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IL: 43% Brady, 40% Quinn (Rasmussen 7/7)


Rasmussen
7/7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Governor
43% Brady (R), 40% Quinn (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Quinn: 44 / 54

Favorable / Unfavorable
Pat Quinn: 42 / 54
Bill Brady: 49 / 35

 

Comments
rdw4potus:

Wow. that's way closer than it should be. Nobody likes Pat Quinn...

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Field Marshal:

Quinn will drop off once the campaigning begins. I think this race may actually help Kirk win the senate seat in the end.

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AlanSnipes:

Brady will not win, he is a right wing extremist.
I like Pat Quinn. He became Governor at a difficult time and is not the reason our economy stinks.

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AlanSnipes:

Brady will not win, he is a right wing extremist.
I like Pat Quinn. He became Governor at a difficult time and is not the reason our economy stinks.

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Farleftandproud:

Both Democrats will win this race by about 4 or 5 points. I don't think that the polls show the true voter potential in Obama's home state. I am not sure if the momentum will be there in other states, but I predict the Chicago area will have a big turnout.

Brady is way more conservative than Kirk, and probably both will not be seen as strong candidates in the end.

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melvin:

The truth is coming out about Brady,he is just to far right to be Gov for this Blue State,the GOP might have fooled NJSY in VIR,but i doubt they is going to fool the people of Illinois.

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Chris V.:

This is an interesting race.

Of course none of the pollsters include Green Party candidate Rich Whitney when they run polls for this race, even though he won over 10% of the vote in 2006 and polled at 9% in the only 2010 poll he's been included in so far. However, Whitney will likely play a big role in this race, since most of the votes he receives will likely be from disenfranchised Democrats who are tired of the Illinois Democratic machine spitting out corrupt and incompetent candidates (Blagojevich, Giannoulias, Burris, to name a few) election after election. Quinn is actually relatively clean corruption-wise for an Illinois politician, but he has not been an effective governor thus far.

Normally a candidate like Bill Brady would have no chance in Illinois. Brady is ultra-conservative, Religious Right values Republican. When Illinois elects Republicans at the statewide level, they usually choose centrists with relatively liberal views on social issues, such as Jim Edgar, Peter Fitzgerald, Judy Baar Topinka, Corrine Wood, and George Ryan. However, since the Democrats have a lousy candidate themselves, and since they face the possibility of losing a lot of votes (likely including my own) to Rich Whitney, Brady has a good shot at getting elected. If he tries pulling anything like teaching creationism in schools or enacting restrictive abortion laws, however, he will certainly be thrown out in 2014. Republicans need votes from the suburbs to win in Illinois, and the suburban voters in Illinois are generally quite liberal on social issues.

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Farleftandproud:

"seg:
Farleftandproud:
"Bush and Cheney did a lot of things that were dictatorial. Cheney even said "you can't critisize your government during war time". If Obama said that, probably 40 million tea partiers who rally all over the country."

Actually, wasn't it Hoyer who not long ago said Tea-Partiers were "traitors" ? Pelosi said a number of ugly things about them. I don't recall TPs having a rally about either one.

Also, given that Obama has extended and in some cases augmented every national security thing liberal dems pointed at in horror, why are you not worried about "King" Obama?"


Okay, I admit that Hoyer's comment didn't make sense calling tea party people "traitors" since these people have almost always been right of ctr, and most of them are passionate for conservative causes like unregulated gun laws, tougher abortion laws or a repeal of Roe VS Wade, School Prayer, and others think the UN should be abolished as well as the IRS.

Most of these tea partiers have supported many of these causes and would probably act the same way, if any Democrat were in the white house currently.

As for Pelosi and Hoyer and other liberals being critical of the tea partiers, they most certainly have the right to speak their mind. At least left wing critics of the New Right aren't turning to the kind of violence against right wing politicians, that you saw after the signing of the health care bill, Patty Murray, Nancy Pelosi, Rep Slaughter in upstate, NY, and Bart Stupak got hate mail vandalism and death threats. It is truly unforgiveable that some from the far right have resorted to intimidation and mob rule tactics. I don't really believe that all conservatives are like that, but the more these people resort to these tactics, it will make people like myself work harder for moderate and progressive candidates this Fall to win elections vs the far right.

I feel badly for some of the more respectable conservatives who are grown up and statesmenlike including, Kaye Hutchison, Richard Lugar and Lindsay Graham. Unfortunately they haven't been the voice of the GOP as much; It has been extremists like Jim Demint and Sarah Palin who have failed to denounce violence, and when you put this all together, of course some progressive politicians are going to use the kind of rhetoric Pelosi and Hoyer would. Having death threats made against you is not to be taken lightly.

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Farleftandproud:

Il is sort of the reverse of California with Whitman the moderate, and Fiorina, a modified Sharron Angle; the candidate running for governor on the GOP in CA is quite moderate, and the one for senate is extremely conservative on issues like abortion, marjuana, and gay rights.

In IL, Kirk seems like the social moderate and Brady sounds like the Neo-con.

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seg:

Farleftandproud:
I think your concerns about Tea Party violence are completely misplaced. I suggest that you go to a meeting near you. I suspect you will find that these are overwhelmingly non-threatening, typically friendly, white middle-aged, middle-class Americans.

Unless grandmas frighten you, you should be fine.

If you are not being strident with them, I suspect you will find that few are antagonistic and most will simply try to convince you to see their point of view.

I have seen a few scenes of violence or intimidation on the Utube of Tea Party members. In every single case I am aware of, the threats and violence came from SEIU thugs trying to intimidate the Tea Partiers at Town Hall meetings of democrats.

Please don't point me to websites or other articles where others shrill about what they think may be happening. For that matter, don't take my word for it. Find it on Utube and see for yourself.

Note that you will find a few cases where MSNBC and the like carefully edited videos from Tea Party members to make it look quite different than it was. I am pretty sure you can find the uncut version of those if you keep looking.

The most infamous is the guy carrying a rifle at a meeting. MSNBC carefully cut the film to hide the fact that the guy was black and that he was not threatening at all. Now I would not want anyone at a meeting carrying a weapon, but the police were providing security, not the Tea Party.

The cases where the N-word was hurled about was claimed by a couple of democratic politicians who refused to verify if they were even present to have heard it (not too likely) or to state who told them they heard it, if they were not there personally.

Even if someone had used the N-word, so what? I can tell you from personal experience that there are trolls at political events just as trolls occassionally show up on this site.

So, do you have the intellectual honesty to try to see things with your own eyes and hear them with your own ears rather than take the word of those who have every reason to lie?

If you find that I have overlooked cases where videos disprove what I am saying, please list the link and I will be glad to view it, myself.

By the way, I will remind you that racist white MSM reporters (especially Anderson Cooper) reported numerous incidences of black violence in New Orleans after Katrina. Almost all were fantasies and rumours, mostly reported by blacks or the incredible N.O. police chief and naively believed by these so-called reporters. That reporting was a national disgrace and was a major blow for blacks and for N.O.. The theme seemed to be that these "animals" go wild immediately if not kept under control.

Racism can lurk in the hearts of self-professed liberals, sometimes to their own surprise, just as it does in some conservatives.

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Farleftandproud:

"By the way, I will remind you that racist white MSM reporters (especially Anderson Cooper) reported numerous incidences of black violence in New Orleans after Katrina. Almost all were fantasies and rumours, mostly reported by blacks or the incredible N.O. police chief and naively believed by these so-called reporters. That reporting was a national disgrace and was a major blow for blacks and for N.O.. The theme seemed to be that these "animals" go wild immediately if not kept under control. "

There you go playing the race card again. First of all violence after Hurricane Katrina was probably due to survival and finding food. Besides they had a Democratic mayor and Democratic governor at the time, and as conservatives love to say is that Democratic officials were as much to blame as the Bush administration.

