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IL: 39% Brady, 30% Quinn (PPP 8/14-15)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/14-15/10; 576 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Illinois

2010 Governor
39% Brady (R), 30% Quinn (D), 11% Whitney (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Quinn: 23 / 53

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bill Brady: 25 / 30
Rich Whitney: 5 / 13

 

Comments
melvin:

It appears Obama had more friends in the GOP,then he did in the Democratic party...Brady was one of Obama's poker buddies when Obama was a State Senator....Obama would have been in a better position if he would have came out for immigration reform,and a Public option,instead of coming out for the Mosque,what a dumb move that was,it was a very stupid move...Obama had to know by coming out in support of the Mosque it would put the Democrats in a bad position ...Obama do not think before he acts that is obvious.

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Mogando669:

lovely...a deep-blue state like IL will see a R governor and 1/3rd chance to see a R senator. MA got their first R senator in ages. VA got a full scale flip back to R. NJ got their first R governor in generations.

If these events are possible, what's impossible?

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Crimsonite:

Morgandom
You do know that NJ only had a Democratic governors for two terms in a row before Christie? Before that was republican Christie Todd Whitman for two terms. If you want to debate how conservative she was, thats fine, but she was a republican, and 8 years isn't a generation.

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melvin:

The GOP may gain in November,but they're future is dead after 2010,because they cant get Minority voters period...The Democrats is never going to lose the Whitehouse,Congress,and the Senate ever again after 2020...The GOP has lost a whole generation of Hispanics,and Asians..The GOP will have to get 2/3 of the White voters to vote for them after 2012 just to stay in the ball game with the Democrats.

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rdw4potus:

"Mogando669:

lovely...a deep-blue state like IL will see a R governor and 1/3rd chance to see a R senator. MA got their first R senator in ages. VA got a full scale flip back to R. NJ got their first R governor in generations. "

Are you kidding? Christine Todd Whitman served two terms as Governor of NJ from '94-'01. How many "Generations" have passed since 2001?

VA has several Dem US Reps and 1 Dem senator. Full flip?

Edward Brooke (R-MA) served 2 terms in the senate ending in 1979. 31 years is a long time, but it isn't ages.

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I simply don't think the polling this cycle will prove to be very accurate. There were 2 elections yesterday when voters actually voted and not simply talked to pollsters.

First, in WA, was a top 2 primary election, where Sen. Murray trounced Dino Rossi by more than 12 points, which will rise to about 16-17 points when the rest of the votes are counted, compared with pollsters who had the contest in the 3-5 point range.

Second, in a special election in a Senate district in CA that had been in Republican hands for a generation, and had seen the GOP candidate win an earlier primary election there by more than 7 points over the Democrat, the final result ended up with the Republican winning by only 4 points. Democrats turned out strongly.

So, despite the so-called "enthusiasm gap," we have two states with real voters showing up -- WA and CA -- and in both instances Democratic candidates ran significantly better than pollsters had been expecting.

How come nobody is talking about that? Easy, it doesn't fit the media "narrative," or the blogosphere hand-wringing. Those are obviously much more important than what happens when people actually vote, right?

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UpstateConservative:

@nelcon
This is the one poll I found that polled both the primary and general. Please tell us again that Patty Murray is 16-17 points ahead of Rossi in the general.
/blogs/wa_49_murray_46_rossi_ppp_7278.html

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gabe:

You missed the ball on the WA state primary Nelcon. The only reason Murray trounced Rossi in the primary was due to the fact the GOP vote was split between Rossi, Didier and Akers. If we assume all D votes went to Murray and all went to Rossi it would be dead even.

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rdw4potus:

"gabe:

You missed the ball on the WA state primary Nelcon. The only reason Murray trounced Rossi in the primary was due to the fact the GOP vote was split between Rossi, Didier and Akers. If we assume all D votes went to Murray and all went to Rossi it would be dead even."

That's true, IN THE PRIMARY. But Dems had almost no incentive to vote in the primary, while Reps had an actual primary contest to vote in.

I agree that the general will be close, but it doesn't work to just add up the non-Murray votes in the primary and call it good. There are an awful lot of Murray voters who didn't bother with the primary.

