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IN: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 6/2-3)

Topics: Indiana , poll

Rasmussen
6/2-3/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
47% Coats (R), 33% Ellsworth (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Coats: 56 / 25
Brad Ellsworth: 37 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 58
Gov. Daniels: 58 / 38

 

Comments
CHRIS MERKEY:

Ellsworth can do this. It's kind of funny that Ellsworth is doing almost as well as Sestak in PA. I would say Sestak and Toomey are dead even right now but Sestak will break away once Toomey's ideology is exposed.

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Field Marshal:

This race won't even be close in the end, IMO.

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Xenobion:

Coats isn't even registered in Indiana. The guy has so much baggage than Ellsworth, who represents a CVI R+2 district can make easy prey out of Coats if he gets the money.

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Farleftandproud:

I agree with Field Marshall. Bayh may be the last electable Democratic senator in a generation. I still think Bayh was paid to step down this year. He would have won easily had he run for re-election.

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tjampel:

Ras has this 5 points closer than it was 7 weeks ago. Also Ellsworth (no liberal, that's for sure...center left all the way) isn't known by a 1/3 of the electorate yet. This race might get down to high single digits and make Coats sweat a little.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

I think Ellsworth is the better candidate with no baggage compared to COats. However, He is fighting a Republican advantage in this state. I thought he won a district that was R +6. I would think his district would vote for him pretty heavily too.

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melvin:

Indiana is not going to be a good State for the Democrats to win in 2010 or 2012,because this State is so full of right-wing people,the only reason Obama won there was because of the hudge turn out in the Northwest part of the State.I just dont see that happening again in 2010 or 2012

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Farleftandproud:

Has Evan Bayh endorsed Coats yet? He might as well. I am sure his wife is.

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MikeyA:

Coats is going to walk away with this one barring no major misstep.

He's at a 56% approval, polling close to 50%.

With numbers like that Ellsworth would have to get his approval into the 60+ in order to pull this one out.

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tjampel:

Every step for Coats is a misstep in a sense, because he a high powered lobbyist. I know some of you here might be more disposed to vote for such a creature. The more people in IN know this...the more they know that Coats hasn't even lived in IN for years and isn't registered to vote there--- well....it will bring down his numbers.

And as for Ellsworth we need to see what if any upside he can muster with the remaining electorate who doesn't yet know him. He's not a radical; we'll how much of that bland kind of Bayh charm he can bring to bear. He's managed to win Republican District in the House. I assume that's for a better reason than the fact that his opponents are all 2nd tier.

OK...sure, Coats will almost certainly win but I want this and all other races to be as close as possible. In a year where there's a near-perfect storm against Dems this kind of narrative (in any state...KY is another great example) can develop momentum of its own when races, expected to be walkovers for Repubs, start to tighten. As a a Dem, that's what I'm looking for.

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This race is still likely to go to the GOP, but there is some encouraging signs for Ellsworth. Even though it may be by very small increments the differential between the 2 candidates has been going down steadily (R+21 (4/14)...R+16 (4/24)...R+15 (5/6)...R+14 (6/3)) and Ellsworth still seems unknown by almost 1/3 of the electorate which bodes well for him (there's room to improve!) Also, Coats is now under 50, and his favorables have been slipping. It will definitely be an uphill battle, but if the GOP doesn't find a way to make its candidate more attractive, this race could be competitive.

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This race is still likely to go to the GOP, but there is some encouraging signs for Ellsworth. Even though it may be by very small increments the differential between the 2 candidates has been going down steadily (R+21 (4/14)...R+16 (4/24)...R+15 (5/6)...R+14 (6/3)) and Ellsworth still seems unknown by almost 1/3 of the electorate which bodes well for him (there's room to improve!) Also, Coats is now under 50, and his favorables have been slipping. It will definitely be an uphill battle, but if the GOP doesn't find a way to make its candidate more attractive, this race could be competitive.

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me.yahoo.com/a/EbHBJb0LuIWl8S9iAOOrZ3ApsKnxNmBt5e0-:

Ellsworth will make a strong charge by the time November rolls around. Coats has not lived in Indiana for years and will not win because he is looked at as an outsider this time around.

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me.yahoo.com/a/EbHBJb0LuIWl8S9iAOOrZ3ApsKnxNmBt5e0-:

Ellsworth will make a strong charge by the time November rolls around. Coats has not lived in Indiana for years and will not win because he is looked at as an outsider this time around.

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