IL: 2010 Senate (Rasmussen 8/11)
Emily Swanson | August 17, 2009
Rasmussen
8/11/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release)
National
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 42
Gov. Quinn: 47 / 49
Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Kirk (R): 55 / 28
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 51 / 33
Cheryle Jackson (D): 36 / 37
2010 Senate
41% Kirk, 38% Giannoulias
47% Kirk, 30% Jackson
By Emily Swanson | August 17, 2009 1:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
Maybe Illinois will actually vote for a non-corrupt candidate. Then again, it is Illinois.
Posted on August 17, 2009 2:22 PM
apparently Rasmussen doesn't now Mark Kirk's name though so...
Posted on August 17, 2009 2:23 PM
Only 56% approval in his home state? D'oh!
Posted on August 17, 2009 2:30 PM
Rasmussen has clearly jumped the shark with this one... apparently their "likely voter" model only includes Republicans...
Posted on August 17, 2009 2:51 PM
Pew, at least I think it was Pew, it was years ago did a study on why republicans do better in likely voter polling. It was found a higher percentage of gop party members vote than does the percentage of dem party members. So that is why likely voter polls tend to lean gop....this was back in 2004 or 2005 though, maybe things have changed.....
I have always been under the impression republicans do tend to vote more than Dems. Like I said though, this was years ago I read that and it could be different or the same, who knows....
Posted on August 17, 2009 3:03 PM
Just remember rasmussen just had Specter down by 12 and R2K had him up by 5, Giannoulias being down by 3 probably means Giannoulias is up by 14. In addition, its a bad sign that Kirk is under 50% against Cheryle Jackson.
Posted on August 17, 2009 4:37 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/md/maryland_senate_race-114.html#polls
Rasmussen 01/10/06 500 LV
Steele 45
Cardin 40
Posted on August 17, 2009 5:39 PM
Why are you quoting a poll from January 11 months away from an election? You know as well as anyone polls move up and down...left and right.
Posted on August 17, 2009 5:54 PM
Garbage!
Posted on August 17, 2009 6:56 PM
Republicans do tend to vote at greater frequency. Consequently, most likely voter models weight for more of them. Ras, however, has always appeared to overweight them for political reasons. The fine line is one between honest miscalculation and deliberate obfuscation. I believe it is the latter only because these guys always seem to move into valid numbers when an electoral contest is just around the corner.
Posted on August 17, 2009 8:53 PM
@ Update
They had a non-corrupt candidate. Then he went and became president.
@ Stillow
I think that was conspiracy's point. Polling 11 months out is about as useful as polling 16 months out, which is what this poll is.
Posted on August 17, 2009 9:16 PM
@ Update
They had a non-corrupt senator. He now lives in the White House.
@ Stillow
I think that was Conspiracy's point. Polling 11 months out is about as useful as polling 16 months out, which is what this is.
Posted on August 17, 2009 9:18 PM
I would be leery about reading too much into this. 15 months is a long time and the Dems will throw the entire war chest at keeping BO's Senate seat in their hands. It would be too much of a black eye to lose it.
But that will drain resources (spelled $) from some of their other candidates who might be vulnerable. Chris Dodd, Blanche Lincoln, Byron Dorgan, and the Biden seat.
If the GOP can land a good candidate, I am hearing more and more that Blanche Lincoln in AR is beatable. Come home Huckabee.
I also get the feeling that the game is already on to find a challenger for BO in 2012. The name Mike Pence keeps popping up. I saw where he was in MT today. And yesterday my teenage Libertarian son got junk mail from Pence. Now why would a congressman from IN be sending mail to conservative teenagers in AR?
Politics and the NFL. Contact sports with no real off season anymore.
Posted on August 18, 2009 12:54 AM
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