Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

House 06: National forces estimate

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

HouseNationalForces1103small.png

I estimated the net national forces in the Senate rate last night. Here is the same estimation procedure applied to the House. This is based on 86 House races with a total of 380 polls. This is much less dense than the Senate data, but the results are surprisingly stable. Unlike the Senate, however, the data do not extend back in time very far, so the starting point here is June 1, 2006. The size of the effects here are also NOT comparable to the Senate forces, since both are estimated independently and the zero point is arbitrary in both cases. Relative movement is meaningful, so it is fine to say that since June 1 the net national forces in the House (for these 86 races) have risen about 6 percentage points.

As with the Senate, this is a good explanation for why so many House seats held by Republicans are now competitive. UNLIKE the Senate, these effects appear to have continued to grow recently. Even a much rougher fit still produces the upward rise at the end. This also is consistent with the growth in the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot, though the details of the dynamics are somewhat different.

The evidence then is favorable to larger than anticipated Democratic gains in the House, but smaller gains in the Senate, at least as of November 3. Four days to go.

Note: This entry is cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments
Dan:

I find your estimate of National Forces to be ridiculous. Vote Democrat on November 7th because of the real issues and real problems that our country is facing such as record setting costs of health care, the fact that 50 million Americans do not have health insurance, the fact that our country has record setting budget and trade deficits, the fact that the middle class and working people in our country are being ignored by Bush and the Republicans and their jobs are being outsourced to other countries in record numbers. The fact that we are in a war in Iraq that costs our country 5 billion dollars a month and the Republicans do not have an exit strategy or plan to get out country out of this mess in Iraq. We have become a very simple minded country if our votes are being influenced by what someone "says" on TV. Vote on the real issues on November 7th, and if you Vote on the real issues and not on the media spin then you will VOTE DEMOCRAT ON NOVEMBER 7TH! I am calling November 7th "Touchdown Tuesday" because the Democrats need 6 Senate Seats (you get 6 points when you score a Touchdown in football) to win back the Senate. Let's score a Touchdown on November 7th and win back the Senate, and the House of Representatives! Check out my weight training website: www.bigguysgym.com and VOTE DEMOCRAT ON NOVEMBER 7TH!

____________________

kirk Clarke:

The Voters in Ohio and the Law Enforcement agents need to keep an eye on Kenneth Blackwell the Secretary of State in the Buckeye state.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR