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IN: McCain 45, Obama 43 (HoweyGauge-8/29-30)

Topics: PHome

Howey Politics Indiana /
Gauge Market Research
8/29-30/08; 600 RV, 4.1%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Indiana
McCain 45, Obama 43
Gov: Daniels (R-i) 53, Long Thompson (D) 35

 

Comments
boskop:

and ras daily trak has it basically even now though 60% of the responses were pre palin.

when they let palin into indiana, ohio, wis, and pa, things could get fun.

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bclintonk:

Very close in the Hoosier State. McCain's opposition to the farm bill and to ethanol subsidies is hurting him badly in the corn belt.

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BLeigh82:

I wish they had done this polling after the McCain VP pick. I'm thinking Palin will initially be seen in a very good light by many Indiana voters.
I wonder how hard the Obama campaign will fight for Indiana considering McCain has little presence there. This may just be one of the states Obama hopes to keep close until the end so McCain has to end up spending some cash there in crunch time.
I'd say this will end up staying red this year though if I had to put some money on it.

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boskop:

but it's honest of him. ethanol is a joke. should he just go ahead and buy famrers' votes even though it's the energy source is a non starter?

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thoughtful:

@Boskop

60% of the Ras trak is post Palin speech and its 48-46 (Obama loses 2 and McCain gains 1).

So lets's get it right.

As for this poll Obama has a big ground game in Indiana.

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mac7396:

Republicans, great at winning elections. Bad at governing. Perhaps just to prove to their followers that governmnent isn't the answer.

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axt113:

A pity McCain's speech was so terrible, it'll drag down any benefit Palin's speech gained

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kerrchdavis:

lucky for him, expectations were so low. I can't wait till they have them standing side by side.

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thoughtful:

Axt113:

We are electing a President - I know McCain isn't up to it. Bewtween his youthful running mate and Barrack Obama McCain looks even older.

10 days ago McCain 47 Obama 46 (Rasmussen) for one day and it was the end of the world to all the liberals on this site.

Implied in the Ras numbers is that it may well be a tie tomorrow with McCain at 47% last seen on 27/28/08 equalling his best ever. However please note there was extra R weighting added on to the Ras model September 1st. Apparently more Repubs registered in August than Dems in the month!

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KipTin:

Obamanation wishes that the McCain speech was terrible. NOT.

Bloomberg had an article about the funding increases for both Obama and McCain because of Palin. Obama apparently needs it because he is spending faster then the money coming in. McCain and the RNC now consider themselves able to be competitive in fundraising for the General. Obama has many fundraisers on his schedule. McCain is sending out Palin to the fundraisers so he can campaign full time. So how is this NO public funding strategy working for Obama?

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kerrchdavis:

Very well, when your opponent's speech makes you 10 million in 1 night.

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kerrchdavis:

48-44 Obama in today's gallup. That is with his Monday result rolling off where some estimate he polled 10-13 pts higher. Good news guys~

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freedomreigns:

Out of date. More likely McCain 48-9 Obama 44-5 today.

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kerrchdavis:
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KipTin:

Only "idiots" here are the ones who call others "idiots."

The Gallup poll only has ONE day of polling that includes Palin's speech. Rasmussen had 60% post-Palin speech. Apparently, Gallup lags behind one day. According to Gallup "The full impact of the GOP convention on voter preferences will not be known until Monday's report, the first in which all interviews will have been conducted following the convention's conclusion."

P.S. I knew it. Once Obama lost his bounce, then the Rasumussen tracking which was lauded as "right on" when Obama was at 50% and 51% is now again being targeted with bias toward GOP.

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KipTin:

Apparently the incumbent Governor of Indiana (Republican) is well-liked. That is good for all GOP candidates in that state. Just as "disappointment" for Michigan's incumbent Democrat Governor (although not up for election this year) is bad for Dems. And Nader (Lebanese-American) is still a factor in Michigan, especially among the Muslim/Arab-American voters (which has a very large population in Michigan).

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zotz:

KipTin
Didn't you just call kerchdavis an "idiot"?
And, according to what you said, doesn't that make YOU an... well, you know what I mean.

Just a little humor... don't get mad.

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kerrchdavis:

Actually, the "idiots" here are, in fact, people who are idiots. If you expect a 49-42 advantage to turn into a 49-45 disadvantage in 1 night, well...enough said.

Anyway, no one said Gallup did NOT cover just 1 day of polling. However, with Obama's big Monday falling off and no longer a factor, the bounce towards McCain will not be as significant in the coming days, I dont expect. Obviously, I could be wrong and this whole thing might be tied up by Sunday. However, I think McCain will close the gap another point or two by the time everything is accounted for early next week but Obama will have a 2pt lead or so.

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boskop:

@thoughtful
"However please note there was extra R weighting added on to the Ras model September 1st."

pick and choose your way around every argument, why dont you?.

bottom line, even this latest poll doesnt fully track palin bounce. and even this website run by mark blumenthal is transparently obama.

yet i visit it and give fundamentalists like yourself enough credibility to correspond.

Mccain gave his typically ridiculous teleprompter speech. what can you do? it was just plain awful. i see candidates honestly do you?

your disdain for him and palin says a lot, though, about you actually: that you want to believe a leader share every dotted i and crossed t that you have.

but that is childish and inevitably headed for the trash. obama has himself shifted so often that you must either have shifted with him in which case your moral-suasion is dubious, or you coincidentally shift with him in which case you are either obama himself or at worst his wife.

i am hardly in lock step with mccain or palin.
i am more concerned with the character flaws that jiggle trigger fingers and in obama's case for all his ranting and raving about one
dippity speech six years ago, he is the one i fear most for bringing about another sad war in pakistan or afghanistan or both.

his understanding of the hezbollah and muslim nexus despite his body of consultants is grossly lacking and obfuscated..

it is never just about sunni shia lines drawn in the sand. if it were, then syria a sunni country would hardly be in bed with iran a shia one.

obama will want to prove his macho. he wants to disprove iraq which is a no brainer and over compensate with something else. he carries two memoirs full of soul and self searching enabled by money gifts showered on him by the U of C for his lack luster performance on the Harvard Law Review just because he was black.

mccain gave a poor speech. but i am not voting for a speechifier. i am voting for a man who knows what war is like first hand and that from inside a little smelly foul box.

i am voting for a man who can give the finger to his own party. can yours?

have fun in london...but stop telling us what it is like over here if you are not over here.


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Stillow:

A 3 point swing, +2 for JM and -1 for Obama is an early sign of what the Palin affect will have early next week. Palin is turning out the best choice possible for the GOP.With the far left and media attacks on palin clearly backfiring as her approval ratings show, its going to help the ticket. Ras is closing, Gallup is closing and we haven't even has a full accounting of the convention yet.
If I had to lay a bet, I would bet McCain has a small lead by the middle of next week. People love hte Palin pick....I think the mroe the far left and media go after her, the stronger she will get.
All you libs earlier this week talking about how long will it be before JM dumps Palin? Wipe the egg off your face....cus now the question is how long until Obama dumps Biden. Obama has lost his magic, he is now coming off as a typical politician....Palin is new coming out as the outsider and fresh face....her approval ratings are higher than Mccain, Biden and Obama's.......
McCain will have a small lead next week...and McCains strength is in debate and town hall type of situations, Obama's much much stronger in a scripted setting...I do not see Obama making up any groudn i nthe debates, if anyting, he will lose ground....he will fill up those 2 minute answers with way to many uhhhhh's.

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kerrchdavis:

sigh...ok, boskop. McCain certainly knows what war is like firsthand, and if that is your priority, you're voting for the right guy.

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thoughtful:

Morning Stillow,

Don't get mad at me Boskop

Obama has a high watermark of 50% and 51% with these trak polls.

Personally I don't think McCain can get back to over 47% (even with the extra RAS Repub ID weighting help he has had since Sept 1)his prev high watermark.

I don't think McCain has got above 45% with Gallup, has he?

So today vs yesterday Obama is down 1 with Gallup and down 2 with Ras 48% and McCain is up 2 with Gallup 44% and up 1 with Ras 46%!

Tomorrow may have a little bit more going McCain's way. If he can't get it past his high watermarks in the next few days - spells trouble- with all the exposure the ticket has been getting!

McCain/Palin are doing better than I anticipated Boskop - I can look forward to Player, Marctx beating me up over the next few days! Going fishin

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

There will be some noiese early next week...I think by next friday we will have a fairly accurate idea of where this race is...I suspect it will be close, 47-45, going either way type of #'s...I think McCain will be ahead though. The left is underestimating how popular Palin is. McCain made a great move, he picked hte one person who can help him win, but also created a superstar in the GOP which can be competitive in future races. If next Friday Mccain is ahead by 1 o2....I can almost promise you Biden will suddenly get sick and have to drop out.....and Obama will replace him with the Kansas governor.

