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InsiderAdvantage: FL, NV, NC, WV

Topics: PHome

InsiderAdvantage
Mode: IVR

Florida 10/13, 612 LV, 3.8%
Obama 48, McCain 44

Nevada 10/13, 506 LV, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 46

North Carolina 10/13, 474 LV, 5%
Obama 48, McCain 46

West Virginia 10/13, 522 LV, 4%
McCain 49, Obama 47

 

Comments
chesirecat47:

I think we can definitely more than 474 LVs in NC at this stage in the game...

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cinnamonape:

The Florida resultys mesh with that "mysterious" Datamar poll. So perhaps it's good. North Carolina and Nevada showing close races-Obama edge in the latter! And yet another suggesting W. Virginia is very close....with Obama closing in.

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carl29:

BEFORE:

NC, InsiderAdvantage 08/19 - 08/19 614 LV
Obama 43 McCain 45 McCain +2

FL, InAdv/PollPosition 09/30 - 09/30 532 LV
Obama 49 McCain 46 Obama +3

NV, InAdv/PollPosition 10/06 - 10/06 468 LV
Obama 49 McCain 47 Obama +2

Looks pretty stable to me :-)!

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Trosen:

A little surprised at the NV spread.. I think it actually might be a bit wider for Obama. The NC and WV #s have to make the McCain campaign puke up their Wheaties. They can't be fighting tooth and nail for states like that at this stage of the game.

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NW Patrick:

I think we know that these #'s are hardening. McCain can't seem to break 45% in national polls. I love cement, it's fun to watch it set.

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RussTC3:

Comparison's to last polls:

Florida (9/30)
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 44 (46)
-1 Obama, -2 McCain = 1pt Swing for Obama

Nevada (10/6)
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 46 (47)
n/c Obama, -1 McCain = 1pt Swing for Obama

North Carolina (8/19)
Obama 48 (45)
McCain 46 (43)
+3 Obama, -3 McCain = 6pt Swing for Obama

West Virginia (no trendline)
McCain 49
Obama 47

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johncoz:

All small samples, but what is interesting is the absolute dearth of good news for McCain in any state polls.

Trosen is absolutely correct, the McFuddle campaign must be feeling really ill about NC and WV being in play three weeks out from the final ballot.

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Adam:

@RussTC3:

I think your math's off on the NC swing. Looks to me like +5 for Obama, +1 for McCain = +4 for Obama.

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GrampsMcCain:

johncoz:

When I was in college I had a professor with the last name of Kozlowicz. Where you ever a proffesor at UW-Whitewater?

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Another Mike:

Russ, I think you got your prior NC numbers reversed.

It was Obama 43-McCain 45. So, Obama +5 and McCain +1 = 4 point swing to Obama.

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raisethewhiteflag:

boomcrack?

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pbcrunch:

Seriously, West Virginia?!?!?!

The mere fact that state's in play after going comfortably for Bush in 2000/2004 says spades. The Obama +8 last week was too good to be true but there is definitely room for him to grow in that state; I think he should do an appearance with Byrd and/or Rockefeller.

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mysticlaker:

Hi Boom.

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political_junki:

Results are definitely good but sample size is too small...

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Mike A.:

Isn;t this a Republican pollster? Just curious. I thought it was.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Obama is basically 4/4 with these numbers. Having only a two point lead in WV at this point spells disaster for McCain.

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RussTC3:

Yeah you're right. My bad:

North Carolina (8/19)
Obama 48 (43)
McCain 46 (45)
+5 Obama, +1 McCain = 4pt Swing for Obama

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Trosen:

Everyone talks about the "Bradley effect," and in states like WV and NC, that's where you might see it come to fruition. I think the McCain campaign might have to count on that. They can't spend these last few weeks pounding the pavement in Asheville and Charleston.. can they?

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1magine:

Polls from this pollster show an R lean.

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johncoz:

Hi Gramps,

No, but it sounds like a nice gig :-)

On Florida, there has been no poll showing a McCain lead since SUSA on 9/28 with +1.

All part of the growing catastrophe facing the McFuddle campaign. Expect more rats to leave the sinking ship.

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billwy:

Not to be offensive but you guys are acting like these are good numbers for Obama. As I have stated before, I am a libertarian and will not vote for either of these candidates so I think I can be a somewhat impartial judge. Every single one of these polls is within the margin of error, save Florida. One great debate performance has the potential to swing everyone of these states back to McCain. It is shocking to me that Obama hasn't put these states further out of reach.
Now McCain should be sweating bullets over the 10 point lead in VA for OBama. That's a disaster.

