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IN: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 2/16-17)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
2/16-17/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
48% Coats (R). 32% Hill (D)
49% Hostettler (R), 31% Hill (D)
41% Stutzman (R), 33% Hill (D)
46% Coats (R), 32% Ellsworth (D)
46% Hostettler (R), 27% Ellsworth (D)
40% Stutzman (R), 30% Ellsworth (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Coats: 54 / 27
Baron Hill: 39 / 35
Marlin Stutzman: 35 / 25
John Hostettler: 48 / 22
Brad Ellsworth: 35 / 29

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 44 / 54
Gov. Daniels: 70 / 27

 

Comments
Xenobion:

Hill and Ellsworth huh? 2 Blue Dog Democrats and apparently I'm reading Ellsworth was voted The Hill's most beautiful politican lol. I guess it worked for Scott Brown.

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djneedle83:

The game with Ellsworth is 14 points to a candidate who lives in Virgnia (Coats). This race should be close since the Dem candidate will be fairly conservative--

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Stillow:

Sorry guys, this one won't be close. Won't matter who the GOP nominee is, he will win by 10 or more.

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Stillow:

The lap dogs will be purged from red states. Dorgan, Bayh, Lincoln, these are just the bginning of whats to come for lap dog democrats in red states.

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Bigmike:

No D is getting more than 33%. The top two R's are getting at least 46%. I don't see how this could be viewed as a close race. The networks will be calling this for the R candidate, whoever it is, right after the polls close.

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Xenobion:

None of the Dems even are running yet. 30+ for non-runners is always a good sign. I mean that's what Coats had 2 weeks ago as a running candidate. Things can change quickly.

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Stillow:

X - Hmmm, so then your saying its good for non candidates like palin to be polling at 42 in some polls against Obama? Or Huckabee up around 47-48 again O? Hmmm.

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Bigmike:

Admittedly one poll does not a trend make. But I believe this is the first I have seen since Bayh saw the writing on the wall.

As far as I know Bayh was the most popular D in the state plus he had the usual incumbents advantage. If he didn't have a chance who does?

Do incumbents have an advantage this year? I am thinking that few really do. There have been a slew of polls showing vulnerable incumbents on both sides. Are we finally going to get around to cleaning house?

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Xenobion:

What I'm saying is there is an unknown factor present in polls like this. We see it all the time. Coats has gotten a lot of exposure in 2 weeks and has run for a state office and thus has less missing "favorability" versus a local state rep/senator that has a much larger gap of missing favorability. This goes for the other republicans that have huge undecideds like Hostettler as well.

As for Palin and Huckabee they've been overexposed and will probably not edge anymore than they currently are at. Their favorabile missing/undecideds are very low because of this.

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Ryan:

Bayh had more than a chance, he would have been re-elected handidly, if not easily. Even though he was an incumbant, Bayh was very popular here in Indiana, as are Lugar and Daniels.

I don't know much about Ellsworth, so I can't speak for him, but Hill is the rep for my congressional district and people are not happy with him, even though the biggest population in the district is Bloomington, which is very liberal. If Hill is the choice, the republican will be able to waltz into the senate.

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Field Marshal:

This race is over. People who think otherwise are just deluding themselves.

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LordMike:

Ellsworth will be the choice. Hill is the much better Dem of the two, but since Bayh is essentially handpicking the candidate, it will be Ellsworth or maybe some outsider. Whoever it is will not be much of a Democrat and will get little base support. Since Ellsworth is relatively new, he can still run as an outsider, and has that county sheriff thing going. He's also good looking, which helps immensely in this day and age. He can be a reverse Scott Brown if he works the state.

Some points: Ellwsorth is still unknown by close to half of the state according to this poll. Coats is known to everyone, yet he doesn't even break 50%.

And for Stillow who is celebrating the touchdown on the 20 yard line... Obama's numbers looked like this against McCain in
Indiana around this time 2 years ago as well. Ellsworth won the bloody 8th. He can win the state, too. I wouldn't count your chickens!

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CHRIS MERKEY:

ellsworth is a former cop too that counts for something plus he won in a fairly conservative district for us rep

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Xenobion:

Looks like Ellsworth is being tapped to run from the state party. We shall see I guess. But man they make Dems conservative there. Pro-Life, Anti-stem cell research types.

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Farleftandproud:

Bayh is an idiot. He'll go down in history as the most disloyal US Senator ever.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@BigMike: "As far as I know Bayh was the most popular D in the state plus he had the usual incumbents advantage. If he didn't have a chance who does?"