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boskop:

@stillow

i dont think mccain will make up the poll diff.

but he can win the election. we know that by now.

all he has to do is win certain states and this time, i am not going to contest the idiocy of this ancient electoral stupidity that is totally out dated.

this time, when the electoral votes trump the majority, who the hell cares anymore if no one including the dems ever did anything about it?

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Inkan1969:

@Stillow

"how long until Obama dumps Biden"? "Obama has lost his magic"? Where the heck are you getting that? All this is pure fantasy, especially the crazy idea bout dumping Biden.

Whatever popularity Palin is experiencing now is purely novelty value. The ticket that made such a big deal about celebrity appeal is now depending entirely on celebrity appeal of the Veep for life support. All she's done is robotically recite a speech that was written by someone else, and now she's not doing ANY interviews at all. Such an insubstantial persona very much fits into the "celebrity" meme. I think her current popularity will fade out as quickly as Paris Hilton's presidential popularity has since faded out. U.S. citizens will not embrace her right wing extremist politics.

McCain is going to be up by 1 or 2 points? He's SUPPOSED to be up that much just because he's had his convention. That's something that would've happened no matter whom the veep was. You actually think that's impressive? If he's really up by 1-2% by next week, I'd call that zero gain.

And people have forgotten about next week's possible game changer, Ike. Right now Ike is a major storm threatening Florida: My parents live in Miami and we're very concerned right now. If Ike does hit next week, people's attention will be on that, not McCain.

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faithhopelove:

According to this poll, IN remains a statistical tie (before the Republican convention, at least). Obama and Biden snuck a visit to IN in a few days ago; Obama returns to the state tomorrow. McCain continues to ignore the state. Undecideds may feel neglected if he continues to do so, and break for Obama; part of politics is showing up.

While this poll is already dated, it only shows McCain +2 because it under-sampled young people and over-sampled old people. It also assumes that African-American turnout will be about the same as in 2004, and that Hispanic turnout will be lower than in 2004. See the crosstabs.

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Florida Voter:

This polling data is truly amazing. GWB won Indiana by 20.7% in 2004 and 15.7% in 2000. To be this close means McCain and company have to spend money here. Maybe the Republicans in these old rosie red states feel that they are never heard by the Republicans and want to be heard for a change. This is great news.

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Gary Kilbride:

I was rooting for a flurry of Indiana statewide polls after the Democratic convention but before the GOP convention, hoping it would translate into an Obama "lead" in Indiana and influence the trading price.

No such luck. It's trending down but still in the 70/30 range. I want more at 60.

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Paul:

As "faithhopelove" points out, there are a number of variables which have to be factored in: (a) poll was take before the GOP convention which means it understates McCain; (b) poll under samples young people which means it overstates McCain; (c) poll most likely has under sampled AA and Hispanics, which means it overstates McCain. The question is how much does each contribute to the McCain +2.

McCain must not not think Indiana is in play?

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Mike In Maryland:

Boskop said...
"[Obama] is the one i fear most for bringing about another sad war in pakistan or afghanistan or both."

Got news for you Boskop - We already are conducting military actions in Afghanistan, and have been there since November, 2002. Just recently the 500th American soldier was killed since action started in Afghanistan.

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cinnamonape:

KipTin...Palin is going to bring in more funding? From who...the Presidential Public Finance Fund? McCain opted to apply for public financing of his Presidential campaign. Obama didn't. So people who try to give to McCain-Palin will find that their donations are returned as of today (when he accepted the nomination).

Advantage Obama!

And Boskop (a spot in South Africa I believe)...weren't you sending in your views from France about a week ago?

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KipTin:

You do not understand how donations are done if the candidate accepts public funding. In the case of the GOP, money is now directed to the McCain-Palin Victory Fund which is money for RNC to use for McCain, Congressional races, and offset specific/limited McCain campaign expenses. The key is the total monies available as in Obama + DNC or McCain + RNC. Obama may have more money than McCain, but the RNC has more money than the DNC. Now it looks like both sides will be equitably funded. Check out Bloomberg story "McCain Camp to Leave Convention With $200 Million, Aide Says" at
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPN78zX1eg10&refer=us

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thoughtful:

I have had a further look at the crosstabs on this poll and these would appear to favour John McCain.

The 18-29% polled is 7%. The exit polls from 2004 give 14% of this group voted.

The other anomoly is party afiliation seems to be a higher tilt to the Republicans since 2004.

Has anybody else looked at the cross tabs?

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