Archive:
Iowa
January 04, 2008
Gallup Poll's Editor in Chief Frank Newport looks at the Iowa entrance polls and asks whether Huckabee can "expand his base beyond highly religious Republicans?" "One finding that I'm sure is bothering Huckabee and his advisors this morning as they...January 04, 2008
[Margie Omero is President of Momentum Analysis, a Democratic polling firm based in Washington, DC.] Gender played a huge role in the Iowa caucuses yesterday...on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee's sizable lead over Mitt Romney came largely from women. According...January 04, 2008
Last week I took a look at how the poll trend estimates did in the 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucus. This morning we have two new data points for comparison. It has been a long day and night, so I...January 04, 2008
The entrance poll tables can be found at MSNBC here. The widths of the bars are proportional to the size of the groups. Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik....January 04, 2008
The entrance poll tables can be found at MSNBC here. The widths of the bars are proportional to the size of the groups. Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik....January 03, 2008
The last of the Iowa polls are in (I hope!). Today we got the final Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN tracker, ARG and an InsiderAdvantage (based on only the top 3 candidates and with 2nd choices reallocated.) See the posts at Pollster.com for...January 03, 2008
May 27th, October 14th and November 28th, 2007. Three landmark days for the Romney campaign in Iowa. From a distant third place in late 2006, Romney's Iowa efforts paid off on May 27th, when his estimated trend passed that...January 01, 2008
Happy New Year, and let's look at the endgame of Iowa polling. There have been seeming sharply contradictory polls since Christmas. Within the week ARG has had Romney up 9 over Huckabee while Research 2000 had Huckabee up 7...January 01, 2008
The much anticipated final poll from the Des Moines Register and Selzer & Company is out. They conducted interviews from December 27-30 with 800 likely Democratic caucus goers and 800 likely Republican caucus goers (those who say they "definitely or...December 29, 2007
The main impetus for our "Poll of Pollsters" (from which I posted the first results on Thursday) is the desire to find better objective criteria to help sort out pollsters. As both Charles and I review today in complementary posts...December 29, 2007
Given the way we are scrutinizing the final Iowa Caucus polls, this seems like a good time to take a look a the final pre-caucus polls from 2004 and 2000. One of the questions I get most frequently is which...December 28, 2007
Here are some additional details on the new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll in Iowa. The last Times/Bloomberg poll in September drew a sample of "caucus voters" that represented a much larger slice of the Iowa population than other polls. The...December 27, 2007
As we expected poll releases to be a little slower than usual this week, we decided to conduct one of our own. Last week, we invited about a hundred professional pollsters who work for the news media and political campaigns...December 26, 2007
(LARGE graphs-- you probably should click once or twice to see them at full resolution in order to see the details.) A new American Research Group (ARG) poll of Iowa has caused quite a debate in the comments at...December 26, 2007
Those of us with memories of the Apollo moon missions will remember those moments when the orbiting command module went around the so-called "dark side of the moon."** At that point the moon itself physically blocked broadcast signals, and despite...December 21, 2007
Notice the deluge of polls from Iowa and New Hampshire the last few days? It has been pretty hard to miss. We have seen six new Iowa polls in the last three days. Have we reached the point where, as...December 17, 2007
Last week's Disclosure Project report produced two good questions worthy of follow-up. Q: Given then almost complete lack of overlap in the way pollsters are defining likely caucus goers, how useful are poll averages? Good question. Averaging polls with differing...December 12, 2007
It is time -- actually long past time -- to summarize the returns from the Pollster.com "Disclosure Project." Back in September I declared my intent to request disclosure of key methodological details from pollsters doing surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire,...November 30, 2007
Today's new ARG poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa generally confirms the trend reported by other polls that we see in our Iowa chart. Barack Obama has been rising in recent weeks, while Hillary Clinton's support -- which had...November 28, 2007
Kathy Frankovic, the director of surveys for CBS News, devotes her latest column to a subject regular readers know well: The Iowa caucuses and the special challenges they create for pollsters. Frankovic has long been a central player in the...November 20, 2007
More on yesterday's new Iowa poll from ABC News and the Washington Post. Stu Rothenberg has a scathing review of the coverage on Political Wire: For years, Independent political analysts have been warning about reporters' tendencies to compare polls conducted...October 31, 2007
Five weeks ago, I kicked off our Disclosure Project by sending email messages to the pollsters that have released surveys in Iowa this year. I asked pollsters to identify their sample frame and their procedure for selecting likely voters...October 30, 2007
Sorry to blog one more time on the University of Iowa "Hawkeye" poll, but we want to clarify a few issues. Attentive readers may have noticed that we added the latest results from the Hawkeye poll to our Democratic...October 29, 2007
As promised, we have a new Iowa poll today. But be sure you read the fine print below. Let's start with the basic "poll update" that the estimable Eric Dienstfrey usually posts in this space. A new University of...October 25, 2007
I ran out of time yesterday, but want to amplify one more point from Mark Mellman's column about Iowa Caucus myths. Mellman writes: Myth 2: Iowa is all about organization. The theory here is simple but misleading: turnout is...October 24, 2007
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman has another must read in The Hill out this morning. Today's column reviews "three myths" regarding the Iowa caucuses. As the pollster for John Kerry's surprising, come-from-behind Iowa victory in 2004, ought to know (Mellman...October 16, 2007
A story in yesterday's Des Moines Register includes some additional results profiling the contact that the "likely caucus goers" they surveyed have had with the campaigns and the news media. Quoting the story: More than three-fourths have been contacted...October 12, 2007
An attentive reader noticed my reference yesterday to David Yepsen's report that "only 2 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers" surveyed in the recent Des Moines Register poll "are under age 25." My reader asked simply, "is 2% under 25...October 09, 2007
NBC's First Read said it best: No Iowa poll "gets (and deserves) more attention than the Des Moines Register poll by ace Iowa pollster Ann Selzer." That reputation was earned, in part, from their final 2004 pre-caucus survey, the...October 04, 2007
About that new ABC News/Washington Post poll released yesterday, the one showing Hillary Clinton winning the support of 53% of "leaned Democrats" nationally to 20% for Barack Obama, 13% for John Edwards and single digits for the other candidates....September 24, 2007
Over the last few months I have written a series of posts that examined the remarkably limited methodological information released about pre-election polls in the early presidential primary states (here, here and here, plus related items here). The gist...August 31, 2007
American Research Group (ARG) does a large amount of state primary polling and is therefore potentially influential in estimating candidate support because they contribute more polls than most other organizations. This week we saw conflicting results from ARG and...August 30, 2007
So today we have another installment in that pollster's nightmare known as the Iowa caucuses: Two new polls of "likely Democratic caucus goers" conducted over the last ten days that show very different results. The American Research Group (ARG)...August 22, 2007
I am still playing catch up on a bunch of interesting new surveys that all seemed to be released during my vacation last week. Next up: The survey of likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers sponsored by the anti-poverty ONE...August 09, 2007
A few additional notes on the poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers from the University of Iowa that we linked to earlier, based on information provided via email by U. of Iowa Assoc. Prof. David Redlawski: First, the survey used...August 01, 2007
The release of new surveys yesterday by the American Research Group (ARG) in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina has generated quite a bit of buzz as well as questions about ARG of the sort I alluded to yesterday...
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