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IN: 51% Coats, 30% Ellsworth (Rasmussen 7/7-8)

Topics: Indiana , poll

Rasmussen
7/7-8/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
51% Coats (R), 30% Ellsworth (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Coats: 60 / 22
Brad Ellsworth: 42 / 29

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 56
Gov. Daniels: 66 / 31

 

Comments
Jdcopyboy:

Coats is ahead as expected, but these aren't exactly glowing numbers, given it's Rasmussen. Ellsworth still has a hill to climb either way.

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schakj:

Does Rasmussen poll cell phones at all? If not, I could find some pretty decent ways of correcting their numbers.

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seg:

My prediction is that this race will tighten dramatically over time. Coats will win by only 18%. This will represent a moral victory for democrats.

It will be very similar to a basketball game where my team is losing by 20 pts at the half but roars back to lose by only 15-18. We won the second half!

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Farleftandproud:

I forgot to do my predictions for Indiana. Personally; Bayh was a bit of a coward I think. Would have he had a tough race? Absolutely. Could have he lost? Definetely, however he did have pretty good favorables and unlike Byron Dorgan, conceding to Hoeven, I don't see Coats as the strongest of candidates. I actually was surprised Hostetler didn't win; I saw the debates on Cspan, and Hostettler had some charisma, but Coats was more boring of a speaker than Chuck Grassley (In my book, that is pretty boring)

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Farleftandproud:

It was shocking that Obama won this state. Unlike many of the southern states, or Missouri, Indiana truly is a Republican dominated state; almost as conservative as Kansas. It is interesting that they can still have a high approval of their governor despite such a high unemployment rate. That is loyalty for you.

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rdw4potus:

"My prediction is that this race will tighten dramatically over time. Coats will win by only 18%. This will represent a moral victory for democrats. "


He's only up 21% now, with 19% undecided. Watching paint dry would be more dramatic than a 3 point tightening in this race.

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Farleftandproud:

Well at least Coats isn't Sharron Angle. He may be conservative but I think he is a sane person.

A little spoiler for you....Rasmussen has the Dems behind by 6 on the generic.

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Field Marshal:

I believe seg was being facetious.

I think Coats win this by a dozen or more, fairly easily. I can't see the DNC wasting any money on Ellsworth in IN, not when there are so many other closer contests.

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StatyPolly:

Gallup has D+1

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StatyPolly:

So, your predictions are holding up pretty well so far, Farleft. On generic, you only missed Gallup by a letter (D instead of R) and for Rass you had the 6 right, but upside down.

Keep this accuracy up, and you can end up as famous as that clairvoyant German octopus.

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Farleftandproud:

I am usually not the most optimistic person. I think this will not be a cheerful year for the Democrats, but I think we'll keep the house and senate. It will be close.

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lat:

Ok... Now for Michelle Bachmann's latest lunacy "Obama is turning us into a nation of slaves". Wow! Could The GOP really be this dumb? This is almost as good as Sharron (I was Eva Braun in my past life) Angle's statement the other day about how a teenage girl who gets raped by her father should "make lemonade out of lemons", but not quite.

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StatyPolly:

The Senate should be plenty safe for Dems, unless generic deteriorates further significantly. Right now, I'd say GOP has only about 5% chance.

Different story for 2012 though. Dems will be defending 24 seats, while Repubs only 10. Assuming no deaths or retirements. Unless BO wins reelection (or another Dem candidate) by at least 4-5% popular vote, I think GOP will take the Senate then.

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StatyPolly:

What exactly is wrong with Angle's position on abortion? The fetus is either a human being or it isn't. Doesn't matter who the daddy is.

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vincent106:

I for one am glad a politician has finally stood up for life. Its refreshing to see the issue from the standpoint of the unborn child. Murder of the innocent is never acceptable. Why should it be in the womb under any circumstances let alone under condition of rape? I still understand the need to keep the option open for those raped but Ive still never seen one viable rationale for allowing people to murder their child simply because they do not want them.

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Farleftandproud:

It was out of line what Angle said about abortion not being allowed in cases of rape. That is exactly the reason why I support my pro-choice stand. Too many politicans from the far right don't clarify under what conditions could an abortion be performed.

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Field Marshal:

Why is it out of line? Its just her opinion.

So farleft, you would support a law that outlawed abortion except in cases of rape?

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Farleftandproud:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I support Roe Vs Wade, and think the law should stand as law of the land. Scott Brown stated that in his debate last January, so it isn't just liberals who share my view.

That isn't to say I agree with many femminists who will not support a candidate who isn't pro-choice. Based on most polls I have seen, that 2/3 of Americans do not want to overturn Roe Vs wade but an increasing number of people think abortion should be legal under certain circumstances. I would most likely take the position of the moderates on this issue.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Ayotte in NH and Rossi in Wa, are dodging their stands on this issue, and both WA and NH, are states where those who support Roe Vs wade outnumber those who don't. NH is more of a fiscally conservative state. I read some transcripts where they dodged the question, and sounded somewhat anti- choice, but have been nervous to take a stand.

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Xenobion:

I expect this race to be much tighter than what Rasmussen projects. Dan Coats is the Washington Establishment and not even a resident of the state. I don't know how kindly Indianans take to people who take up shop in Washington an as Germany's Ambassador.

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SC Guy:

I think that this race will be extremely difficult for the Dems to win, especially considering the GOP has fielded a very high profile candidate. While Obama won Indiana by a razor thin margin, he's now unpopular there and his healthcare plan and immigration stances run strongly counter to Hoosier popular opinion. I would say that the GOP has a 90% or more chance of taking this seat that it really should have taken long ago.

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Farleftandproud:

And Evan Bayh's wife's insurance company can continue to get rich.

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Farleftandproud:

43-56 isn't great for Obama, but for a Rasmussen poll, that isn't that bad for Obama.

I think in MOntana Obama's approval is about 35 percent. If there is one state in 2010 that the two senators and Democratic governor are happy are not up for re-election, it is Montana.

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GoTo123:

The Democrats have no chance on this one. Coats will win by at least 15% on election day. And yeah I too was very surprised that Obama managed to win Indiana in 2008. Make no mistake though, he won't be able to pull it off again in 2012. That was simply a one time thing, I highly doubt that Indiana will ever be in the blue column for at least another 30-40 years. Indiana has always been a reliable red state and it always will.

In my opinion, the emerging blue states are the Southern East coast states. (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia) A couple of these states went for Obama in the last election, and their changing demographics are definitely favorable for the Democratic party.

On the other hand, I believe the emerging red states are located in the middle of the country and towards the mountain West. (West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio, and perhaps Colorado and Pennsylvania)

Of course this is just by prediction, whether or not it becomes true, we shall see. Anybody else got any predictions for future blue and red states?

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GoTo123:

By the way, check out this map I made of my predictions for the future blue/red/purple states: http://monarch.tamu.edu/~smrs/19311415.gif
Definitely looks a lot more diverse than election results of late.

Anyone care to place any bets? :P

By the way, if anyone else cares, I made the map from this site http://monarch.tamu.edu/~maps2/us.htm. I'd love to see what you guys think :).

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Farleftandproud:

I predict that the next senate and house will have it's share of tea partiers, however I think if the GOP in some states like NH or CO pick the more conservative candidate it will drastically improve the Democrats odds.

In Nevada, I bet if it wasn't for Angle's nomination, Reid would be a political dead duck. Now, I think he is going to pull this one off. Buck in Colorado matches up pretty well against the Democrats. I think extreme candidates will bring out the other side in huge numbers.

As for the GOP pulling an upset in a blue state, I think Murray is more vulnerable than Feingold because she doesn't have the charisma and a high energy campaigner, but than again I don't know much about Rossi. Isn't he sort of like Rudy Guilliani? He kind of reminded me of Rudy for some reason.

Feingold has a certain persona and loyal group of supporters that know he doesn't win by much, but he will win I believe. As a loyal Packer fan I would love to go be a cheesehead for a week and help the Feingold team in WI.

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Farleftandproud:

GoTo123:
In my opinion, the emerging blue states are the Southern East coast states. (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia) A couple of these states went for Obama in the last election, and their changing demographics are definitely favorable for the Democratic party."

I agree with you on NC and Virginia because of the high number of northern transplants in NC and the non-washington DC part of Virginia. Democraphics have changed. I think SC and Georgia Democrats have more work to do, reaching out to more than to city voters and black voters.

"On the other hand, I believe the emerging red states are located in the middle of the country and towards the mountain West. (West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio, and perhaps Colorado and Pennsylvania)"

I would agree with you on Arkansas, but West Virginia is a poor state, with a strong Democratic tradition and more union ties to mining. It doesn't mean they are going to love Obama, but I think it will remain blue.

Colorado, I disagree with because they have become an increasing blue state in recent years, and there are tons of progressives near Denver and Boulder.

Ohio, and PA are never truly going to be blue states or red states. I predict they will always be swing states because they are so diverse. Any state that has a fairly liberal cosmopolitan major city will likely be a swing state.

In the long run, if the GOP doesn't start to moderate their positions a little more and show they can work in a bi-partisan way, their base will become smaller. They may have to depend on Kansas, OK, Alaska, Nebraska, Arizona, Wyoming, Nevada, Montana, The Dakota's and a few other states. That won't win them the White house.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Texas's growth explosion in the past couple of years will have it trending towards more Democrat over the years. Latino, Younger voters tend to vote for Democrats. It's the same thing that has been happening to NEw Mexico. I live in PA. PA seems to be losing the younger generation here since they move to other places where there are more job opportunities. We are the 2nd oldest state in the union and it seems like it will only get older. I think PA will begin to trend redder unless young people stay and work here. NC and VA are slowly becoming bluer. They might become the next Maryland. MI will become redder as more and more blue collar workers leave the state because there are no more manufacturing jobs there anymore. I read somewhere that MI lost 35,000 people in one year.

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GoTo123:

Farleft: I'm not so sure that Colorado will become a blue state. Yes, Denver and Boulder are very liberal, but the state is just known for its independent nature. A lot of the residents in Colorado are ones that have a do-it-yourself I'm independent from everyone attitude (Colorado residents: I mean this in a good way :). This is definitely not a bad quality to have.) . This if anything is favorable to the libertarian movement. But yeah, I doubt you'll see the Colorado populace back either of the main parties significantly.

I have to also disagree with you in regards to Ohio and Pennsylvania. The rural communities are gaining power in both of these states due to the poor economic problems that have been plaguing the cities and suburban areas for decades now. Ohio and Michigan have a good chance of becoming new red states within a few election cycles or so. Pennsylvania is more likely to stay a purple state, but it too could become red if economic problems continue to worsen.

While West Virginia will probably remain Democratic at the state level, it will continue to shift to the right at the national level, albeit slowly. It has continued to shift further to the right in just about each election.

Georgia and South Carolina will probably look more like North Carolina and Virginia in a couple of years. If Obama ends his first term positively then he will take Georgia in the next election and by 2016 South Carolina may follow suit.

Chris Merkeley: I'm not so sold on Texas becoming a future blue state. While the gains made there in 2008 were certainly impressive, I doubt it'll be able to forgo it's conservative history. It'll probably be a purple state by around 2020 or so, but yeah the changing demographics will at least have a little of the Texas style conservatism rub on to them :). By the way, I think Georgia and northern Virginia will become the next Maryland. While North Carolina is shifting to the left, its demographics are very different from Maryland. While I could be wrong on this, I believe that Maryland and Virginia are expected to become minority-majority states sometime in the 2020's due to the high African American population in these states. Certainly no one can deny that a lot of blacks are flocking to the D.C/MD/northern VA area and to the metro and suburban Atlanta area.

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