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KY: 2010 Sen (Kos 5/10-12)


DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
5/10-12/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
39% Mongiardo, 36% Conway, 5% Price, 3% Buckmaster

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
45% Paul, 35% Grayson, 3% Stephenson, 3% Martin (chart)

2010 Senate
42% Grayson, 36% Mongiardo (chart)
43% Grayson, 35% Conway (chart)
43% Paul, 38% Mongiardo (chart)
42% Paul, 39% Conway (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Steve Beshear: 47 / 44
Mitch McConnell: 43 / 49
Jim Bunning: 39 / 52
Barack Obama: 38 / 59

 

Comments
jmartin4s:

Mongiardo seems to be stuck at a brick wall at 39%, while Conway has shown a lot of variation. Generally the candidate with the most variation tends to surge going into election night. I'm hoping for a Conway surge that is strong enough to put him over the top.

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kevin626:

A Conway/Paul matchup is definitely the best outcome for the Democrats. Paul would be the favorite but it'd still be a close race.

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tjampel:

Mongiardo has burned a lot of bridges (for example he attacked Gov Beshear a few months ago rather viciously) and lacks the kind of charisma that can build a movement. He started out as the favorite in the primary and hasn't really done anything to galvanize or excite voters. Basically his appeal is to moderates and to conservative Dems who don't want to vote for a Republican. The gender patterns of support for him and Conway follow the same time-worn pattern as Republican candidates do against Dems. Males support him; women support Conway by high single digits. He also rules in rural Eastern KY and gets crushed in Louisville. He's been maxed out for weeks while Mongiardo has been building up steam. That doesn't bode well for him, though he's still in the lead...marginally.

Conway has a certain kind of authenticity and folksy charm (whether it's genuine or manufactured doesn't matter much...it works), which may be able to generate some excitement for the general and hold onto supporters (loyalty). He'll need both against Paul.

Paul can generate a lot of enthusiasm among his base (which is NOT coextensive with the Republican base...note that some liberals (maybe libertarians?) appear to move to him against Mongiardo but support Conway against him.

If Conway wins let's see if Paul can expand his base to include the traditional Republican one. If so Conway's toast; but...I think probably not; his views are too unconventional for some KY folks (as I've posted before)

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ArthurIBrown:

Regardless of the match-up (notwithstanding that Paul-Conway is tougher), the albatross that is Obama will drag down any Democrat in this state.

Barack Obama: 38 / 59

D@mn. That is brutal.

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tjampel:

Obama was beaten 57/41 in KY, so his favorables were terrible to begin with. I don't see him dragging down anyone much less visiting the state. It hasn't hurt Mongiardo or Bashear, both Dems, in taking the Governor and Lt Governor offices or Conway either (Attorney General).

Paul may try to tie Obama to Conway; it won't work. Conway opposes a number of Obama signature bills, including cap and trade. More likely, Paul will be on the defensive about his past statements about coal, drugs, Iraq, etc. Plenty of fertile ground because he keeps shooting off his mouth.

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