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IN: McCain 47, Obama 45 (HoweyGauge-10/23-24)

Topics: PHoe

Howey/Gauge
10/23-24/08; 600 LV, 4.1%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Indiana
McCain 47, Obama 45
Gov: Daniels (R-i) 61, Long Thompson (D) 30

 

Comments
davidsfr:

Indiana will be the closest state, and it will go for Obama, by about 100 votes.

You heard it here!

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IdahoMike:

Indiana is for schizo's!

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Basil:

GOTV!

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political_junki:
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Basil:

Thanks p_j.

I was worried for a minute.

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jeepdad:

Eric's burning the midnight oil. Thanks for the update -- and the new thread.

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Lechuguilla:

There's a big inconsistency between some of the national trackers and individual state polls.

For those daily trackers showing margin of O + by just 2 or 3, I would expect McCain to be leading in Indiana by at least 10 points. Ditto Arizona, Georgia, and Montana. That these Republican states are so close implies a wider than 2 to 3 national lead for O.

Alternately, if Obama's national lead really is about 2 to 3 percent, then these statewide polls are worthless.

Point being that I would expect some degree of consistency between the state polls and the national daily trackers, and I'm not seeing it, at least for Gallup "traditional", Zogby, itt or ibb (or whatever that alphabet soup poll is called).

Lech

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AdamSC:

Was reading Politico earlier, they have an Election Challenge thread in this format.


Popular Vote Percentages: Obama vs. McCain

Electoral College: Obama vs. McCain

Upset State:

House: Seat gains

Senate: Seat Gains

Upset Seat Gain:

My Election Prediction:

I'm using NBC's EV Map for my Default with Obama 286 vs. McCain 163. With additional BG state wins. My original prediction stands at 344(obama) vs. 194(mccain) but this scenario will include an upset win.

Popular Vote Percentages: Obama 53%; McCain 45%; Other 2%

Elecotral College: Obama 355; McCain 168

Upset: Indiana (Closest to Illnois and Obama is outspending McCain)

House: +22 Seats for Democrats D - 258 R - 177

Senate: +9 gain for Democrats, enough for majority.

Senate upset: Franken beats Coleman (Coleman same idiot who lost against Jesse Ventura)

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JerryTheAngel:

McCain has an enthusiasm gap. He has a large grass roots organization/ground game gap. There is a wide disparity in fund raising. There is the gap of new voters being registered. The incumbent GOP President has a 25 percent approval rating. 85 percent of the country thinks we are on the wrong track.

States like Indiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Montana, and North Dakota will bare the fruit of the above points, loud and clear, a week from now.


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danzelsimage:

Here's some news from Zogby: Dr. James Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute, said that "A combination of factors point not only to a huge Obama victory among Arab American voters-but a dramatic surge in the percentage of Arab Americans identifying as democrats." Noting that Arab Americans in Michigan represent about 5% of that state's electorate, while in Virginia and Ohio they comprise almost 2% of the vote, he continued "this can have an impact not only in the presidential election but in down ticket contests as well."
Who is James Zogby? He is a senior analyst with the polling firm Zogby International, founded and managed by his brother John Zogby, and is a lecturer and scholar on Middle East issues. Wow, you learn something new everyday.

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douglasdao:

Great post on early voting trends:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/harbinger.html

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danzelsimage:

Quote from Palin:

"And Alaska"we"re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it"s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.It"s to maximize benefits for Alaskans, not an individual company, not some multinational somewhere, but for Alaskans."

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/27/palin-shares-wealth/

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Dana Adini:

i think NC will be closer than indiana

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zen:

@Lechuguilla,

There are 2 groups of national polls these days.

1st group shows 2-4 % edge for Obama (this group is excluding first time voter and infrequent voters and don't include cell phone only users)

2nd group shows 7-10 % edge for obama.(this group is using expanded likely voter model and include cell phone users)--- from my observation thru primary, 2nd group is more accurate for Obama

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Dana Adini:

guys...very easy to measure the spread in this race. If you aggregate the state polls (RCP or 538 trend adjusted averages) and weight them based on the 2004 elections result you get (yesterday's numbers)

Obama 50.6%
McCain 42.6%

that's where the race is right now

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political_junki:

Watch this from Gallup, it should eliminate any worry you might have about tightening. Obama is 10 points ahead among 18% of total voters who have already voted. That is 1.8% head start in popular vote.
http://www.gallup.com/fvideo.aspx?i=7eYZ@9X3ql-nYe6CwIBU3J1xK7ojVQtcbvxeDqCy(.XRPr9HhmToXhy7WvdHNAx8tn4TAswKVM6bQJQJjPpqNpQaa

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Dana Adini:

people who get worked up changes and noise in national polls are wasting their time worrying abount nonsense. for 1 it doesn't decide the election and 2 its fairly inaccurate. national polls are made of an average 40 people sample in 50 non homogenous states. It's subject to much noise and it assumes that voting trends are similar in each state.

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Dana Adini:

not worried about tightening. The state polls in states that matter are widening

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

My upset prediction, Obama wins North Dakota.

If the election were today O would win: Ohio,Florida, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada

McCain would win Indiana, Missouri, and by a hair North Carolina

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NW Patrick:

No way McCain wins Missouri.

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Dana Adini:

I think Obama is slightly ahead in Missouri but I agree with you on Indiana and North Carolina by a hair (which will hinge in Dem turnout)

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The Dude:

My prediction: Obama wins every state but Alaska. Then on January 20th, he signs an exectuive order to sell the 50th state to the Alaska Independence Party for $150,000 to neuter the whack job's frivolous spending.

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truebljb1:

Zogby 50 - 43 3 point move for Obama

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NW Patrick:

WOW ZOGBY!

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jeepdad:

50-43. Now we know why crickets were chirping at Drudge.

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truebljb1:

Do you think McCain or Palin will make one more trip to Colorado/Nevada. I don't think they can win without a minimum atleast 1 of the 2

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hou04:

According to Zogby's website.. numbers are UNCHANGED... 49/44

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Schoeby3131:

Where are you guys getting 50-43? I'm seeing 49.1 to 44.4?

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NW Patrick:

Ummm 49.1%, McCain 44.4% per Zogby's site. Am I missing something?

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Dana Adini:

no they can't afford to go back west...lastweek of election they will be florida, Ohio, PA (???), NC, Virginia

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truebljb1:

Sorry,

My buddy must of pulled a fast one on me.

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NW Patrick:

Well regardless Obama gained. So much for "Surge."

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jeepdad:

well, i was just quoting true. sorry.

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NW Patrick:

Still good news. Another lost day for McCain. If this tracker ends at 5% by Monday it's a good sign.

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Dana Adini:

5 points a week to we'll take it. Don't forget zogby is using 2004 party weights so the lead is probably higher

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truebljb1:

McCain actually polled slightly better than the past two days, but a Obama plus 3 rolled off.

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bmrKY:

Obama did move up .4 points. Zogs tightening seems to have halted for now. It's important to keep in mind that Zogby only gives the dems a 2 point party ID advantage, when it's really more along the lines of a 6-8 point advantage even according to Rasmussen.

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political_junki:

Zogby's numbers are bull**** on so many levels that I dont know where to start. Well, here is for starters:
"Among men, the race is essentially tied - McCain wins 47% support, Obama wins 46% backing. Obama continues to enjoy an advantage of 10 points among women."

If Obama leads among women by 10 and they are tied among men, knowing that women vote more than men, shouldnt his lead be more than 5 (half of his lead among women?)
...
I wont even mention the party id, since it has been mentioned 20,000,000 times before...

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KMartDad08:

+5 on Zogby means Obama is really close to +8. I knew it couldn't be good news for McCain or Drudge would have linked to it 5 hours ago!

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truebljb1:

Last nights polling would be right about Obama plus 4. I'm a McCain supporter (and realist), so on the trip out West do you just rely on moving the national numbers. They would need to get 1 of the 2.

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jeepdad:


OK, I'll take a 4.7 lead with 5 polling days left. At least it's staying stable at the moment.

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Gary Kilbride:

Lechuguilla, good point about the illogical relationship between some of the state margins and national polls. I ignore state polls and try to identify the national margin. If you get that right, the states fall in line.

Right now I believe the national margin is 6, headed to 5 or 4.5 by election day. I hope it's higher but that would be my current projection. If that's correct, then Indiana and Georgia are outside Obama's grasp, and North Carolina is borderline, although the early voting began when Obama's national margin was at apex.

I still think this will be like the primaries, when Obama's most fervent supporters tried to pretend states like California, Massachusetts, Ohio and Pennsylvania would topple his way, despite demographic indications in Hillary's favor.

