Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

KY: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 6/1)

Topics: Kentucky , poll

Rasmussen
6/1/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
49% Paul (R), 41% Conway (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rand Paul: 57 / 38
Jack Conway: 47 / 43

Job approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 37 / 63
Gov. Beshear: 53 / 43

 

Comments
rdw4potus:

So...If Rasmussen has this at 8 points, then any other pollster would put it at about 2. I wonder how good the Rasmussen model is. This sure is shaping up to be a make-or-break election for them.

____________________

JMSTiger:

The three polls of this race that have come since the primary results (I don't count Rasmussen's 05/19 poll because it was taken a day after the primary before Paul's comments on the 1964 Civil Rights Act and in the glow of his big win):

-DailyKos/Research2000 (05/24-05/26): Paul +3%
-SurveyUSA (05/27-05/29): Paul +6%
-Rasmussen (06/01): Paul +8%

Paul leads in every poll, even after the mauling he took from the national media for his comments on the 1964 Civil Rights Act. This race is over as long as Rand Paul doesn't do or say something completely ridiculous between now and November. I believe Paul wins by at least 6%, probably closer to 8%.

____________________

CHRIS MERKEY:

Wow!!! We have a close race here. If Rasmussen's house effect is off, then this is even closer. Dems might have to spend some money to defend the CA seat but Reps will have to spend some money to defend this seat. It should have been an easy seat for them to keep.

____________________

JMSTiger:

I would expect Democrats to spend a good deal of money here (they have tons to spend), but they will pull out 1-2 weeks before election day when they realize it is a lost cause.

____________________

Paleo:

I guess rASS was shamed into changing their figures. This is Kentucky. If anything, Paul's view on the Civil Rights Act is a plus for him. He's a slight favorite. But Dems never expected to win this seat, so a win here would be gravy.

____________________

obamalover:

Like I said before: Kentucky is a Southern conservative state. They like racists there. If Conway wins I'll be pleasantly surprised.

____________________

melvin:

Lastweek i was listening to my local radio station in the host of the program was sayin,there is a few videos out there thats showing Rand Paul saying bad things about jews,bt u wont see it until Oct.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ obamalover-

Have you ever visited Kentucky? Have you ever met someone from Kentucky? Are you 10 years old?

I was born in Paducah, Kentucky and spent my first 8 years of my life living in that state. It is full of good, salt of the earth people. Just because a majority of the voters of that state may have a different view of politics than a hardcore, left-wing fanatic such as yourself, does not make them evil, racist monsters.

So much for the "party of tolerance". You lefties are tolerant as long as everyone agrees with you.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Like I said before: Kentucky is a Southern conservative state. They like racists there. If Conway wins I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Amazing. Simply amazing.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ melvin-

I am sure that was some excellent radio. A 50 watt station covering all of greater Haight Ashbury?

____________________

Field Marshal:

JMSTiger,

The left are the most bigoted, racist, intolerant people probably in the world, let alone America. Its simply amazing how they have duped large portions of the American public into thinking its the conservatives.

I would argue there are more racists in the inner-city gang banger territory than in the south, by a large margin. In NYC for example, each ethnic group lives in their section of the city and despise some of the others, use racist comments, and even fight (murder) on behalf of that racism. Its a modern day Mississippi. But that goes against Obamalovers ingrained ideology, hate and ignorance. So he will continue to funnel the same lies he has been fed because he cannot think for himself.

Again, i go back to my prior statement about Goebbels and the NAZIs and how they duped a whole country into genocide. It looks fairly easy looking at OL.

____________________

tjampel:

Forget about numbers, forget about winning a seat that should be owned by Republicans.

Just think of the color of Scott's face when he knew he had to publish this as the follow-up to his previous poll.

Back to the numbers for a moment. If we correct for Ras and Kos house effects as Nate would have us do we get Paul up by 5 1/2 to 6.

Paul will win if he can keep his mouth shut and the economy doesn't recover dramatically. Since Paul has a Biden problem with his mouth, however...it's his nature...expect that the above scenario will NOT play out, and the race will have plenty of ups and downs; a great race to track and comment on in the coming weeks and months. Thanks, Rand!

____________________

Farleftandproud:

"Racemussen"

____________________

Farleftandproud:

To be perfectly honest, it wouldn't exactly be the end of the world if Paul wins, besides I seriously believe that a majority of Republicans share his views on many of the issues, that are contreversial, they just aren't as upfront about what they believe as Paul.

He really is no different than most southern conservatives who are elected in this day and age. They are all racists, but Paul has at least found a unique way of portraying it and selling it.

____________________

JMSTiger:

Conway hasn't had a lead in this race in any poll this entire calendar year. This is not Vermont. Rand Paul will end up winning this race by at least 6%.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Obamalover is right. They like racists in many of those southern states. As some states like Virginia and North Carolina have recently shown in their voting trends, with the exception of Bob Mcdonnell, that they are moving beyond the past and progressing.

The other states have regressed. You had people like Al Gore and Lloyd Bentsen not too long ago in TX and TN and now it seems as though they may never elect a Democrat to the US Senate ever again.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ Farleftandproud---

That is quite a broad brush you paint with there, farleftfanatic. And let me guess, you paint it not knowing anyone from the South and rarely if ever visiting this region. You making that statement would be much like someone on the right saying all leftists are actually closet Marxists/Communists who just don't want to admit to it. Would that be fair? Or do you not give a crap what spews forth from your warped brain and onto the comment section of this website? The more idiotic the better?

____________________

Marcello Mastroianni:

Kudos to the first few posters who actually made substantive comments about the poll without engaging in name-calling and childish attacks.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ Farleftandproud---

I know this is hard for a race obsessed leftist like yourself to understand, but not every vote cast for a Republican candidate in a Southern state is done so with racist intentions. I know it is hard for someone like yourself that is obsessed with identity politics to understand, but some people actually vote for the party of smaller government because they actually may believe in such things.

____________________

melvin:

Rand Paul was quoted in 1995 saying the Holocaust was a myth,also in 2002 he was on tape saying Hitler was misunderstood.Am hoping this is not true,because it would be so hurtful to the Jewish community,but this guy is 100% sure the tape is legit.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Kudos to the first few posters who actually made substantive comments about the poll without engaging in name-calling and childish attacks.

It doesnt take long for the baiters to show up and start throwing around baseless attacks. When you have no other avenue of reason that's what unintelligent people resort too. Truly sad.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ melvin-

Just because some local radio loon on an acid trip dreamed that crap up doesn't mean it is true. If you are pinning your hopes of a Rand Paul defeat on a recording of him defending Hitler, you are probably going to be disappointed.

Plus, why would this hurt him anyway? According to you lefties, everyone in Kentucky is a Nazi anyway. They would eat that stuff up, wouldn't they?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

JMSTiger:
@ Farleftandproud---

I know this is hard for a race obsessed leftist like yourself to understand, but not "every vote cast for a Republican candidate in a Southern state is done so with racist intentions. I know it is hard for someone like yourself that is obsessed with identity politics to understand, but some people actually vote for the party of smaller government because they actually may believe in such things."


Can someone please come to my rescue? The party of smaller government? My Ass. The GOP is only the party of smaller government when they aren't in power.

Can you tell me, if you are indeed the party of smaller government, why in the world did you allow Bush and Cheney to increase our government tremendously with the pet projects of elaborate defense spending, when we wasted our money on the wrong war, and refused to fight the right war.

Would you vote against the Americans with disabilities act and the civil rights act?

____________________

melvin:

You know you are right Mr Tiger, because no matter how racist Rand Paul views are,KY is still going to elect him.Lastweek he was on tape saying children of illegal immigrants should not be citizens,now how sad is that, why is there so much hatred out there.

____________________

obamalover:

@FM

Because I'm a Jew and want to give minorities and disabled people rights that makes me a Nazi? Or maybe because I bash the racists, homophobes, and segregationists in the South? You are clearly deluded.

Anyhow, didn't Hitler massacre disabled people? Seems like you and your conservative ADA-hating friends have more in common with the Fuhrer than you think.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I am sorry if I seem misinformed about the south. I actually know quite a few people from the south, and know a young lady in Oklahoma who goes to every progressive event there is. She may be a minority in the south, but I admire her.

I think there are some parts of the south that are changing and I have spent some time in VA, NC and Atlanta. Even among whites, I can find places in all three of these states where Obama is popular, and they do everything possible to distance themselves from the conservative politicians in their past like Jesse Helms.

We need more people like Jimmy Carter in the south. I know that none of those states will ever be close to being progressive like VT, Mass and the San Francisco bay area, but I think conservative democrats could save the day. I actually think Bill Frist and Bob Corker in TN are decent politicians and wish there were more like them in the south. I may not agree with them, but they at least seem to listen to the opposition.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I think it could turn out that Rand Paul cheated on his wife numerous times and was a neo Nazi and I still think he could win this race. What the F is up with parts of our country?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Melvin on the Holocaust is a myth statement by Paul, see if you can find it. Let me know where you got the source.

If Paul did indeed say that, and you have proof, and that doesn't get the voters to change their minds, than they might as well be electing David Duke.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

We're forgetting what Tjampel pointed out. The last Ras poll had Paul up by 25. This one has him up by 8 and it's been a short time.

Those kinds of numbers remind me a lot of the Webb-Allen race in VA. Allen's foot in mouth disease killed him slowly, not quickly.

KY is a very uphill battle for any democrat. That is one of the 10-12 states that trended away from democrats even in 2008.

____________________

MikeyA:

If the Dems in KY were as enthused as the Dems who post on this site Paul would be toast. However all the polls I'm seeing aren't showing an enthusiasm for Conway as they are loss of support for Conway.

This seat is as much of a waste for Dems trying to get it as CT is for Repubs.

If the revelations in both states happened two weeks prior to the election then both seats would switch just like Mass. but this early in the race both Blumenthal and Paul have more than enough time to put these behind them.

Due to the enthusiasm gap any Dem who wants to win need to have a 6pt buffer.

____________________

sjt22:

I would argue there are more racists in the inner-city gang banger territory than in the south, by a large margin. In NYC for example, each ethnic group lives in their section of the city and despise some of the others, use racist comments, and even fight (murder) on behalf of that racism.

Wow, FM. You say some stupid stuff but this may take the cake. You think that because some gangs are racially based that conservatives aren't racist? Do you know why people join gangs? For protection mostly, from other gangs. Racial lines are a natural dividing line. Go to any prison in America, and you will find black gangs, latino gangs, and white gangs. Why? Because people join up to get protection. Its a sad system but it doesn't

So basically your argument is this: there are a small group of ignorant criminals who divide on racial lines who happen to live in cities, therefore its the left who is racist and the Republican party isn't and the Southern Strategy never happened. Moronic in the highest degree. By that logic I could say that the Klan was and is active in the South, therefore everyone there is racist.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Sjt,

Right back at you!

there are a small group of ignorant criminals who divide on racial lines who happen to live in cities, therefore its the left who is racist and the Republican party isn't and the Southern Strategy never happened. Moronic in the highest degree. By that logic I could say that the Klan was and is active in the South, therefore everyone there is racist.

And that is the rational the left uses all day long. Look at the ignorant comments by Obamalover and Farleft. How about the CBC? They exclude everyone but black congressmen. IN fact, Congressmen Cao of LA asked to join it because a majority of his district was black but they refused since he was Cambodian. But its the GOP that are racists. Keep drinking the Kool-aid!

____________________

Field Marshal:

Because I'm a Jew and want to give minorities and disabled people rights that makes me a Nazi? Or maybe because I bash the racists, homophobes, and segregationists in the South? You are clearly deluded.

Another stellar argument line. Let me ask you this, were you for the invasion of Iraq?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Aaron I wish I could be as optimistic about KY as I was about VA with Webb winning in 2006. That was a bad Republican year, and Virginia also has a higher African american population than KY and that huge population ctr in the north, near DC has a lot of progressives. That makes a difference.

It was interesting that in Alabama where the black population makes up a huge percentage of the Democratic party, they nominated the white candidate.

I think the Dems need to give KY a bit more time and see if Paul falls from grace. If it doesn't look promising for Conway, I think they should focus on playing defense in PA, WA and CO and I think their chances in NC are much better at a pickup than KY. Burr is not that exciting of a senator.

____________________

LordMike:

So, Paul is losing 8 points per gaffe on average.

Just wait until Kentuckians here about his views on:

Social Security
Medicare
Farm subsidies (which are HUGE in the state) including Tobacco subsidies

And much more. I agree that being an ignoramus on civil rights isn't going to hurt him very much in Kentucky, but there's a reason why the Kentucky legislature passed a resolution supporting the civil rights act last week--they were embarrassed.

It should be noted that one of Mitch McConnell's first big works in politics was helping draft the civil rights bill as a Senatorial aide.

If they had nominated Grayson, the latter would be up 20 points or more.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

The republicans of KY chose to make this a contreversial race and one that is going to be competitive. Had they nominated Grayson, this would not even be a competitive race.

Again we are talking about KY, when Jim bunning only beat that candidate in 2004, who he said looked like one of Sadaam Husein's sons. That is the logic you have down there.

Why is it, TN seems to pick pretty rational Republican senators and KY seems to get the worst ones?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Regarding the quote from JMS Tiger, "The left are the most bigoted, racist, intolerant people probably in the world, let alone America. Its simply amazing how they have duped large portions of the American public into thinking its the conservatives.

I would argue there are more racists in the inner-city gang banger territory than in the south, by a large margin. In NYC for example, each ethnic group lives in their section of the city and despise some of the others, use racist comments, and even fight (murder) on behalf of that racism. Its a modern day Mississippi. But that goes against Obamalovers ingrained ideology, hate and ignorance. So he will continue to funnel the same lies he has been fed because he cannot think for himself."

There are racists everywhere, you are right. Places like South Boston and parts of Long Island have a huge group of ignorant white racists who hate foreigners, blacks and hispanics taking over their neighborhoods. There is no doubt that this exists in many northern cities and in California. Philly recently had a case where a African American daycamp was refused making a field trip to a health club. The new owners gave some crappy reason why they wouldn't let them in.