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mrut:

@Trosen

Do you really think that West Virginians feel cowed into answering pollsters that they support Obama when they really support McCain? Why?

The break of the undecideds might be affected by prejudice, but we don't know if anti-Black feeling would trump anti-Republican rich party feeling.

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pbcrunch:

InsiderAdv has a Republican house effect according to 538 so, yes, these are very good numbers for Obama.

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DTM:

@billwy

You expected Obama to be putting states like NV, NC, and WV "out of reach"?

I think it should be noted that these states are not essential to Obama winning. In fact, they are not even essential to Obama winning by a healthy margin.

In that sense, the fact that MCCAIN hasn't put these states out of reach--let alone that Obama is actually LEADING in places like NV and NC--is indeed an indication that overall McCain is likely in a terrible position.

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Hoosier:

I don't see a "Bradley Effect" in WV. In the primary, these folks had no trouble saying that race was a factor in their decision to support Hillary. Why would they suddenly become coy now.

We have to remember that the economy in WV is huritng badly. In 00 and 04, Dumbya was able to use wedge cultural issues like guns, God,and gays to swing WV. Now, it is solely an economic election.

Id' be curious to see if this same trend is carrying over to KY, where much of the state is demographically similar to WV.

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Trosen:

billwy.. you kidding? These are states (except maybe FL) that McCain didn't think in a million years he'd be worried about defending in mid-October. And I can tell you they probably weren't part of any Obama plan to get to 270 either. For him it was always about VA, CO, and the Kerry states. The fact that they can now put McCain on the defensive in these states is astounding.

As to your point mrut, have you ever been to WV? I'm not a fan of stereotypes but they certainly live and breathe (and breed) in WV. I'm talking multitudes of gun-rack, pick up truck, rebel-flag laden white men. And for Obama to be even challenging there, it means he's get a LARGE # of those folks. That's truly unbelievable. It means the economic message is getting through, even to the most unlikely of demographics. Now my question is, do they go through with voting for Obama on election day? That's what I question.

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Trosen:

Look, let me clarify a little more on WV (and places like that). It's not just the race thing. It's his name. His background. The whole "east-coast liberal elitist" thing. This is the prime area where these ideas take hold and usually propel the Republican nominee to an easy win. If these # are for real, it doesn't just mean that McCain has run a crappy campaign isn't really likable it seems...it means Obama is "getting through" to large groups of people where that was thought impossible before this campaign season.

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mrut:

@Trosen

I have been to WV. I served in the Army in Kentucky. Those "gun-rack, pickup truck, rebel-flag-waving white men" don't lie to pollsters about who they are supporting. You imply that they are very backward; how is it that you think they are shy about saying they support McCain?

The polls reflect the support of these people and others. There's no reason to think that they feel inclined to lie that they support Obama if they don't.

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billwy:

@trosen:
I understand McCain did not see himself defending these states, don't get me wrong. But I mean we've been watching these states slip into the blue column for about three weeks. What I am saying is that it looks like the bleeding has stopped, and that McCain may be poised to strike back seeing that he is within striking distance is these key battlegrounds. I agree, the terrain looks terrible overall for Mccain.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@billwy

ok, lemme get this right. so obama is ahead in 4, what should be reliably gop states, within the MOE but thats an epic fail for the dems....even tho they dont NEED these states to win.....AND at the same time its a disaster for McC because he's behind 10 in VA. Dems dont even need W.V....or NV for that matter.

Its hard to give credit where it's due, eh?

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TJIRISH34:

Bill W the bottom line this late in the campaign is who is on offense and who is defending. McCain HAS to win Ohio and Florida. He can't spit them. He has to win all those states just to have a chance to win. McCain could win all those states and lose Ohio and still lose. As for debate... Media playing up this McCain's chance blah blah get ratings/interest in debate. Does anyone reading this post think after 2 debates: 1)McCain has the debating style/personality to blow Obama away in a debate? Or 2) Does anyone think Obama will make a major gaffe, making headlines and changing the course of the election? Especially when it's a debate on the economy. One more point. Agree/disagree with Obama's economic policy's. He has been pushing them out there for awhile. It's no coincidence McCain has been finally pushing some economic ideas/policy's at this late stage. The debate is tonite. BUT I will argue coming up with economic plans this late will lead them open to criticism. Example being the home mortgage buy plan harshly criticized by conservatives. After this election McCain will look back and regret he didn't go with his true political instincts. Rather than try to cater to the hard right base who dislike him anyway. Witness Rush's interview with Palin and Rush asking her about her political future. Rush already moving onto 2012. BTW Sarah should have said "Rush my political future is as VP." Just sad... McCain should have eaten Sarah's ass out in private over those comments. But McCain didn't because he is not controlling his campaign.

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mrut:

This is off-message, but when is Wisconsin going to turn dark blue?

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mrut:

@TJIrish

Back on-message. I agree that for someone who is supposed to be a great military leader, McCain has allowed himself to be led around by the committee running his campaign. He's not in control of his message, of his campaign, or his running mate. Often he seems not in control of himself.

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buskertype:

As I've always said, WV is at it's core a Democratic state. And not just in the old-school dixiecrat sense. We still have a strong labor movement, and most of the social conservatives are also working-class, meaning that they are very sensitive to economic issues. It'll be close there.
In many ways Kentucky is a much more solidly red state. Outside of the eastern mountains (which are similar to WV) you have a more Old-South money and caste-system type place. I don't expect to see much gain for Obama there. But who knows, with Indiana in play... they don't call it Kentuckiana for nothing.

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mrut:

@buskertype

I agree with you on the fundamentally Democratic nature of WV. I think Democrats make a huge mistake when they write off low-income white people as "ignorant rednecks" and inevitable Republicans. The attitude and the language is elitist, prejudiced, and self-defeating. Why write off any demographic that has voted and will vote Democratic? It's dumb.

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Opa:

Even if in the end McCain ends up winning WV and NC, the die has been cast. he has to spend too much time and energy fighting for states that should have been save Republican states. So he goes to those states but what about Florida and Ohio, not to mention Virginia. He needs all five states I mentioned if he has any hope of winning. Won't happen. Even than, Obama has at least 274 Electoral Votes. Too many for McCain.

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Dan:

Since when is Insider advantage a GOP-leaning poll? Last I checked they were Obama +6 in CO and VA. Add these numbers, which are in line with others, and I don't see any bias. Obama has enough if he holds onto NH and CO. I still think he gets less than 300.

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billwy:

@CTPonix4...
No, No, you have me all wrong. I give plenty of credit to the Obama campaign. It has been nearly flawless. What I'm saying though is Florida should already be dark blue, but as of today it has moved back to light blue. Obama had a huge organization in NV in the primaries and is barely in front. And whether McCain grabs WV by 1% or 10% he gets all the EV. I'm not lauding or dissing any campaign, I'm just saying this really is within striking distance for McCain if he has a good debate and runs a solid final three weeks...a big if.

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billwy:

BTW, I don't expect a major gaffe from Obama tonight. What I do expect is that McCain will go after him on issues. There are two major issues yet to be brought up in debate that can hurt Obama. His killing of the Born Alive Act and flip-flop on public financing.
It woudl be a risky move, but what does McCain have to lose? I would bring up media reports that Obama outspent me 8-1 in Virgina last week. How did he do it? Because he opted out of public financing after pledging to take it if his opponent did. I think if woudl an effective line of attack.

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JFactor:

I wish I hadn't sold my Obama WV stock a week ago when the first good polls were released after a break. I made good money but I could've stuck with them and made a whole lot of money more.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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newageblues:

Assuming Obama wins the Kerry states + Iowa and NM= 264 EV, McCain has to win everything else: CO, VA, NV, FL, OH, NC, MO, WV, and IN, since a tie would go to Obama in the House of Representatives.

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wagthedog1001:

Palin's BIGGEST LIE, " I was found innocent of any wrong-doing" or something like that, is just now hitting the polls we are seeing. That was on October 10.

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Mike In Maryland:

buskertype,

I was born and raised in North East Indiana. The term "Kentuckiana", as used in Indiana, has historically been reserved for that part of the state that is South of US 40 East of Indianapolis/US 36 West of Indy, excepting Bloomington and (mostly) Evansville.

It is a term that goes way back, prior to the Interstate Highway System, thus the reference to US 40/36, and not I-70.

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Instead of the usual 20% African American voter turnout I am hoping for a 30% or more African American voter turnout in States such as North Carolina. It is interesting that these polls don't include Bob Barr. He and Nader take more votes away from McCain then they do Obama.

Don't forget to vote. We can't get complacent just because the polls say that we (we the Democrats) are winning.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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LR:

It is not surprising that WV is starting to thaw toward Obama. I live in WV and the UMWA has put on a HUGE push for Obama, and have done everything in their power to broaden his appeal and make him seem less scary and more acceptable.

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