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IN: McCain 47, Obama 47 (Downs-10/27-30)

Topics: PHome

Mike Downs Center / SurveyUSA
10/27-30/08, 900 LV, 3.5%
Mode: IVR

Indiana
McCain 47, Obama 47, Barr 2
Gov: Daniels (R-i) 55, Long Thompson (D) 38, Horning (L) 4

 

Comments
Trosen:

Wow.. IN and NC will be fun to watch on election night.

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Northeastern Republican:

oddly enough two of the earliest closing states will be some of the most interesting to watch (virginia and indiana) actually, georgia also so three states. i think north carolina closes in the following hour.

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jswarren:

I predict the networks will all conspire to not call VA until 9pm no matter what the results are. They want to hold the audience and minimize the damage to downballot races in the central & mountain timezones. Unfortunately, I'm afraid the Pacific timezone is just too late to ask the networks to hold off for.

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JCK:

I'm guessing IN will not be called at exactly 7PM.

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mysticlaker:

I can't believe it 4 days to election day, and democrats are fighting for Indiana...Who would have guessed this on Aug 29 (the day of the Palin pick)?

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hou04:

I think IN polls close at 6pm ET? Correct me if I am wrong.

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SoCal_Rules:

If Indiana (a state Bush won by 21 points in 2004) is declared as "too close to call" by the news networks when its polls close at 6:00PM ET, it will a signal of things to come for the night.....

Mainly, it's probably gonna be a long night for the GOP and a historic night for Obama-Biden and the Democrats.

KEEP THE PETAL TO THE METAL!!!
OBAMA-BIDEN 2008!!!!

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axt113:

This election is going to give me an ulcer, too many states are close

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JCK:
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Nor Cal Train:

As an Obama fan out in CA, we don't get to see much action other than the Governor races and propositions. While seeing all of these Red states teetering will be very fun to watch on Tuesday and I VERY VERY nervous about Pennsylvania. There have been 2 polls in 2 days, with large samplings, showing the race narrow. All of these small states will be for nothing if he can't hold PA's 21 votes. I hope he heads back there and sends the Clinton's to shore up the western half of the state before Tuesday.

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Dewey1858:

What are the odds that Virginia polls are kept open late?

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UnitedAmericaIsImpossible:

Just an update from a swing state...Obama's rally in Columbia, Missouri last night was a huge success. This state is going to be CLOSE, but if Obama turns out the college students in large numbers he can pull it off (barring any infamous young voter suppression efforts that Boone County, MO is well known for). I have never heard younger voters this determined to make a difference. Let's hope they stick to it.

I can't tell you enough about how well the Obama ground game is organized here. They're in it to win it. McCain has not bothered to field an office here. My gut says that Missouri will turn blue, but it will be VERY VERY tight.

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Batony:

Wow...if these polls are accurate, this really says something about the McCain campaign.

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BLeigh82:

Indiana couldn't be any closer. I wonder if McCain will stop by in the next couple of days or not. I believe that Palin has been there a handful of times. Obama will be in Highland, IN tonight and Biden will be there one more time as well I believe.

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Isher:

Mizzou's gonna have the longest poll waits ever.

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Nor Cal Train:

I hope Obama is not concerned because they "know" something. May they have internals that show the early turn out has been hugely successful for them. Who knows, but I agree with axt113, I'm getting an ulcer from this election.

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Batony:

I don't think in the end, NC, IN or MO turn blue. But the fact that they are this close, if the polls are correct is amazing.

Anyone know Obama's schedule for the weekend?

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WebToe:

NorCal,

How NorCal are you? My sister lives north of Willets. Living in MA it is almost the same thing regarding coverage, unless we catch a stray NH commercial.

Re: PA - I cannot believe, at this late in the process, that the Campaign is going to make the mistake of closing the deal in PA. This has been the best run campaign I have seen, and is on the verge of ending on a BIG note!!

