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IN: Obama 46, McCain 45 (Selzer-10/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Indianapolis Star / Selzer & Co
10/26-28/08; 606 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Indiana
Obama 46, McCain 45

 

Comments
DTM:

As I noted elsewhere, for perspective I think it is worth remembering that Bush won Indiana by 21 over Kerry.

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BOOMFAIL:

There is going to be A LOT of BLUE on Tuesday!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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Viperlord:

IN is going to be close. I think it will probably just barely go McSlime in the end, but it will be VERY close.

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hirshnoc:

Bad news for McNasty...still within the MOE but still bad news.....

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hirshnoc:

I agree. Probably the new Missouri

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drdr:

Previous Selzer poll Obama 47 McCain 44.

IN is a toss-up and people are seriously worried about PA? Seriously?

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Louis:

Seltzer has a reputation as one of the top pollsters out there so it looks intresting. Souder's congressional seat is alo in danger.

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purplevoter:

Great news but it will be for naught (starting to hate that word) if he doesn't get 50% +1. Need to keep pushing.

I just finished donating more money. Make sure everyone votes.

And don't be influenced by does cynics that try to demonize Obama.

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Iowa City:

The previous Selzer poll in Indiana six weeks ago had Obama +3. Just an MOE different.

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RaleighNC:

LOL

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mac7396:

LANDSLIDE

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Great American:

I think grumpy McNasty must be ready to blow a gasket by now. These polls are just not moving in his direction.

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PortlandRocks:

I'm sitting here thinking about '04. We are blogging about how close and worried we are about a poll in I N D I A N A. Enough said.:) This is NOT '04! (Traditional voter model) LOL

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DTM:

As the linked article explains, it looks like Indiana is coming down to a classic turnout battle. I actually like Obama's chances in that case, but we shall see.

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The_Huntsman:

In the end, enough undecideds will break for McCain to give him this state. IN is and always has been a huge stretch for Obama.

But then again, it's the mere fact that McCain had to defend IN that makes it relevant.

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purplevoter:

Excellent point drdr. However, I do travel and do business in PA and it is a different mix. Also, some of the Indiana markets share media with Chicago. I would not let up on PA. Send Joe the Senator, Hillary and the rest of the PA Democrats.

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mysticlaker:

when obama wins indiana i will light my cigar.

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DecaturMark:

Hey Boom:

On the GWU thread this morning Mark Blumenthal is asking for you to explain some of your comments from yesterday.

You might want to respond, while you have the opportunity.

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zoot:

Boomer, this has to be wrong. Liberal conspiracy, Selzer in the pocket of the Left, sampling heavily tilted towards homeless and welfare queens, isn't that so? Boomer? Help us out, Boomer - please?

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RussTC3:

Just for a little more perspective, a SurveyUSA poll from 2004 (10/27-29) had Bush up by 19 points (58/39).

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adocarbog:

"We got them right where we want them, my friends" John McCain

In the White House?!?!?!

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BLeigh82:

A while back 538.com had a post on Seltzer...basis was that Seltzer believes most pollsters are highly undervaluing African-American and youth turnout in this election cycle.

Should be intersting to see if she is right or not.

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PortlandRocks:

Here is the state of the Battle Ground Race. Again, look at averages, don't sweat one poll. We are in GREAT shape. Let me put it this way. If McCain wins it would be the largest polling collapse in US History and turn the pundit and polling world upsidedown. I doubt that will happen.

RCP AVERAGES:

Florida 48.6 45.1 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 49.0 46.8 Obama +2.2
Virginia 51.0 43.4 Obama +7.6
Ohio 49.4 43.8 Obama +5.6
Missouri 48.0 47.8 Obama +0.2
Colorado 51.5 44.3 Obama +7.2
Nevada 50.4 43.0 Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3
Pennsylvania (21) 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5
Iowa (7) 52.2 40.8 Obama +11.4
New Hampshire (4) 52.6 40.2 Obama +12.4
NORTH DAKOTA 43.0 44.6 Obama +1.6 (OCT)