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Field Marshal:

That's true, IN THE PRIMARY. But Dems had almost no incentive to vote in the primary, while Reps had an actual primary contest to vote in.

They do have an incentive because its a top 2 primary go on to the general. Had they not voted, Murray wouldn't have been in the general election against Rossi.

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Bob in SJ:

@ FM

That's highly unlikely. Rossi's advacing with 34%, but Murray was probalby always going to beat Didier.

Regardless, major portions of King County are still outstanding. She may yet get close to 50%.

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rdw4potus:

"They do have an incentive because its a top 2 primary go on to the general. Had they not voted, Murray wouldn't have been in the general election against Rossi. "

OK, OK. She had to clear a whopping 22% to ensure 2nd place in the primary. And the base votes every time no matter what. Also, it's not too hard to return a ballot in the mail. But you're nuts if you think Murray won't pick up votes from moderates who didn't vote (or didn't vote for her) in the primary.

Really, there's somewhat of an incentive for Murray's supporters to vote for not-Rossi if they're confident enough that she'll be 1 or 2 in the primary without their votes...

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Bob in SJ:

I find it hilraious that we can't even keep on the topic of the poll at hand.

Quinn's got some work to do. If both candidates are this low, anything might happen.

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Stillow:

In the WA primary it shoudl be making you lefties very nervous that more people voted for republicans last night than did Dems. Once more polling comes out between Rossi and Murray this seat will be upgraded to a pure toss up.

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@Stillow et al: Ha! You should be the ones that are nervous over yesterday's results. I point you to the 2008 "top 2" WA primary, involving Gov. Gregoire and that same loser -- Dino Rossi. In the primary, Gregoire got 48% of the vote to Rossi's 46%. In the general, Rossi gained -- nothing!!!!! He ended up with the same 46%, but Gregoire picked up 6 points in the general. You'll find the data at vote.wa.gov. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Also, how can you explain that CA special election, which was well financed on both sides and had a huge turnout? It seems the Dems were much more enthusiastic about voting than the supposedly highly-motivated basic GOP voter. The Democratic candidate cut the primary margin almost in half. Sorry to burst another bubble for you.

Pretty soon you won't have bubbles, you'll just have air with nothing around it.

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CompCon:

The pure desperation of you dems to find a glimmer of sunshine somewhere is getting pathetic.

Do you bozos remember 2006? The dems kept saying that a big turnout of democrats in the primary was a guarantee of a big victory in november. Now that dems are being massacred in the primaries - they say they don't matter, and they even claim that dems are more enthusiastic than anti-dems.

Pathetic. Just pitifully pathetic.

I wish November would hurry up and come so you can slink away and wonder why you spent so much time trying to fool yourself. You certainly aren't fooling anyone but yourselves. This will be a year of a defeat of historic proportions for the majority party.

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AlanSnipes:

@Upstate conservative.
As a conservative you don't read well, what the poster said was that after all the votes in the primary are counted Murray could be up 16-17%.
He didn't say that there was a poll on the general election that has Murray up by that margin.
I know you are always thinking of your right wing talking points so it is difficult for you to know any facts, that why you are a conservative.

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AlanSnipes:

@Upstate conservative.
As a conservative you don't read well, what the poster said was that after all the votes in the primary are counted Murray could be up 16-17%.
He didn't say that there was a poll on the general election that has Murray up by that margin.
I know you are always thinking of your right wing talking points so it is difficult for you to know any facts, that's why you are a conservative.

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AlanSnipes:

@Upstate conservative.
As a conservative you don't read well, what the poster said was that after all the votes in the primary are counted Murray could be up 16-17%.
He didn't say that there was a poll on the general election that has Murray up by that margin.
I know you are always thinking of your right wing talking points so it is difficult for you to know any facts, that's why you are a conservative.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Compcon

Hey man, you can disagree, but calling people bozos dosen't really help.

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Fred:

@Nelcon

"in 2008"

Enough said. It's 2010. Whole different picture.

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Fred:

For those who haven't seen.....Gallup daily tracking

Obama : 41 approve 52 disapprove

dems better start jumping ship fast

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Bob in SJ:

@ Fred

His Rass numbers have actually improved 4 points since Monday. We've still got two months to the election.

