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KY: 41% Paul, 31% Conway (Braun 8/2-4)

Topics: Kentucky , poll , Senate

Braun Research for CN2 Politics
8/2-4/10; 802 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CN2 Release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
41% Paul (R), 31% Conway (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jack Conway: 44 / 21
Rand Paul: 50 / 26

 

Comments
Chantal:

melvin explodes in 3... 2... 1...

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iVote:

Interesting. Certainly a bunch of undecideds.

But I'm sure that Rand Paul, being the Baylor graduate that he is, will have no problem putting this race away.

Oh, what's that? He didn't actually graduate there?

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Brent Burk:

Say iVote, he didn't graduate from Baylor?

Oh, ya know, he just graduated from Duke Medical School. But GOD FORBID he didn't finish his bachelors! He MUST be dumb if Duke accepted him early!

hahaha.

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shabby:

Not that it matters much but Paul was at 40.6% and Conway at 31.4% :) a little closer.
Voters in this state are undecided. Look at the positives vs negativre and you'll see why this race is obviously still a potential toss up. People are going to get to know both canidates soon enough. Advertising hasn't even begun. The debate process and eventuall local press interviews. Currently Paul is in hiding from all attention. How do you think this new found coming attention will affect the race f one canidate is doing everything he can to stay out of the public eye. Conway is smooth and chrismatic. It'll be a competitive race.

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Dave:

So the guy who mirrors many of Obama's policies only pulls in 31% of the vote? I'm shocked really. Come on DNC, come throw away some money here.

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kariq:

It's interesting that the composite for this race is so close. I don't know this pollster, so I don't know if their record is a good one or not. But I suspect that the Paul's remarks against federal mine safety regulation could end up hurting him in coal country, and future polls will show this to be a very narrow race. Kentucky should have been a "gimme" for the GOP, now it's gotta be a tossup.

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Dave:

I think the composite is so close due to the polls taken ages before the primaries were even held. Look at the polls after the first of the year. Only one poll shows Conway ahead, and I think that was an internal

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tjampel:

From my research it doesn't appear that Conway has taken to the air yet (there's one Ad on the web). Mongiardo has also been very slow to endorse Conway; he just came out with his grudging endorsement now, after months of inaction. That's hurting Conway's efforts to consolidate his Dem base.

There are also a lot of undecided's. I'd like to know what they're undecided about, as this race has two polar opposites. This means (to me) that many people in KY aren't paying attention to the race yet despite the national prominence of it. If you live in KY and are paying attention it's hard to imagine that you're thinking "hmm....I could go either way".

However a look at the crosstabs shows a 50% plus conservative electorate with a wide preference for GOP control. The generic ballot in this state is very high for Republicans.

So, I think Conway's only shot is massive negative Ads using Rand, and Rand continuing to make statements that piss off various groups. I notice that the race is almost tied among seniors, btw, and very young people love Rand...he's doubling Conway's totals with the youngest demographic.

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Field Marshal:

tjample,

I agree. I just don't see any viable way for conway to win this race without some sort of damning catalyst that destroys Paul.

The DNC should focus on races it has a credible shot like NV, CO, MO and maybe even NC.

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tjampel:

Ras just out with NC numbers again. The race is now 9 points. Ras shifted rating to leans Repub from likely Repub.

I see lots of upside for Marshall here. I do think DSCC and DNC will make a concerted effort to win this even if it's still a long shot. Burr's personal weakness just make him so vulnerable and NC voters have to be the most fickle in the country. (5 seat changes in 5 elections for this seat held by Burr).

If KY continues to drift towards Paul Dems may pull the plug and concentrate on OH, MO, etc. But I'd like to see the results of a really good media strategy directed against Paul first.

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melvin:

The teaparty candidates have been losing big since Haley won in SC.The teaparty leaders are blaming the NAACP for they're poor showings.The NAACP is not the reason they're getting killed,its the hateful rhetoric they're putting out day after day.

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Farleftandproud:

What was the party Id for this poll. Does anyone know?

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Field Marshal:

I agree melvin. The NAACP does put out hateful and racist rhetoric everyday.