Indiana (11) 45.8 47.3 McCain +1.5
Montana (3) 44.4 47.8 McCain +3.4
Georgia (15) 45.8 50.0 McCain +4.2
Arizona (10) 44.2 49.4 McCain +5.2

RCP Electoral Count 311 142 Obama +169
No Toss Up States 364 174 Obama +190

How could ANYONE not, at least, be happy with the way this campaign has gone with 3 business days to go? Relax folks:)

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RS:

The poll internals are here:
http://www.wthr.com/global/Story.asp?s=9262976

I think Selzer's good based on her record, but the internals are a little mystifying - Obama ahead among men but lagging among women, and his share of the African-American vote dropped from 94% (Sept) to 82% (Oct)?
I wonder if this is Selzer's 20th poll for the demographic splits - you know, within MOE 19 times out of 20? :-)

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drdr:

Purplevoter

I am not suggesting that Obama should stop campaigning in PA. McCain is advertising and campaigning in PA and the Democrats need to balance that. There is not early voting in PA and things could still shift in the final week.

I am just pointing out that an election in which IN actually remains a toss-up through election day is not an election which John McCain will win.

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Viperlord:

Southern angler's busy spewing his usual propaganda in the Hotline thread.

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hou04:

Guys, you HAVE TO see this... McCain this morning:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Wheres_Joe.html?showall

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purplevoter:

drdr,
agreed.

Don't know about you all, but I cant wail till about 11PM, Tuesday...

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billwy:

Does anyone here live in Indiana? I'm thinking this state might be an interestng bellweather in the Eastern Time Zone. The reason being, I imagine that in addition to the NW part of the state being near Chicago, a large part of the closeness of this race comes form places like southbend. If it is super close here when polls close, that may indicate that the youth really did turn out in this election...if it isn't maybe the correct pollsters will have been something between the traditional model and the "Expanded" model.

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purplevoter:

Sad to see an American hero being used by a moron like Joe the Plumber.

McCain turned this election into a reality show!
Sad. With so many big problems, he truly turned the whole process into a joke.

Joe is too busy cashing in...

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fox:

Friends don't let friends vote republican.

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zealotus:

If they can't call IN quickly, then Obama supporters can breathe a little easier.

Selzer has had a D lean of a couple points (which may be justified if her turnout estimates are right), so this poll does not make me happy.

I'm guessing 60% chance of McCain taking Indiana, but as I said, if it's too close to call when the polls close, look for good news from everywhere else.

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NHBlue:

McCain's campaign: It's like watching a bad middle school theatrical where the kids forget their lines and cues, and none of them can sing. Amateurs.

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shamrock_cat:

I'm in IN, South Bend area, and have been actively working for the Obama campaign. IN is going to be very, very close -- turnout will be key. There's no way they'll be able to make a call when the polls close. My personal goal all along has been to make IN a battleground such that McCain would have to spend time and money here -- we have succeeded in doing that! I will be absolutely over the moon if we can actually go BLUE this year. The fact that it is not a foregone conclusion that it will be red is a victory in and of itself and a reality that portends extremely well for Obama at the national level.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@NHBlue
Yeah, they are amatuers. Steve Schmidt is a moron. Schmidt being trained by Rove you would think he would be more than a 1 dimensional thinker but i wonder if this guy had any real experience before this. These tactics worked in 2000, 2004 and it amazes me they worked.

Nicole Wallace, a McCain/Palin spokesperson has gotten thrown under the bus after being outted as the person who spent 150,000 on clothes for Palin....in public. People thought watching the Clinton Show...the McCain-Palin Saga is even worse.

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Zeidan:

Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina are definitely interesting to watch. While of course he has a shot, I still see a McCain win in Indiana and Missouri, but North Carolina is a bit more shady. It all comes down to turnout.

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shamrock_cat:

McCain will definitely NOT take all 3 and without all 3 he's done. It would be sublime if Obama could take 2 of 3 or run the table. We'll have to wait and see. I agree - Turnout, Baby, Turnout!

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Zeidan:

Well, I think North Carolina will be the hardest for McCain to hold on to just because Obama has the demographic necessary for a squeaker, but it's harder to judge Indiana and Missouri, since Indiana's polls have reaaaaally gone back and forth, and Missouri has trended Republican for the past couple of years.

