Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

IN: 2010 Sen (Kos 2/8-10)

Topics: poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
2/8-10/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Indiana

Favorable / Unfavorable
Evan Bayh: 61 / 33
John Hostettler: 40 / 33
Dan Coats: 38 / 34
Mitch Daniels: 56 / 34
Dick Lugar: 64 / 29
Barack Obama: 46 / 49

2010 Senate
53% Bayh (D), 37% Hostettler (R)
55% Bayh (D), 35% Dan Coats (R)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

This poll is encouraging. Perhaps reconciliation would be the best idea for health reform. Bayh may want to vote for it and take the risk. Dems still need 51 votes but I think they can get more than that. The deal making and the fear of fillibustering was the wrong approach for Harry Reid.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Coats is relatively unknown statewide. Without Pence running, the Dems definitely have a shot but i think its a long one. Ras had Bayh up by 3 over Hoetettler and didnt even poll Coats at the time.

____________________

Xenobion:

Coats ran against Bayh before, the state knows this guy and he's chickened out against him 2 times now. Coats is by far weak against Bayh and has so much baggage that Bayh is airing out for him like being registered in VA and living in 2 other states. Good luck coats. At least Hillary lived in NY when she ran.

____________________

LordMike:

I thought Coats was a household name in IN. That people had pictures of him on their walls at home? That's what all the right wingers were saying, anyways....

____________________

Ryan:

Coats is well known, he was the Senator from Indiana for 8 years. Being in Bloomington, many of the younger voters down here don't know him, but most others do. Also, he never ran against Bayh, he didn't go back up for re-relection in 98.

With that said, Bayh is pretty darn popular around here, and FL&P, if he wants to actually represent his constituents, he'll not vote for a healthcare bill. Even here in Bloomington, which is about as liberal as you get in Indiana, it's not very popular.

____________________

GARY WAGNER:

I'm a native born and raised hoosier. Bayh isn't even on the radar yet. It's not that he is wildly popular here - it's that he is almost invisible. It would be interesting to take a poll of hoosiers who even know that he is a democrat and that he voted for both the stimulus and healthcare bills.

It will still be tough beating Bayh this year but the more he can be tied to Obama, the harder it will be for him. Why do you think that he started backpedalling within hours of Scott Brown's election. You also have to remember that this is a Daily Kos poll which means that they are making it look much better for Bayh than in really is.

Also, pay attention to the Daniels (Governor) and Lugar (Senator) approvals. If they go out there and push for Coats it will carry a lot of weight. Especially if Daniels reminds people that he is still cleaning up the mess Bayh left behind when he was Governor.

Farleft: Bayh voting for the healthcare bill again would guarantee his defeat. Up here in Northern Indiana, you would have people lined up around the block waiting to vote against him if he did that.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"Even here in Bloomington, which is about as liberal as you get in Indiana, it's not very popular."

Probably because Indiana already has a better health care plan than much of the nation, paid for by cigarette taxes and federal funds.

____________________

BH:

I have no doubt that Bayh leads this race. I gave great doubt that any KOS sponsored Research 2000 poll reflects true reality on the ground...particularly in IN.

Bayh +6 - +10 is more reasonable.

____________________

Jason:

Bayh will easily defeat Dan Coats in this race! Coats is known by many people in the Hoosier state. I know I have lived in this state for 23 years. Coats was our Senator for 10 years. He was popular when he was in, but not so much now. Many people view him as a carpetbagger. He has not lived in the Hoosier state for a decade and now he has come back because he wants his seat back. Think again, it won't happen!

____________________

Xenobion:

When I say Coats chickened out against Bayh I mean that he's been thinking of running against him for the past 2 election cycles. He's declined and now he's running despite he's practically retired. Coats will be painted bad very early IMO.

____________________

GARY WAGNER:

CQPolitics just moved the Bayh senate race out of "Safe Democratic" to "Leans Democratic". They base that on real polls - not Daily Kos fairy tales.

I base my opinion on living in Indiana for 53 years. Obama might have won 49% of the vote here in 2008 but he wouldn't manange much above 42% right now. Bayh is only polling at about 45% in most of the real polls. Granted, Coats is only polling at about 35% but Bayh has already lost 20% of his vote into the undecided column. He has to win back a lot of people to get reelected and if he doesn't distance himself from Obama he won't be able to do it.

Something else that might come out is what I'm calling the "Bayh Buyout". It's like the Cornhusker Hustle and the Lousiana Purchase. Bayh's vote for Healthcare was bought with a promise of tax cuts targetted at Indiana medical device manufacturers. The other states didn't get that sweet deal - just Indiana. He sold his vote just like Nelson and Landrieu.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"The other states didn't get that sweet deal - just Indiana. He sold his vote just like Nelson and Landrieu."

You act as if political kickbacks are a new phenomenon. It's just that it got reported regarding the health care bill.

Need I mention the military contractors headquartered in Texas that profited mightily from the Iraq War? Halliburton is one.

____________________

GARY WAGNER:

"You act as if political kickbacks are a new phenomenon."

The demodcrats were swept into office in 2006 promising to change all of that and end "The Culture of Corruption". Then Obama was swept into office promising that he would make sure congress didn't conduct "business as usual". The only change is that it got worse and the only hope is that they will get thrown out.

If you didn't like the Haliburton deals then why do you excuse these deals as just business as usual. Don't you want things to be better now than under Bush? I thought people wanted things changed. How is anything going to change if people excuse their party for doing things that they previously condemned the other party for?

When we are looking at trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see we should be looking to see how much padding is put into government spending just to buy votes. How much do these special deals cost us?

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"I thought people wanted things changed. "

They do. And yes I was disappointed in those special deals that Nelson and Landrieu brokered, but it's not something that particularly surprised me. The system encourages representatives to bring back maximum reward for their constituents. If it didn't help them get elected, politicians wouldn't do it.

It's a reason I don't like so called "moderate" politicians - especially senators. Since I've watched politics, being moderate just means that the particular politician is more self-serving and less committed to any convictions, beliefs or ideologies, and thus their vote is worth a premium because it can be courted by either side. Therefore I respect people like Sanders, Feingold, Inhofe, or DeMint. They believe in something. I can't stand people like Nelson, Lieberman, Snowe, or McCain that blow the way the wind is blowing.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Bayh is insane for stepping down. I think his wife who works in the health care industry threatened divorce if he ran for a new term. I don't know how he can live with himself by stepping down. It is truly appauling, he is going to give the GOP a new seat because of his own likely selfish interests.

____________________

GARY WAGNER:

Bayh can read the writing on the wall. This is going to be the worst year for Democrat incumbents in a long time.

He isn't exactly squeaky clean, either. He was going to take a pounding for his wife being paid $2.1 million between 2006 and 2008 for sitting on the board of health insurance companies.

He was also going to take a pounding for 85% of his campaign cash coming from out-of-state and that the two companies that would benefit the most from the deal he made with Harry Reid to sell his vote on healthcare are also two of his biggest contributors - through their PAC's.

Then there was his vote for the healthcare bill and the stimulus bill. Hoosiers aren't going to easily forgive anyone for those votes.

It's always better to quit than wait to be fired.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR