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KY: 2010 Sen (Kos 5/24-26)

Topics: Kentucky , poll

DailyKos.com / Research 2000
5/24-26/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
44% Paul (R), 41% Conway (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rand Paul: 53 / 33
Jack Conway: 48 / 43
Barack Obama: 37 / 60

 

Comments
progressivewisconsin:

This looks too good to be true.

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Paleo:

Because it's Kentucky, it's tough race for Conway to win, even against Ayn Rand Paul. Leans Republican.

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pion:

Paul and Conway within a statistical tie. Don't know if Conway can pull it off, but Paul is the best possible opponent from a Democratic perspective. There is a big difference between being a Conservative and being a Libertarian.

As usual, young people overwhelmingly go for the Democrat while people over 60 are massively Republican. HCR will likely be a drag for Conway.

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Field Marshal:

Man, if KKKos has Paul up by 3, he's probably really up by 6 after such negative press. Kinda of sad on Conways part.

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ErikEckles:

The key for Conway is getting Paul's favorability spread down. And honestly, if he can't do that with everything out there about Paul, Conway doesn't deserve to win.

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Scott:

So add 5-6 points to Paul and subtract the same from Conway for reality... and it's more like a 50-35 lead for Paul.

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ndirish11:

Liberals need to learn something. Just because you would vote against something, doesn't mean you think it is morally wrong/right. Rand is just like his father in a lot of ways, heres some examples so you can try to understand.

Ron Paul voted against a ban on gay marriage. Does this mean Ron Paul is gay? No. He voted against a ban on gay marriage because he doesn't believe the government has the right under the Constitution to decide who we can and cannot marry. He wants marriages to be private decisions. He believes voting for a ban on gay marriage would harm our liberty.

Ron Paul wants to end the war on drugs. Does this mean Ron Paul is a drug addict? No. He wants to end the war on drugs because he doesn't believe that the government has the right under the Constitution to decide what we can and cannot do to our own bodies if it hurts no one else. He believes that being for the war on drugs would harm our liberty.

Ron/Rand disagree with the tenth portion of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that states that private business owners must serve whoever regardless of race. Does this mean they are racist? No. They don't believe that the government has the right under the Constitution to make a private business decision for a private property owner. They agree with all parts of the Civil Rights Act that end segregation in public/government owned places. Ron/Rand believe that forcing business owners to accept a government made decision on their private business would harm our liberty.

You can call Rand an believer of an extremely limited federal government. Wether you think thats a good or bad thing is a whole another debate. What you cannot do is call Rand or Ron racist, because that is simply not true.

I consider myself to be very closely aligned with the Pauls and other libertarians. Whenever I take an online test on the political spectrum, I always am a libertarian. While I don't agree with everything about Rand and Ron (Rand and Ron don't even agree on everything), every decision Rand and Ron make are in defense of liberty.

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pion:

The A/D numbers from the same pollster on 03/15-17/10 we had:

55/25 for Paul with 20 undecided
44/40 for Conway with 16 undecided

The A/D for Conway haven't changed much, but Paul's have worsened by 10pnts. If Conway is smart, he will wait until we're closer to November before going all out against Paul. Paul is now in a Palin-like news blackout and Conway should use this time to improve his own A/D numbers.

Paul shying away from interviews makes him look amateurish; I'm guessing he'll soon start giving safe interviews on Fox and right wing radio, but even those safe interviews can only help Conway unless Paul becomes better at hiding the fact that he's a throwback to Goldwater. This race should be quite entertaining!

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pion:

ndirish11:

"They don't believe that the government has the right under the Constitution to make a private business decision for a private property owner. They agree with all parts of the Civil Rights Act that end segregation in public/government owned places. Ron/Rand believe that forcing business owners to accept a government made decision on their private business would harm our liberty."

I think the Pauls also believe that the free market will take care of segregated lunch counters. The problem is that back in 1964, many Conservatives came to the conclusion that the free market had failed to desegregate hotels, restaurant, etc. That's why they supported the CRA.

Also, your Libertarian view point creates situations, unacceptable to most Americans, where you could have a black soldier putting his life on the line for his country and being refused a bed in white-only hotel. What if that soldier is driving on a government built road (by the way, do you think the government should build roads or leave it all to the free market?) through a small town with one gas station, one restaurant and one hotel and they are all white only?

Well, maybe he wouldn't want to eat in the restaurant anyway, because the government doesn't monitor food safety since the FDA has been abolished. The hotel might be an unsafe structure because the government doesn't provide building standards. Who knows, the gas station might dilute its gas anyway. Maybe he doesn't even want to drive because his car is unsafe. Anyway, accidents happen and we shouldn't blame car manufacturers. The free market will take care of all that stuff.

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Farleftandproud:

Hey Progressivewisconin: What do you make of the Rasmussen poll with Feingold only 2 points ahead of a guy I had never heard of? Is Feingold such a bad senator that the voters would ditch him after serving 2 terms.

This poll looks not too bad for Conway; he probably shouldn't appear on MSNBC as much and agree with Keith Olberman he if wants to win in Kentucky.

Wisconsin had me extremely nervous in 2004. The polls had Bush ahead on election day and Kerry won by less than a half percentage point. Guess you can't allow a fairly blue state turn back the clock.

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Farleftandproud:

Conway has to play the roll of an independent fairly traditional southern Democrat. He has to stay away from gay issues as much as possible; the bottom line is people in Kentucky I would imagine are not going to be swayed at what MSNBC, the NEW York Times, Washington Post, Time, Newsweek and even CNN have to say about Ron Paul's extreme views. Conway has to pretend those other media sources don't exist. All the matters is how is portrayed in Kentucky newspapers, and tv.

I know that KY doesn't have the African American population that other states in the south like NC, SC and VA have, however their turnout might be a lot higher considering Paul has recieved bad publicity for his suggestion to repeal the civil rights law. That should get every elligable African American voter to the polls.

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Ned:

Lol, pion, I love that post.

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Field Marshal:

God bless government and all its glory! Where would we be without the graces and good that government provides? We are here to serve thee.

Its too bad pions post is completely inaccurate. Paul stated he would have voted for the CRA and not against. However, they still believe the tripe they here on MSNBC and other fake news networks.

Looks like the people of kentucky are smarter than to believe that garbage.

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

Man, if KKKos has Paul up by 3, he's probably really up by 6 after such negative press. Kinda of sad on Conways part.

I'm not sure why Conway's performance is considered underwhelming here. He's holding his own with voters. while Rand is making unforced errors and is tanking in his favorables. This poll may be a Kos poll but the 37-60 Obama spread shows that this sample isn't unrealistically liberal. These are Ras-like numbers for Obama in KY. In fact Ras had Obama: 36 / 63 a week ago.

Rand will either pull it together or will allow his true feelings on a range of subjects continue erupt periodically, to the benefit of Conway.

I think this race will come down to the general mood of the electorate come November. To the extent that they're less angry than now I think Conway will be the beneficiary.

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Stillow:

Maybe he just mis-spoke!

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ndirish11:

@pion

I'm not an extremist. I don't want no government. But a even a lot of those regulations you just listed aren't really necessary. Free markets have regulations, they have self-regulation. Maybe the owner of that restaurant wants his food to be safe so people will come back and not get sick and so he will stay in business? Maybe the car company wants wants safe cars so all their customers don't die and they go out of business forever?

Alot of things need to be scaled out and abolished. We cannot live in this fantasy of spending borrowed printed money forever.

The government caused the financial crisis with it's Keynesian policies. Excessive regulation not lack of regulation caused the crisis. Ask anyone who predicted it why it came about. Or you could ask the morons who thought the economy was just dandy 5 minutes before the crash and they will give you the typical liberal answer.

I mean they're talking about needing a government issued license to have a job as a flower arranger. Does the government need to protect us from a bad arrangement? What's the worst that happens, we rearrange the flowers till we like it? They make it harder for business to function.

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melvin:

Am so delighted Nate Silver on 538 has called out the Rasmussen poll,Nate stated Rasmussen over polled the Republicans more then any pollsters on record,but when you go to the Rasmussen website he points out 538 agrees with his polling.This guy was just caught over polling Republicans in under polling Democrats.good job Nate Silver for calling this guy out.

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Stillow:

Well if Nate calls him out then its official. good old non-partisan Nate....he has no agenda....he's a good little liberal.

Good ole Nate!

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Xenobion:

I would say Nate has no agenda given that he takes on bad pollsters. Liberal or not. Anyone remember when he took on Strategic Vision?

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Coldfusion:

After all the firestorm with Paul opposing Civil Rights legislation, he's still up in this race.

My prediction back when this broke was that it wouldn't effect Paul, might even benefit him. In an electorate like KY, being attacked for your opposition to Civil rights may even be an asset.

My prediction - Paul will take this

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Wong:

Excellent post, Pion and exactly right.

Conservatives always want small, ineffective government until we get attacked, or their kids eat something with salmonella, or they get hurt on the job and can't work.

Then they can't scream loud enough for the government's help.

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Stillow:

Wong - Get attacked? its the g'ment mandated duty to protect us against an attack...so if we do get attacked, then the word duh comes to mind on the fact that g'ment should address it. did you want the local Wal-Mart to do it instead?

Sheeeesh

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

With 5 months of campaigning to go, Paul is toast.

If he had made the comments a week or two before the election, he might have survived.

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tjampel:

@Coldfusion:

"After all the firestorm with Paul opposing Civil Rights legislation, he's still up in this race.

My prediction back when this broke was that it wouldn't effect Paul, might even benefit him. In an electorate like KY, being attacked for your opposition to Civil rights may even be an asset."

If that were true (if Pauls comments haven't affected him at all then... why have his numbers, especially his favorables, dropped so much in such a short time? Why has been told to shut up by McConnell, why shake up his staff so early

If you wish to write off Kos vs the rest of the world you still can't write off Kos vs Kos results, especially in terms of favorables. Additionally, given the bump he got from the election do you honestly (unspinningly so) believe that he hasn't come down somewhat off his Ras-fueled peak in the 60s last week. And do you really believe that his comments had no part in this?

It's not his Civil rights comments alone either. Frankly, as a liberal, I have no reason to believe Rand is a racist, and I've said it before; so I really doubt the people of KY think he is, whether it would matter to them or not. It's all his other statements to the effect of wanting to abolish ADA, Education Dept and a few others, and make big changes in Medicare/Medicaid, etc. that may be unsettling to people in KY, who are more risk-averse, more dependent on Government handouts (to the tune of $1.80 for each dollar sent to Washington), and perhaps less open to a change agenda than, say, NV.


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JMSTiger:

He comes a dose of reality.

This is a terrible year for Democrats.

Kentucky is a conservative state.

Rand Paul is not the best candidate in the world, but in a terrible year for Democrats and in a conservative state like Kentucky, Paul will end up winning by at least 6%, probably closer to 10%.

Jack Conway has little to no chance of winning this race in November, even against Rand Paul.

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Stillow:

That's true that Conway probably has no chance. But as a conservative I hope the Dems think they do and start dumping cash into an unwinnable race.

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JMSTiger:

Stillow, they will dump a large amount of money into this race up until mid-October when they realize it is a lost cause. Of course, when the Democrats have the money advantage that they currently have, they can afford to throw money down a rat hole, like I am sure they will in races for U.S. Senate seats in Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri, etc.

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tjampel:

Don't forget that Conway is an attractive candidate who isn't prone to gaffes, and isn't a flaming liberal at all...he opposes cap and trade, for example and, I think card check too. His popularity, in a Repub-leaning state (even though it has a loyalty-dem-fueled registration edge) has been pretty steady. I don't think IT will decline (unlike Rand's...but...let's see if he's managed to stop the bleeding).

If Dems have more money to spend than Repubs then it may make sense to spend in KY so long as the race appears winnable, even if there's only an outside (say...15-20%) chance. So long, of course, that it doesn't take away crucial resources from more winnable races...duhhh.

It may actually have the benefit of making the RNC and RSCC commit resources there and leave IT with fewer resources in MO, OH, NH, and....who knows, NC? Let's see who raises more money in the next few months. That will also be important.

The point is this. If it's a horrible year for Dems (and it looks that way now) it doesn't matter. Spend the money and make it as close as possible. If things are that bad only a huge amount of money can make any difference at all...or a late-breaking scandal. If you get the scandal and have been spending the money then you may have a chance...maybe your only way in.

If things start to improve late and you've FAILED to spend....or you pull out too early, you may regret it later.

The economy is still very bad, but it's improving. If people begin to gain confidence that jobs are starting to come back (even with unemployment in the low 9's, let's say) some of the fear, anxiety, and anger, which people feel right now will recede. Those who are independents are more interested in a good economy than a repub or dem. Whoever is seen as being able to deliver just that will win their vote. I think the timing isn't so great for the economy right now. If the election were held next year it would be far better for Dems. But...we've got lemons and need to make lemonade wherever possible.

Rand Paul is capable of digging himself into a hole incredibly fast, as we've seen. Some holes are easier to climb out of than others. I assume he's learned his lesson and will start to campaign in a professional manner but...like with Joe Biden, you never know what's gonna come out of his mouth next and, that's why this race (which we should definitely lose) will still be fun, at least for a while).

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StatyPolly:

Awww, C'mon Gary,

Don't complete idiots, racebaiting pigs, worthless Obama suck-up,republican hating, race baiting bunch of hate filled morons, and stupid ignorant unpatriotic flag-burning america bashing slimeballs need a little love too?

Don't pigs squeal loudest right before the slaughter?

What would Jesus do?

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Farleftandproud:

Even for Kentucky, some of Paul's ideas are too extreme. It is almost as though Paul was secretly recruited by democrats who really want a guy who is really extreme. It doesn't sound like Paul is being well advised. He makes Palin look like a fairly sane person in comparison. Paul supporting the fact that children born in the US to illegals be stripped of their citizenship is an outrage. He is talking about supporting electrical fences that would possibly kill someone. It is beginning to sound a little like Nazi tactics.

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Farleftandproud:

If Paul wins, I think we should boycott Kentucky. I have scene some pretty nasty senators from places like Ok, Al, MS, but even Inhofe doesn't sound as insane as Paul.

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