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@Fred: If you lived in WA, you could make that statement. I'm not talking nationally, I'm talking this state, and CA. In these two primary voting instances, Dem enthusiasm far outdistanced Republicans.

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nick283:

Eh, nelcon, if you combine rossi, didier and akers the republicans beat murray. Yeah, I would have liked his number to be close to murray's, but not its shaping up to be a pretty close race. In 2008, dems got much more help in the general thanks to obama etc. Also, possible that the lehman bankruptcy between the primary and general was a bit of a game changer. Definitely good news from Washington is that Jaime Herrera looks like she is in a strong position to take Baird's old seat. Of course, this hispanic female republican will cause the democrats all sorts of problems.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Nelcon:

what did Murray end up getting in the final result? The conservatives will spin this any way they can even though this is positive news for Murray. I heard she was was 14-15 points head of Rossi without Seattle votes yet.

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The official link is vote.wa.gov. It currently shows a Murray lead of 12% over Rossi, with about a quarter of the vote still uncounted. More than 70% of the uncounted vote comes from counties that Murray won big, such as King County (Seattle) where she won by more than 2-1. That has by far the largest number of uncounted votes.

A good "guestimate" would be that when the final tallies are counted, probably by tomorrow, the Murray lead will grow to 15-17% and her gross vote total will go up from the current 46% to around 50%.

But check the state's website to get up-to-date results. It's very good and shows counties with uncounted ballots and when the next tally for those counties could be expected.

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Fred:

@Nelcon
Whatever the case would be, the election will be close. That we do know, unless something drastic happens between now and november. When you look at Washington's 3rd district, Republicans took 52%, dems took 44%, and the independent (a conservative) took 4% which is 56% conservative and 44% democrat. That seat could easily flip to GOP this fall.

whoever told me that ras numbers have imporoved should know that one day of skewed results can change everything. The general trend is what matters. when you look at the graph on this site, or on gallup, or on rasmussen, you can see which way the president's approval is headed. DOWN.

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Fred:

another thing... Voters did vote in congressional primaries as well, so really, there's no reason to believe that dems stayed home and will come out in November.

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Cederico:

A few corrections to earlier comment in this thread.

Illinois had GOP governors for 20 straight years (4 terms for Jim Thompsom and 1 for George Ryan) before Rod Blagojevich won in 2002. So it is actually rather unusual for a Democrat to be governor in Illinois.

As others have pointed out Christine Todd Whitman was governor in New Jersey for two terms in the 1990's (1993-2001). And before her you had Tom Kean, Sr. serve for governor from 1981-1989. The DEMS who have served as govenor recently have all been one termers---Jim Florio (89-93), McGreevey (01-04) and Corzine (05-09).

In MA, Republican Senate candidates have been competitive in some races over the last few decades. They are usually younger attractive moderates. For examples, Mitt Romney ran strongly against Ted Kennedy in 1994 (losing 58% - 42%), GOP Governor Bill Weld ran very strongly against John Kerry in 1996 (losing by about 53% - 47%). The GOP won the governors races in 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. So it is not unusual for a moderate GOPer in the Scott Brown mold to be competitive in MA.

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nick283:

this isn't great news for rossi. King County may have the most ballots left outstanding, but it has about 30% of the states population and less than 25% of the ballots outstanding according to my last look at the site anyway. The big county with a surprisingly large amount left is spokane county. Not the strongest republican county, but one where murray is under 40% and the combined republican vote is over 50%, but with counties these big its hard to tell where the oustanding vote is. Could be downtown spokane which favors murray, or king counties portion could be issaquah and sammamish which would favore rossi. So far looks like its going to be a close race with maybe a slight edge to murray.

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nick283:

Losing 58-42% (58-41) is not a strong performance. Just ask Walter Mondale.

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WA will not be a closely contested race this fall. The GOP will abandon Rossi after his very poor showing in this primary and look for better fish to fry elsewhere in the country.