The only recent left wing movement I can think of that has had as much violence and destruction as the incidents committed by SOME Tea Partiers and Anti Government radicals. I am clarifying the word "some". I am sure there are some peaceful tea partiers, and they will probably do more good for their party if they turn away from violence.

Just like the violence from the far left like the Black panthers and Bill Ayers and the weatherman in the 1970's only helped Nixon sail to re-election and Reagan's resurgance in 1980 to the presidency, I think violence in the long run will hurt the right in the long term as well.

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Farleftandproud:

I have been to town halls in NH and even in VT and seen people from the far right who asked misinformed questions. I even heard concerns about the ficticious Death panels.

I remember some that I saw on TV; there was the old lady in Maryland who asked Rep Hoyer I believe if Obama was creating a pill to shorten the lives of old people. The Democrat wised off, and said, "i have heard no such thing, and if you can write my staff to inform them of this with proof, I'll listen".

Of course there never was any proof, and it was all a myth.

Even if the tea partiers and far right people aren't violent, these statements make no sense. The government is not coming in their pink helicopters to steal people's guns.

What bothers me is how many of these people do not seem very prosperous and continue to protect the same corrupt extreme capitalist system that has contributed to their own financial messes. To paraphrase the contreversial remarks Obama said about people being obsessed with their guns and religion. Well I am all for religious freedom in this country and I am all for people who are not felons to be able to own as many guns as they want. I think what Obama and about 40 percent of America seems to notice, is that an increasing number of people voting for conservatives are not wealthy and many of them are not even the middle class. The NRA and Christian conservative groups have been messiantic in their ability to fire people up. The NRA is afraid the government is going to take away or limit their rights, and the Christian right sort of wants to pick and choose what issues they consider to be moral, and which ones should not be a huge priority.

For instance, Stupak fought hard to make sure no federal funding would go to abortion, yet he was still called a baby killer. Nevertheless, I looked a a international list of different countries and their rates of abortion, and the US was much higher than many European countries that have National healthcare, and provide better services for unmarried woman and underaged mothers facing pregnancy. Labor laws give much longer maternity leave in Britain, France and Australia, which is why I am not surprised fewer woman make that choice.

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seg:

Farleftandproud:
Katrina reporting:
"First of all violence after Hurricane Katrina was probably due to survival and finding food."

I say it was wildly exaggerated, which I believe is borne out by later, less hysterical reporting. My point is that reporting is fallible, to the say the least, and often follows a favored narrative that suits the politics and inner beliefs of the reporting organization. In this case, they let their inner racists out while trying to build a case of horror to use against Bush.

Tea party violence: First you repeat the ludricous claims of Tea Party violence, now you say you went to parties yourself and apparently escaped unscathed, other than losing verbal jousts with old ladies.

So what happened to the violence charges ? Please be honest enough to admit that they are disinformations. Your credibility will improve if you can do that.

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Bigmike:

Farleftandproud:

You seem to think that to be conservative one has to be either rich or a religious zealot. Most of us are neither.

Don't let the death panel questions bother you. Didn't you know that politics is a contact sport? It is no different than Dem's always trying to scare older voters by telling them the GOP wants to take away their social security. And that happens in most elections.

I have decided that I am proud to support your right to want Hugo Chavez as our Pres. If we just can get all of the lib candidates for office to make the same stament, there won't be any libs in office in January. Oh what a wonderful world that would be.

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Farleftandproud:

"Farleftandproud:
Katrina reporting:
"First of all violence after Hurricane Katrina was probably due to survival and finding food."

I say it was wildly exaggerated, which I believe is borne out by later, less hysterical reporting. My point is that reporting is fallible, to the say the least, and often follows a favored narrative that suits the politics and inner beliefs of the reporting organization. In this case, they let their inner racists out while trying to build a case of horror to use against Bush."

