DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
10/14-15/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 49, Obama 43
Sen: Chambliss (R-i) 47, Martin (D) 45, Buckley (L) 5
Gap narrowing towards Obama in one of the reddest of red states. Must be the "surge" I've been hearing about.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:17 AM
Going to be tough for Obama to win Georgia, if Bob Barr isn't a factor.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:31 AM
Right now I would also still bet against Obama winning Georgia (although if there is just one more major move in his direction, it could be close). On the other hand, even getting it as close as it is now gives Martin a shot.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:47 AM
The Senate race probably has a better chance to go the Dems way so it looks like we will have to keep an eye on that.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:55 AM
Does this mean that McCain has to at least spend some money there?
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:19 AM
GA will be closer than people think.. but it won't turn blue.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:20 AM
Seems like everyone here overanalizes all these polls. As far as I see it if the race nationaly is within 3% then the swing states matter. If one canidate wins by 4% or more then the swing states will mostly fall there way. We have seen this allready. In september when mccain led for a couple weeks he moved ahead in the EV projections. Now as Obamas lead grew to high single digits his results in stat polling improve.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:23 AM
Interesting how RCP is including the DailyKos state polls, but not the national poll. Why is that?
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:26 AM
If O wins by 8 then the map will look alot like 96. If O wins by 1-3 the map wont look alot different than 2000. The only exception to this would be that O could out preform historical dems in states with high percentage of AA voters. But even that is would be only a point or two.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:29 AM
In order for O to squeak out a win in GA he has to win nationaly by 10%. Not likely.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:31 AM
No, he can't afford to. He will just have to hope Georgia stays red...the money is badly needed in other places.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:32 AM
Pretty much an identical result to R2K's last poll, except McCain is now below 50%:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (D), 10/14-15 (9/29-10/1)
McCain 49 (50)
Obama 43 (43)
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:33 AM
Mccain wont spend money in GA because he dosnt have to. He wont lose GA.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:34 AM
McCain wont spend money in GA, not because he doesn't "have to" but because if he loses Georgia he's lost Virginia, North Carolina, and mostly likely Florida too.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:37 AM
McCain won't spend money in GA, not only for those reasons, but also because he simply doesn't have the money to spend in GA at this point.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:42 AM
AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...
...a 16 point sampling advantage to Democrats and it's a 2 point race!
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:48 AM
GA may still stay Red but I've heard a lot of traditional Republicans say that they are not going to vote this time, add to this the massive voter turnout in college towns and in AA/His areas and this one isn't going to be called when the polls close on Nov 4th as it has been in the past
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:50 AM
That WEIGHTING ADVANTAGE on the AP/Yahoo Poll has got to be the most obscene I have ever encountered - 16 points and the race is almost tied?
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:54 AM
Yes! Boomshack enjoy this poll!
I admire you that you are still hoping against hope.
this poll is different type of poll.
you can check the methodology.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:57 AM
The Supreme Court has just sided with the SoS of OH and declared that voter fraud is now legal.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:05 PM
TRULY BEYOND BELIEF:
High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute
Oct 17 11:50 AM US/Eastern
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Supreme Court is siding with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.
The justices on Friday overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.
Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases.
Ohio Republicans contended the information for counties would help prevent fraud. Brunner said the GOP is trying to disenfranchise voters.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:11 PM
The Supreme Court (properly in my view) decided the appeal on standing grounds, not on the merits. In particular, they held that the law in question does not allow private entities like the Ohio GOP to bring civil enforcement suits.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:47 PM
Voter fraud is a myth. Suppression is a desperate specialty of one of the two parties. I can't remember which one.
Jennifer Brunner in Ohio. Ross Miller in Nevada. Many others. The secretary of state project in 2006 paid dividends in securing many of those key statewide positions.
Overall I have to give the Republicans credit. They quietly stole tens of thousands of votes before election day every cycle via suppression but managed to brainwash Democrats into ignoring that and focusing on loony tune machine antics. Well done.
Anyway, I managed to play Georgia at bargain rate. Kudos to some of the sites that hyped the early voting and tried to pretend Georgia was in play. If Obama wasn't leading Georgia at the peak of his lead he darn sure can't pull it out when the race naturally tightens. Some of this stuff is so darn complicated.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:48 PM
Obama needs to pursue Georgia even if he can't win Georgia because of two reasons:
1 - To force McCain to waste his money in a solid red state so Obama can outspend McCain even further in CO, OH, FL, and VA.
2 - With Democrats with leads in OR, MN and NC, the Georgia senate race is going to be the key race in getting a fillibuster-proof 60-40 majority in the Senate.
Georgia could make an Obama presidency a heck of a lot easier.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:58 PM
Boom: "That WEIGHTING ADVANTAGE on the AP/Yahoo Poll has got to be the most obscene I have ever encountered - 16 points and the race is almost tied?"
Boom, what you actually should consider "obscene" is why on randomly sampled populations of likely voters the respondants state that they are Democrats at that frequency.
Unlike Rasmussen these polls are actually based on stated preferences by those polled. In other words they are not "weights" at all.
Posted on October 17, 2008 1:59 PM
The Republicans have decided to pull their ad money in Colorado to help Saxby in Georgia. His slide has been precipitous.
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 and Insider Advantage show it to be within the MOE.
Strategic Vision (R) has shown what once was a gap of +18R drop to +3R within a month.
SurveyUSA has shown the same plunge +17R a month ago to +3R today.
Mellman (D-Martin) has shown a halving of Chambliss' lead to an essential tie.
Rasmussen has shown a steady race however, with about a six point lead by Chambliss.
Chambliss' own survey in early September (POS R-Chambliss) gave him a +19R lead. Maybe he got overconfident.
Posted on October 17, 2008 2:27 PM
I'm confused. On the Pollster map, this puts Martin at 45.8 and Chambliss at 45.3. I got all excited and clicked on Georgia to look at the details, but found that the details don't make sense. How can Martin be leading if he's never led in a single poll since the start of the campaign?
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:44 PM
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