I never said that racism was only in the south or is still in the south. I imagine that in the south there are more blacks and whites who work side by side in the same jobs. I think there may be higher racial gaps income in CA cities, NY and Philly than there probably are in Birmingham or Jackson MS.

I think the bottom line is voting patterns are issues that people don't like to talk about. I think a lot of today's racism exists but it is just covered up than it used to be. We still see it come out though when Obama is portrayed by some right wing activists as a African jungle man, and the guy who ripped up the picture of Rosa parks in southern Missouri last summer at the health care event that Claire Mccaskill held was pretty telling too that we still have a problem.

Eric holder is 100 percent correct. We are a nation of cowards when it comes to race.

____________________

djneedle83:

Conway played the civil rights card to perfection. Now can he hit Paul hard on farm subsidies to eliminate the gap. How does Conway pull even with Paul?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

One Former senator who was as close as libertarian as you can get in my opinion was Simpson in Wyoming. He was very much anti-government control in my respects and retired before the Iraq war so I am not sure how he would have voted on that.

I recall he was moderate on social issues, and stayed away from being involved with contreversial topics like gay rights and abortion.

I think some of those rural western states can elect someone who is closer to libertarian, but in KY I don't think it really exists.

____________________

RW:

I just want to clarify something that seems to be somewhat misunderstood. Racism is not a "white" disease. Any race can be racist.

Farleft -
"There are racists everywhere, you are right. Places like South Boston and parts of Long Island have a huge group of ignorant white racists who hate foreigners, blacks and hispanics taking over their neighborhoods. There is no doubt that this exists in many northern cities and in California. Philly recently had a case where a African American daycamp was refused making a field trip to a health club. The new owners gave some crappy reason why they wouldn't let them in."

You are not doing yourself any favors with this statement. It makes you seem like you believe white people are the only ones guilty of racism. It almost seems like you are saying that other other racial groups are incapabale of racism. The point that FM seems to be making is that all people groups can engage in racism, not just white southerners. The racist white southerner idea is a very out-dated philosophy.

____________________

Wong:

Looks like FM has gone off the deep end.

According to him, the left, composed of a coalition of whites, Latinos and Latinas, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, gay and lesbians, is the most intolerant and racist "in the world"

Sure. And southern conservatives who would return us to Jim Crow, are the enlightened and inclusive ones.

This actually takes top prize for right wing kookery, passing up the infamous "union workers are slaves" nonsense. Keep it up, though. I'm sure you will find a way to stretch the bounds of credulity even more.

____________________

tjampel:

@Field Marshal:

"It doesn't take long for the baiters to show up and start throwing around baseless attacks. When you have no other avenue of reason that's what unintelligent people resort too. Truly sad."

It takes someone every bit as bad as "the baiters" to take the bait and tell the "baiter", for example that they would willingly kill millions of Jews if ordered to do it by Herr Goebbels (and then reference this odious remark in a slightly different context in this very thread...are you still proud of making this original remark to a Jew? You didn't know it then but you do now.)

Your personal attacks violate the rules of this forum, which are clear and unambiguous. Your comments must be civil. Yours are consistently uncivil in that they attack fellow posters by name.

You should stop immediately or be banned from this site.


____________________

RW:

From a neutral point of view, if FM were to be banned then there are at least 4 or 5 other primary members that should receive the same fate. Both liberals and conservatives.

A much better approach would be for the moderators to keep track of the first person on any particular thread to make a comment that derrides a person by name and then ban those people. I would think this would solve the problem, as no one would want to be first. If they made comments anyways then they would be gone. Simple.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

"RW:
I just want to clarify something that seems to be somewhat misunderstood. Racism is not a "white" disease. Any race can be racist. "

Unlike most Republicans who fail to break ranks with the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck, I'll be the first progressive to say that there is indeed reverse racism. I agree that Blacks, and Hispanics have their own subcultures and music and many of them don't associate with white people other than in the workplace. Your point is well taken.

I think it is pretty sad that they made a movie on Lifetime about a town in Georgia I think that still had segregated proms. This movie wasn't sent in 1969 or even 1979, it was made in 2005.

I honestly think that too many Americans in general are cowards when discussing race, and I am including all races.

Our prisons for instance are called "correctional institutions" yet the inmates are automatically segregated by race just and this doesn't change much while they are in prison. What happens is they belong to Latin Kings, or Aryan Nation or the Bloods or Cryps, and they are allowed to wear hate insignia. I think free speech should not be allowed for inmates, and I think if they are indeed going to someday law abiding citizens they have to learn to coexist with people of other races. That doesn't mean they have to be best friends, but that means, that hate should not be tolerated in our prisons like it is.

____________________

tjampel:

I don't think it's appropriate to say "the people of KY are racists" (though it's fine to say...some people in KY are racists; that's probably true of every state). Irrespective of whether someone says either comment they should never be banned for it. These are not uncivil and don't violate the letter of spirit of the rules here.