Those states with 40+% self-identified conservatives are hellish to sway.

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Dana Adini:

Zogby has been a joke this whole election season. The 2004 party ID, the leaks to drudge, the rollcoaster margins, the sucking up to hannity. Look at him compared to Rasmussen (he is right wing leaning) not to mention how bad he was in 2004.

I'm surprised he get the time of day.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

The problem with numbers not moving is that the whole cause for excitement was that there was McCain momentum that would have it "tied by sunday". This is why people wait longer then a day and look for trends.

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Dana Adini:

Gary,

National polls are a predictive tool as far as trends..but state polls are more accurate and sometimes a close national race is a an electoral landslide.

For instance 5 to 6 points might seem close but the electoral race, barring a major event is really out reach

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jeepdad:

Well, if DKOS and Rasmussen can show a bit if improvement in the morning I'll feel better until Gallup comes out.

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mr2dco:

just think about zogby like this: if he used the party identification composition of a pollster like rasmussen (D=40, R=33, I=27), obama would lead the zogby poll around 51% to 43%. make sense? just another way to keep perspective...

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Dana Adini:

jeepdad...relax....barring a real bad game changer....this one is pretty much over. # kneeldowns and run out the clock

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straight talk:

WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE THAT THIS RACE IS TIGHTENING? McCAIN IS A WEAK CANDIDATE! YOU CAN'T COMPARE HIM TO HILLARY! HILLARY HAD THE WHOLE FEMALE VOTE! McCAIN IS HAVIN A WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTER PROBLEM!

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Dana Adini:

51 43 is probably where the race is right now

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VA Yellow Dog:

So it comes down to this, To reach 270 EVs, Obama must only:

1. Take Kerry states plus CO, IA, NM, NV (in all of which he currently leads), but less PA (despite his current lead there) for 257 EVs; and
2. Take any one of FL, OH, PA, VA.

On the other hand, McCain must:
1. Take all the states where he currently leads for 142 EVs;
2. Take all the pollster.com toss up states for 85 EVs; and
3. Take OH, PA, and any other state where Obama currently leads.

Not impossible for McCain, but I like Obama's chances much better.

On the flip side, I went to poll watcher training at the local (Richmond, VA) Obama headquarters and was reminded of the old saying "I don't believe in organized political parties: I'm a Democrat." I know they're working hard, but if this is what a good ground game looks like, I'd hate to see a bad one.

No room for complacency, no matter what you're political preference. Get out and volunteer and VOTE!

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bmrKY:

According to a poster at Open Left:

15 out of the last 21 days Zogby has had Obama up by 4, 5, or 6 percentage points.

So much for the OMGZZZZ MUHKANE IZ SURGINNNN!!!11!! storyline. The Zogster seems as stable and crappy as ever before. Nothing more, nothing less.

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"McCAIN IS HAVIN A WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTER PROBLEM!"

Yes he is!

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Lechuguilla:

Gary Kilbride ... That's kinda how I look at it too.

By the way, consistent with my post way above, Missouri will indeed go for Obama, if O's national lead is 3 points or higher. Missouri, and Ohio too, almost always end up within about 1 or 2 points of the national percentages.


Lech

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straight talk:

THIS IS WHY I THINK OBAMA IS AT 14+ NATIONALLY AND THE POLLSTERS ARE BEING CONSERVATIVE! ACCORDING TO GALLUP OBAMA IS GETTING 44% OF ALL WHITE VOTERS!# THAT A DEMOCRAT HAS NOT GOTTEN SINCE CARTERS LANDSLIDE! IF THAT IT TRUE, HE IS ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO 70% OF HISPANICS, AND 100% OF BLACKS! AND THE HIDDEN YOUTH VOTE NOT TO MENTION! AND HE IS WINNING ALL THE BATTLEGROUND STATES AND GAINING IN REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS LIKE AZ, MT, GA, AND IN! WHY IS POLLS SHOWIN HIM AT 6-7% NATIONALLY! WHEN HE IS LEADING IN MORE STATE POLLS THAN BILL CLINTON WAS IN 96! AND BILL WAS IN DOUBLE DIGITS NATIONALLY!!!!

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VA Yellow Dog

I was wondering about that... Can you give some details on why it seemed so bad in the office?