Well, the theory from some black activists like Spike Lee and Julian Bond from the NAACP was that the federal government and mostly white politicians other than Mayor Nagin, thought that failing to act in inner city New Orleans was their way of forcing blacks out of Louisiana. I think that theory is a bit far fetched, however the black population in LA has shrunk. The good news, is many African Americans fled Houson Texas and other places in the south.

As for the other comment "Bigmike:
Farleftandproud:

You seem to think that to be conservative one has to be either rich or a religious zealot. Most of us are neither.

Don't let the death panel questions bother you. Didn't you know that politics is a contact sport? It is no different than Dem's always trying to scare older voters by telling them the GOP wants to take away their social security. And that happens in most elections."

The GOP were great opportunists during the HCR. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins flirted with voting for bipartisan healthcare, but what the GOP party bosses did I think, was to convince them that HCR was going to cut into medicare. Apparently many of the costs in existing health programs are wasted money. Our health care system really fleeces people dry, and we spend 3 times more than Britain, Canada, Japan and other Universal health care nations.

As for social security, why did so many organizations fight to keep social security during the Bush years? By privatizing social security, Bush would have created more loopholes in the system. Of course the federal government can be corrupt and bureacratic, but after the way people's 401 K's went down in value in 2007-2009, and the fat cats corrupt mortgage lending policies, I would prefer my social security being monitored by the federal government.

Others like Congressman Ryan in Wisconsin, and Sharron Angle have vowed to not just privatize social security, but do away with it entirely. I hope that all the GOP candidates including Toomey, Rand Paul and others will be asked what they really want to do with social security.

It is older voters who are not thrilled with Obama and are the likely voters according to Rasmussen and so far are going 2 to 1 Republican; these older voters may have a change of heart and not want to support extreme conservative candidates who may threaten their medicare or social security.

As for the fact that I believe that the GOP has been dominated by religious Christian voters and those who don't want gun regulations, have been a dominant force in the GOP. There are parts of the US that have a lot of Country Club fiscal Republicans in wealthy areas in Southern California, and Northern NJ, but it has been the Deep South, Texas and North Florida as well as Kansas, Indiana and parts of Colorado that are ot terribly prosperous, make the family values issues the reason they remain so conservative.

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Farleftandproud:

"I have decided that I am proud to support your right to want Hugo Chavez as our Pres. If we just can get all of the lib candidates for office to make the same stament, there won't be any libs in office in January. Oh what a wonderful world that would be."

In my perfect world, I wish there was just the Green Party and the Democratic party in this country, like what you have in San Francisco, but it is America, that will never happen.

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Field Marshal:

A perfect world for far-left nutjobs maybe. THANKFULLY, that will never happen.

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Farleftandproud:

"Basing an entire group on the acts of a few of their members isn't just. It's sort of like how some people believe that violent media is responsible for serial killers and should be banned because of a few sick individuals. I have to seriously disagree with those types of views."

I can actually agree with that statement. I know that gun rights activists say it is not guns that kill, it is the people who shoot the guns who kill. There is some merit in that point, and it has gained a lot of traction in this country.

Of course censorship is wrong, and I hate it when people have wanted to censor porn or violent movies and music because it caused some weak people to kill someone, or themselves.

I sort of think that the witch hunt in Arizona on illegal Mexicans was brought into law because one psyhotic Mexican illegal alien killed a rancher in Arizona. I feel badly for that family, but to enact a law caused by one illegal was one of the major reasons I despise their law.

There have been serial killers and other mass murderers who are white who have killed ranchers out west.

In my mind, the Governor enacting a law based on a few violent Mexicans would be very similar to a liberal New York Governor, passing tougher gun laws because of a shooting.

Righties hate it when liberals stereotype gun owners as violent, the same things goes with racial profiling.

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