Saying "FM is a racist", (or anyone else) does violate the rules and warrants banning.
Saying, on the other hand, FM's remark abc, has been consistently used by people I consider racists to justify xyz....." does not violate the rules. The difference is that one is a personal attack on the character of FM and the other is a substantive attack on a particular remark, which is definitely fair game.

FM has called people out personally in this thread in an unacceptable way and has done this over a lengthy period of time. Others have done the same. He's not unique in this.

I just want this to stop. If not, for the good of this website all people who do this, after being warned should be banned.

____________________

ethano:

You know how it's easy to tell that Field Marshall is a racist?

He doesn't even deny that he is one and he doesn't deny that places like Kentucky and other areas of the south still contain large numbers of racist people.

Any time you make an assertion about racism against African-Americans, Jews, Hispanics, or otherwise his reply is to immediately attack the messenger, typically with laughably absurd insinuations.

So, FIELD MARSHALL!

Here's a fun little challenge for you! Simply repeat after me if you BELIEVE this statement to be true:

"I abhor racism in all forms and I strongly condemn racism and racial epithets against African-Americans, Jews, Hispanics, and any other ethnic American group."

GO FOR IT FIELD MARSHALL! YOUR TURN!

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I agree. For instance saying Rand Paul has ideas that are out of the 1890's would make more sense than saying, "that damned racist idiot Rand paul".

Saying that Sarah Palin is a bitch isn't cool. Saying that Sarah Palin's views on certain issues are misguided and extreme is fine.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I'll come up to bat for Field Marshall. I'll give he or she the benefit of the doubt. I have not seen any comments that I would interpret as racist. I can't say I agree on much of anything with him, but there is nothing he has said I think that is completely out of the mainstream. I have seen others that are much more offensive.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I think his comment after looking at it was more cynical than something intended to take seriously.

Guns N Roses did a song on one of their early Albums using racial slurs in a song, but GNR is a pretty left leaning band in general. They were getting in the mind of a biggot when they were writing the song.

____________________

pion:

Guys, the evidence suggests that Kentuckians are embarrassed by Rand Paul's comments about the CRA, the ADA and his sympathy for BP. For my fellow Liberals who are prone to divide America into 'Republican states' and the rest, I remind you of the following snippet from Obama's 2004 convention speech:

"It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family: "E pluribus unum," out of many, one.

Now even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters and negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes.

Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America.

There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America.

The pundits, the pundits like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue States: red states for Republicans, blue States for Democrats. But I've got news for them, too. We worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don't like federal agents poking around our libraries in the red states.

We coach little league in the blue states and, yes, we've got some gay friends in the red states.


There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq, and there are patriots who supported the war in Iraq.

We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America."

Rand Paul is the worst candidate the KY GOP could have picked: he's not particularly charismatic, he's amateurish and his Libertarian ideology is mostly foreign to Kentuckians. The CA GOP is poised to pick Fiorina as a challenger to Boxer even though the obvious GOP nominee is Campbell. The GOP is implementing a national strategy for the midterms instead of focusing on local issues. Good for Dems.

As for this poll, it's excellent news for Dems.

____________________

jamesia:

I think that if Rand Paul is allowed by his campaign staff to continue speaking openly and honestly, he'll lose. It's smarter for the GOP to keep his mouth shut and then he'll coast to victory. All the evidence points to Paul losing the race as more people hear his real views...

And I don't think any reasonable person thinks Paul is racist. He's just publicly stated that a world in which segregated, private businesses are allowed to exist is preferable to the one in which we live. There is plenty of disagreeing with him based on the merits of that idea, yet most partisans on both sides that are too involved to think clearly. And honestly, our media/culture makes it rather difficult to discuss any election based on philosophical preferences.

____________________

pion:

Farleftandproud:

"I'll come up to bat for Field Marshall. I'll give he or she the benefit of the doubt. I have not seen any comments that I would interpret as racist. I can't say I agree on much of anything with him, but there is nothing he has said I think that is completely out of the mainstream. I have seen others that are much more offensive."

I know that you're not looking for anyone's approval, but I wanted to say that this post was quite nice. I sort of remember you writing at some point that you are a songwriter. Artists are often generous in spirit.

Sincerly, pion.

____________________

tjampel:

@pion: I don't think this is about who's a racist here and who's not. That we're even asking these kinds of questions or trying to determine the contents of the minds of each other to this degree shows that something unhealthy has already happened here.

If this website turns into an all out flame war it's purpose shall have been thwarted, perhaps permanently so. To that end FM should be banned. This is why.

FM's first Goebbels remark was bannable. His second reference to Obamalover (by name) as an example of the kind of person who could be manipulated by a Goebels to commit genocide, doubles down on the original comment.