I know that democrats are more likely to turn out than in past elections, but the key is making sure that 90%+ of African Americans and young voters get out there. Without those two groups he won't win NC.

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DTM:

The thing about Indiana and Missouri that may compensate for less favorable demographics is that going back to his Senate campaign in Illinois, and then through the Iowa Caucus and on through the primaries, Obama has proven surprisingly adept at campaigning in rural Midwestern areas--not that he wins, but he does well enough that it allows his big margins in cities to win out statewide. Basically, I think an underrated aspect of his appeal is his ability to talk to people in such communities in a way they find familiar and thus acceptable, something he learned in part from the late Paul Simon. He also relies heavily on vouching from local people, sometimes political figures but also local cultural icons (my favorite example is his radio ad endorsement from the Iowa State Fair butter sculpture queen Duffy Lyon).

Now there is no knowing if that will happen to a sufficient degree in these states this year, but that is why they are even close. And for what it is worth, his "infomercial" last night was a pretty good example of all these techniques, from the way he talked to the inclusion of local people (not just local politicians) in the ad.

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Hoosier:

@shamrock_cat:

I'm also in the South Bend area! Cool!

I agree about this being simply a question of turn-out. The Obama campaign in Indiana is running like finely-tuned engine while McSlime has been clunking along. Obama has almost 30 offices in Indiana, McSlime has 1.

One early clue for folks might be the Third Congressional seat. This is HEAVY Republican and incumbent Mark Souder hasn't really done anything scandalous or kooky, yet he's locked in a tight-battle with Mike Montagano, a first-time candidate. Both parties are spending heavily to win/hold this seat.

I'm thinking that mark Souder is our "canary in the coal mine". If Souder falls early, Indiana will probably go Obama and MANY other Republcian seats in Congress will also fall. If a fairly bland Republican can't hold a seat in a solid Republican district, we're talking a wholesale slaughter at the polls.

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MileHigh:

He's going to win all 3. NC is done in thanks to early voting; something very special would have to happen for McCain. MO and IN will be close, but it is time. Don't be surprised to see GA break Obama with an assist from early voting. That would be my long shot pick on Intrade. 393 EV if GA goes blue.

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thoughtful:

Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina add Georgia - Obama takes all 4 states on his way to an historic landslide of 390+ EVs on the GOTV.

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bclintonk:

The Obama campaign really wants Indiana and will make it close, but Indiana's photo ID requirement will work against them, making it much easier for the Rs to suppress voter turnout. Lots of low-income folks, including a lot of African-Americans, don't have drivers licenses or other government IDs, and a lot of students don't have an ID showing their current (college) address, meaning they'll need to go home or vote absentee. This is the biggest election theft going: thanks to Republican voter suppression efforts, thousands, possibly tens of thousands of legitimate citizens will be denied their franchise for each unqualified person who is kept from fraudulently voting.

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shamrock_cat:

Do people not realize you can get an Indiana state-issued photo ID free of charge for purposes of voting? My mom doesn't drive anymore and I took her to get one - very simple, really. Yes, this makes it "less convenient" but it really shouldn't be an impediment to voting -- an ID is something everyone should have for this and many other purposes. We need ID for boarding an airplane, cashing a check, buying alcohol, etc. why not to establish we are eligible to vote? I just fail to see how this really disenfranchises anyone -- if someone needs a ride to the License Branch, they only need to call a campaign office and I'm sure they'd find someone quickly who would give them a ride.

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shamrock_cat:

@bclintonk:

Do people not realize you can get an Indiana state-issued photo ID free of charge for purposes of voting? My mom doesn't drive anymore and I took her to get one - very simple, really. Yes, this makes it "less convenient" but it really shouldn't be an impediment to voting -- an ID is something everyone should have for this and many other purposes. We need ID for boarding an airplane, cashing a check, buying alcohol, etc. why not to establish we are eligible to vote? I just fail to see how this really disenfranchises anyone -- if someone needs a ride to the License Branch, they only need to call a campaign office and I'm sure they'd find someone quickly who would give them a ride.

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