Bayh did "have a chance", actually, and more than that - he was the clear favourite. That's one of the reasons why there's so much disgruntlement at the moment among Democrats - Bayh was really the only Democrat who could win this race, and instead he's decided to run away (after twelve years of not doing a great deal in the Senate).

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Farleftandproud:

I have more disdain towards Bayh than I do Lieberman. To leave his party out on a limb like that without finding a good candidate was ridiculous. I want John Cougar Mellencamp to run. He may not win, but I am sure he'll make some great points and can connect with the voters better than people like Bayh, Dan Quayle, Mike Pence and other corporate Washington politicians from INdiana have. Someone has to change the political culture out there, if Bayh is the best you can come up with.

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Bigmike:

Cyril Washbrook

The polls I recall seeing were within MOE. It looked to be a fight thru to Nov. I don't know if Bayh didn't want to wage a tough battle, thought he was gonna get beat, or if he was just ready to go.

Most life long politicians don't walk away, they either get voted out or stay way too long. I don't know as much about Bayh as some do, but it is hard to imagine him, or any political insider, taking a hike if they thought they had a chance to win another election. Especially Senators. They tend to have huge egos.

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Field Marshal:

Man, you libs turn on your best politicians on a dime if they don't tow the party line like good robots, eh?

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Cyril Washbrook:

@Bigmike: Rasmussen, with its very tight likely-voter screen, had Bayh ahead by a few points. R2000, with its less-strict likely-voter screen, had Bayh ahead by 20 points. We would have needed more polling to get an accurate picture, but the general conclusion was that Bayh was the firm favourite, especially when Pence decided not to run.

Either way, you've conceded the point. You initially claimed that "[Bayh] didn't have a chance" and that he "saw the writing on the wall". You clearly don't have a leg to stand on as far as those claims are concerned, no matter which poll results you choose to cite.

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GARY WAGNER:

I finally agree with FarLeftandProud on something. I want John Cougar Mellencamp to run too. Since a D on the ticket doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell in Indiana this year, it would turn this election into a farce and make fools out of the democrats that put him on the ticket.

There are only 4 very small geographic areas in this state that pushed Obama up to 49% in 2008 - a margin of only 26,000 votes state wide. The other 95% of the state is pissed and will come out in force to vote against the democrats. The senate seat is a lost cause and it will take everything they've got to hold the democrat congressionial seats. Donnelly, my congressman, is already in deep trouble polling at 38% against any unnamed republican candidate.

Running Mellencamp brings back the rock-star label that haunted Obama during the campaign. He'll draw a crowd and could pull in a lot of money but this is Indiana - not California. We don't buy into the rock-star mentality.

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Xenobion:

I didn't have a problem with Bayh I don't know what you're talking about Stillow.

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DFW freethinker:

The Democrats are going to get a rock solid spanking this year. Indiana just became part of the spanking when Bayh decided to leave. The people are speaking and the Democrats thought they could turn a deaf ear, just like the Republicans did in 2006 and 2008. Apparently they are about to find out what 1994 felt like all over again.

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Farleftandproud:

The GOP is going to self destruct with all their violent language; joking about hanging Patty Murray was about as sick as you could get. John Birch Society was at the CPAC meeting (The recent conservative conference) Another guy who is running as a Republican in the Indiana race, talked about "I want to start cleaning my gun for the big event". If I don't see some new faces in Congress. I heard some of their words at this conference and they are horrifying. The GOP radicals and more and more some mainstreamers are associating themselves with these people. I think more people need to stand up against violent rhetoric. This is not cool and for the record, progressives have their moments where they want to lash out at conservatives. Progressives are too rational, and conservatives are too emotional, yet they clearly will say things that are not true, and will call Obama a "Communist" and the masses are buying it. Another guy named Adolf Hitler was great at using lies and exaggerations about segments of the population and look at all the people who believed it.

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Farleftandproud:

In Response to Field Marshall, about not towing the party line I welcome moderate Democrats who are sometimes socially conservative and don't agree with the progressive platform. I like Bob Casey so far as a senator from PA, because he is pro-labor and has been embracing health care reform, yet he has pro-life concerns. I respect that. I understand that my party will have regional differences. In fact, Bayh I thought was a senator I really liked and he would have been re-elected had he stayed on. I am not upset with him for not being a liberal, but I am upset with him for deciding to step down at such a crucial time. He was still a member of the Democratic party and was even considered by Obama for a VP nomination. I think there was something he was hiding. I don't believe he just decided to step down because he was tired of partisanship. He is not a team player.

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