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Pat:

@Gary Kilbride:

Are you comparing Hillary to McCain? Hillary was constantly getting better towards to end, McCain is getting worst. Obama had to deal with Rev. Wright 2 weeks before PA primary. And we did not have the economic meltdown at that time. Also, Obama was less known and Hillary had the great Clinton name ID. On top of all of that, republicans were voting for Hillary to disrupt the democratic primary. I think there is no comparison.

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[nemesis]:

I keep seeing Rasmussen grouped with Zogby as right-leaning pollsters. While occasionally, Ras does have a slight rightward lean, I honestly believe he tries very hard to provide unbiased results. I think he is quite successful, especially now that his party ID is catching up with a lot of other pollsters. I think people mistake his conservative estimates and slow uptake of trends as GOP bias, but I don't think that's it at all. I don't agree with his personal political beliefs, but I have a great deal of respect for his analysis and polling. Maybe people can take a minute to step back, review the facts, and maybe come up with the same conclusions that I have.

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Pat:

@straight talk:

Agreed. The question is whether Obama is really getting 40% of the white vote?

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[nemesis]:

straighttalk:

I think your "Shift" key is stuck... :-P

No, really, it's much easier to read your posts in lower-case. With upper-case, everything runs together and spaces seem to disappear. That and everybody thinks you're yelling. It hurts our ears. :-)

Just a thought.

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What about this whole Party ID thing? Are they saying the pollsters ask someone what party they belong to? Or what party they are voting for?

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Basil:


Hi Dana,

I posted this on a previous thread in response to a post of yours. I hope it's relevant:

You seem to be the likeliest person here to have a definite opinion on Khalidi in general, yes? He's an interesting figure.

It would appear that McCain's newly publicized favorability to some of Khalidi's mideast efforts would offset whatever negatives the LAT tape might hold for Obama. The right-wingers you've seen probably haven't picked up on that yet. In a way, McCain's favorability towards Khalidi is more substantive than Obama's, but it would be nice to see the tape.

The LAT may have compelling reasons not to release the tape, other than trying to protect Obama, so it may not even be up to them.

Re Khalidi, here's a Wiki bit:

In May of 2008, Barack Obama spoke at a synagogue at an event in Boca Raton, Florida and the question of his relationship with Khalidi was brought up. In response, Obama stated that “[Khalidi] is Palestinian. And I do know him and I have had conversations. He is not one of my advisors; he’s not one of my foreign policy people. His kids went to the Lab school where my kids go as well. He is a respected scholar, although he vehemently disagrees with a lot of Israel’s policy... To pluck out one person who I know and who I’ve had a conversation with who has very different views than 900 of my friends and then to suggest that somehow that shows that maybe I’m not sufficiently pro-Israel, I think, is a very problematic stand to take…So we gotta be careful about guilt by association.”

In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, Khalidi stated that he strongly disagrees with Obama's views on Israel. However, because of Obama's "unusual background, with family ties to Kenya and Indonesia," Khalidi stated that he believes that Obama is "more understanding of the Palestinian experience than typical American politicians."

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Lechuguilla:

To ignore the national numbers is folly, in my opinion. Let's not just see what we wanna see. That's what Repubs do, and it's called delusion.

There's a huge variation in the national numbers, i.e. the trackers that say it's a 2 or 3 point O lead, vs. the non-trackers (Pew, Bloomberg, NYT, & other "regular" polls) which have O's lead much higher, more like 7 to 10 points.

So, why are the "regular", non-tracking polls showing a bigger national lead for Obama than the daily tracking polls?

My question is somewhat rhetorical. I'm not really expecting a definitive answer. I'm just trying to justify in my own mind these numbers in a way that makes logical sense. The last thing I want to do is be optimistically delusional about Obama's chances.

Lech :)

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VonnegutIce9:

Early Vote vs. Amount Needed by McCain for comeback:

Source: CNN.com

*Note: In this model I give McCain 2/3 of Independents (generous, I know)

IA: 339,725 early votes
IA: 1,149,440 total votes in 2004
IA: 809,715 votes remaining

Dem: 49.5% (57% w/Ind)
Rep: 28.0% (43% w/Ind)
Ind: 23.0%

Votes Already Cast:

Obama: 193,643
McCain: 146,081

McCain needs: 56% of remaining votes to win

NC: 1,284,127 early votes
NC: 3,447,525 total votes in 2004
NC: 2,163,398 votes remaining

