didn't stack up in any case.

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cinnamonape:

That's within the MOE for this survey for the last couple of their polls. It will be very interesting regarding the turnout effect. This is one state that the DNC should have left field offices open in, if not rushed resources to after the General election.

This will be all about turnout and organization. If the Democrats can emphasize just how critical this vote is to the success of the Obama Presidency then there may be a strong turnout. I'm not sure if the Republican response that they need to "block" Obama's ability to govern will have as much resonance.
Of course, the Republicans are pushing a lot of fear out there...about Obama introducing laws that would shut down Limbaugh and Hannity (when in fact the only thing that might happen is require them to allow those attacked by them to respond).

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cinnamonape:

"Thoughtful:I am still of the opinion that the November 4th numbers didn't stack up in any case?"

You think that there was fraud? What evidence do you have of that?

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Paul:

There are still three Senate seats in play: MN, AK and GA. MN appears headed for a long process, and appears would not be decided until weeks after the GA runoff. If a recount is not decisive, and the courts and Congress cannot figure it out, one of the possible outcomes in MN is that another election is ordered in the Spring. (Point being as to GA, we will not know whether GA represents the 60th vote in all likelihood prior to the election). AK --- ballots from all over are still being counted, questioned, disputed and who knows what? If Begich is declared victorious before the GA runoff and Stevens does not "appeal" (I do not know what the rules in AK are --- help needed from you AK election experts), then Dems have 58 in the Senate. GA --- at least we know there is an election. So it seems reasonable to project that on the eve of the GA runoff, Dems would have 57 seats or 58 seats but not 59 seats.

Finally, and still of a great significance is the Lieberman question. There has not been any great hurry to settle the question I suspect not unrelated to the 60 seat matter. If AK or GA goes against the Dems, I suspect that makes a decision by the Dems to not support Lieberman continuing in the Dem caucus a lot easier.

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polls_apart:

@Paul:
The Senate Democratic Caucus is scheduled to decide Lieberman's status on Tuesday, Dec. 16. The last votes in AK are to be counted on Tuesday, and GA won't be decided until the Dec. 2 runoff. Thus, results in these states won't play into the decision about Lieberman.

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political_junki:

Hello to all my Friends and fellow brethren,
I heard today on the radio that Obama is going to cut funding of all
cancer related research programs by over 100%. They also said he is
going to increase funding for bear and wolf semen testing by over $48
Billion. Combine that with the $78 Trillion bailout plan, and we are
in for a disaster.
Obama hates people with cancer.
Obama loves Bear and Wolf sperm.
Obama is going to cripple our world's economy, and maybe more.
And...I am 100% qualified to say this, read my credentials.
Kindest Regards,
Dr. Arthrup J. McShazzlestein III, Minister, Eagle Scout
President of United Forum Infuriation Committee
Vice Secretary - Madison Heights East Central Neighborhood Watch Unit
PhD,DDS,MD,CISSP,APR,MCSE,A+,Net+,Security +,JFC+,WTF
+,O-,CNUT,CCNE,FDIC,FCKU,SIHT,PSIS,SEC,MSRP,NCOIC,CAOC-N,NASA,CIO
Dishonorably Discharged Disabled Army Air Corps Veteran
United Church of Gods High Earth - Jewish Catholicism Mormonist Sect
Puerto Puta Pequena, Texas, 97108
"Minister Dr. Arthrup J. McShazzlestein, III, has been awarded the
prestigious 'two fists up' award, our highest honor, because of his
honest, true, and heartfelt contributions to the internet community."

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political_junki:

By the way last post was a generic excerpt from a Rush Limbaugh program :))

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CTPonix4BHObama:

How do they figure out the voter turnout model to get these number? I've been curious about that. Do they use the updated turnout from the Nov. 4 election and then tweak it?

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