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KS: McCain 53, Obama 41 (SurveyUSA-10/21-22)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/21-22/08; 613 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Kansas
McCain 53, Obama 41
Sen: Roberts (R-i) 57, Slattery (D) 35, Hodgkinson (L) 2, Martin (Ref) 2

 

Comments
PortlandRocks:

That CBS poll at 3:30 is going to be "Ugly." FOR MCCAIN.

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Basil:

Can McCain just be president of the know-nothing belt?

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PortlandRocks:

This is more than a 10 point swing for Obama from the last Survey USA poll there.:) WOW.

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mac7396:

Obama needs to do a bit more work if he thinks he's gonna carry all 50 states. "50 state strategy". Pffffft.

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rami:

Wow, mccain well ahead in Kansas. Obama's dead, he can't win without with critical swing state.

Seriously, I noticed the pollster are increasingly looking into red states. polls for TX, MT, KY, AR, and now Ks have been released in the last 2 days. Apparantly the pollsters are no longer sure of anything and they all want to be the first to see a new state swinging, so they're polling even the most improbable places.

Nobody's polling HI, MA, CT, RI, VT...

Uh, another thing. Mccain is trailing by the same margin, 12, in PA. And still he is campagning there and say that he can win the state, and needs to.
Would everyone be mocking Obama if he was focusing his campaign on Kansas !?

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fed:

Barr thinks Obama is going to win Geogia. That is what he just told Wolf Blitzer on CNN

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Basil:

McCain's surging through the back door. His strategy is to go all the way to zero as fast as possible, come down from 100%, and catch Obama from the high side.

That may have been McCain's strategy when he flew one of his jets into the water. If the engines had been working properly (he said they weren't, investigators said they were, and that he just blew it), he could have emerged high in the skies above China and been a hero.

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timontheleft:

@fed

I've heard a lot of comments from people saying they were going to stay home, vote Obama, or vote Barr. So, I think it might be a lot closer here than people think.

Although there are still a lot of McCain/Palin signs around.

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McCain doesn't plan to attend his own Election Night rally.

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JCK:

Uh, another thing. Mccain is trailing by the same margin, 12, in PA. And still he is campagning there and say that he can win the state, and needs to.
Would everyone be mocking Obama if he was focusing his campaign on Kansas !?

Well, in McCain's defense, PA was close in 2004. KS hasn't been close in LONG time.

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Nowukkers:

Basil:

Thanks. I knew there had to be a rational explanation - well at least more rational than McCain's, or alankeyes's.

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NorseSoccer:

@rami

Yes, everyone WOULD be mocking Obama if he concentrated on Kansas.

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dynamo2000:

Anyone get the distinct feeling that McCain is trying to tank this one just to stick it to his party? Perhaps he really doesn't like the dirty campaigns of the Republicans who only know how to throw insults because they have no ideas to campaign on. Perhaps he's trying to demonstrate how disgusted he is with his own party. Why pick Palin? Why hire all of Bush's partisan hacks? Why the ridiculous charges of "socialism" and "anti-American"? He must be up to something.

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Mike:

This is amazing. Besides Lawrence, the state of Kansas was perfectly red in 04. O only down 12 now?

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sunnymi:


ABC/WashingtonPost Daily Tracking Poll (10/23)

Obama - 54
McCain - 43

No change since yesterday

Obama and McCain tied up in "Red States"

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/

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sunnymi:

In the latest four-night track, Obama holds a commanding 22-point advantage in states John F. Kerry won in 2004, and he is about tied with John McCain in states Bush won last time (49 percent Obama, 48 percent McCain). Similarly, Obama is up 60 to 36 percent in states Kerry won by more than five and trails by a smaller 52 to 45 percent margin in states Bush carried that easily. In those crucial states decided by five or fewer points in 2004, Obama is up 21 points.

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PortlandRocks:

dynamo2000 no I literally think McCain puts his nomination over country.

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Nowukkers:

dynamo2000:
Anyone get the distinct feeling that McCain is trying to tank this one just to stick it to his party?
Strange you should say that, but I had thought the same thing for quite a while. But once I read that Rolling Stone article, which nobody seems to have yet disputed, I figured McCain's plan of attack was consistent with his bat****-crazy all-over-the-place-like-a-monkey's-**** modus operandi. I firmly believe this plan of attack is more consistent with senile dementia and constipation than with some devious scheme to gut the GOP after what it did to him in 2000.

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modrewob:

But IF he did actually campaign in Kansas it would get very close. We do have a Dem gov and have had others in recent years as well. We may never turn this place blue, but keeping it around 10 would be huge.

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Stonecreek:

ABC-WaPo is out: 54-43 LV (no change), 54-41 RV (+1 Obama from yesterday.)

Here's one of the most important internals on voter enthusiasm:

--- Enthusiastic --
NET Very Somewhat
a. Obama 94 67 28
b. McCain 88 40 48

This is consistent with other polls that show an enthusiasm gap of around 30 points. This is huge in terms of voter participation (turnout).

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Kile Thomson:


Florida

St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll

Obama 49, McCain 42


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Chester:

@ Kile
got a link for that?

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whoshotsam:

@Chester

Link:

FL Poll

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Cho:

Actually, the ABC poll looks pretty solid. Though they don't show many internals, including cell-phone-only they could be closer to the truth than some think.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

There are no reliably democratic areas or cities in Kansas (besides maybe Lawrence), so for McCain to be polling only 53% there is not good.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Bad for McCain that is. Good for the middle class.

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Mike:

Yep, Lawrence is always quite blue. Kansas City, KS is generally purple as is Johnson County (2 KCMO suburbs) but besides that it's as red as Utah. I remember Kerry/Edwards made a stop in Lawrence in 2004. Has Obama made any appearances there this time? Energizing fly-over's version of Berkley could make the returns respectable for Obama.

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wagthedog1001:

If McCain didn't have the Great Plains and Dixie South, he'd be really hurting. hmmmmm.... wonder what those two sections of the country have in common?

That's the key to McCain's strength!

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