Dem: 60.0% (63% w/Ind)
Rep: 31.0% (37% w/Ind)
Ind: 09.0%

Votes Already Cast:

Obama: 809,000
McCain: 475,126

McCain needs: 65.5% of remaining votes to win

NV: 300,262 early votes
NV: 821,866 total votes in 2004
NV: 521,604 votes remaining

Dem: 53.0% (58.5% w/Ind)
Rep: 30.0% (41.5% w/Ind)
Ind: 17.0%

Votes Already Cast:

Obama: 175,653
McCain: 124,608

McCain needs: 56% of remaining votes to win

These are the only battleground states with enough information to do this, so let's recap:

Iowa: McCain needs 56% of remaining votes
North Carolina: McCain needs 65.5% of remaining votes
Nevada: McCain needs 56% of remaining votes

Looking grim for McCain in NC...

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OneAngryDwarf:

Oops looks like the Rethugs can't win it without cheating. Hilarious (and scary) video of the wonderful Diebold technology in action.

WV Voter Fraud

Now before some Republican idiot goes and posts some stupid comment about ACORN, please remember that was "Voter Registration Fraud."

This my friends is actual "voter fraud." There is a big difference. If I commit "Voter Registration Fraud" I submit Mickey Mouse as a registered voter. If I commit "voter fraud" Mickey actually has to show up at the polls and vote.

With voter registration fraud you are disenfranchising imaginary people. With plain old voter fraud you are disenfranchinsing actual people.

If you can't keep this straight you are probably a Republican so don't worry your vote will be counted.

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straight talk:

Even if you put Obama at tied in national polling right now you would have a hard time justifying it. Obama is up at least +5 in all the battleground states and he is closing fast in red red strongholds! So my theory is that nationally the polls are not reflecting the electorate! My opinion is that the Pew Research poll with Obama+ 15 is accurate! Because you cannot be up 3-4% nationally and closing in on states like GA, Mt, Az, Ms, Nc, Mo,and IN if it is suppose to be that tight.

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faithhopelove:

"ACTUAL VOTER" NUMBERS IN SUSA/SUFFOLK/RASMUSSEN/PPP/LATIMES POLLS
(most recent polls for each pollster)

VA
SUSA
O: 67%
M: 30%

NM
SUSA
O: 60%
M: 37%

IA
SUSA
O: 65%
M: 31%

IN
SUSA
O: 50%
M: 46%

OH
SUSA
O: 56%
M: 39%
LATIMES
O: 57%
M: 35%

NC
SUSA
O: 59%
M: 36%
PPP
O: 63%
M: 36%
RASMUSSEN: From the narrative of yesterday's Rasmussen poll of NC: "Obama leads among North Carolina voters who have already cast their ballots, while McCain leads among those who have not."

GA
SUSA
O: 52%
M: 46%

FL
SUSA
O: 45%
M: 53%
LATIMES
O: 45%
M: 49%
http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2008-10/43084942.pdf
Suffolk
O: 60%
M: 40%
See:
http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/MI101890


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I'm surprised they are actually counting the votes that have been cast already.

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laguna_b:

If we win and have not banned ALL paperless Deibold machines by the 2 year election cycle we will have failed at our most critical task!

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faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
(updated)


5 Days Ago:

Obama ~ IN
Joe Biden ~ NC

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ PA


4 Days Ago:

Obama ~ HI
Joe Biden ~ WV, VA
Michelle Obama ~ OH
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ PA, CO
Bill Clinton ~ KY

McCain ~ CO
Palin ~ PA, MO


3 Days Ago:

Obama ~ NV, NM
Joe Biden ~ VA
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ TX, NM, UT

McCain ~ NM
Palin ~ IA, IN


2 Days Ago:

Obama ~ CO

McCain ~ IA, OH
Palin ~ FL, NC


Yesterday:

Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV

McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA


Today:

Obama ~ PA, VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH

McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA


Tomorrow:

Obama ~ NC, FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NC
Bill Clinton ~ PA, FL

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ OH, IN


Thursday:

Obama ~ FL, VA, MO
Joe Biden ~ PA, MO
Bill Clinton ~ OH, MN

McCain ~ OH
Palin ~ MO, OH, PA


Friday:

Obama ~ MO, IA
Joe Biden ~ MO

McCain ~ OH


Saturday:

Joe Biden ~ IN
Hillary ~ FL
Bill Clinton ~ WV

McCain ~ VA
Palin ~ NC


Sunday:

Joe Biden ~ OH
Bill Clinton ~ NH


Monday:

McCain ~ AZ?


