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IN: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/13-14)

Topics: Indiana , Poll

Rasmussen
4/13-14/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
54% Coats (R), 33% Ellsworth (D)
50% Hostettler (R), 33% Ellsworth (D)
41% Stutzman (R), 36% Ellsworth (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Coats: 61 / 21
John Hostettler: 47 / 30
Brad Ellsworth: 40 / 37
Marlin Stutzman: 37 / 30

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 60
Gov. Daniels: 60 / 38

 

Comments
Stillow:

I don't think O wil be carrying IN again....these red states who had Bush fatigue syndrome aren't enjoying the alternative very much.

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Farleftandproud:

Shame on Evan Bayh. In my book he was worse than Lieberman to leave his party high and dry in a year that will not be good for Democrats in a state like Indiana.

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Farleftandproud:

Obama won't carry Indiana again. It was probably the state where more traditionally Republican voters went for him than any other state. That is my take on Indiana. NC and Virginia in contrast tended to have greater turnout from minority groups, plus the demographics are changing rapidly.

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Field Marshal:

Where does Bayh get off putting his family, personal beliefs, and constituents above the Party? I mean really!

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jmartin4s:

According to the IN exit polls Obama and McCain got roughly the same levels of support within their own party and around the same level of crossover support. What gave Obama a victory in Indiana (by only 1 point) was an 11 point advantage among independent voters, which he will not get in 2012 regardless of whether he wins re-election. Thus it is unlikely he will carry Indiana a second time. Baron Hill, however, does still have a path to victory among independents to win the governor's mansion.

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Farleftandproud:

He'll make more money anyhow as a tycoon with Wellpoint. Thankfully, HCR will make people like his wife who jacks up premiums for unexplained reasons. I am still convinced his wife's ties to big insurance, ripping people off and raising their premiums in tough economic times was turning many of his friends in the party against him. It sounds like INdiana and Arkansas love these politicians who can get bought by the large corporations. Good riddance Sen. Bayh.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"What gave Obama a victory in Indiana (by only 1 point) was an 11 point advantage among independent voters,"

I disagree that this was the crucial factor. Youth vote in Indiana was 19% of the electorate, and they broke for Obama 63-35. White youth were 16 of that 19% and they broke 57-41. Nationally white youth were only 11% of the electorate and they broke 56-44. Obama turned out "his" youth voters to a high degree in Indiana, and I think there they made the difference.

Other states they padded his vote but were not crucial.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Regarding independents, they were 29% of the national electorate, but only 24% in Indiana, so I don't see them as the crucial factor there. The margin was 8 points nationally compared to 11 points in IN, but the lower turnout would have negated that margin advantage.

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GARY WAGNER:

Obama actually received less than 50% of the vote here. That's why his approval is below 40% now. It is back to hoosier normal for democrats.

Bayh doesn't need this when his wife has already collected $4 million from health insurance companies while he was senator. I'm sure they owe her million more for favors he did for them.

five-thirty-eight gives whatever republican runs for senator an 81% chance of taking this seat back from the democrats. I think three democrat congressional seats will also change from democrat to republican. Looks like the republicans are also going to take back the state house. This will be one very solid red state after November.

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Xenobion:

I'm sorry but Coats is toast after some basic smear against the guy. Is he even a resident of the state yet?

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jmartin4s:

Indiana will elect Dan Coats by Ellsworth by a 54% to 46% margin and will probably vote for either the GOP nominee (unless its Palin) by a 52% to 47% margin in 2012. However, if Baron Hill survives re-election, I think he will probably be elected governor in 2012.

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GARY WAGNER:

@Xenobion:
Is that why Coats currently has a 61% approval? It actually doesn't even matter if Coats wins the primary or not. The best he can do right now is 36% - and that is against a totally unknown candidate. He would only pull in 36% against a dead toad as long as that dead toad didn't have a (D) by his name.

Indiana isn't voting for a senator this year. They are voting against democrats.

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Xenobion:

Since this is the year of buyers remorse, I hope Indiana doesn't end up returning the dress for another flop.

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Packeryman:

Don't go the Republican route of Texas. We are about to have a third term Republican governor, Rick Perry. What a phony, the guy makes great photo opts, wants to secede from the union, refuses money for unemployment(showtime for the right wing nuts) then has to go begging for money, makes deal with lobbyists from big pharma, supports building the Trans American Highway(Part of the North American Union).He will pass any law that benefits corporate or the religious right(his base). We now have torte reform limiting $250,000 on malpractice cases, Did insurance rates come down? NO. Now the right wing Republican boards controlled by the religious right wants to rewrite history in the textbooks. They want to remove all history of the labor movement, civil rights movements and claim life began 5000yrs ago on earth. These right wing people are insane. Don't let your state be taken over by the reactionary political ideology that has created obstructionists and the party of NO. The Republican party has nothing to offer middle America. Yea, deregulation so corporate can rape and pillage you, cut taxes on the wealthy, move all manufacturing jobs off shore, let the infrastructure crumble, let banks run wild and involve us in useless costly wars and Occupations.Get a life and get away from the GOP. As the demographics of the country change they will go the way of the Whigs.

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