Pollster.com

This is yet another self published poll for fundraiser efforts. It is a "LOOK I CAN WIN!" attention grabber that takes advantage of anything it can to sculpt a likely voter model that anyone realizes is complete bunk.

A good question is if you are this close, would you really need to publish your own poll? Or wouldn't you try to pull a Brown and sneak in from behind? I do not trust campaign sponsored polls from either party.

Agreed Niikeb,
One of the articles in monday's 'Outliers' column explained how internal polls often ask other questions beforehand that influence the polling of the actual head-to-head so unless they release the whole survey, you can't really evaluate the poll accurately.

Say what you want to guys, but I have the "gut feeling" that both NC & KY will be flipping blue this time. Elaine Marshall 2010!!

This is one race where it would be really stupid to go for Rand Paul. KY hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1999, it is time to give someone from a different party a chance. Besides the KY democrats have come so close in the last few senate races.

The thing I really can't stand about Paul is I saw him in a debate, and he kept telling where his opponent stood on issues before his opponent had a chance to answer the question. That is one of the most arrogant things to do in a debate.

Besides this being basically an internal poll, which it is, this was also done a month ago. So I hope people actually pay attention to that fact.

Well Kentucky is more conservative than NC, but they still have a huge democratic registration advantage. This is Conways to lose, and Marshall will win in NC. Yes, this was taken a month ago, but there has probably been very little movement in a month.

Flap, that's one of the sillier things you have said today. KY hasn't had a Dem in a while, so they might as well elect one??? Time to give the other party a chance? Do you hold the same views on the CA Senate race, or the one in Vermont?

Flap, that's one of the sillier things you have said today.

The list is endless. Check out some of her winners from yesterday.

Farleftandproud:
"This is one race where it would be really stupid to go for Rand Paul. KY hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1999, it is time to give someone from a different party a chance. Besides the KY democrats have come so close in the last few senate races."

In that case, I'm sure you were saying the same about the MA senate race in January. "its been about 35 years since MA has elected a Republican to the senate, so it's time to give them a chance." right?

The actual results to the poll were 44-44. This includes leaners. Check out their release for a laugh.

I want KY, NH and NC to seem close for as long as possible so the dems will pour a ton of money into these campaigns. I give the dems about a 10% chance of taking 1 of them, barring an absolute Coakleyesque collapse of course. NV, OH, PA, CO and to a lesser extent MO are the real close races that both parties should be pouring their resources into. Those are the 5 I will be watching on election day.

Rand Paul is a birther,the truth will come out in the October surprise.The tea party have hurted the GOP more then they think,America is beginning to see the tea party as a racist group of people who don't vote because of policy,but vote because of race.

"America is beginning to see the tea party as a racist group of people who don't vote because of policy,but vote because of race."

That's why poll after poll shows the Tea Party at about even in the favorables, while each major party is at -20 or lower? Or why they elected Tim Scott in SC-1? Or why they elected Nikki Haley (an Indian) for SC Gov?

Rand ( brainless) Paul will lose come November, and so will ( anti-middle class) Burr. There will be no "GOP Wave" ! Thank God!!!

Dave,

Don't respond to what is obviously a deranged individual. You just encourage his rantings and lunacy.

I see the liberals are on their delusional drug again. Face it you're not going to win any new seats this year.

There is a decent chance that Kentuckians will choose Conway over the elitist country club eye surgeon Paul.

Yeah, really. How dare that capitalist pig charge for his services. Once bobocare kicks in, he is gonna have to work pro-bono, that bastard.

And no more country club for him!

Only BOBO is allowed to play golf.

Dave: Like tea partiers, African Americans are guilty of the samething sometimes,i believe when a Black candidate is running for hire office Blacks do vote because of race,but the big difference is blacks don't run for hire office as much as Whites.The tea party is destroying the GOP,rather you guys wants to believe it or not.The Democratic party don't preach hate,and i really believe the Republican party don't preach hate either,but the GOP have let these racist group of people called the tea party take over they're party,which is so sad.

