Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

Iowa: Obama Trending Up

Topics: Iowa

Today's new ARG poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa generally confirms the trend reported by other polls that we see in our Iowa chart. Barack Obama has been rising in recent weeks, while Hillary Clinton's support -- which had been trending upward since the summer -- has mostly leveled off.

11-30%20IATopzDems.png

Keep in mind that the regression based trend lines on our charts are more conservative by design. As Professor Franklin frequently reminds us, that characteristic helps us isolate real changes while filtering out the short term "noise" from differences in methodology or simple sampling error.

Another lower tech way to try to see trends amidst the noise of differing methods is to do what I call "apples- to-apples" averages of comparable polls. In this case, ARG, Rasmussen and Strategic Vision have all fielded surveys in the last week or so, as well as earlier in the month. Whatever qualms we have about their methodologies, their surveys are done the same way each time and are at least helpful in spotting trends. And while the change is relatively small, they are essentially consistent: All three show small increases for Obama. On average, the three surveys indicate a three point gain for Obama and a one-point drop for Clinton.

11-30%20iowa.png

Has Barack Obama "moved ahead" of Hillary Clinton? Neither our chart, this "apples-to-apples" average nor any of the polls individually (if we consider sampling error), shows that yet, but the trend is clearly moving in his direction.

 

Comments
waka waka:

Woo hoo! I think my fellow Democrats are finally starting to wake up to how bad a Hillary nomination would be to our party and the country.

____________________

anyman:

Excellent news--if the Demos are smart and want to win it this time around, they'll dump Hillary and go with Obama or Edwards. Here's hoping they do, this country can ill afford another 4 years of another GOP President.

____________________

anyman:

Excellent news--if the Demos are smart and want to win it this time around, they'll dump Hillary and go with Obama or Edwards. Here's hoping they do, this country can ill afford another 4 years of another GOP President.

____________________

Willi:

how bad a Hillary nomination would be to our party and the country

I think you're being a bit too harsh about Hillary. I don't think she could beat Huckabee, because the contrast between someone like Huckabee who seems sincere and genuine and Hillary who can't seem to do anything without triangulation would just be too stark. I think Obama and/or Edwards would do better against Giuliani, because the hard-core wingnuts dislike Giuliani but the "anybody but Hillary" edge would help him a lot. Similarly for Mitt and the problem of getting GOP voters in the south to vote for a Mormon -- *unless* the alternative is Hillary.

But I think you're being too harsh about Hillary because even Hillary could beat Fred Thompson. So if she gets the nomination, the Democrats aren't doomed. Except that the anybody-but-Hillary vote will mean increased Repub turnout which hurts Democratic candidates in the house and senate races, but it's not total doom, as long as the GOP is stupid enough to nominate someone like Fred.

____________________

Willi:

how bad a Hillary nomination would be to our party and the country

I think you're being a bit too harsh about Hillary. I don't think she could beat Huckabee, because the contrast between someone like Huckabee who seems sincere and genuine and Hillary who can't seem to do anything without triangulation would just be too stark. I think Obama and/or Edwards would do better against Giuliani, because the hard-core wingnuts dislike Giuliani but the "anybody but Hillary" edge would help him a lot. Similarly for Mitt and the problem of getting GOP voters in the south to vote for a Mormon -- *unless* the alternative is Hillary.

But I think you're being too harsh about Hillary because even Hillary could beat Fred Thompson. So if she gets the nomination, the Democrats aren't doomed. Except that the anybody-but-Hillary vote will mean increased Repub turnout which hurts Democratic candidates in the house and senate races, but it's not total doom, as long as the GOP is stupid enough to nominate someone like Fred.

____________________

Greggie:

The Repubs will not nominate Fred Thompson. It will be Romney, or Rudy Mussolini, or Hick-abee. In that order of liklihood. And against any of those 3, Hillary will have big problems from the anybody-but-Hillary crowd (which, by the way, includes a ton of Rupub-leaning Independents who are probably ready to break Democratic after 8 years of Bush but will never vote for HRC).

____________________

DigDug:

Much of the "anybody-but-Hillary-crowd" is based on a caricature of her painted in the 90s. Many voters still think she's a left wing feminist, but thats not what she really is. And people dont learn that until they start paying closer attention to her. Actually many conservatives and moderates now feel like theyd rather have her president than any of the other democrats and even some republicans (like Hukabee for example).

I just dont see how Obama wins in the general election. Its such a huge gamble. Youve got a black liberal with two years national experience. I would bet on him losing by a large margin; if he won Id be shocked.

Edwards is different, he has potential, but he's a phoney. He use to be a moderate thats now the candidate of the far left. Im not sure what to make of his chances. I think Hillary though would either win or come close to winning. She's the safest option imo, and the option most likely to not hurt the parties chances down the ticket.

____________________

My first thought, when I heard news of the hostages in NH, was that somebody was protesting what Hillary stands for. Then I remembered Hillary stands for nothing but her own self-agrandizement. She is 100% fake, completely a product of triangulation, polls, and focus groups. Obama is a FAR superior choice.

____________________

jjmckim:

Would these polls capture any former Republicans who have recently switched? I ask because I saw a campaign event with Michelle Obama on CSPAN last night and a half dozen of the thirty or so folks at the library said they had recently switched parties to vote for Obama. I also remember seeing a poll earlier on that showed Obama in third place among Repbulicans at 7%.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR