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Illinois Primary Charts

Topics: Charts , Illinois , Primary elections

Primary season is heating up, beginning with Illinois next Tuesday. We have charts up for their Senate and Gubernatorial primaries:

Senate: Democratic, Republican
Governor: Democratic, Republican


Our trend estimates still give Governor Pat Quinn a narrow lead in his Democratic primary race against Dan Hynes, but the two most recent polls (by Rasmussen and PPP, respectively) have given Hynes a narrow lead. Another poll by the Chicago Tribune showed Hynes only four precentage points behind. Hynes appears to be gaining strength, making this race a toss-up.

The Republican primary for governor is a messy, multi-way race - our trend estimate shows Andy McKenna in the lead, but with less than 20% support. Jim Ryan and Kirk Dillard are close behind in our estimate, and each has polled close to or ahead of McKenna in recent surveys.

In the Senate race, Mark Kirk looks set to cruise to victory in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Alexi Giannoulias has held a lead in all of the primary polls to date, although given the vagaries of primary polling either Cheryle Jackson or David Hoffman could have enough support to pull off an upset in their three-way race.

Note: The trend lines in these charts are linear rather than curved because the more sensitive curved trend line is too easily fooled by noise and house effects when the number of polls is small. We currently plot just 6-7 polls released so far in each Illinois race.

 

Comments
BruceP:

A trend analysis is going to overweight early polls' predictive significance. I guarantee you almost no one in Illinois was paying attention to this election until the last couple weeks. I voted this morning in the Chicago suburbs, but only made up my mind on the gubernatorial and senate races yesterday.

I'd like to see your analysis of the different polling houses' likely voter models, because, if my precinct is any inedication, turnout is so low as to be almost nonexistent.

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