Conway is just another lawyer/career politician. He had a private sector job for all of 5 years- where he was a lawyer so that doesn't count. To think he knows what the average Kentuckian wants is ridiculous. He is the epitome of what the country is attempting to extricate from congress this November.

Rand Paul is a bit smarter than Sharron Angle. I would probably bet on KY going for him as he controls what he says. Sharron Angle on the other hand is a regular Joe Biden when it comes to things she says, problem is while Joe just says dumb things Sharron says scary things.

I guess I have a problem with the Ayn Randian idea of private sector jobs being the only honorable way to go, I can think of plenty of honorable jobs supported by taxpayers: Police, Firemen, Teachers, Military etc etc. It is ridiculous ideology to think that someone like Paul is somehow more in touch with Kentucky than Conway just because Paul has put business first and Conway has worked in the public arena.

Rockym92: "I want KY, NH and NC to seem close for as long as possible so the dems will pour a ton of money into these campaigns. I give the dems about a 10% chance of taking 1 of them."

Given that this is an internal it's foolish to totally disregard it. The generally accepted formula that should be applied to such polls is to take 5% off the topline for the candidate who commissioned the poll. This yields a 3 point edge for Paul. This is well within MOE for non-Ras polling results in KY.
Of course there are ways to manipulate polling results if the candidate is dishonest enough to ask the firm to use them.

As for there being a 10% chance of picking up merely one of these 3 races, you're assigning an approximately 3.33% chance for each of these races (or something like that). Nate Silver's model for the 2010 Senate races is squarely within the mainstream. It gives Dems between 53 and 54 Senators, depending on whom Crist, if he wins, caucuses with. He assigns the following values to NC (btw, he doesn't use internal polls in computing his percentages)

So, here are his %s for these three states:

NC...18%; KY 36% NH 19%.

The chances of Repubs running the table is .82 x .64 x .81= 42.5

Therefore the chances of Dems winning at least one of these races is around 60%.

So, it's a tossup as to whether one race can be won. That's hardly a 10% shot. It's definitely worth sinking money into, until any of these races starts to slip away. I think NC is the best chance to win, because you have not-so-popular incumbent back-bencher going against a relatively popular non-Washington-insider.

Nick,

If you owned a business but couldn't run it for some reason, would you want someone that has never worked in the private sector before or someone who works at a company, understands how it operates, and sees the day-to-day issues that the people are facing? No one is saying that those professions aren't honorable, I'm simply saying that I (personally) want someone representing me who understands what its like to be the average person in the district. And the average person in the district is not some insulated lawyer or career politician.

Dustin keep dreaming. So if Kentucky has a Dem registration edge why did it go for John McCain by 20 pts in 2008? Why did they back McConnell in 2006? Registration advantages, especially in Southern states mean little for historical reasons.

I agree with Niikeb and CUWriter. This is an internal poll to raise money and say I can win as well as it was done a month ago. Do I think the race is close,yes, round 5-10 pts. Do I think Democrats with two weak candidates in NC and Kentucky especially this year are going to flip these seats, no.

Elaine Marshall in NC, is far from a weak candidate. She has been the SOS for years, and won by over 500,000 votes in 2008. So think again!

Gabe-

Because a lot of Democrats in KY, are conservative, hence voted for McCain. Google it, you may learn something.

"Dave:
Flap, that's one of the sillier things you have said today. KY hasn't had a Dem in a while, so they might as well elect one??? Time to give the other party a chance? Do you hold the same views on the CA Senate race, or the one in Vermont?"

Well, you would have said the same thing with Scott Brown's victory in Mass probably. It was a big upset.

Sorry guys, but I have to say that the Democrats are much more likely to win this seat than the North Carolina one. Despite the fact that the North Carolina contest is fairly close, Marshall has failed to close the gap so far. Burr has pretty much been ahead by roughly 8% since the beginning of this year.