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melvin:

The Democrats are going to pull do a October surprise on this guy,word is there is about 3 tapes out there showing Paul last year telling a audience Obama is not a Citizen of this Country.You notice the Dems waited for the Mich primary to end to show a tape of they're candidate in the 9th district saying the samething about Obama Citizenship in March,the crazy thing is, he didn't deny it.Mich 9 was suppose to be a GOP pickup,but after that tape came out on Wednesday,the 9th district should be back in the hands of the Democrats come November.

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melvin:

The Democrats are going to pull do a October surprise on this guy,word is there is about 3 tapes out there showing Paul last year telling a audience Obama is not a Citizen of this Country.You notice the Dems waited for the Mich primary to end to show a tape of they're candidate in the 9th district saying the samething about Obama Citizenship in march,the crazy thing is, he didn't deny it.Mich 9 was suppose to be a GOP pickup,but after that tape came out on Wednesday,the 9th district should be back in the hands of the Democrats come November.

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tjampel:

A negative campaign against Paul has to be based in conservative-center values, like smaller gov, low taxes, etc. but with emphasis on protection for mine workers, disabled, retirees. It has to say..."OK, we know you want this, but with Paul you're also going to get privatization of the benefits and regulations you like (like mine safety) and, in many cases depend on.

As noted, the one demo that's almost even is seniors, oddly enough (they're reliably republican in most red states). They're already a little edgy about Paul. I think they can be turned away from him better. I also see Conway closer to Paul in the next oldest demographic, those approaching retirement who worry about their benefits still being there. I think Dems still have the upper hand in terms of reassuring people that their benefits won't be cut, the retirement age won't be raised, etc.

Of course this kind of campaign still won't be enough to close the gap. Paul needs to help by continuing to speak out on the issues. And, furthermore Dems need to get the base at least a little more motivated. If poor and minorities stay home the wave will be unstoppable no matter how unpalatable the candidate.

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Farleftandproud:

I think just the fact Paul is out of the mainstream should be a reason to run a campaign against him. He wanted to get rid of mine safety regulations, and that is just asking for trouble.

If Paul wins this thing, I would say it is the ultimate case of the Stockholm system, a form of brainwashing in a figurative sense. People vote against their own interests and someone whose policies will hurt them.

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Stillow:

farleft - Anyone right of Castro is out of the mainstream in your opinion. No matter how many li9es you lefties tell about paul or ho much you try and slander him, he will win. This is an unwinnable race for the Dems.

Reality sucks, but whattya gonna do.

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Farleftandproud:

The GOP will pay an heavy price someday for calling Obama not an American citizen. I have seen it with mainstream politicians and candidates. That is one thing I never saw with Bush until he had been president for a full term.

I never saw Kerry or Schumer ever question if 9/11 could have been prevented, and there was the whole Dan Rather conspiracy, but Democrats gave Bush the benefit of the doubt his first year.

Obama has been heckled and many elected Republicans either aren't sure or don't believe he is an American. It is shameful and outrageous, and I think their behavior will hurt any chance at bi-partisanship or civility for years to come.

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Farleftandproud:

"Stillow:
farleft - Anyone right of Castro is out of the mainstream in your opinion. No matter how many li9es you lefties tell about paul or ho much you try and slander him, he will win. This is an unwinnable race for the Dems.
"

Did you forget, Vermont or CT or RI or Boston or Greenwich village in NY, or you've Denver with their left wing conspiracies in which bikes are being used. That was stated by someone running for governor or senator from the extreme right.

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Stillow:

farleft - Who is more crazy a birther or a eft wing truther? Hmmmm?

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Bukama:

George Bush didn't get attacked for years after 9/11 because his popularity was soaring. The Congress almost unanimously approved war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and passed tax rate cuts with siginificant Democrat support because Bush was popular. Politicians don't cut their own throats to woo the far fringes of their own parties.

Before 9/11, for 9 months, the Democrats treated Bush like cat droppings. He wasn't nearly as popular (so it was safe) and the Dems were convinced a vast right wing conspiracy had deprived them of the election victory. Al Gore's continuous challenges hampered the ability of the Bush administration to even set up for business in a timely fashion. And of course the Bush administration had to recover from all the vandalism the Clinton administration perpetrated on their way out. Check out http://prorev.com/2008/05/dont-cry-for-me-arkansas_13.html if you don't remember that. The Bush administration did not return that favor for the Obama admin.

We just saw a poll showing large numbers of Americans harbor at least some doubt as to where President Obama was born. Most, I suspect, don't realize the serious ramifications if it were ever proved he was not born in the US, so it's just an idle pasttime to wonder about it. Obama doesn't help the situation be keeping locked away so many elements of his early life (his college and law school transcripts, and, if it exists, his original birth certificate). So Republicans face no backlash, imho, if they echo once in a while the seed of doubt that lies in the public mind. It is of no consequence, because unless there is solid evidence of a different story, the certification from the State of Hawaii that BO was born there is the final word on the subject.

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Chantal:

PLEASE PLEASE Democrats donate to the intelligent and charismatic Jack Conway. You will NOT be throwing away your money. He is tailor fit for the pro-Obama Kentucky, while Rand Paul is just too Republican to be viable.

Democrats, you are all correct. Conway can WIN this race. Start writing those checks today!

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Chantal:

Sorry I wasn't clear, I don't want Democrats to write their own checks. I want to raise taxes on the rich so the government can write the checks instead.

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HookedOnPolls:

Bukama: "Before 9/11, for 9 months, the Democrats treated Bush like cat droppings."

There was even a TV show mocking him. I think it was called "That's My Bush"

Chantal: "I don't want Democrats to write their own checks. I want to raise taxes on the rich so the government can write the checks instead."

Hell, the money you & I gave GM for their bailout is now being channeled back to political groups.

Transparent administration my a$$.


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Farleftandproud:

Stillow: Truthers were people who thought Bush knew about 9/11 and allowed it to happen to see his popularity boost. I never said it was a conspiracy, like the birthers say about Obama hiding the fact he was born in another country.

I think Bush did some wag dogging, and used 9/11 to instill some terror threats and the link to Sadaam and Bin Ladin that wasn't there. Bush mislead us. The 9/11 commision proved that nobody knew where that attacks would be or how they would happen on 9/11. I am still convinced that Bush's tougher stand to protect Israel than Gore would have, and the way radical Arabs percieved Desert storm, could have made America under a Bush presidency more likely to be targeted than CLinton or had Al Gore won.

Nevertheless, Truthers made up about 5 percent of the population whereas I believe that Birthers could be as high as 45 percent of the population.

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Farleftandproud:


I don't think that the future of the Democratic party will get worse in the South because they don't care for Obama. Southerners like their own kind of Democrat, just like Judd Gregg and Olympia Snowe can win over voters in the northeast, yet Bush was very unpopular here. The trend will likely remain in the south in reverse.

This year the trend could be so bad, Democrats could do badly just about everywhere, but I predict the trend won't last long, once we see how little will get done in Congress with More Republicans.

I predict that the idiots who voted for Obama but are lazy and don't vote this year, will start complaining once the GOP starts with their heinous policies. It will inspire these people to wish they had not sat on their butt in 2010, and just like Clinton in 1996, the Dems will probably do well in 2012.

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RW:

FarLeft:
"The 9/11 commision proved that nobody knew where that attacks would be or how they would happen on 9/11. I am still convinced that Bush's tougher stand to protect Israel than Gore would have, and the way radical Arabs percieved Desert storm, could have made America under a Bush presidency more likely to be targeted than CLinton or had Al Gore won."

Are you still convinced of this even after I refresh your memory about the 1993 attack on the WTC? Or was this attack a leftover from George Bush's legacy?

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RW:

Keep in mind, CLINTON was president then. Point being, the islamists were hell bent on attacking us. It did not, nor does it now, matter who the President is. Heck, militants with ties to Osama bin Laden tried to assasinate Clinton in 1996 while in the Philippines!

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Dave:

If Paul loses this race, I'll eat FLAPs tinfoil hat

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Nick:

main thing I see in this poll is a lot of undecided votes

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