Speculation on locations of Obama's final weekend (Saturday-Monday) rallies:

Philadelphia
Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Charleston
Miami
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Arlington
Charlotte
East Chicago/Gary
Bloomington
Indianapolis
Omaha
Atlanta

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faithhopelove:

SWING STATE NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS


CO
O: 13
M: 4

FL
O: 12
M: 4

GA
O: 3
M: 0

IN
O: 5
M: 0

IA:
O: 6
M: 3

ME
O: 3
M: 1

MN
O: 2
M: 2

MO
O: 3
M: 0

MT
O: 1
M: 0

NV
O: 2
M: 2

NH
O: 5
M: 3

NM
O: 3
M: 1

NC
O: 8
M: 0

ND
O: 0
M: 1

OH
O: 11
M: 6

PA
O: 16
M: 5

VA
O: 4
M: 10

WV
O: 3
M: 1

WI
O: 7
M: 3

See:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Obama SURGES in Zogby!! .4 gain with 6 days to go!!!

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Lechuguilla:

Vonnegut...

You are jumping to conclusions. You cannot assume that all Democratic voters are voting for Obama. Further, the total turnout for this year almost certainly will exceed 2004; thus, total votes already cast, as a percentage of total votes, is lower than what your figures indicate.

Let's not just see what we wanna see. You've got some great numbers there. And the early votes in Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada make me cautiously optimistic that Obama will win those states. But in the South particularly, applying party ID data to early votes is tricky at best.

Lech

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[nemesis]:

What a perfect way to end the night. We're getting a dumping of lake-effect snow, I get to go driving in it for the first time this winter, then I get back home and find that even Zogby is showing things moving back towards Obama. Not only do the state polls indicate an incredible blow-out for Obama, but we should have 8-12 inches of snow by the time this storm passes. Yippee!!!

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laguna_b:

Snow? lake-effect? hmmm....here in california I am just hoping for a heat wave break...and rain.

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I hear ya laguna. I'm over the border in Vegas and it's even hot for here this time of year. Can't wait for the cold days and snow on Mt. Charleston!

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laguna_b:

Love those cold crispy nights to cool off my wine locker....it can get down in the mid-40s when we get a marine layer fog in the coastal mountains...saves me cooling power that way....

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VonnegutIce9:

@Lechuguilla

I wasn't expecting my numbers to be completely accurate, but if you look at what percentage of Democrats and Republicans each candidate is losing, it is about 10-11% for each...which slightly favors McCain...but remember I tried to make-up for this by giving him the advantage in Independent voters.

You are right though that there should be more voters this year, so McCain would need slightly less of a percentage...

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thoughtful:

Good Morning

This is the best news McCain has had from Indiana for some time.

I have it as a red state turning blue.

Is it tonight that we have the uplifting treat of President in waiting Obama addressing the nation on the economy?

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I have been observing Pollster.com and reading posts for months now. Time for me to weigh in, with 6 days to go. I do believe the make or break State for everything to collapse heavily on McCain is INDIANA. If exit polls and early hard data show Indiana very close or a lead for Obama, all flood gates will open. And the potential for over 400 EVs is there.

Here is what I believe are the thresholds and the “dam breaking” potential for Obama come next Tuesday. Based on what I see from early voting, ground-game operations, public and private polling, and consensus among pundits (from FOX to CNN to MSNBC).

286 EV (90% chance)
1st Water Mark (the dam is cracking)
KERRY STATES + IA + VA + NM + CO

338 EV (75% chance)
2nd Water Mark (the dam has huge cracks)
1st WM + FL, OH, NV

375 EV (60% chance)
3rd Water Mark (the dam has broken!)
2nd WM + IN, MO, NC

393 EV (45% chance)
4th Water Mark (the city has flooded!)
3rd WM + ND, GA

411 EV (30% chance)
5th Water Mark (the county has flooded!)
4th WM + MT + AZ + WV

420 EV (15% chance)
6th Water Mark (holy sh*t)
5th WM + MS + SD

The third water mark minus 1 of those pickups is the MOST LIKELY scenario.

PREDICTION: OBAMA 349-375 EVs

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@straight talk:
Carter did not win in a landslide:

Carter 40,831,881 297 EV
Ford 39,148,634 240 EV

Also, as others have mentioned please stop SHOUTING.

