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Generic Ballot: Decline ends, upturn??

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

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I'm between planes so no time for a full post, but the generic ballot that was trending slightly down two weeks ago is now at least flat and perhaps very slightly rising. Too soon to tell what the real effect of the Foley affair will be, but certainly the trend has shifted from down to flat. I'll post more at the next delayed flight (which could be soon.)

Note: This entry is cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments

An aspect of the last few national polls that's not getting much attention is that self-identified Democrats are comprising an increasing percentage of the samples relative to other baselines.

According to Rasmussen's average of party ID figures from the previous 90 days, self-identified Democrats currently outnumber Republicans by 4.7 percent.

However, as I document on my sample-weighting website, the most recent polls (by outfits other than Rasmussen) are consistently showing a 6-8 percent edge for Democrats over Republicans in sample composition.

http://www.hs.ttu.edu/hdfs3390/weighting.htm

This could easily be just a transient reaction to Foley-gate, Iraq, the Woodward book, etc. Republican voters could be demoralized over these events at the moment, perhaps making them less willing to participate in polls. If so, the Generic Congressional Ballot should tighten by at least a few points in coming weeks as turned-off Republicans re-engage in the political process.

On the other hand, perhaps the increasing representation of Democrats in the polls is indicative of a more enduring trend in energy levels heading into November.

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Since Sept. 13, the 3-day moving average difference between the Democratic and Republican Generic poll has grown from 5.1 (Fox) to 13.5 (Newsweek)

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=3213

Survey Dates REP DEM Other Diff Rep3 Dem3 Diff
Avg 38.3 48.7 13.0 10.4 38.3 48.7 10.4

FOX 913 38 41 21 3 42.3 47.3 5.1
Gallup 917 48 48 4 0 40.3 46.3 6.0
CBS 919 35 50 15 15 41.7 51.0 9.4
CNN 924 42 55 3 13 38.3 51.3 13.1
FOX 927 38 49 14 11 37.7 49.0 11.4
Hotline 927 33 43 24 10 34.7 44.7 10.1
Zogby 928 33 42 25 9 36.0 46.0 10.0
CNN 1002 42 53 5 11 37.7 49.3 11.7
AP-Ips 1004 38 51 11 13 40.3 52.3 12.0
Pew. 1004 41 51 8 10 39.3 51.8 12.5
TIME 1005 39 54 7 15 39.7 52.0 12.4
Newsw 1006 39 51 7 12 39.0 52.5 13.5

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Update to prior comment:
ABC and CNN polls just out today caused the 3-poll moving average difference to spike up to 17%!

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GenericPollTrend_11372_image001.png

Survey Dates REP DEM Other Diff Rep3 Dem3 Diff

FOX LV..... 913 38 41 21 42.3 47.3 5.0
Gallup LV 917 48 48 4 40.3 46.3 6.0
CBS/NYT RV. 919 35 50 15 41.7 51.0 9.3
CNN LV .....924 42 55 3 38.3 51.3 13.0
FOX LV..... 927 38 49 14 37.7 49.0 11.3
Hotline RV..927 33 43 24 34.7 44.7 10.0
Zogby LV.. 928 33 42 25 36.0 46.0 10.0
CNN LV .....1002 42 53 5 37.7 49.3 11.6
AP-Ipsos RV 1004 38 51 11 40.3 52.3 11.9
Pew RV..... 1004 41 51 8 39.3 51.8 12.4
TIME LV.... 1005 39 54 7 39.7 52.5 12.8
Newsweek RV 1006 39 51 7 39.7 54.3 14.6
ABC RV......1008 41 54 5 39.0 54.3 15.3
CNN LV .....1008 37 58 5 39.0 56.0 17.0

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