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IL: 40% Giannoulias, 39% Kirk (Rasmussen 7/7)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Rasmussen
7/7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Senate
40% Giannoulias (D), 39% Kirk (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Kirk: 39 / 48
Alexi Giannoulias: 43 / 46

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 46
Gov. Quinn: 44 / 54

 

Comments
Porchnik:

Tweak your likely voter model Scott to put Kirk in the lead or I'm canceling my ticket on that National Review booze cruise that features you as a very honored guest.

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Farleftandproud:

Rasmussen is clearly lying when Obama is at 54 percent in his home state. Based on these results, however Giannoulias is probably ahead by 5 and Obama's approval is over 60 percent.

If 2010 is a true bloodbath for the Democrats, perhaps, slim holds in WI, WA and CA plus the Dems winning in NV and IL will keep the majority. With this scenario, the GOP could have a slim majority in congress, yet the Dems would hold 53 seats. Even if there was an upset in WI or Washington, that would be 52 seats. If Crist wins, it will be more like 52 and a half seats for the Dems. Maybe Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe can trade parties.

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Paleo:

Get me smelling salts.

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Farleftandproud:

Obama should just play defense in the senate races. IL, WI, Wash and CA.

Biden can hope for a miracle in DE and campaign in PA.

In all the other states, the Democrats should stay away from Washington and make the race local. They have to educate the public what they stand for and their plan to help their states, and distance themselves from Obama's agenda, and the unemployment rate around the country.

In states where the unemployment rate is 6 or 7 percent, Dems can be more optimistic than they would be in Indiana or Michigan. I know that NH, has an unemployment rate of 6 percent which is one of the best in the country.

PA, Ohio and IN will be much harder for the Democrats to win.

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Farleftandproud:

Just like the GOP will be using unemployment and the economy against states that have Democratic incumbents for governor, I think the Democrats should also use the same attacks in states like CA where you currently have Republican Governors. This could be a strategy in Texas, CA, NJ, CT and others.

The Dems can't really use this strategy in Florida since many are sort of routing for Charlie Crist. The GOP will hold that governors seat because they aren't going to blame a governor who some of them are supporting.

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Farleftandproud:

Just like the GOP will be using unemployment and the economy against states that have Democratic incumbents for governor, I think the Democrats should also use the same attacks in states like CA where you currently have Republican Governors. This could be a strategy in Texas, CA, NJ, CT and others.

The Dems can't really use this strategy in Florida since many are sort of routing for Charlie Crist. The GOP will hold that governors seat because they aren't going to blame a governor who some of them are supporting.

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TeaPartyRules:

Hows n da world do rassmusin in the gop right wingdid racist think theys can does anything they wont with polls in dontnot have to pay the price.
everybody know minorities r been cheatdid by ras in he will be outa bisnus when he proved to be a outlair.

Sorry, I just went all Melvin for a moment. Seriously, this is only going to get worse for Il dems as the Blogo saga tapes continue to be aired.

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John Marek:

TeaPartyRules:

Your name made me vomit, and your comment would make sense if Blago was the one running for Senate.

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin campaign this year like you have never done before. We can't let the fascists back in power in congress. Just watch? They will lie to the voters and want Obama to increase our defense budget and decrease other services. We can't let them win and have to fight them.

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Farleftandproud:

"John Marek:
TeaPartyRules:

Your name made me vomit, and your comment would make sense if Blago was the one running for Senate. "

Actually I think Alvin Greene could write something better than this. The GOP plant in SC running against Jim Demint. Maybe his 10 year old son could make more sense than that.

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vincent106:

fascists? Are you kidding me? farleftandproud, you are acomplete moron.

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TeaPartyRules:

LOL. The dog returns to his vomit.

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Field Marshal:

Honestly Farleft, i think vincent is probably right in his assessment. 99% of the stuff you right is just stunningly dumb. Where is your proof Alvin Greene is a plant?

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Mike E:

The Scotty Assmussen is such a shill for the democrtas.

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dpearl:

This is a close race and all of the polls seem to follow right along the trend line - which is reasonable since they all are for LV models. I do hope Mark is right that the new owners of Pollster will be able to contribute more towards updating the charting capabilities. It would be great to be able to quickly filter LV from RV from All Adults polls.

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Farleftandproud:

I have no proof about Alvin Greene, but I can't believe he would have won since he didn't campaign much and run any ads. I don't have any proof, but I do not believe that Democrats even in a state like SC, regardless of race would have voted for him. There could have been a mishap in their voting machines or something.

Of course there are races where the opposition candidate has no chance of winning, but they at least like to run to get their ideas across, and usually smart people are nominated.

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Farleftandproud:

I know Demint would be hard to beat, but I would have expected after his horrible Waterloo comment that the Dems would have come up with a credible candidate.

I could have seen a no name candidate running against a popular Republican like Lugar or Huchinson. They are fairly rational and will likely hold their seats as long as they are in office. It is a bit pathetic that SC would have so little disrespect they would nominate a brainless idiot like Greene.

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TeaPartyRules:

"I do hope Mark is right that the new owners of Pollster will be able to contribute more towards updating the charting capabilities."

Yeah right. You do know Lisa Douglas is the new pollster owner. Oliver, Oliver.

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vincent106:

@farleft

Alvin was elected for the same reason that Obama got 90+% of the black vote and still enjoys 90+% black approval. blacks are racists.

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Farleftandproud:

Well I admit that I have some extreme views. That is an understatement. Vincent, if Greene didn't run any ads, why would blacks in SC assume he is black? In nearby Alabama, they have a bigger black base in the Democrats than they do in SC, and they nominated a white man for governor, because the African American rep had voted against health reform.

That is clearly why I smell a rat.

As for the fascist remarks, I can't say I honestly believe that most Republicans are fascist, but some clearly have been. Anyone who wants to fight wars, and sometimes wag the dog to build up to a war like Iraq, and exploit the masses by denying them health care, and throwing away the poor and homeless like garbage, I can honestly say in it's own way, is like fascism.

Besides, wasn't it the right wing tea baggers who compared Obama to hitler and had Hitler features on a picture of Obama? First of it is stupid because Obama would have never fit into Hitler's aryan ideal.

A tea party patriot compared Obama to Stalin, Pol Pot, Chairman Mao. Obama has at least tried to ban torture, repeal don't ask don't tell in the military.

"Don't ask don't tell" was a trend that the Russians and Fidel Castro had in their military. I have seen movies about how much communists oppressed gays. Many gay cubans had their lives threatened, and they ended up immigrating to America.

I guess each person will have a different opinion, but both sides have compared elected officials to foreign dictators. We are all entitled to our opinions, but until we can come together and find some common ground, nothing will improve in this country, and our Democracy will indeed go down the drain.

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TeaPartyRules:

Very true Vincent, Obama basically outed the blacks as racist. Now EVERYONE knows.

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Farleftandproud:

Sarah Palin sort of reminds me a bit of a modern day Axis Sally propogandist. She is hiding in her Alaskan Bunker, and has made few appearances and sends these crazy videos with ridiculous propoganda. She says she wants to reach moderate women? Is that moderate women, or moderately crazy women?

The more she makes an ass of herself the more it helps progressives. I think when it turns out she is going to be accused of tax evasion, I doubt anyone will want her to run for president.

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melvin:

Mark Kirk is a liar,he will not win this race in Illinois. Mark Kirk accused Giannoulias of not paying his taxes last year,but at the sametime the Gop candidate for Gov Mr Brady havnot paid his taxes in 2 years,what a hypocrite Mark Kirk is.Field Marshal what world are you living, in anybody in his right mind can see Alvin Greene is a plant from the Republican party.Why do the Democrats always cave in to pressure from Foxnews? The Gov of WV didnot have to have a special election this year,he could have waited until 2012.This Gov is going to appoint a weak candidate which means the Gop is going to pickup this seat,this gov has no attention of running for Senator,how can you find a good candidate to run in 4 months Gov? What the hell is wrong with the Democratic party.This is the 2nd time in a year the Democrats have done this.

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vincent106:

@farleft

I think some observations are better left unsaid. You are digging yourself into a hole of craziness that will be hard to dig out of.

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melvin:

Why would Blacks in Hispanics support the Republican party? Give me one reason.The Republican party havnot reached out to Blacks since the days of President Lincoln.The Republican party along with Foxnews is using race to attract White voters.For the past week all Foxnews can talk about is the Blackpanter party.

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HookedOnPolls:

Farleftandproud: "I smell a rat"

Go see an otolaryngologist*

*Ear, Nose & Throat doctor

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

Honestly Farleft, i think vincent is probably right in his assessment. 99% of the stuff you right is just stunningly dumb. Where is your proof Alvin Greene is a plant?

Sometimes logic is the only proof you have and the only one you need. It simply makes no sense that an unemployed guy currently on trial for a felony, who needed the services of a public defender is going to simultaneously plunk down 10.6k to file for the SC Senate, when he's barely literate, and the ideas he does manage to "articulate" (make little toys for me...now that's an original idea to save the economy)are not those one would expect or even imagine from someone who's managed to squirrel away his life savings and turn it over to the State of SC as a filing fee.