@working class:
As a trivial matter regarding the organization of the Obama ground game here (Richmond, VA), for the past week they have been completely out of yard signs, bumper stickers, lapel buttons, etc. Not terribly important, but not a sign of good organization.

As a non-trivial matter, the poll watcher training was terribly organized. It started 20 min. late, and they only got 5 min. in when they let the volunteers completly side track the session with trivial questions for the next 15 min. They had twice as many volunteers as they needed for the number of polling places they plan to monitor, and no plans for how to use the additional volunteers. They also were completely flummoxed by the question as to whether one can poll-watch in a locality other than that in which one is registered to vote. Moreover, they have no plans to poll-watch in the most heavily Republican county in the area, which is where one would most likely expect Republican vote suppression shenanigans and where they ran out of paper ballots in Obama-leaning precincts during the primary.

All in all, I was not impressed with their preparations or organizational abilites.

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Mike In Maryland:

faithhopelove:

Two things:

On your "upcoming on the trail, PLEASE state the day and date (i.e., Sun. Oct. 26; Mon. Oct. 27, etc.). When viewing your post a day later, or even the same day, 'today', 'tomorrow', or even 'three days ago' makes it difficult to decipher.

On your "swing state newspaper endorsements", the Fort Wayne [Indiana] News-Sentinel endorsed McLameBrain on the 28th. Not a surprise at all, as the N-S endorsed Hoover in 1932, and has only endorsed Rs every other election before and since.

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zoot:

VA Yellow Dog - signage has been a consistent issue with the campaign. In NH, we've historically placed a lot of emphasis on that - small state so not a large investment, effective way of communicating support to the undecideds, etc. On making inquiries to Chicago, we were told that simply wasn't a priority. We eventually got them, but with barely enough to go around.

I'm surprised at the apparent disorganization at your session. The campaign has been rigidly structured and very effective here. It can vary from district to district, depending on who's in charge - I've seen some quiet reassignments of people who weren't getting it done. They don't spend a lot of time worrying about hurt feelings, nor should they.

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jonny87:

looking for a better day on the national trackers

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Mike In Maryland:

The bad news for McCain.

(There have been many posts about how Obama can win 270+ Electoral College votes (Kerry states + + +.)

Let's look at the McCain path to 270L

If he wins all the Pollster.com dark red states, he will accrue 123 Electoral College votes. Add in the pink states and he is up to 142 EC votes. Add in all the yellow states and he is at 227.

Now we get into Obama states.

If McCain wins all those that Pollster.com has colored light blue, he is up to 266. But he needs more than that to win. In fact, he needs 270 or more Electoral College votes to win, as a 269-269 EC vote goes to the House, and only the delusional think the House would vote for a McCain win. And if it's 269-269, is there ANYONE who thinks the Senate as a whole would vote for Palin as Vice-President?

With 270 EC Votes needed to win the Presidency, that means that McCain needs one of the dark blue states that has more than 3 EC votes (at least an 8 point Pollster.com lead).

Which one will it be if he is to win?

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decided:

Zogby O+5

one point higher margin for Obama.

McCain +2 by Sunday ;-)

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thoughtful:

Howey/Gauge’s statewide survey included 600 likely voters on Oct. 23-24 with a +/- 4.1 percent margin of error. The 3rd CD survey occurred on the same dates with 300 likely voters and a +/- 5.7 percent margin. The statewide survey included an 8 percent African-American sample, 23 percent Catholic, 42 percent Protestant, 14 percent Baptist or Bible church, and the party split was 47 percent total Republican, 41 percent total Democrat. Completely “independent” stood at 11 percent while 14 percent considered themselves “independent Democrat” and 14 percent “independent Republican.”


Methodology and model, anyone?

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Mike In Maryland:

Thougtful,

The party split looks to be about correct (been many years since I've lived in Indiana, but it's always been a majority R state).

Religious split is feasible, but I'd be interested in how HG defines 'Baptist' - does that mean SBC congregations, or all Baptists including SBC and all other Baptist (including AA Baptist) congregations?

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JerryTheAngel:

More than twelve million voters have already cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to one estimate, and new data from the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows these voters breaking Democratic by a wide margin.


Among those who said they have already voted at an early voting location or sent in an absentee ballot, Barack Obama picked up 60 percent of the vote in the new poll to John McCain's 39 percent.

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