Nobody can overcome a 15+ point lead against the same candidate in the general election vs. what happened in a primary like this. If Rossi couldn't match Murray vote for vote in a low turnout primary, how could he match up when the big numbers out of the western part of the state show up in the general?

He matched up nearly vote for vote against Gregoire in 2008 in the primary, only down by 2%, but then got massacred in the general, losing by 8. Now he starts from behind by FIFTEEN points? He's toast and the GOP knows it.

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Glenn Howes:

It seems as if there are 6 counties that Sen. Murray has overperformed substantially her 46% statewide value (Jefferson, King, San Juan, Thurston, Grays Harbor, and Pacific). Those counties have around 18% of their ballots out, while the state as a whole has almost 20% of its ballots out. So, it doesn't seem as if she will be nudging much upward.

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nick283:

nelcon - I dont know what you are basing this on, but Murray getting somewhere around 46% isn't exactly great when the combined republican total is 50%. It indicates a close race. Kind of like when Warren Magnuson beat Slade Gorton by about 7% in the primary in 1980 only to lose by about 10% in general. As in this race, republican candidates split the primary vote. Similar thing happened in 2000 when Gorton got more votes than Cantwell in the primary (Cantwell and Senn split the primary vote), but then lost to her in the general. Usually in Washington, the overall support for the party is a better indicator in the primary. With that said, the parties are pretty even, hence this should be a close race.

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Bob in SJ:

There's still 40% of the vote left to be counted in WA. Can we wait until all of the numbers are in?

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Farleftandproud:

What is up with third party liberals in Obama's home state? I would actually like to kick these people's you know what, way more than I would any Republican. I can sympathize with moderates, and can tolerate conservatives, but these spoilers in a year like 2010 for the Dems is ludicrous. This is Obama's home state, and he has got to make a case for Loyalty.

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Farleftandproud:

"melvin:
The GOP may gain in November,but they're future is dead after 2010,because they cant get Minority voters period...The Democrats is never going to lose the Whitehouse,Congress,and the Senate ever again after 2020...The GOP has lost a whole generation of Hispanics,and Asians..The GOP will have to get 2/3 of the White voters to vote for them after 2012 just to stay in the ball game with the Democrats."


Melvin, you may be correct about this theory but Democrats could really get slammed this year, if we can't get younger and minority voters to turnout.

I think you are right about Hispanics moving towards the Democrats, and I hope the GOP continues to push their racist angry agenda against illegals, and building mosques. They will scare all non-whites from their support.

Chris Christie, did very well among south Asian voters in NJ, and that is one reason he got elected. He stood up for the PResident, and said it might not have been a good move for the group to build a mosque on Ground zero, but it is their right.

Asians are not always a reliable liberal voting bloc, and they tend to be quite independent. I would not assume Asian voters are all Democratic leaners, but a majority of them prefer moderate candidates to liberal or extremely conservative ones. They would be likely to vote for someone like Scott Brown, but unlikely to vote for someone like Ken Buck or Rand Paul.

Few Republicans do come up to bat for them, and since Islamics are not enough of a minority group to change election results in most states, the GOP can target them year after year after year.

Hey, Bush cared so much about these "Freedom Fries and Iraqi freedom" but it is his same party that is making a stink about them having freedom to build near Ground zero.

The fear, I can understand from the 9/11 victims, but don't forget many who died in 9/11 were not US Citizens and were Nationals of other countries.

Posted on August 18, 2010 11:48 AM


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nick283:

FLAP, I don't get why the planners of this Mosque are being so stubborn. Governor Patterson has offered to help them find another place for this and they won't even meet with him. If this is about building bridges within the community then maybe it would be wise to move it. Legally they have a right to build a mosque there, but it is an ill-conceived plan. Maybe Obama should tell them they are "acting stupidly." He might be correct this time.

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Xenobion:

In WA you should be concerned for the Republicans that didn't end up voting for Rossi and ended up voting for Didier and Akers. Don't think R = Rossi. And the Dem primary was uncompetitive. Noone came out and ballots are still being counted as Washington is an absentee state.

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Glenn Howes:

Disregard my previous post. Misread the meaning of the "Estimated Ballots On Hand To Be Processed" column. Sorry for the confusion.

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