Pollster.com: IVR Polls

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IVR Polls

March 27, 2008

The North Carolina Polling Roller Coaster

My NationalJournal.com column, on those wildly variant automated polls in North Carolina from Public Policy Polling (PPP), is now online. A few additional pieces of the story: First, I get a lot of email asking about the firms like PPP....

March 25, 2008

46-45 Plus or Minus 3

In case you missed our update, the most recent Gallup Daily result on the Democratic race shows a near dead-heat, with Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by a single percentage point margin not nearly large enough to attain statistical...

March 21, 2008

Wait a Week

Yesterday, Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn released a polling memo highlighting "some pretty big changes" in polling numbers that suggest "a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary." Later in the afternoon, ABC News correspondent Jake Tapper posted...

March 11, 2008

MS: Demographics and Vote by Race

For those who will be watching results from the Mississippi primary tonight, here is a breakdown of the demographics of recent surveys as well as the tabulations of vote by race. First, the demographic composition and overall results: Obviously, we...

March 07, 2008

SurveyUSA's 50 States with Sampling Error

There has been a considerable buzz over the last two days about the surveys released yesterday by SurveyUSA that test both McCain-Obama and McCain-Clinton trial-heat questions in all 50-states. Putting aside the concerns some have about SurveyUSA's automated methodology and...

February 26, 2008

Re: SurveyUSA Texas

A few comments on our post of the new SurveyUSA Texas poll raised two questions worthy of further discussion. First, reader s.b. notes: [W]ith an automated survey, if its in English, they aren't sampling spanish only or mostly spanish speakers....

February 21, 2008

More SurveyUSA Report Cards

Jay Leve and his crew at SurveyUSA have been busy this week. Following up on our discussion of their pollster report cards, SurveyUSA has a new and improved scorecard chart for individual states primaries (example for Florida Republicans with explanation...

December 31, 2007

"Please Stop Calling This Customer"

Washington Post polling director Jon Cohen reported an easily overlooked but important statistic yesterday, especially to anyone thinking about the reliability of the last round of Iowa polls. Using the Iowa tables here at pollster.com, he determined that public polls...

July 27, 2007

National GOP Contest: Why are ABC/Post & Rasmussen So Different?

A suggestion from alert reader and frequent commenter Andrew: I write to suggest that you analyze the huge discrepancy between the latest Rasmussen and Washington Post/ABC polls. I'm talking about the Republican nomination. Rasmussen says Thompson is up by...

July 19, 2007

Kentucky Governor: Undecided or Still Trying to Decide?

The latest automated SurveyUSA poll in the Kentucky Governor's race provides us with one of those classic conflicting poll stories that we just love here at Pollster.com, because it illustrates how small differences in methodology can have a profound...

April 25, 2007

NYT: New Limits on Automated Calls?

Today's New York Times gives prominent play to a story on bills working their way through various state legislatures across the country to crack down on prerecorded campaign calls: Nearly two-thirds of registered voters nationwide received the recorded telephone...

April 18, 2007

Rasmussen's Democrats -- Don't Tell Mama?

Both Mickey Kaus and Chris Bowers at MyDD noticed that Rasmussen Reports has been showing a much closer race on their automated national tracking of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary contest. Both floated different theories for that difference that...

October 30, 2006

Majority Watch Mashup

Picking up on the post from earlier tonight, the new Majority Watch surveys released today provide another strong indicator of recent trends, in this case regarding the race for the U.S. House. The partnership of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics...

October 23, 2006

Andrew Kohut Interview

Andrew Kohut is the President of the Pew Research Center and arguably the dean of the survey research profession. President of the Gallup Organization from 1979 to 1989, Kohut recently received the highest honor of the American Association of Public...

October 16, 2006

Handicapping the House: Part I

With the addition of House race data to Pollster.com, it is a good time to talk about the difficulty of measuring the status of the race to control Congress at the district level. Political polling is always subject to a...

October 13, 2006

Party ID: The 2006 Edition

We have devoted much attention recently to the flood of new national surveys showing small declines in the Bush job approval rating and modest Democratic gains on the generic House ballot question since mid-September. Until today, I had not looked...

October 12, 2006

Slate Update & the Majority Watch Surveys

Our Slate Election Scorecard update tonight focuses on two new polls in New Jersey that confirm recent gains by Bob Menendez and move the race to lean Democrat status. The overall scorecard tally now indicates 49 seats leaning or held...

October 12, 2006

Riehle: New Data from Majority Watch

This "Guest Pollster Corner" contribution comes from Thomas Riehle, a Partner of RT Strategies Editor's note: In a 2:30 p.m. press conference, Riehle announced that when the sum up results of the 63 surveys they have conducted since August and...

October 07, 2006

SurveyUSA Tracks Views on Hastert

Last night, Josh Marshall linked to a new national automated poll from SurveyUSA asking whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign: Based on what you know right now, do you think Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert should remain in his...

October 04, 2006

Connecticut: More House Effects

Our Slate Senate Scorecard update for tonight focuses on a new Rasmussen poll in Connecticut that shows Joe Lieberman leading Democratic nominee Ned Lamont by ten points (50% to 40%). Tracking the Connecticut Senate race especially challenging because the most...

October 04, 2006

Tennessee Polls: Not Created Equal

Instapundit Glenn Reynolds asked a good question yesterday: THE LATEST POLL shows a Ford-Corker dead heat. Hmm. Just yesterday we had one with Ford up by 5; not long before that there was one with Corker up by 5. Is...

September 28, 2006

IVR & Internet: How Reliable?

If one story is more important than all others this year--to those of us who obsess over political polls--it is the proliferation of surveys using non-traditional methodologies, such as surveys conducted over the Internet and automated polls that use a...

September 11, 2006

Comparing Pollsters in Virginia

Our daily Slate Scorecard update posted earlier this evening focuses on the new poll from Mason-Dixon that shows a narrowing race in the Virginia Senate pitting incumbent Republican George Allen against Democratic challenger Jim Webb. We also discuss why...

September 07, 2006

About those Majority Watch Congressional District Polls...

The big news yesterday for true political junkies was the release of separate polls conducted simultaneously in 27 of the most competitive districts nationwide (with surveys in three more districts ongoing) using an automated recorded voice rather than live interviewers....

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