If none of this had taken place and you simply posited a fellow like Greene doing what he would have to have done (if he weren't a plant) you'd be called an idiot for even imagining that it could happen.

This is one of those situations where you know very well this isn't on the level and you're laughing about it to yourself and, at the same time, purporting to ask someone to prove it with a straight face. Do you really have one?

If you do what have you been smoking in those Rocky Mountains?

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Farleftandproud:


melvin:
Why would Blacks in Hispanics support the Republican party? Give me one reason.The Republican party havnot reached out to Blacks since the days of President Lincoln.

You are right Melvin. African Americans other than a small percentage of them, should not vote for a party that racism has been so accepted. I say that when I hear comments by Rush Limbaugh, and Glen Beck that would get him kicked out of many college campuses if he were a student because they are morally unacceptable.

Hispanics all over the country have to come out in huge numbers and teach the GOP a lesson.

I think the Democrat will win in IL, but I honestly think both candidates are not really all that great. Labor in Chicago will come out in big numbers.

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Farleftandproud:

I don't care if you call my comments stupid. Palin is stupid, Bachman is stupid, Limbaugh is stupid, Glen Beck is stupid, Bill O the Clown is stupid, and I rarely see them ever play video clips or quote facts that they can defend. It is just them spewing out their mouths.

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Gtfan4ever:

Melvin you can't even go a post without obsessing about race so give it a rest.

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Farleftandproud:

And don't get me wrong, I would love to see more bipartisanship. I wasn't out to get the GOP when Obama first took office; I really tried to be hopeful that there would be more bipartisanship, but instead most in the party have tried to obstruct everything Obama has done. They voted against unemployment benefits, defended big energy companies and Obama made many attempts to reach out to the GOP during the whole health care debate. The Obama I have seen since he has been elected has supported ideas that some moderate Republicans used to support.

Even Nixon wanted a coprehensive health program. The GOP has evolved into such a far right party over the past 20 years. I am not sure if Ronald Reagan would be nominated today; some of his ideas are probably to the left of Ben Nelson.

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin, I don't know what state you are from, but like me you seem to not understand the contemporary right wing logic.

You should make as many calls as you can, write letters to the editor and recruit volunteers. If you go to Obama's Organizing for America web site there is a lot you can do. I am going to host a phone bank later in the summer.

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jmartin4s:

@John Marek
great comment

In general, I think Alexi will win this race. The playing field is even and both these candidates are disliked. However, there are way more dems than reps in Il and indies will split evenly. I think Alexi will win by 3.

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Field Marshal:

tjample,

Is that like tax cuts not helping the economy? Or how about the AZ law not having anything to do with race? Common sense flew out the window long ago with many of you libs. The smoking of funny plants is usually restricted to the crazies on the left.

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Mike E:

@farleftAP

"Anyone who wants to fight wars, and sometimes wag the dog to build up to a war like Iraq, and exploit the masses by denying them health care, and throwing away the poor and homeless like garbage, I can honestly say in it's own way, is like fascism."

I honestly think that those who opposed the liberation of Iraq are profoundly evil people. Especially Obama, as a black man he should know better than to leave an oppressed people under the heal of a regime. Thats is facism. Also, trying to force Americans to give up their health care and accept a second tier medical systen run by the government is positivly Nazi, the Nationalist Socialists believed in the supremacy of the state over the freedom of the individual.

Liberals desire to take Americans guns is right out of Hitlers playbook.

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Mike E:

@Melvin.

"Why would Blacks in Hispanics support the Republican party? "

Off the top of my head, one reason is because blacks and hispanics support the traditional definition of marriage even more so than whites. Another reason is that Obama is destroying the voucher systen which is the only way many blacks and hispanics have of breaking the cycle of bad education and poverty.

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

tjample,

Is that like tax cuts not helping the economy? Or how about the AZ law not having anything to do with race? Common sense flew out the window long ago with many of you libs. The smoking of funny plants is usually restricted to the crazies on the left.

So I guess you agree with me on Mr. Greene

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Chris V.:

"Field Marshal: The smoking of funny plants is usually restricted to the crazies on the left."

Actually, from my experiences I think a lot of stoners nowadays are libertarian types.

Anyway, I rarely vote for Republicans, but I'll probably vote for Kirk. He has run a very poor campaign thus far, but I believe he would make a better Senator than Alexi. I am probably more likely to end up voting for the Green Party guy, who seems like a knowledgeable and qualified candidate, than I am for Giannoulias.

Bill Brady scares the hell out of me though, his message on social issues might work well in South Carolina or Texas but in Illinois, some of the stuff he supports (teaching creationism in public schools, overturning Roe v. Wade, etc.) will blow up in his face if he tries to implement it. I'd rather have Rich Whitney of the Green Party as Governor than Quinn but if the race is very close between Quinn and Brady I might bite the bullet and vote for Quinn.