There was no apology for the initial remark. Either FM, it seems believes that this original comment is an acceptable form of discourse in this forum, or he believes it's unacceptable but refuses to apologize for doing something unacceptable. And now he's revived the spirit of it, cloaked in outwardly less offensive language, in this thread.

BTW...I don't think FM's a racist I do think he's intelligent. I do think he's made some very insightful posts and I will miss his analysis if he's banned. None of that matters, however, when the rules are repeatedly and knowingly ignored.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Paul has only been the nominee for 2 weeks. We have 5 months to go to election day.

Polls this year so far have not proven to be predictable and that would be the trend in the general election. I believe the GOP will have greater success this Fall than the Dems, and that is inevitable I think, yet there could be some last minute surprises.

The PA Special election and the Upstate NY election showed polls were neck to neck and in both cases the Democrats won by 8-9 points. Conway was behind in the primary polls yet he won. I think the Democrat who lost in the governor's race in AL was favored by most pollsters.

I do believe that regardless of who wins this KY race, the turnout will be excellent and having Rand Paul on the ballot may actually help Democrats in KY at the local level, even if Conway loses.

I think when the GOP nominates extremists it motivates the other side even more. I think Obama would have been elected had Mccain picked more of a moderate like Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, but by picking Sarah Palin, Obama monopolized on that. Her strange ideas and inexperience, and her brainless interviews, really scared people. I believe that Mccain lost a lot of votes because of her. I think Rand Paul in many ways is just as far out and Democrats will seize on this.

I think that the GOP candidates in Nevada seem quite vulnerable and all three of them seem to have strange ideas on issues like getting rid of social security and other ideas from the tea party. I think the Democrats may have their best shot at going after the less traditional conservative candidates, than they will going after the old timers like Grassley.

In states like ND or DE or possibly Arkansas, if the Democratic candidate isn't running close, the momentum from the base could disintigrate. It gets frustrating to make phone calls for candidates when they are trailing by double digits or more. I am sure, that when Obama was on the ballot against Alan Keyes, the Republicans that year, 2004 when Obama first ran for the senate, didn't have a lot of hope.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

KY is an unusual place for a libertarian to run, because they tend to be very socially conservative and much like Louisiana don't like government spending in Washington, but when they have a mine explosion, a natural distaster or oil spill they need help from the government!

The more libertarian senators have come from Western states like North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and northern Arizona. You have some native Americans who likewise like to live off the land and enjoy the traditions of the past and self autonomy of their lands. These places are pretty homogenous and these ideas go back to the old West and the frontier traditions. It isn't nearly as hard to govern places like these.

When I think of the south, I more or less think of people more like Pat Robertson.

____________________

iVote:

Does anyone know if there are any debates planned between Rand Paul and Conway? Definitely wouldn't wanna miss that.

____________________

Juan Chin:

Yep, Kentucky is a racist state so Paul's radical comments only help him. He should go in front of the cameras every day and talk about his plan to roll back civil rights. I wonder what happened to the 25 point Rasmussen lead Paul had just a day after the primary??? If Rasmussen has Paul under 50 and if you factor in the plus 5 points he always gives Republicans, then this appears to be a dead even race. I suspect Paul is slightly ahead, but the GOP will have to spend money here to defend Paul. Kentuckians apparently don't care that Paul is an embarrassment to the state. It fits them well.

____________________

pion:

tjampel:

"I don't think this is about who's a racist here and who's not. That we're even asking these kinds of questions or trying to determine the contents of the minds of each other to this degree shows that something unhealthy has already happened here. "

I believe you attributed to me a comment from Farleftandproud since I never wondered about who's a racist or not on this blog.

Don't let offensive posts from complete strangers get under your skin. It is ultimately the Pollster editors job to enforce their "Post an intelligent and civil comment" guideline. If they don't, maybe they don't care and neither should you. If you are going to act as a watchdog for offensive comments, you should do so in an evenhanded way as there are offensive comments flying from all sides.

With respect to FM, he appears to mirror what he reads. When he replies to a civil comment, he is civil. When he reacts to what he calls a "baiter", he baits. Maybe he will respond to a generous post. I don't know.

____________________

Field Marshal:

It takes someone every bit as bad as "the baiters" to take the bait and tell the "baiter", for example that they would willingly kill millions of Jews if ordered to do it by Herr Goebbels (and then reference this odious remark in a slightly different context in this very thread...are you still proud of making this original remark to a Jew? You didn't know it then but you do now.)

Tjample,

It makes no difference if OL is a jew or not. The reference has nothing to do with that. I'm simply stating how easy it is to succomb to propaganda which OL clearly has.

I took the bait as you say because someone has to. There are no moderators on the board so it has to be done by us, the posters. Allowing people like OL to call Reps racists at every moment may be fine for you given you are a Dem, but its not okay to me. I will call him out everytime for it, regardless of the setting just like i would call out someone who was truly being racist.

