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H1N1 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Teagan Goddard and Andrew Sullivan wonder what country Rasmussen Reports is polling; Scott Rasmussen responds.

David Hill reviews the Gallup ideology trends.

Jennifer Agiesta examines the Obama factor in the Virginia governor's race.

Mark Mellman says what's controversial with voters on health reforms is not with lawmakers, and vice versa.

Glen Bolger and Jim Hobart recommend an economic message for Republicans.

Resurgent Republic quarrels with CNN/ORC's cap and trade question wording.

Nate Silver lampoons a misleading Zogby question.

Jim Geraghty ponders divergent polls in New Jersey.

Alan Reifman tracks health care interest with Google Trends.

Megan McArdle explores polling mysteries.

Salena Zito polls opinion polls and finds Americans fed up (via Reynolds).

Jessica Hagy says is it all (via Flowing Data & Sullivan):


2009-10-28_Hagy.jpg

P.S.: I'm a bit under the weather with a bug bearing a strong resemblance to H1N1. Hopefully back to full speed soon.

 

Comments
vinve wagner:

I have wondered about Rasmussen's polls in recent weeks so I went back to the final polls
in the 2008 presidential election focusing on swing states i.e Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Florida. In Indiana, Florida, and North Carolina Rasmussen was wrong in its forcast of the outcome predicting a Republican victory. In Colorado, Nevada,
Ohio, Pennsylvania Rasmussen under estimates Democratic votes and over estimates Republican votes. Its apparent to me that Rasmussen's likely voter profiles skews 2-3% to the Republican side. Polls like ARG, PPP and Quinnipiac appeared to have better forcasts
in these swing states. Whether Rasmussen's model underrepresents African-American and Hispanic voters i will leave to the experts.
I in no way suggest anything deliberate in the application of the methodology. Nationally Rasmussen called the election right on the money. I am only suggesting that as turn out is effected by the candidate and the polarization of politics it may be wise for all pollsters to reassess their models/methodologies accordingly.

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