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seg:

Giannoulias
Being a senator presents endless opportunities for corruption. How many do you think this sleazy guy will resist?

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Field Marshal:

So I guess you agree with me on Mr. Greene

No i don't. I was just merely pointing out your obvious hypocrisy once again. You CLEARLY see that Greene is a Republican plant because that's what you want to see. Its easy for you to make that conclusion rather than the obvious that minorities today are usually the racists, not whites. Secondly, I stated those other points because, while they are irrefutably true and common sense, you and most dems refuse to accept them. Its called Bayesian rigidity. But you will accept the ludicrous notion that Greene is a plant. See the hypocrisy?

Remember Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is usually the most correct one. We saw in the primaries that blacks break for Obama huge over Hillary. What's the simplest explanation in this SC primary?

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin.

"Why would Blacks in Hispanics support the Republican party? "

Off the top of my head, one reason is because blacks and hispanics support the traditional definition of marriage even more so than whites.

Obama has never said he supports gay marriage, so that is crap. Many African Americans and hispanics probably do support traditional marriage and are more likely to have pro-life leanings than liberal whites, however they see those issues for what they are, and like myself, see the bigger picture. They don't want to support the party that gives tax breaks to the rich, cuts back on health care, and has done everything in their power to hinder better race relations like haulting affirmative action.

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JPB11011:

@farleftandproud

I just need to tell you it really scares me that people interpret issues and news the way you do. I fear for our future. Our educational system obviously isn't what it used to be if people emerge from public schooling completely lacking critical thinking skills.

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

So I guess you agree with me on Mr. Greene

"No i don't. I was just merely pointing out your obvious hypocrisy once again. You CLEARLY see that Greene is a Republican plant because that's what you want to see. Its easy for you to make that conclusion rather than the obvious that minorities today are usually the racists, not whites. Secondly, I stated those other points because, while they are irrefutably true and common sense, you and most dems refuse to accept them. Its called Bayesian rigidity. But you will accept the ludicrous notion that Greene is a plant. See the hypocrisy?

Remember Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is usually the most correct one. We saw in the primaries that blacks break for Obama huge over Hillary. What's the simplest explanation in this SC primary?"

What does this have to do with minorities? Why bring that up? I referred to Greene as an unemployed guy (check my comment). I never said he was black. I wasn't making a point about black people. I could care less what his race is. If he were white or...green...I'd say the same thing. Whether or not he's a legitimate candidate says nothing whatsoever about race or racism. That you inject race into this shows your own preoccupation with that topic, not mine.

I care that his personal circumstances and the actions he's purported to have taken. They don't make any sense to me. I don't know if he's a Republican plant. I don't think this was the 100% self-funded fulfillment of a lifelong dream of his (which is his story)

If you really believe that this unemployed possible felon, who claims few financial assets (which allows him to procure the services of a public defender), plunked down all or most of his personal savings (10.5k) to run as a Dem in an un-winnable race go ahead. If you fault me for seeing this as illogical go ahead too. If you think I am using this to comment on racism you're crazy.

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Field Marshal:

tjample,

The race comes into play that you rather make outlandish claims that Greene was a Rep plant rather than the more obvious conclusion that blacks tend to vote for other blacks, something that is clearly fact and was demonstrated during the primaries in '08.

Whether or not its makes logical sense that an unemployed man with little assets paid the $10k to run is not the issue. The issue was that you jumped to the conclusion that it was a Rep party scheme and not something else, even more plausible theories because its "common sense."

I interjected that many other things are common sense, like the Bush tax cuts helping the economy or the AZ law not being racist but many on the left (i'm not saying you do) choose to ignore that common sense while accepting more outlandish theories.

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Farleftandproud:

I don't think that based on Jim Demint's views and ideas and hatred to Obama, that any African American voter would vote for the candidate who would have had that chance to defeat him. There is no way that this wasn't a huge electoral conspiracy or huge failure with their voting machines.

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

tjample,

The race comes into play that you rather make outlandish claims that Greene was a Rep plant rather than the more obvious conclusion that blacks tend to vote for other blacks, something that is clearly fact and was demonstrated during the primaries in '08.

Your posts are not responding to anything I am saying and to things I never brought up nor do I care about. Why Greene won is completely irrelevant. I didn't mention it. I could care less. Why are you obsessed with talking about black people? If Greene were white and won OR LOST and was EITHER white or black I'd reach the same conclusion. Even the winning part is irrelevant. If Greene lost I'd think he were a plant. If he got 10 votes I'd think he were a plant...all due to the circumstances under which he ran.

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