I like debating people who can be civil, respectable and intelligent with others on this forum as well as those posts regarding people in society (like people from the south or Reps). But i will turn the tide on the hypocrisy and nonsense everytime. People like yourself, Aaron, DJneedle, Stillow, JMSTiger, Cuwriter, rdw4potus, among many others can have great conversations, even though they, at times, can be contentious. There are some though that will continuously put others down, put down republicans in odious ways, and use bigoted comments which I WILL CALL OUT EVERYTIME. Farleft is in between occasionaly making good comments while other times denegrating those who believe differently than he does- or simply defining entire groups of people (southerners). I do believe its definable, Tjample, that you called me out while ignoring OL.

I abhor racism but will call out others who use racism as bait in order to spout bigoted (and at times racist) comments. That's my way.

I would love to have spirited and intellectual discussion with many of you on the board but some posters are simply obstacles to that happening.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

This whole thread is just another example of how contentious the race issue is. I don't think anything else gets people on this board so worked up, not even health care.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The concept of racism has been so diluted and abused by BOTH sides in recent years that it's for all intents and purposes meaningless.

Which is sad, because it obscures the real racism that's out there. I hear it all the time in political discourse from both sides.

I'd encourage folks to read "The Development of Segregationist Thought" edited by I.A. Newby if you want to get a handle on what racism really was/is. You can find it at your library.

____________________

pion:

Field Marshal, you write:

"I would love to have spirited and intellectual discussion with many of you on the board but some posters are simply obstacles to that happening."

But a typical comment from you is:

"The left are the most bigoted, racist, intolerant people probably in the world"

A lot of your posts are extraordinarily nasty. You can't blame Obamalover (or anyone else) for your posts.

____________________

ndirish11:

We all need to stop the "If they wanted to win, they should of nominated this candidate because..." unless it ends with "they are better on the issues." The issues are what matters. Not if they are Republican, Democrat, Libertarian or whatever. Not if they can afford to buy the seat like Linda McMahon in CT. Nominate candidates based on issues only. That's how you get real grassroots support, if you run them based on establishment status or because they are rich, then all you get is astroturf.

Rand's problem is simple. He was walking on a very thin balance beam before all this news broke. He was running on platform that was vague in some areas and was strong on others. This balance beam represents the tiny, tiny, tiny area where you can appeal to both Libertarian and Republican philosophies. He wanted his dad's out of state money, and he wanted the KY voters support. He never went into detail about drugs, gay marriage, prostitution, foreign policy and others as to not upset the obvious differences in these issues between his dad's supporters and the typical KY Republican voter. Yet he was real detailed on his support of balance budgets, less spending, and less taxes (all places Libertarians and Republicans agree on).

Well he couldn't pander to the two separate crowds any longer and do to the latest scandals, he has fallen off that beam and everyone seems to mad at him. The left obviously, the right, and now even the Libertarian Party of KY. They are seriously considering running a candidate against him. They are running a Libertarian against RON PAUL's son!

But, in my heart I believe Rand is a lot more libertarian than he shows. I mean his dad is Ron freakin' Paul, there is no way he is more like today's Republicans than he is like his dad. I wish he would let his true colors fly, but hey maybe he is playing it smart. Look at Peter Schiff in CT, he is running based on a pure, 100% libertarian platform as a Republican and he isn't doing nearly as well as Rand.

____________________

Farleftandproud:


Here is Rasmussen's poll this week which is designed to scare liberals.

Washington (Likely Voters

2010 Senate
61% Rossi (R), 38% Murray (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dino Rossi: 67 / 28
Patty Murray: 39 / 57
Barack Obama: 41/59

Wisconsin LV

Washington (Likely Voters

2010 Senate
54% Generic Republican (R), 38% Feingold (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Russ Feingold: 40/64
Generic Republican: 55 / 45
Barack Obama: 41/59

2012 General Election

(Very likely voters)

Obama 43 Huckabee 57
Obama 47 Palin 47
Obama 49 Jindal 51
Obama 44 Jeb Bush 51
Obama 49 Rand Paul 48


____________________

Farleftandproud:

I think if this was a reality, I'd be ready first of all to drink myself into oblivian and than when I woke up, I'd probably move to Scotland or Sweden or even Ireland. I'd give Uncle sam my farewell.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Early Predictions for US Competitive Senate seats Dems 53 GOP 46 plus Charlie Crist

PA Sestak 48 Toomey 46
KY Paul 50 Conway 48
NC Burr 52 Cunningham 47
ARK Halter 41 Boozeman 59
NH Ayotte 52 Hodes 48
IL Alexis G 52 Kirk 48
OH Fisher 49 Portman 51
Washington Rossi 50 Murray 48
Wisconsin Feingold 52 Generic Republican 48
CT Blumenthal 56 Mcmahon 44
NV Reid 51 Republican 49
CO Republican 53 Bennet 47
CA Boxer 56 Fiorina 44
DE Castle 58 Coons 42
ND Hoeven 70 Democrat 30
Florida Crist 42 Rubio 33 Meek 25
Indiana Coats 63 Democrat 37
Missouri Carnahan 46 Blunt 54

____________________

tjampel:

Field Marshal:
You are wrong about my not calling out Obamalover. I called him out on his statement that people in some state that I forget now, maybe(AL?) were racists. I was criticized for that by, (I think), Aaron_in_TX

The point is that I was offended enough by that remark of ObamaLover enough to publicly protest it. I am offended by many of his remarks.

