Indianapolis Star / Selzer & Co
9/14-16/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 47, McCain 44, Barr 2, Nader 1
I am speechless!
This is a state Bush won by a margin of +21 in 2004 and +16 in 2000
People are really starting to understand that McPalin = For more years of Bush
Collapse of Wall Street = Collapse of McPalin
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:33 AM
If I see a couple more like this then I will be convinced.
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:36 AM
Make sense, I agree with you, that mightn't be a utter shift yet but still this is a state Bush won by +21 4 years ago
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:41 AM
Agreed. Even if this an outlier, it is still a very bad sign for McCain.
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:52 AM
Also back to 2004 polls, starting from April all of them have Bush leading by double digit
link : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/in_polls.html
Nevertheless, this year none of them have McCain leading by double digit and 4 of them have Obama leading
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:59 AM
I think that this is almost 99% attributable to the long drawn-out primary, where Obama and Clinton actually contested Indiana.
A WaPo article out today says 500,000 new voters have been registered in Indiana SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR!! That is absolutely, absurdly incredible.
That may be why the polls are so close. Here's the article:
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:23 AM
So will Indiana now go yellow on the map?
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:26 AM
Stop the presses! I would make one caveat to this poll--Selzer showed Obama ahead of Clinton in the primary. If you look at the turnout in the Democratic primary (I think that it was well over one million people), you would have to come to the conclusion that the Democrats have a real shot in this state. I would still put McCain ahead by 3-5 points, though.
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:27 AM
Wow. Watching McCain slide to where he belongs is making me smiles!:)
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:28 AM
I just cannot believe that my blood-red state is suddenly trending to Obama. Obama has a very impressive field organization here, but I think the Pubs will come home to roost by Election Day.
In the end, I'll say McCain by 5 or 6
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:31 AM
Also, Nader did not qualify for the Indiana ballot. The only Third Party candidate who did was Bob Barr. I wish they would poll accordingly.
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:32 AM
If and only if Obama rings an Economic message to Indiana will he remotely have a chance.
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:33 AM
Where are the internals?
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:48 AM
Why would Indiana vote McCain this year? Because of their HIGH TECH BOOMING economy?
Signed - Snob in WA State where liberals run things and our economy is on fire.
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:49 AM
Guys remember this polling company is the one of the most respected in the business!
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:51 AM
It's the economy in the cities and ag issues in the rural areas. McCain voted against the farm bill and is against ethanol subsidies which have made a lot of farmers and other rural investors in the Corn Belt pretty prosperous. He just doesn't get this part of the country---"out of touch," as Obama keeps saying. That's what accounts for Obama's steady lead in Iowa, but it also matters in Indiana.
While I sincerely hope this poll is true the only other poll from Selzer-Star poll in April had Obama up by 8 points while all other polls from that time had McCain up by similar margins, take it with a grain of salt.
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:58 AM
This just went yellow on the big map.
Posted on September 18, 2008 12:11 PM
Don't forget: parts of Indiana are roped into the Chicago media market.
This poll is the second new IN poll that shows the race within the margin of error there (CNN's had McCain up 5). Nader is not on the ballot in IN; Barr is. This combination should help Obama.
The poll's narrative says that Obama leads in the state despite trailing in the NW region. This region should ultimately go for Obama, as it has a large African-American population and is in the Chicago media market.
Also, Obama is polling especially well in the Midwest. Today's Research 2000 tracker has him up 11 in this region. See:
The dangerous game McCain is playing is ignoring IN. Obama has more of a ground game there, has visited the state numerous times, and has the airwaves to himself there. See:
Undecideds may feel neglected by McCain and break for Obama.
Posted on September 18, 2008 12:18 PM
This is a huge suprise but I suspect the actual numbers are not quite so rosy for Obama. Despite of that this means that Indiana is in play and that is definately not something that McCain wants to hear. There's still an overwhelming chance that the state goes red come election day but if McCain needs to spend even a dime in Indiana it's very bad for him.
Posted on September 18, 2008 12:21 PM
Obama supporter's logic is almost laughable. If Mccain is ahead, then that poll is an outlier. But if Obama is ahead then Mccain is doomed. LMAO
Posted on September 18, 2008 12:29 PM
The opposite is true too Adam_Il. But grouping every Obama supporter into a general consensus will cause problems with your own logic frankly.
Posted on September 18, 2008 12:55 PM
Any sort of close race in Indiana isn't good for McCain nationally... the fact the state polls are indicating it doesn't bode well. Kudos for Obama's ground game there.
Jacob S. indicates in his comment that Selzer showed Obama ahead of Clinton in the polls up to the primary... Indiana IS a state where you can expect the Bradley effect to occur... it's black population is less then 10%.
Posted on September 18, 2008 1:08 PM
Posted on September 18, 2008 3:03 PM
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