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Pennsylvania Pollster Comparison Update


Judge for yourself.

Cross posted at PoliticalArithmetik.com. See also previous pollster comparison post for Pennsylvania.

 

Comments
Fourth:

I find it interesting that every pollster moved towards the consensus (C+7) with their latest release except for PPP, which remained at a flat O+3. I also find it interesting that Quinnipiac pretty much IS the trend line, save for that late Feb release when Obama was riding high in a lot of polls from winning 11 in a row.

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cinnamonape:

Yes it is interesting. I pointed out earlier that SUSA often time lagged behind other polls, which overshot. One has to be careful about which polls claim to "predict" final results, as they often are at wide variance until their final poll. But SUSA's been pretty accurate, outside of a few Southern states where all pollsters underpredicted Obama's turnout. In any case, the SUSA "convergence" has shown up yet again.

I wonder if some of the other polls still unreported will overshoot yet again. But unlike many of the other polls there does seem to be a convergence in numbers.

All-in-all I don't think this isn't the "blow out" that Clinton will need, and she likely won't win any more than a handful of delegates above Obama.

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I don't want to seem pedantic but didn't PPP change their polling methodology last month in a way that was supposed to favour Obama?

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cinnamonape:

tipster: Was the shift in methodology related to incorporating in their survey people that used cellphones? Is that what you mean by "supposed to favour Obama"? It would certainly be more likely to get more young people and professionals in their sample responding, I would think. But I don't know if they simply modified that raw data by some sort of other algorithm that brought back their demographics to the preferred mix.

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cinnamonape:

tipster: Was the shift in methodology related to incorporating in their survey people that used cellphones? Is that what you mean by "supposed to favour Obama"? It would certainly be more likely to get more young people and professionals in their sample responding, I would think. But I don't know if they simply modified that raw data by some sort of other algorithm that brought back their demographics to the preferred mix.

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