4 More Days!!!

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muckinello:

@Nor Cal Train
As a fellow Dem in the state of PA I am worried as well but I believe that we have the state. Gore and Kerry carried it and Dems outregistered Republicans by over 250,000 since then. I personally know of many that switched from indie to Dem to vote in the primaries (mostly to support Obama).
Also, check this article by Nate at 538 for some insight on the "tight" polls.
I will make sure to keep PA blue if you make sure to turn down prop. 8
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1030.html

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Zeidan:

I predict a McCain win for this state. Obama never really held a commanding lead in this state for longer than a week, and has been more statistically tied on average than really ahead.

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MaxMBJ:

As a Hoosier living in a red area, I can confirm that Repubs have slipped since 2004. But not enough to give it to Obama.

One barometer I have is the local high school, a very conservative school. In past elections in the school paper the Repubs got 90% usually. This year it's in the 80's. Not 80, but 80's. I'd say it's a slippage of 5 - 6 points, not enough for Obama to overcome.

The polls do show a close race but the feeling here is McCain will prevail.

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Nor Cal Train:

I'll take you up on that offer muckinello. Hold PA for all of us and there will be even bigger changes with regard to Prop 8 on a national level. The polls are tightening over here for the measure. I'm fron the Sacramento area and if you were to see the signs people are holding up on street corners it would make you sick. Did you know the Prop 8 = Parental Rights? That's the new tag line being pushed by the Mormon Church out here. We (opponents) are still polling 49-44, small but significant lead. Cross your fingers and hope the Change we've all be believing in for the past two years, is finally upon us.

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Hoosier:

One thing to remember about closing times is that we have two time zones here in Indiana. Most of the state is on Eastern Time, but the Northwest Corner (where Obama will do the best) is on Central time, so polls there will not close until 7pm Eastern time.

As a Hoosier, I'm so used to Indiana turning red within minutes of the polls closing. It is going to be TIGHT here this year, but Obama may pull it out. The Obama camapaign has the only real ground game in the sate, McCain has not been here since July, and we've had some big job losses in the RV industry (which is concentrated in very Republican NE indiana).

As I said yesterday, a good "canary in the coal mine" is Congressman Mark Souder in Indiana's 3rd District. This NE Indiana district is SOLID Republican and Souder hasn't done anything dumb or crazy to put his seat in jeopardy. Yet, Souder is locked in a tight battle with Mike Montagano, a fist-time candidate who was seen as a sacrificial lamb just about a month ago. Now, both of the national parties are pouring money into this seat to hold/win it. All polls in this district will close at 6pm Eastern time. If Souder goes down quickly, epect a Democratic tidal wave.

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BlixaCat:

Speaking of NC, did you notice that the early voting is up to 58% of the 2004 total? And of those voters, it's running 52 D to 29 R.

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MaxMBJ:

Hoosier,

You're right about Souder. If he loses, that's not good news for the Repubs. But it looks like he's starting to pull away a bit. Latest polls and his internals are showing him up by as much as 9. (Or maybe more, can't recall them all.)

I live in Souder's district. My gut feeling is that he will win fairly handily. I'm basing that partly on lawn signs which are way in his favor. Also, some of his TV ads are good, even funny.

To me, the big question about this election is will voters who are slightly Democrat and/or leaning Obama actually punch the card for him? It really is the big question and it's not about race. It's about the cloud of uncertainty around him.

We'll know soon enough.

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mrut:

I hope the networks hold off declaring until the polls are closed in Pacific Time. This is a big day. Couldn't we all just accept this as a special enough occasion to stay up late and let the kids stay up with us? Being up until midnight watching election results is worth losing half a day in school. They should start school at noon after Election Day.

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Nor Cal Train:

I totally agree mrut. I have a tradition of taking Wed off from work so I can stay up as late as necessary to watch all the results. I've got a 24pack of Coronas ready for Tuesday night. :)

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muckinello:

Ok.. time to get some wishes in the proper order:
1. Obama president
2. 60 seats in the senate. Very difficult, if not, here are my priorities:
3. Martin in GA Senate. Would LOVE to get rid of Chambliss and his despicable attack on Max Cleland
4. Franken in MN Senate.
5. Hagan in NC Senate
6. Tinkelberg in MN06. Would be great to see Michelle Bachmann in the dust!
7. ND abortion bad defeated and CA prop.8 defeated!
8. Lunsford in KY Senate. THIS WOULD BE THE ICING ON THE CAKE!

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PJ_FFM:

"Tied by the weekend" *check*
"Surging candidate ahead on election day" hmmmmmm... *evilgrin*

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lee:

Young voter suppression in Boone County? I have to say, in my time there I never had anything but good experiences with the local county clerk who is VERY student friendly. She always had at LEAST 3 polling places on campus for students and quite a few in the east campus area. She authorized a NON-PARTISAN student organization to collect/certify registrations to ease the process. She also helped get current students involved in the state's implementation of the Help America Vote Act including making sure the ID requirements didn't prevent students from voting.

Turnout in 2002 (when I was heavily involved) among young voters was also very high and I recall things going quite smoothly in 04, though, I was less involved at the time.

Have things changed?

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PJ_FFM:

Indiana polls close at "6 PM". BUT!

http://www.timetemperature.com/tzus/current_time_in_indiana.shtml

There are some counties in Indiana which are NOT ETZ, but CTZ!!!

Therefore, Indiana can't get called before *7* PM ET.

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coffeemana:


Lots of close polls, now. Louisiana is tightening, and could turn pink or yellow!

Loyola U poll (Oct 30) shows

M: 43
O: 40

South is not a sure bet for McCain...

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IndyTurnBlue:

I live in Indy and have no clue how all these people can have one simple thought about voting Republican. Our economy is hurt real bad. All these McCrap signs make me sick. Turn it blue this time!

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Mike In Maryland:

MaxMBJ
"I live in Souder's district."

and

"One barometer I have is the local high school, a very conservative school."

Kosciusko County? Historically the reddest of the red counties in the red state of Indiana?

Is the high school Warsaw?

I grew up in Noble County, and got sick of the idiotic spewing of every talking point the Repukes threw out in that county. I can't imagine how sick the garbage is in Kosciusko.

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muckinello,

I couldn't agree more!
But I would add another wish:
Gregoire(D) over Rossi(R) for Gov in Washington.
This race is neck and neck, and Rossi's running adds here showing child molesters lurking around, stalking kids and blaming the dems for it.


BTW, McCain has finally started to unleash the Rev. Wright vids. We all knew it was coming. The full onslaught of negative desperation is finally here.

Get ready!

Forget the national polls.

IN - Tied
FLA - Within moe
MO - Tied
NM - Tied
NC - Tied
OH - Close

You know the polls are going to tighten, but is there enough time?

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shirefox:

Barr could make the difference in IN.

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shirefox:

Nor Cal Train,
Are you saying Prop 8 is 49-44 against? Great. It was tied, wasn't it?

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MaxMBJ:

MikeinMaryland:

You're gettin' warm. But I treasure my anonymity so that's as far as I'm going.

Barr could make a difference in Indiana but again, this is a state that is conservative more than Republican. Even the metropolitan areas -- Indy, Ft Wayne, Evansville -- are more conservative people than any East Coast city. The exception would be Gary which is very close to Chicago.

Anyway, I see a McCain win here by single digits but as much as 8 or 9. The letters to the editor in the local papers are pretty much going 50/50 but they usually do. I guess it's because those who really like Obama are really motivated.

This is my take on the entire election: Obama's supporters are rabid but I'm not sure they're as wide as they are deep. The huge crowds would indicate otherwise, I suppose, but even that seems a sign of fervor. And there's the celebrity factor.

I'm really anxious for Tuesday to come to see if my instincts are right about all this.

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