No matter what ObamaLover says, responding with a personal attack against BY NAME, especially one implying that ObamaLover, personally, would be like putty in the hands of Joseph Goebbels and would be willing to do his bidding, is always wrong and always bannable, according to the rules. I am asking you to stop doing that; stop making personal attacks no matter how much you are provoked.

If provoked, you can point to the fallacy of the argument and use data and logic to destroy it. You can remind them that they're in violation of rules, if that's the case. You can tell them they should not post on the site if their post is that egregious.


____________________

Bigmike:

Aaron_in_TX:

"This whole thread is just another example of how contentious the race issue is"

IMHO the Dems want to make the KY election about race. What else are they going to run on? Unemployment?

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"IMHO the Dems want to make the KY election about race."

It was Rand that kept sticking his foot farther into his mouth. He must be smart enough to know how to give an acceptable answer to the civil rights question.

Obviously the easy answer on whether you would have supported the 1964 Civil Rights Act is "yes," then say that the issue is in the past, settled law, and change the subject to a current issue. Any other answer opens a pandora's box.

It amazes me how hard it is for some republicans to answer simple questions. Like Sarah Palin and the newspaper question. It's easy! Say New York Times and Anchorage Daily News! Or say Wall Street Journal instead of NYT if you don't want to sound liberal. Then move on. How hard is that?

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Frankly, I'm glad Rand said what he did. As a history instructor, it will be that much more relevant to my students when I get to the unit about Barry Goldwater.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ Aaron_in_TX-

Will you teach that Goldwater was a racist because he held libertarian viewpoints on the role of government in society? I doubt you will because you seem to be a level-headed, fair-minded leftist, not a hysterical race obsessed type like many of the hardcore left-wingers that left comments in this thread.

I know it is hard for many of the lefties here to understand, but not all people that expouse a libertarian philosophy are racist. Some (such as Rand Paul) actually believe in a very limited government. How that automatically makes one a Nazi or member of the Klan is beyond me, but of course, I am not a race obsessed Marxist.

____________________

ethano:

So, Field Marshall DID say: "I abhor racism in all forms"

But he still refuses to acknowledge the latter aspect of my comment:

"I strongly condemn racism and racial epithets against African-Americans, Jews, Hispanics, and any other ethnic American group."

Let's hear it Field Marshall!

Tell us in plain English that you condemn racist remarks and racial epithets against AFRICAN-AMERICANS, JEWS, and HISPANICS!!!

CAN YOU DO IT?!

I'm CHALLENGING YOU TO DO IT!

Tell us in no uncertain terms that you CONDEMN remarks made against African-Americans, Jews, and Hispanics!

Go for it!

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"Will you teach that Goldwater was a racist because he held libertarian viewpoints on the role of government in society?"

LOL, no.

Goldwater was no racist. His views were far less racist than many of his senate peers, particularly the southern democrats. But there were people that supported him that hid their racism both consciously and unconsciously behind his position.

I usually quote one young conservative Goldwater supporter from 1963: "I'm no segregation man. I support rights for negroes. But that doesn't mean I want to hug & kiss 'em!" In other words, he was for civil rights as long as the blacks exercising it weren't near him.

____________________

JMSTiger:

@ Aaron_in_TX---

And we still live like that today. The vast majority of the country desires to live in neighborhoods or areas with their own ethnic group and this is everywhere, not just in the hated Southland.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

"The vast majority of the country desires to live in neighborhoods or areas with their own ethnic group and this is everywhere,"

Actually a study was done and found that minorities were more likely to want to live in mixed neighborhoods. Slightly more blacks indicated they'd rather live in a white neighborhood with few other blacks than those who preferred in an all-black neighborhood.

A majority of whites said they'd rather live in a white neighborhood, the minority said mixed. Almost none preferred black or hispanic neighborhoods.

It's class, not racism.

I notice young people make absolutely no distinction based on skin color, but they are very discrimatory based on cultural indications, ie: "ghetto" vs. "preppy" or "emo" or "goth" styling. It doesn't matter what the color of the skin is.

Is there racism there? Maybe, but it's far more subtle and complex than it was in Goldwater's day when people were more frank about it.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR