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InsiderAdvantage: FL, GA, NV (9/30)

Topics: PHome

InsiderAdvantage
Mode: IVR

Florida 9/30, 532 LV, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 46

Georgia 9/30, 561 LV, 4%
McCain 50, Obama 44

Nevada 9/30, 437 LV, 5%
Obama 48, McCain 47

 

Comments
Commander_King:

Obama is closing in on Georgia.....

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freedomreigns:

For a while Obama campaign thought GA was something they could grab. What we see is that even at the hight of their "economic crisis jump", GA is not going to be turned. McCain will neigher lose GA, nor have to spend any resources there.

However, FL and Nevada have got to be making McCain campaign histerical. They CANNOT win without FL.

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BOOMFAIL:

Is this like the 10th poll with an Obama lead?? Paint it Blue!

Rasmussen has Obama up 7%!

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vmval1:

Ras Obama 51, McCain 44

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thoughtful:

Another FL and poll and another Obama lead.

Nevada really should not be this tight in view of the national polls, but looks like it may not be needed as Florida + Kerry states wins it early in the evening so to speak

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pbcrunch:

This is essentially confirming that the relatively large number from Quinn yesterday in FL was unto something.

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BOOMFAIL:

Florida that is... (blue)

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BLeigh82:

Georgia won't go blue. Obama doesn't need it anyways. Florida is the big one. McCain needs Florida to have a chance.

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mysticlaker:

Take them all.

My predication: in two weeks Sen Obama goes to Georgia and Texas.

ML

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zotz:

Rasmussen puts Obama up by 3% in NC!

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DecaturMark:

The thing about GA is that we also have a Senate race. Yesterday, the polls were showing Chambliss (R)i with a 2 point lead over Martin (D). And this was before Chambliss voted for the Financial Recovery bill and it has ticked a lot of GA conservatives. This seat should not even be in play and yet there is an outside shot at it going Dem. A strong showing by Obama in GA might be enough to steal this Senate seat.

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Inkan1969:

Early voting is going on in Georgia. If Obama's GOTV machine really is as good as they say, they could make a lot of progress in Georgia right now, at the very least to keep the gap small.

I think that's how Hillary won Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania had early voting right when Hillary was very strong in the polls. Over the weeks, Obama advertised hard and managed to close the gap in polls. But the Hillary voters had already voted early; there was nothing Obama could do about that. If Obama can get a lot of early votes right now when he's on top, there will be nothing that McCain can do about that.

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Robi:

Obama isn't going to waste his campaign resources in Georgia or Texas. If FL is polling in his favor, Obama will do whatever he can possible to take it. This election might not go until 5 AM after all...I'm still not convinced though...

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BOOMFAIL:

Rasmussen also has Obama up by 3 in NC, an increase from 2 last week.

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DaveAustralia:

Man this is really starting to get exciting. Obama can really start opening up this campaign if he can hold this momentum.

TX and GA to go blue!!!! Gobama!!!

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zotz:

This is going to be a tough day for the boomster. Let's go easy on him, poor guy!

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cmbat:

@socal-nick

Hey man, you around? Feeling better yet? Weren't you worried that McBush would be up around this time?

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DecaturMark:

@Inkan1969

"Early voting is going on in Georgia. If Obama's GOTV machine really is as good as they say, they could make a lot of progress in Georgia right now, at the very least to keep the gap small."

Very true. I am here in GA and the early turnout has been much heavier in traditionally Democratic areas than in Republican areas. This could be a good sign.

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pbcrunch:

TX/GA will not go blue unless McCain has a stroke and faints in front of a news camera. Obama could go there in a show of confidence, though, to rally the troops in Austin/Atlanta and help the Senate races or other down-ticket races.

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Commander_King:

Put 50 million in Georgia! Turn it blue :)

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thoughtful:

@Zotz

Agreed, we should go easy with all our Republican supporting friends, give as good as we get!

The Ras poll going to 51-44 is very bad news for them. The trackers will be average -8% for McCain, all the states polls we are seeing are being supported by the Nationals apart from Nevada!

Maybe Biden will turn up tonight as Hillary in drag! Even that wouldn't help the Repubs.

They are going to throw every thing at it in the coming week.

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jamesia:

Meanwhile... McCain is campaigning in Colorado today, after a long day campaigning in Iowa yesterday. You'd think he'd be in Florida immediately after the polls yesterday...

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Trosen:

Obama might do a "fly by" in GA, but he's not going to spend any significant time there. He has had boots on the ground FL from long before the primaries ended. He is dead serious about turning FL. If there are any alterations in plans, expect Obama to spend more time in NC than previously planned. McCain will now have to work hard to hold what should be a very solid state. If MO, IN, and NV continue to trend Obama's way as well. McCain will have to campaign hard there too, when he was hoping to spend more time in more traditional toss-up states. He was always going to campain heavy in FL.

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zotz:

thoughtful-
We are on the verge of a massive Rep TV and radio attack on Obama. They are going to throw the toilet at him. They were bragging that they were going to make the swift boat ads look like a public service announcement. But they are too late. It would take something really big to reverse Obama's momentum.

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The_Huntsman:

Forget GA, although it would be gutsy for Obama to put resources there and probably would force McCain to respond to it.

But better to focus on MO, FL, VA, OH. Those are game-winners, period. Obama already has the EVs he needs to win. At this point he needs to build the margin to seal the deal.

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nomorerepubs:

I read an article yesterday that in early voting in Georgia there has been an agressive move by the African American population. Of registered voters in Georgia 29% are African American...but of the voters who have voted early 40% have been African American. We don't know who they are voting for but I think we can make a reasonable assumtion

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cinnamonape:

Consider two things. Insider Advantage last poll (9/10) showed McCain with a 50-42 lead over Obama. Now it's Obama 49-46. Obama +7, McCain -4...net change 11 for Obama in a bit under three weeks. And there is more...


“Sen. McCain lost ground since our last survey in Florida among males and independents. Adding to current concerns for Sen. McCain in this survey is that nearly 20% of
African-American respondents tell us they are voting for McCain. This is usual for our surveys of states in the Southeast and we almost always see the African-American column collapse to the Democrat by the last week of the race. This means that there is more potential downside for
McCain."

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cinnamonape:

Interesting trends in Georgia by this poll


InsiderAdvantage 9/30/08 561 LV 50 44 - - 4 2
InsiderAdvantage 9/17/08 503 LV 51 43 - - 5 2
InsiderAdvantage 9/10/08 506 LV 56 38 - - 4 2

-6 McCain +6 Obama in about 20 days. So can Obama get another -3/+3 in the next month...or greater GOTV????

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