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IA: Obama 52, McCain 40 (Selzer-9/8-10)

Topics: PHome

Des Moines Register /
Selzer & Company
9/8-10/08; 616 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Iowa
Obama 52, McCain 40, Barr 2, Nader 1

 

Comments
freedomreigns:

This pretty much firms up Iowa. If after the convention bump, Iowa is still strong blue, this state is not winnable.

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tjampel:

Seltzer is the highest rated pollster on five thirtyeight.com. IA has a polling average of O +8.5 over the past few months. When coupled with the recent CNN O+13 poll, which looked like an outlier, it appears that IA is one of the few states where the Repub convention has, if anything, had a negative effect. Don't expect to see a lot of new McCain ads in Iowa.

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Mike_in_CA:

well this confirms boskop's prediction, McCain is definitely going to win in a landslide. He has such a firm grip on former "red states" like Iowa. Gosh, he's only down 12 points! Totally a landslide! On to Vermont and Hawaii! McCain is going to take all 50 states!

/snark

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thoughtful:

No bounce not even a ripple, Nada!

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boskop:

@mike, mike mike..
iowa is one of the four he wins. i never disputed that.

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thoughtful:

Boskop

New Jersey?

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serpounce:

Well that's a definite ray of sunshine for Obama.

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boskop:

@thoughtful

yes, joisey. keep watching

btw: the iowa piece suggests it is still fluid and a swing. i beg to differ. an obama state is an obama state.

true. when 20% of the voters have stated they could easily swing and the population is so incestuous, ya nevah can tell.

if someone's obama sign were to catch fire and piss off neighbors, that could account for the 20% swing right there.

my immediate family could do it too.

viva iowa...
they must have spongiform virus in zee brain...
kidding//

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Tybo:

thoughtful:
No bounce not even a ripple, Nada!

you talking about Obama and texas?
Obama and arkansas? Obama and Utah?
Obama and alabama? Obama and mississippi?
Obama and La?

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Jacob S:

This poll proves my point on MN. MN is very similar to IA. So, really Obama is ahead in MN (and WI) by 5-10 points.

Also, notice that Obama is comfortably in the lead in NJ, too.

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KipTin:

Iowas has NEVER been a McCain state. McCain has made it very clear what he thinks of corn ethanol subsidies (it ain't nice) and Iowa is corn country. On this level, Iowa and Illinois are joined at the hip. Obama is a BIG supporter of BIG AGRI.

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Tybo:

"On this level, Iowa and Illinois are joined at the hip. Obama is a BIG supporter of BIG AGRI.
"

yep, and strip mining .

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zotz:

This sets Christianity back 500 years.
Next we'll be burning witches!

"A new poll released Thursday (Sept. 11) finds that nearly six in 10 white Southern evangelicals believe torture is justified, but their views can shift when they consider the Christian principle of the golden rule.
The poll, commissioned by Faith in Public Life and Mercer University, found that 57 percent of respondents said torture can be often or sometimes justified to gain important information from suspected terrorists. Thirty-eight percent said it was never or rarely justified."
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/

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Xenobion:

Palin balloon is deflating. It took Hurricane Ike to deflate her though :p

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JFactor:

If it was likely or at least very possible for McCain to win Washington, Oregon, New Jersey etc. like some have advocated the race would be a landslide for McCain. As we can see it's probably not going to happen.

Key states still are Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire. McCain has to win most of these to win.

My blog: http://internationalpoliticstoday.blogspot.com/

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tjampel:

New Ras data out---McCain +2
This includes the new party ID weighting.
Had the old weighting been used the candidates would have been tied or it would have been McCain +1

This looks like the bottoming of the repub bounce, at last. Look for Gallup to +1 or even in the next 2-3 days. And look for the other tracking polls to be consistently Obama +2 or +3. The real evidence will be national polls. If they start showing Obama with a small lead we'll know that everything's nearly status quo ante,

Repubs are slightly ahead of where they were, for now in a few key states, such a MN, NC, WA and NM, but the game-changing aspect of the Palin pick and "we're the real mavericks" meme is that it has forced Obama's campaign to recalibrate. I see a "change what?" attack on McCain as ultimately successful because his specific policies don't represent any change what--so ever and Palin's ideology is Bush's.
The glow is off Palin now; her policies are standard right wingnut, with attempts to moderate some of the harsher language (e.g. global warming not being caused by human endeavor)

McCain/Palin will also lose all cred if they keep pushing the Bridge to Nowhere in our faces (she was for it until it became a joke), and claiming they are the anti-earmark team, when she's held out her hand for 450 million in earmarks since taking office and been scolded by McCain himself for obtaining 17 million for Wasila (in 2001). Thinking that voters are idiots may get you a temporary advantage, but, in the end, it's not nice to give people the feeling that they've been played; and here, they clearly have.

That leaves transparency/accountability in gov't and it's Obama turf just as much as Mccain's. He's the one who reached out to repubs like Sen Coburn to get transparency laws passed. And it's McCain who's surrounded himself with Charlie Black and 158 other lobbyists. How can you be the Maverick and have big-time lobbyists heading up your campaign. How can you be taking on the oil interests when your campaign is financed by a gusher from big oil and directed by oil lobbyists?

Otherwise there's absolutely no change issue for McCain to run on

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KipTin:

Hint: OLD party ID weightings are IRRELEVANT. Rasmussen party ID weightings are based on polling data. Old ratings used last 3 months. New uses last 6 weeks.

Every day that Obama (and Obamanation) spends focusing on Palin is a "win" for McCain.

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SwingVote:

If you pick your samples randomly, why do you need weighting again? Doesn't the poll itself give party weights better than pollster's old data or opinion?

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KipTin:

Some polls use true random samplings and some include weighting. There was an article on the pros and cons of each some time ago. (Maybe one can Google it.) Anyway, the weighting is done by polling random samples.

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